maybe I’ll latch onto this comment of yours to ask for some ideas on position sizing/money management?
Usually I simply do the background work and wait for a trigger. Then put a stop below the day’s low (if long) and sit on it. Like the Euro today…I try to give it time to go about it’s business. But sometimes at key levels, price stumbles and retraces…and the marjority of the time we don’t see days/weeks like today/this week. Most of the time price will make one step forward and 2 steps back…before going 3 steps forward…
It’s been quite frustrating (for me anyhow given the kind of potential this model has) to sit through a 2-3 R trade that then becomes a scratch…hoping that it would become a runner.
Then again you are correct in the sense that it’s the sitting that makes the big bucks…because the market needs time to develop big moves and that implies rolling over bets (possibly with positive carry!).
So the only thing I’ve thought of is dividing my bet into 2 pieces: with the same entry, manage one trade intraday and manage the other as a rollover and see what happens. The thing is…if I maintain the same bet size as before, and split it in 2, it feels a lot like scaling out…which hasn’t proven to be quite effective in the past…I get a full 1R stop when things go well and I’m getting a fraction on a scale out…so effectively I’d have to trade 2 positions at once…so I’m not sure (and don’t really have the experience or creativity maybe?) how to confront this issue…
Any suggestions will be much appreciated! I’ll actually stop posting videos in exchange for a hand here
It doesn’t take a genius to work out the broker shops are primary beneficiaries of all that unnecessary complex nonsense. And as a secondary pitch who are the primary advertisers & supporters of technical analysis instruction within the retail space along with fee based coaching gurus?!
I’ll take intuitive skills & a logical mind over mass model technical analysis skills any day of the week. The ability to work off a minimalist template using your eyes & brain as your guide is something that freaks out most folk but in our experience it trumps the usual TA nonsense nearly every time, particularly when operating a manual approach at this end of the retail scale.
But don’t take our word for it just look & ask around for evidence that all this fantastic in-depth study, knowledge & application is worth more than the paper it’s written on!
Virtually every business day of every year the results clearly demonstrate how negatively mass model technical analysis reflects in the track records of the average punter.
But then to be fair to the results, if there was a filtering process in place prior to participating, the lack of aptitude & psychological nous/maturity would eliminate the vast majority before they ever filled in a broker application.
You don’t need to peruse forums for very long to quickly discover that at this level the game tends to attract a certain personality trait in which the negatively skewed results clearly highlight those commonly repetitive frailties & incompatibilities.
Obviously there are exceptions, but they’re few in numbers & generally ones who are sharp, focused, not prone to distraction & generally sidestep all the usual hot air merchants, drama queens & nonces.
And you wonder why the brokers are happy to pack out the advertising hoardings & flash their pop up offerings at every conceivable opportunity.
It’s a license to print money.
It’s obviously frustrating & not always productive to take that route if you’re working with a tight or restricted wedge, but laine (& others who have advocated that option) wasn’t inferring you view every entry as a rollover candidate
But recently there have been aggressive, extended moves with shallow consolidations that would perhaps have warranted a closer inspection & consideration of that option?
One tip might be to look more closely at opportunities that offer up similar behaviour traits in future so that you’re only participating when the momentum shift is aggressive & smooth.
Whenever you place a bet into a move that extends up to or beyond it’s normal daily range & pulls back in [B][U]shallow supportive activity[/U][/B], look to give it a loose rein & see what transpires.
As with the initial identification & filtering process, any potential continuations or rollovers need to stack up & be judged on their own merit. So filtering them accordingly based on something like i’ve described might be worth future consideration.
One of the bugbears you’ve alluded to is your lack of time & finances
Like an awful lot of other folk that trawl these forums with hope in their hearts, you’re trying to play & win this game on a budget & that in itself leads to a lot of stress & anxiety let alone all the other distractions & pressures you mention.
It’s hard enough for guys with a well stacked bank roll & a clear head to stay afloat out there most of the time, & these are experienced campaigners with access to many more resources than you.
They’re also [B]well diversified[/B], something we (as well as the template guys) constantly bang on about.
It really is a fools errand trying to pick & choose a particular candidate in which to try & run or rollover your bets. You might get lucky every now & again but volatility (or lack thereof) will get you in the end, especially if you’re running stops inside that daily volatility counter. But at least your comment below appears to suggest you’re treading the right track on that score, that’s if you adhere to that volatility scenario every time you set your gambles up.
As much as we admire your tenacity, determination & perseverance, none of us would swap places with you. As Billy say’s we see this stuff close up every day & we speak to a fair share of punters right across the spectrum & you can count the success stories on the fingers of one hand who stay alive & kicking coming at it from your angle.
It’s a tough tough gig at the best of times, even more so if folks (& I’m not alluding to you specifically here) try to achieve it humping all that technical analysis garbage around with them, but as ever we wish you plenty of luck in your quest.
WOW! Judging by the length and content of your replies, you guys really are [U]determined [/U]to put an end to my video posting :16:
Well…so be it :60:
Thank you for sharing some thoughts. I’ve read the TT threads, so I know difficulties like mine have been dealt with before. And although I’m hooked to the markets, I’m not crazy enough to leave my day job to pursue a career in trading given my situation. Plus I have decent flexibility and can stare at screens more than I’d like to. I’d have loved to be a sales trader or an execution trader somewhere but my destiny seems to be directed somewhere else. Sigh…
A couple of questions:
diversification: previously in this very thread you hinted at diversifying amongst asset classes (FX, Indices, Metals, Commodities, fixed income). So I am doing this using the same trend/momo model described here.
Are you also suggesting that it would be best to diversify/implement various models? Because that goes a little further than I think I can reach…I could muster up some Value stock investing filters and momentum filters…but I’m not sure that’s what you’re getting at.
Volatility hints you dropped: am I getting close by thinking that the ATR measure is suited not only as a “filter” for entries (i.e. only trigger if there’s enough gas left in the tank) , but also a trade management vehicle? For example, if I were looking to buy this dip in Euro (I’m not, so hypothetically) we have the usual stoch. primer…and there’s also been something of a 1-2-3 through 1284 this morning. If I place my stop below 1260 I’m still within the Daily ATR range and thus at risk of a double bottom/false break since the daily ATR limit is around 110 pips from the high…so an ATR stop would be 1240-1250 ideally? In this view, it is clear how pullbacks allow much large position size relative to breakouts since you’re entering very close to the ATR limits (smaller stop) vs a breakout situation.
Am I on the right track here, or still in la-la-retail-land ?
You better believe it.
Those cheesy eurovision quality videos gave us all nightmares.
Right Said Fred are burnt into the recesses & will take an age to dissipate!
The girls hives are healing nicely albeit slowly but it’s a busy month so we can’t afford any of them to go on sick leave + it’s costing us a feckin fortune in milk due the excessive curdling every time someone inadvertently presses one of the start buttons.
Yes
No
Same concept, same approach
Yes
110 pips off today’s current high = c1220
But yes, that’s the general idea.
Although as you say, that example is merely hypothetical & judging by the lacklustre performance since yesterday’s closing ticks & given the time of the week, it would have been relegated from your hot to your watch list wouldn’t it.
LOL I get it I get it…I’ll whip up a few vids for next Christmas…hoping that in the meantime you will have forgotten about all this
Regarding the Euro, yes it gave signs of weakening today as it first probed yesterday’s low and slightly popped through it before staging a mild intraday rotation…and that already weakened the whole picture because in a strong trend, a prior day’s low wouldn’t be threatened, correct?
So already there, I wasn’t enticed to participate. Also, being a Friday as you say, and after a range expansion on the week, I was in no need or place to trigger another entry. And then price did what we all thought it would…fall through and trigger further downside.
So yeah, I’m flat and waiting for new opportunities next week. But first…BRING ON THEWEEKEND!
Ideally no, but by now you’ll be more than aware that markets rarely work to neat, orderly regimens.
Short term aberrations constantly impact & often temporarily violate the cyclical moves you’re seeking to take advantage of, but if the original drivers are still in play you’ll get opportunities to re-engage when/if your criteria & the dominant momentum clicks back into line.
Very important point you make. Prior day low acting as support.
My 2c is that (using this type of model) Friday’s are a no go in terms of trading. Just don’t turn on the computer basically.
That leads to Monday’s price action and whether to look for a [U]long[/U] trade entry or not? Given Euro is trending upward at the moment according to my primary timeframe.
[U]Daily Chart Analysis 101 as I see it[/U]
Daily candle from Friday [B]closed[/B] lower than Thursday [B]low[/B] + closed in the bottom half of the candle = Stand aside on Monday until the downward temporary shift in momentum has abated.
Mondays candle closed lower (Strongly) again = No trading Tuesday
If Tuesday daily candle closes strongly (bullish=top half of candle or top third if you want to be picky) then I would start looking at long trades again from Wednesday. Also preferable to close near or above previous days (Monday) high. Anything else and its time to drop the Euro until a clear stair stepping trend is established on the primary 4H/1D candles.
If that combination is your basis & reference point for participating then your assessment makes sense.
At the very least you’re going to need to see it generating momentum (stair-step) activity above 1.1190 to offer you incentive to re-engage the long side.
Sterling is wheezing & spluttering again lately & its combination with Loonie has brought it to the attention of punters over the past 2 or 3 business sessions.
Given the repeated heads up within the thread over the past year of preparing to take gambles on ahead of potential zones of conflict, especially when instruments/pairs are being pressured one-way, punters have been loading up short bets on that ahead of 1.98¾ & 1.97½
It shouldn’t require any explanations as to why you don’t have it on your watch/hot list, but that would definitely be one to look at for alternative punts darren.
I have to say I missed that completely…so watching this 15min/5min pullback right now as an excuse to get in maybe. The market is expecting a weaker CPI print today, which would no doubt accelerate Gbp losses if that were the case.
I did take a punt on AudUsd today after RBA seems content to stand pat for the foreseeable future, as policymakers appear considerably more relaxed on developments in China than many market participants.
We also have somewhat of a tight consolidation from which we are breaking out of.
Given the intraday volatility on that pair you definitely don’t want to mess with it whilst it’s cogitating & filtering data.
As Thalia say’s those already seated ahead of the spotlight levels will wait see how it reacts & absorbs that data & any other market reactive news. If the probabilities remain weighted to further downside just look to get in as it deflates back towards those busy order levels.
There’s not a lot out there at the moment to get excited about regards this approach, so until the markets begin flexing its muscles just keep your powder dry.
Truedat - and I was probably lucky to have the market take another shot ot the highs after the Oil drop.
In other news, Gold (a much better performer recently) has completed a 4H hook and made a 15Min momentum step through the asian high…so that’s me in at 1208.
I also got in GbpCad post-Oil surprize and post data (which was worse than expected) at 9950 after the market faded the asian high. Now we’ll see.
I also like EurAud shorts to be honest…what’s your view on the pair, if you don’t mind me asking?
Recent Aussie participation from the usually astute punters has been weighted via US Dollars & Sterling rather than Euro, which would be my preference too if my money was on the table. Euro has held up reasonably well over the near term all things considered.
But if you can justify the bet then place your money down!
And that was in evidence again during the past hour or so as gbp/aud turned over & fell through the tokyo lows on it’s way to pressuring the current year’s low.
gbp/cad is currently back testing the day’s low too.
On the subject of savvier punters, judging by the previous references on here, that particular group will be very much in the minority at most brokerages, but are their strategies & outlooks similar in concept & application? or is it not as fluid & straightforward as that.
And do you guys have much regular interaction with them? or is it simply a case of being aware of where their orders are resting & what they’re actively betting.
The most common similarity is a tendency to be creatures of habit.
Although like everyone else they experience barren patches, they manage those periods of drawdown with obsessive discipline as they do in the preparation, application & execution of their approaches.
Obviously we don’t interact with all of them, but we’re certainly aware when the ones on the radar are active & what they’re gambling on. Some of them diversify aggressively employing both automated & manual templates, whilst others specialize.
A few also spread the love around, diversifying bankrolls as well as models, but that’s usually more of a risk consideration rather than a secret squirrel strategy option.
It’s no different to any other line of business where you generate & nurture relationships with people wyntac.
As well as drawing on their own industry experience, most of the guys here have networked & cultivated relationships over a period of time. That will typically include ex-colleagues some of whom specialise in specific assets or regions, savvy individual & group punters who broker their gambles through the shops & firms they work at + fringe investors seeking opportunities to hook up with successful gamblers.
That, along with access to volume & flow statistics, participation data & our own preferred activity models, offers a pretty accurate picture of where the money is changing hands, what’s in vogue, which instruments & assets are hot & what’s going off the boil.
The simple identification & filtering approach discussed here, although a tad crude & basic, is the closest steer onto the types of behaviors that mirror that process.
Regardless of your experience, the template & framework is based on repeatable logic that can be quickly constructed, applied & executed according to your time availability, risk profile & objective preferences.
It’s by no means the only method of interacting with markets & neither is it necessarily the most potent, but it’s very decent plug in & play option that’s light on it’s feet & carries no complex or unecessary baggage
Well done running that gbpcad bet down.
Nice little earner for you there.
There was some discussion & a few visual examples concerning that multiple screen profile set up over on FSR a few years ago. Can’t remember if was Carll or Joe or one of the others who suggested it to someone, but it’s not a bad idea.
A leisurely flick through the 8 regional currencies at the beginning & end of each day will very quickly identify potential high probability pairs to add to your watch list for further examination.
Plus, once you’ve highlighted & earmarked a strong or weak region that’s under the spotlight for whatever reason, you can pull up & view all the relevant pairings on one profile.
Tried to short UsdCad yesterday with crude being buoyant and USD fading off of dull FOMC minutes. Unfortunately crude pushed through recent highs briefly but UsdCad failed to follow suit. So yeah I was stopped out of teh trade.
Today we’re seeing some mild risk-off again, as was evident by the Jpy’s retracement coming to an end and price pushing against prior daily highs. I left all the Jpy go though…Gbp has brexit jitters…Euro gets bid when risk is off (funding currency dynamics)…Aud & Jpy aren’t looking clean on their own so…Gold was looking much better.
In the chart, the green line a few days ago was my first attempt to take a long…and sat on it for 2 days with a stop first at 1187, then at 1193 then 1198 until yesterday the Gods finally gave me a break. Today I’m back in the saddle. I think this 1H pullback today was high enough odds…Daily ATR is about 20 USD yes? So we dipped roughly 70% off the asian highs + got the usual stoch primer to work with and we’re well above yesterday’s lows.
It’s Friday + it’s been another rock n roll week + you already got a heads up earlier in the week on those 2 prime set ups.
If you’d sized that gbpcad and/or the gbpaud bet efficiently & managed it/them into their weekly range extensions of which the former achieved 135% at 1.95 & the latter 100% at 1.99 respectively before pulling back yesterday, you’d have booked minimum 3/1 odds (up to 4.5/1) on them, even executing via the post data pullbacks on Tuesday morning.
One of your fellow newbie thread regulars banked 11.6% across both of those via their manual betting account.
If you’re operating an exclusively manual account you’re going to need to develop both discipline & patience to identify & actively manage the bets that open up & grow legs, especially if you’re operating a budget bankroll. Otherwise you’re going to continually elevate your opportunity risk to the point you’re suffering these wild equity swings.
There simply aren’t sufficient high probability opportunities in these see-saw volatility environments to stack the odds enough in your favour gambling this type of approach.
