God, I’m so annoyed with myself today.
I entered a short earlier this morning on gbp/nzd down at yesterday’s low & after sloshing around for nearly 4 hours I scratched it more or less at entry. And you can guess & see what happened less than 30 minutes later!
Down it slides for a minimum 1.5R so far :8:
Grrrrrrr
Hahaha, join the club!
That’s happened to me once or twice too. I congratulate myself when it meanders opposite to my entry & would have taken out my stop & I kick myself when it jogs on as yours has done today & racks up what would have been a half decent profit.
Just chalk it down & wait for the next one. It’s only 1 in a long series of trades you’ll engage in. At least you’re working the 1st 2 elements of the 4 step process correctly in identifying & filtering that pair, so I’d high five myself if I were you rather than be annoyed, especially as you’re (we’re) only just getting started.
& if it manages to slip further & cover ADR at last week’s low you’ll be even more annoyed.
stick with the plan, move on & write me 100 lines;
[I]once the tickets in the system I will not tinker with it until it eats my stop or nears objective.
[/I]
It’s another busy, fruitful week for this template with plenty of candidates setting up.
Have you got back into anything else stakz?
Hi shadowline,
You’re right there are a few breaking out once again this morning on follow through action.
Yen is certainly leading the way on this approach again this week.
I re-entered gbp/nzd on pretty much a mirror scenario of yesterday.
I contemplated taking it on again into yesterday’s close but held off as I’m still finding my feet & getting my bearings. I think I’ll need a bit more time to generate more confidence & obtain my own feedback through live observation before getting ahead of myself.
I’m going to try & post a chart where I’ve also stuck a line & black dot at the area I entered & scratched yesterday.
Still seething at that ridiculous expensive mistake. Lesson well & truly learnt.
Entries & stops are definitely a work in progress, but I’m more focused on my identification, filtering & general area of execution for now.
that’s not an expensive mistake buddy boy.
just take a casual stroll around this joint, you’ll see more [B]actual[/B] expensive mistakes than you can shake a stick at.
if that’s one of the most expensive mistakes you think you’ll make playing this game then you’ll be one very lucky man!
& the prize for the most original link of the week goes to…
I wouldn’t know about that, but considering the length of time you guys have spent browsing on here I don’t doubt it.
Yes, you’re probably right. I’m sure they’ll be a far more embarrassing teeth grinders than that awaiting me lol. Nice link by the way. Another thing I like about this thread, apart of course from the great advice, is the chilled ambiance, variety of content & cool music.
NZD isn’t being very accommodative this morning, but there you go. And no, I’m not fiddling with my order today
I read at the weekend that quite a chunk of Yen repatriation is taking place this month & earlier yesterday I heard commentators again mentioning a particularly strong 108.50 options barrier coming under pressure, which has now just blown up. I suppose those 2 instances coupled with a lack of intervention is driving momentum very heavily this week.
Going long Yen would have offered a much smoother ride this week.
Still, at least I identified it last weekend so I’m pleased these things are standing out so clearly.
Hopefully once i begin to get more tuned into the higher probability set ups I’ll catch one or two of these moves earlier into their journey.
In that case I’d tap soultrain up for a rebate on 50 of those lines if i were you!!
Ohhhhh, please don’t encourage or feed him :34:
He’s difficult enough to deal with at the best of times without folks patting his head & throwing him treats. You’ll never get rid of him.
If he latches onto you again just give him a firm nudge or two with your heel.
ha ha ha, I fear I’d receive another 100 for good measure considering how my original entry played out today. But they say you learn as much if not more from your mistakes as you do from your successes, so I’ll gladly hand over a small fee for that lesson.
Another day tomorrow & another week starts Sunday
A fair chunk of short yen exit stops are also folding this week adding to the fun.
Take your time finding your balance, there’s no rush.
By all means experiment with the output the feeds/squawks transmit, but play [B]your[/B] game, not theirs. Don’t allow something you hear or read to adversely impact your view of the deal you’re intending to place or shake you out prematurely from a gamble you’re involved in.
Use them to help gauge sentiment. They’ll offer a generic flavor of what the market is feeding off & you’ll pick up on themes that are coming into vogue or going off the boil which occasionally will assist with filtering & shuffling your background candidates. But they’re not the be all & end all.
Tune out any specific information industry entities such as macro, model or hft funds scouting this level or that, & especially specific currency interest because they get it wrong just as often as anybody else with awkward positioning, late entries, bad decision making, god awful exits etc etc.
Most of them offer decent wraps & session bullets which are helpful because they aggregate generic flow, spotlight levels & participation activity, but just be careful about drowning in too much detail coz it can be very distracting & counter-productive to novices.
Like anything else, they require filtering to tune out the static.
Yeah, you’ve got it.
See how you get on with it. You might decide, as might I, that after exhaustive observation it doesn’t improve or enhance the process. If so, fine. It’s not as though it’s a distraction from our primary objective, neither is it contradictory to the base template.
There are many different elements out there & the majority of it simply doesn’t register or fit well with some individuals. Others latch onto something quickly, it feels right & they’re off to the races.
If it adds value & helps to increase positive expectancy then it’s a bonus. But the way I look at it, is if you’re experiencing progress & success operating an approach that contains few if any bells or whistles, then why bother adding them?
I remember reading somewhere within the Technical Templates thread that the most effective way for novices to build their structure was to start with a completely clean slate (chart), use your eyes to identify & determine directional pressure/bias/trending behaviour & practice recognising the higher probability entry points to take advantage of that directional pressure.
In other words, practice spotting breakouts & pullbacks within a trend determined by your personal frame of reference.
Once you achieved that objective, add one thing at a time to see if it adds value or not. If it does, keep it….if it doesn’t, bin it. And be sure to try & utilise only the very bare minimum of additional tools to achieve your objectives.
That stuck with me, made perfect sense & it still rings true whenever I spot anything that I might consider adding to my arsenal. Unsurprisingly, I’ve yet to add anything on a permanent basis other than the stochastic, which looks likely to be removed in due course anyway.
That theme, view & practice is further emphasised by the guys on this thread.
Keep it clean & uncluttered.
There’s a saying ‘Like attracts like’
All of you who contribute to this exceptional thread are a testament to that.
Good weekend folks and thank you all for such quality content.
Good spot.
It spun a hat trick of (intraday) continuation line breaks today too, the headline one during early london trade & 2 following the data, although to be fair you’d undoubtedly have caught some slippage off the data trigger.
But it all conspired to slide it nicely into the day’s range extreme, which is common when they catch a good backwind. Still a little gas left in the weekly range tank (16%), but at this stage of the week you wouldn’t really hold that against it.
I’ll second that Green Light. Fabulous content
Yes, there are intra day breaks all over the Canadian Dollar charts today & especially following the employment data, but I have only gbp/cad on my A list as unfortunately the rest don’t quite make the grade this week.
This is one such event I’m going to be concentrating on whenever data or sentiment drives pricing on a day or intra week basis to see how regularly & what type of structure the pullbacks trigger.
Average daily & weekly range is already on my check sheet as a default reference prior to & post entry. I’ve already observed & noticed that the hook & the cleaner looking line breaks are nearly always in close proximity, but then considering where & why they set up I don’t suppose that’s such a revelation.
I’m going to try & compare the relationship between the hook & lines to see if there’s a theme or common occurance I can identify regarding different scenarios.
Guess what I’m going be doing for a few hours this weekend!
Doesn’t appear as though much has changed since Thalia’s update. Dollar is still a basket case, but I imagine is due a pullback of sorts at some point. Until it actually takes place I’m going to continue to monitor & trade the best set ups of usd/cad, usd/chf & usd/jpy.
Oil turned up last week also trading higher lows with a daily hook. 42 is the next high & more upside will definitely help the usd/cad short. Gold makes it onto my main list too. It traded higher lows last week closing up near the top of the previous week’s highs, so a breakout and or pullback beyond 1245 could offer good continuation follow through especially if it pulls back & holds the higher low 1233 region.
Nzd/jpy is down at yearly lows. It traded 140% of its average range last week, so again I’m going to closely watch pullbacks for signs of more continuation follow through.
I got back home late last night to see usd/cad closing out down at the day’s range. Oh what a surprise!
That area was the quarter 1 2015 high & a pullback low again during quarter 4. So there’s approximately 200 more pips downside before it meets the next potential stalling zone at 1.2500? if it continues its bearish move.
There’s some red flag data out for both these currencies later today so I think I’ll remain flat this pair for now until it all settles.
I’m going to continue with my line break research as it’s presenting one or two interesting options, especially when observing it on smaller timeframes within a trending move. What else would you guys advise I spend my time on to compliment or add to that line of observation?
What I don’t want to do is to drift aimlessly from one topic to another & waste my time on fruitless pursuits. I like this type of activity & it feels right, so I want to focus on improving my awareness.
Thank you.
Whether you’re consciously aware of it or not you’re already focusing your time on the most important aspect of this style of market interaction…structure.
We majored on it years ago within technical templates. It’s been the major focal point ever since markets began & it will remain so as long as there are price movements to plot & track.
You’ve got your 4 step process (or framework) from which to interact, & structure encompasses the first two elements of that process – identify & filter.
It looks like you haven’t yet adopted any bad habits so carry on in that vein & stick to the course you’re currently treading.
You’re going to be spending most of your time on the third & fourth stages of that process anyway (execute/manage), so if anything I’d focus as much attention on those as you will on the first two.
Concentrate on burning that trending or momentum structure into your brain until it becomes second nature. You’ll then be able to toggle back & forth between any timeframe you choose where you’ll quickly & easily be in a position to identify efficient, & more importantly, inefficient structure in the blink of an eye.
Because you’re not wasting your valuable time jogging down blind alley’s you’ll have it in spades to focus on that which really matters.
If you have any questions or require confirmation of something you’re struggling with just holler. You don’t need to focus on anything else.
I certainly don’t disagree with that observation. Although I’m quite comfortable & pleased thus far with my grasp of the basics & don’t seem to be struggling applying steps 1&2, the managing part (step 4) is leaving an awful lot to be desired.
Once again, I correctly chose one of the higher probability pairs & executed it ok, but the management aspect was atrocious. That should have returned 6R because the bearish structure didn’t come anywhere near being compromised, neither did it on my previous gbp/nzd trade.
I didn’t really need to be watching or actively managing it all really did I. In fact, although I’ve decided not to execute any fresh entries on it today, leading into the European lunch period, the current structure is still intact!!
I could just as easily have come home late last night & decided whether to close it out at the average range completion or see how things stood this morning & make a relaxed decision then. It’s not like you guys haven’t mentioned these important levels time & time again either.
Thanks for your feedback & comments though Sean. I’ll definitely post up charts if I’m struggling to get my head around the structural thing. I think I’ve grasped the basic concept correctly, but I’m sure they’ll be instances & occasions where it’s cloudy or tricky to determine.
only in so much that you formulated your objective at outset & stuck to it.
hindsight revealed the gamble proceeded to a common exhaustion level & although you correctly noted the structural journey never came under undue pressure, that wasn’t your objective when you initiated the bet.
don’t beat yourself up over these small, insignificant details.
if this is the extent of your issues going forward then you’re laughing mate.
you’re already several levels ahead of the vast majority on here, newbie as well as supposedly established participants, so I wouldn’t dwell on messing up a few bet management deals.
you’re only just starting out & cutting your teeth, these extended moves play out virtually every week on one regional currency or another & as long as you’re up to speed with your identification & filtering skills you’ll have plenty of opportunities to avail yourself of decent reward gambles.
again, your observational & tactical skills are fine.
you’re in step with the concept, you’ve highlighted & identified the key criteria & you’re spotting area where you can improve.
you’re not going to become proficient at this overnight.
it takes time to absorb that kind of experience, but you aint doing too bad from where I’m sat, so just get your stall set out & grind out the repetition.
markets aren’t going anywhere mate.
they’ll still be candidates trending tomorrow, next week, next month & you’ll be in a perfect position to not only sort the wheat from the chaff, but be able to recognise & act when the high probability scenarios play out
you’ll also become more proficient in trailing the movers & shakers because you’ll understand why & how they’re moving (structural momentum) & when they’re neutralising or breaking down.
keep the faith!
For me, this part is probably going to be worth more in cost saving & mental fatigue than anything else. I can see that if I don’t get a handle on recognising when they’re in transition, or as you say neutralising/breaking down, I’m going to get whipped around & suffer a lot of stop outs, which could impact on confidence & cause hesitancy.
I’ll use usd/cad as an example because I’ve been trading it this week & it’s on my A list, so please correct me if I’m not interpreting any of this correctly.
Using your collective advices & input on this market phase - it has now compromised yesterday’s high, which is the first occasion in the last 7 trading days, but it hasn’t broken above last week’s high yet, & hasn’t done so in the previous 12 week’s since it turned over at 1.4700 in mid January.
In my limited experience, I would now describe this pair as neutral & stand aside until it offered a clearer perspective, because although it hasn’t yet negated its bearish bias (last week’s high is still valid), it has broken the clean bearish cycle. In other words it could now be transitioning?
There have been several instances since this decline in January where on the 1 hour chart price has formed higher lows & even the odd higher high, but never managed to compromise the overall bearish bias due to the fact it failed to breach the previous week’s highs.
Until that happens I will still view this pair as retaining a dominant short bias rather than a long one. But for now am neutral until it begins turning over again or it breaks through last week’s high & begins forming higher highs as well as higher lows.
Again for me personally, this clear definition of period highs & lows (session, day, week) is making life an awful lot easier to identify higher from potentially lower probability candidates, particularly when filtering or shuffling pairs back & forth from my A to B lists.
ps, another good video!