I would describe that as a classic interpretation of potential transition which presents a valid reason for standing aside. You’ve got a very clear understanding already of the structure footprint & that will hold you in good stead going forward.
Remember, there’s always a very good likelihood of another pair, regional currency, commodity, index or share exhibiting exactly the type of background/foreground behavior required to prompt you to take action.
You don’t ever need to waste your valuable time or resources chasing low probability trash up & down the price ladder. Leave that tactic to those whose money you will be regularly pocketing when competing in the gambling arena!
That was its intention when it was first presented on here over 7 years ago, so the very fact you’re financially benefitting from it makes it all the more worthwhile.
Agreed. I’m sure I’m not the only one enjoying the recent exchanges.
I trod a very similar path when I began immersing myself into this stuff stakz, as I believe wyntac & a couple of other newer participants did. You’re going to really enjoy it & the time you will save will be immeasurable.
Judging by your attitude & the way you’re already preparing your working framework it won’t take you very long to get fully into your stride because as they keep reminding, there are very few moving parts to this process, yet the bits you do use are sufficient to keep you balanced & in tune with the market rhythm.
In my opinion you’re participating in the best thread on the forum by a long way & I’ve dialled in & out of most of them during the past year or so.
Good luck & look forward to interacting with you.
Have you shuffled anything else onto your a list this week yet?
Cheers sketcher
I hope so because it just feels right. And I think instinct is a terribly underrated asset, so I’m more than happy to go with my gut on this one.
I’m going to give it a whirl using the basic identification criteria to frame my background & foreground priorities & let the natural flow of the price pressure alert me when triggering entries. The average range percentages will determine my initial target & reference locations & I’ll just see how I go.
The only shuffles onto my A list this week have been eur/aud & eur/jpy.
eur/aud especially is cycling down again nicely with a virtual mirror image lower timeframe pullback yesterday to the usd/cad one I took on Tuesday!
It’s covered a fair percentage of its average range into this morning’s action following earlier data, but the flow is still clearly bearish with no compromises, so no reason not to consider it.
Yeah, sketcher’s right. The template is clear & totally unambiguous.
The framework is solid & robust yet totally flexible to suit your risk profile & time objectives. It’s the same process & tactics whether you’re seeking to place bets intraday or roll them over.
& that really is all you’ll need to navigate back & forth availing yourself of the typical momentum activity it’s designed to track & pick off. There’s no subjectivity unlike most of the typical technical price aids you see peddled around forums such as moving averages, support & resistance, supply/demand, fibonacci, several variations of pivots, price patterns, elliot wave counts etc etc….
Previous session, day, week, quarter etc highs & lows or big round numbers aren’t spurious or vague. Everyone knows exactly where to locate them 24/7. As long as you have them on your radar you’ll be fine. You’ve already referred to their relevance too in post #631 so you certainly don’t need anyone to encourage you to listen very carefully to what these guys have to say & their consistently repetitive value & worth will be proven to you as you progress with the template!!
It won’t take you long to conclude just how smart these people are & that you’re utilizing the right tactics. Linking your account to an independent results aggregator is a clever move too. That will supply instant feedback & highlight areas for more in depth review.
Nice eur/aud shuffle this week
I picked aud up again v/s sterling yesterday morning on an early london session pullback through the prior 2 week’s lows. Not such a pronounced move as yours, but both working & keying off the same solid & repetitive activity.
Ha ha, ask me again this time next year if I’m still breathing & solvent!
That’s a good point wyntac. I’ve no plans to include anything other than what’s been presented. It makes sense, to me anyway, to start with a blank canvas & see how that plays out first.
I’ve actually just read a few references & explanations last night & this morning on the Technical Templates threads about how those levels attract orders, especially if the session, day or week levels coincide with round number stop, limit & options traffic. That kind of helps explain why they sometimes react the way they do, either whipping around or extending into prolonged consolidation phases.
In fact I’ve been looking back at some levels on a few pairs where the price has traded on & around 00’s & 50’s & it does stack up quite regularly. It also links into & further confirms what the squawk & newsfeed output relay when they’re mentioning these levels. I haven’t heard much recently other than the Yen stuff I posted, but will pay much more attention from now on even if it’s only out of curiosity.
I’ll add that to my line break research!
Cheers. I sat here this afternoon watching the 15 & 60 minute hook pullback on aud/usd playing out at the earlier asian session lows cheering it on back up!! A shame eur/usd didn’t oblige too, but there’s always next week!
There are one or two on my A & B lists about to close out the week at their relative highs/lows priming potential continuation moves, so I’ll see what I can shuffle & stack ready for next week
Thanks for your input this week everyone, it’s very much appreciated & good luck for next week.
Please excuse my musings out loud while doing my start of week analysis. :34:
It seems the Oil supply discussions knocked the stuffing out of AUD and CAD but possibly a short term blip for the week’s open. AUD and Oil now looking relatively cheap after the gap so will see how the market digests the news.
If the fear/uncertainty holds then it might be time to refocus on JPY with EURJPY looking particularly tasty.
Openly muse as much as you like
2 or more heads are often better than one.
Yeah, if you’re unsure how to play a blip or exaggerated event then waiting for more information before taking action is a very sensible tactic. You’re not on a schedule or locked into a performance commitment, so you’ve got plenty of time to make an informed decision.
The process is king.
That never changes regardless the environment.
You still have to completely satisfy yourself you’re engaging with candidates that are properly identified, correctly filtered, executed & managed according to the framework & process you’re working from. And the objective begins with stage 1, the identification part.
If that’s fractured or out of sync then it’s no deal.
Move on through your candidate list until you find something that fits then stack it on list A or B.
EURJPY has got back up to the level pre-gap around those Prev weekly lows. An area where I’ll be looking to engage in shorts should P/A trigger me in.
EURAUD may have been interesting after the break through the Prev daily high but is hitting it’s average range so will leave it alone for today. Same for GA.
Fair point & a completely understandable viewpoint.
You’ve obviously taken a stance & decided to side step those gap candidates based on the overextended shift, & that’s fine. It’s like we’ve often reiterated, if momentum/bias/directional pressure remains genuine then follow through opportunities will always reveal themselves via the consistent set ups & triggers associated with this type of approach……ie, breakouts & pullbacks will continue to appear as cycles unfold in the direction of the dominant pressure or flow.
Average range works both ways though.
Although the overextension has been to the upside on sterling & euro v/s aussie during the early week knee jerk, the core pressure remains to the downside on those pairs (bullish AUD) [U]until the wider structural pressure flips to longs. [/U]
You might (could) have taken the view that the top end of that range & the corresponding pullback this morning as europe entered the fray, was actually the start of the intraday range.
Therefore the gap close (in the direction of the current trend) is/was a playable opportunity because it’s following the path of least resistance? (do you understand where I’m coming from?)
Some punters took that view this morning as orders have been quite heavy on the short side of that flow, [B]but[/B]……[B]but[/B], I still take your original point about standing aside & waiting for the dust to settle before placing those pairs back on the front edge of your radar!
As we often say, if in doubt stay out!
Whatever you decide to do, I hope it’s a profitable week for you
Yes I understand. Since the average range had been achieved counter trend there was effectively a full tank of gas in the direction of the dominant flows to the shortside.
I can see why some were interested in the value around 1.477 as well. Normally I woild be at the faiulure to make a new H1 high too(more apparent on M15) but not today.
Oh and the path of least resistance you mentioned in this context is a new concept to me but I’ll try to have a go anyway. The oil discussions created uncertainty when the markets were closed so to mitigate risk/lock in proft some decided to close their short positions. This created the upward gap but not due to buying. Therefore sellers at that aforementioned topping action felt comfortable selling into the gap and speculating that buyers wouldnt drive the price back against them.
I could be wildly off so please correct me if I’ve misunderstood what you meant.
Or is it much simpler…if we’ve exhausted the range in one direction theres less likely to be a continued strong push in the same direction. Therefore path of least resistance is in the opposite direction.
Path of least resistance:
Dominant background pressure is to the downside, therefore the path of least resistance is to place short bets into rallies or via breakouts to continued downside momentum.
Path of least resistance:
Dominant background pressure is to the upside, therefore the path of least resistance is to place long bets into dips or via breakouts to upside momentum.
As you correctly note, you’re swimming [B]with[/B] the tide as opposed to fighting against it.
Forget the weekend shenanigans or specific examples, the term simply relates to taking the easier or more efficient path to achieve your objective, any objective not just in relation to gambling. Google the phrase grantyboy.
This whole approach is constantly & repetitively geared to taking the path of least resistance.
AUDUSD has been under upside background pressure for weeks, so your higher probability focus & the path of least resistance is geared towards placing long only bets whenever the foreground triggers set up until the background structure neutralises or flips bias.
USDCAD has been under downside background pressure for weeks, so your higher probability focus & path of least resistance is geared towards placing short only bets whenever the foreground triggers set up until the background structure neutralises or flips bias.
It’s all about playing the probability card as efficiently as possible.
Yes I understand, thanks. Dominant bias, trend, pressure, flow, structure and now throw in path of least resistance. I guess i read it and thought “oh heres something new” but in reality it was a very familiar concept. Got it.
For what it’s worth grantyboy that translated to having a short view on gbp/nzd, eur/nzd, eur/aud & usd/cad & a long view of dow, aud/usd & nzd/usd when I compiled my premier watch list on Sunday for this week & nothing has changed since, well not yet anyway.
But I’m sure all you regulars also have the same instruments highlighted as you’re far more familiar with the approach than me.
Yep, those are pretty much on the button.
It would be very unusual to differ wildly from the core candidates due to the fact the normal traits that distinguish & dictate structure are so well defined.
Some great pullbacks into H1 supply on USDCAD and demand on AUDUSD, NZDUSD. Sadly I wasnt able to be watching when some of my normal triggers kicked off.
