Ok, so you know that unlike other popular forms of support & resistance, big figures & round numbers aren’t subjective.
And you know the reasons why you should be paying particularly close attention to them.
And by now you should already be aware how often they react & interact.
So knowing all that, your primary focus could now be zoned in on whether or not they add sufficient value to your usual modus operandi to incorporate them permanently into your 4 step framework.
If & once they do, you can flip the coin onto its other side & investigate the instances where they might assist with helping you to manage both your rollover & intraday gambles.
I was also watching AudUsd hovering around 0.75 & CadJpy at 84.00
A big plus & thumbs up for me.
you can flip the coin onto its other side & investigate the instances where they might assist with helping you to manage both your rollover & intraday gambles.
My god, the majors (the highly liquid pairs) certainly love them don’t they!
They’re attracted to them like magnets!!
I’ve dialled back quite a way over the past couple of days on period separated hourly charts so I can get a feel for intraday & weekly high/low reactions & they buffet these levels time after time after time. Even ignoring the session highs/lows, the 00’s constantly test & probe for what I’m assuming are stops & options orders either side of these levels? before either continuing or stalling.
I actually had them next on my list for further investigation having read bits & pieces on the Technical Templates threads over the past couple of weeks. But already I can see I’m going to have some serious fun with this combination!!
It looks like a relatively quiet start to the week data-wise, so I’ll look for set-up’s in the above pairs and then use the tools we’ve been given here such as previous days highs/lows & average daily ranges, to look to monitor how much follow-through & momentum there is, if any.
chf/jpy got pushed onto the A list last Wednesday kechel when it began turning over again off 112.0
It had broken the current year’s lows at 111.40 the previous week & pulled back to the 112 round number. It finally made its move Thursday, falling through Wednesdays low.
I like aud/chf too at current levels. If it can maintain lower highs underneath 0.72 I’ll have a crack at that one.
nzd/jpy is another probing the year’s lows at current levels. Again, another round number (74.0) contained the price for much of the week before falling away on Friday.
A lower high underneath there and/or a follow through continuation breakout will tempt me on that one.
Quite a few potentially high probability pairs setting up for next week
I haven’t really looked at any of the Chf pairs since the depegging to be honest Stakz - I’m still not sure I’d feel comfortable trading them but that’s just me maybe being a bit too conservative.
I like NzdJpy as well though… Let’s see what unfolds as the week progresses.
Really enjoyed reading your posts as well, you really seem to have taken to what these guys have presented to us, great to see.
Cheers kechel
I’m not sure my initial clumsy steps on here are particularly worthy of merit, but i try not to overly embarrass myself lol.
I think the main reason I’ve gelled with it so quickly is because there’s barely any technical analysis involved other than identifying & filtering the key movers (which are clearly visible with our own eyes), tracking them via the session, day & week highs & lows & managing via the average day & week range flows. Monitor the round numbers & keep our eyes & ears on what’s driving & influencing the momentum, & that’s about it.
They’ve clearly explained the why’s, how’s & wherefores many times already & so far everything they’ve presented & advised is bang on the nail. What’s not to trust?
If, as they maintain, I can make this work long term by using virtually no moving parts & without having to wade through a ton of books, videos, seminars & endless hours of strategy threads, then I’ll be a very happy bunny.
That’s why all the folks adopting this approach have such an affinity with it. There simply isn’t any ambiguity in the background or foreground structure.
It’s efficient, extremely effective & provides a continuous supply of very high probability gambles week in, week out. You’re not restricted to betting on or observing just one or two pairs or instruments & that flexibility is where it wins hands down.
You can scroll through any currency, pair or asset class & very quickly identify a likely candidate for the filter list. You don’t even need to know what that instrument is, just that it’s exhibiting the structured characteristics required to put it on your radar.
It’s a simple rinse & repeat process that slots seamlessly alongside whichever style suits your objectives.
Nothing to write home about in the pairs I’ve been looking at up until now – mixed action & a scratch week for me so far.
GBP rates tomorrow & some US data, so currently practising patience.
It’s been mentioned before in the thread, when nothing is setting up in your chosen instruments & timeframes, you either have to stand aside or look to something else.
Snap.
I scratched an aud/chf short yesterday taken on monday morning. Interestingly, although it violated the step process, the 0.72 number has successfully defended any further bullish progress for the time being!
chf/jpy was blocked again at the 112 round number yesterday & I’ve re-entered this morning on the 5 minute hook at the european open, but it’s very much stuck in the mud at the moment. Still, what isn’t.
My only other A lister (nzd/jpy) didn’t set up at all the past couple of day’s & pushed through 74.0 yesterday before dipping back so I’ve shuffled that pair & replaced it for now.
Looking at it purely from a H1 perspective I’d say we’re now seeing a bit of churn and maybe a transition as AUD, CAD and JPY break their stair-step form. AUDUSD might yet resume the short bias off 74 but 73 is a clear fulcrum level from last year which has already caused the bears to hesitate.
Maybe time to step away and wait for a trend to re-establish or look elsewhere for the higher probability bets.
My watch list is looking empty and I don’t expect much to get me excited as we head into the end of the week.
Hi Matt.
Yeah there’s no follow through at all yet this week.
Everything, including the indices is either bouncing inside prior week ranges or consolidating extended moves.
As you rightly note, time to keep the powder dry & mark-up points of interest ready for one or two regional currencies to slot back into the groove again.
It all looks very tired & crotchety out there at the moment
There’s still little bits & pieces of value out there, especially playing the pullback/continuation option.
Aussie is still struggling & if you like keying off round numbers just take a look at one or two of those pairings this week.
AUDUSD has rolled over again off a 4 hour hook at 74.0
EURAUD is re-engaging its bullish cycle on a 4&1 hour hook off 1.54, probing the current week’s highs at 1.56…similar deal on GBPAUD.
[B]AUDCHF rolling over again on a 4 hour hook at 72.0
[/B]
Although it’s slim pickings & quite frustrating across the board, there are usually one or perhaps two regional currencies offering up the odd morsel or two.
Obviously the engagement areas are style & risk dependent, but the generic background/foreground set ups are still valid.
I guess if one were taking on those aussie hooks you would be looking to take them through pending orders overnight. I believe Andy moved over to set-and-forget for a while.
Is anyone on this thread preferring to engage through orders set and left to trigger as and when? Or are folks strictly engaging and triggering during the early session on the faster timeframes?
Well I’m not as yet, but to be fair with the wide & varied choice of 25-30 currency pairs, indices & commodities, i haven’t really needed to think about the prospects of having to.
Even Yen, Aussie & Kiwi based pairs offer up pullback & breakout opportunities during the european & american trading sessions. I can see where some very good opportunities are missed by not being around at that time, which obviously would be snagged by placing orders, but i’m not particularly inspired enough to begin considering that option.
I’ll probably need a bit more time & experience with this to properly assess the merits & maybe it will appeal further down the line, but i’m not particularly suffering from a shortage of high probability opportunities at the moment.
My long-list is slightly shorter than that with about 15 pairs plus a handful of indexes and commodities. My broker has disappointing spreads for the minors such as 4 pips on NZD/JPY. With an ATR of 100 that’s only 25 times the spread which for the way I operate - short punts over a few hours with no rolling overnight - racks up the risk for me.
Maybe I’m being too cautious but there’s no doubting it limits the options.
He’s an irishman that goes under the banner of Captain Currency and shared the 3-Ducks method which got some airtime earlier in this thread.
If you’re referring to limits etc then I have done in the past, as have one or two of the guys who used to post on FSR. The UK/European based guys used to set quite a few of their orders into late NY trade on the Australasian pairs that were cycling up or down in reasonably established trending cycles, but they were heavily into rollovers.
Kyle, zilly & shona set a good percentage of limits, buy & sell stop orders. But I do recall Kyle & strobe mentioning the benefits weren’t all that cracky as there were usually opportunities to be had engaging via pullbacks anyway as Frankfurt, Paris & London came onboard.
I suppose you have to tailor your activity to your lifestyle.
If you’re missing an abundance of opportunities because you can’t adopt a sit & watch approach then you’re going to be more motivated to seeking out a set & forget type tactic.
