As you rightly point out, retail isn’t the only silly money out there lately. Reps at NE & BoM have been witnessing similar behavior from their more [I]active[/I] clientele continuing to short oil heavily from week commencing 4 april all the way through 38, heavier at 40 & 42.
Similar themes trying to short Dow at the 17730 consolidation top & heavier again this week on the revisit to 17950 & 18020.
[I]It’s alright baby, it’s a crazy world it’s a bit absurd![/I]
If I was looking at trading the London open yesterday. Audusd (long) or usdcad (short) for example. Should these be avoided during this time due to the news coming out from the US such unemployment claims. I would have been stopped out if I had traded. Seems to be a typical Thursday thing or am I missing some basic Understanding of the markets.
Not especially. You’ve usually got at least 5 or 6 hours worth of play before their data hits the market & price is just as likely to offer you a positive return within that window as not. In fact it’s evens money that your earlier bet actually follows through after the data hits the market.
NFP & Interest rates hold more sway over keeping folks on the sidelines, but they attract much more volatility for obvious reasons.
If you get a green light for a bet during your window of opportunity & you get stopped out, then so be it. It’s just one bet amongst many.
The problems become heightened if you fail to take bets that set up & proceed onto profit objectives because you’re constantly second guessing whether or not you should be executing due to this or that data looming up on the horizon. By all means be aware, but if you stressed out about every potential hurdle ahead of you you’d never place another bet at all.
Some of these trendy moves are becoming a bit crowded at current levels & we all know that at some point they’re going to stall or flip on profit taking/sentiment change/fundamental impact etc. Providing the overall structure remains intact just go neutral on any pairs you get stopped out on until it either clicks back into gear or prompts you to shelve or shuffle it in favour of something with more immediate potential.
Don’t forget Darren that a key ingredient of this model revolves around the average day & week range coverage.
At their respective extension levels aud/usd @0.7835 had tagged 100% of it’s weekly coverage & usd/cad @1.2590 had tacked on 120% of range.
You need to be aware of these intraday & week percentages every time you prepare & execute, especially when calculating your odds.
Many thanks Saul Reivers. Next time you are down in OZ let me buy you a beer or perhaps coffee…
My guess is if price is moving towards the 100% of the weekly range then its time to look elsewhere. Especially if its only mid week?
Probability being that taking a trade into that 100% or above is just as likely to turn against you as its is to move with you?
It certainly reduces or dilutes the odds of a positive outcome yes.
You’re seeking to put odds in your favor as much as possible every time to step up to the plate & the 2 major components of this model that help you compute those odds are the significant levels ie; session, day, week, month etc highs & lows & the average day & week ranges.
The reason you spread the love around a wide variety of candidates is to offer you the opportunity to stack those odds on your side as often as possible.
Same template
Same structure
Different candidates
There were one or two filtered candidates offering acceptably spare range percentages edging into end of week play, including eur/gbp. It pays to keep abreast of your range percentage numbers as the day & week unfolds.
This may seem a strange request but I accidentally deleted the best daily weekly and monthly avearge range indi that i’d picked up from one of the old threads trading this style. Ive googled it to death and still cant find it. Doss anyone still have it…it looked somethig like
Curr day range x pips
Curr week range x pips
Curr month range x pips
Prev average day range x pips
Prev avg week range x pips
Prev avg monh range x pips
Or it may have been this format…
CURRENT DAY 132
Prev Day 75
Avg 25 Days 70
CURRENT WEEK 155
Prev Week 170
Avg 25 Weeks 255
CURRENT MONTH 287
Prev Month 303
Avg 25 Months 570
It was very unobtrusive and perfect for keeping tabs on ranges…
At the risk of sounding intelligent - how about the CPI numbers for Autralia - could it be a ‘trend reversal’ type of data? (rhetorical)
Edited *Australia - yep intelligent allright! :31:
Virtually anything can be a trend changer & impact the dominant directional flow of a particular regional currency. But then you have very specific session, day & week criteria in place to help identify when that situation is likely to offer you a higher probability opportunity to take advantage of it.
& that same criteria is also used to identify a neutral phase as well as preventing you from engaging in fake, knee jerk counter moves against a dominant flow.
Quick scan sees EU, UJ and Gold on my front burners. With other jpy and aud pairs on the back burners where I’ll be looking for early week developments of respective strength and weakness which may bring a couple of other pairs to the fore.
Less chance of jawbone disruption but a couple of key events. This week’s Aud interest rate decision looks like a coin toss and usual NFP volatility.
2 of those 3 performed ok today!
I’m just back from a bank hol w/end jaunt & stacking them up ready for tomorrow.
I still like usd/cad. 1.25 is holding it for the time being & I’ll continue to short pullbacks, this time towards 2600 and/or intraday breakouts.
usd/chf makes my list as does aud/cad which has been doing battle with the .09600 round number since last Wednesday.
Final A lister is gbp/usd. That one is pretty obvious & being repelled today by another round number!
I’ll trade whichever of those set up preferentially.
Got triggered in with a limit order to the only one that didn’t behave last night and woke up to the stop being taken. Didn’t manage to get aboard EU either as Im only able to keep one eye on things at the moment. Might be that way for a little while as Im in the middle of a job hunt. All the best with your trading week.
so out of curiosity, as I’ve been informed via a different ‘mentor’ - react to what the charts are saying. Is it obvious when you are playing an “into” the s+r level vs. “off of” the s+r level? I guess I see a bunch of both ways. . . is there a thought process that says - yes play into this one or ‘wait’ and see if we can play ‘off’ of it instead?
Edited** my eur/usd play yesterday caught me with a loss - I was buying but maybe to tight of S.L. or inappropriate timing or to much leverage so to tight of a stop. (already mentioned 
)
During the Asian session, I did buy a 1-2-3 pattern at 1.1468 - since I got stopped out - you can see my S.L. was pretty tight 1.1450 just below the current Asian session low - how or what is a better way to play this??
**Edited 2nd time- I see a very similar thing happening ‘now’.
Good luck trying to run anything with a 18 pip stop loss during these current volatile conditions, especially in the asian session. I haven’t been around anywhere near as long as you, but I’m certainly more than well aware of how often price retraces an asian session move as tokyo winds down & europe cranks up. If I was triggering during that business cycle I’d be operating a different risk & objective profile, but that’s just me.
The primary theme of this approach is geared around directional momentum. I don’t know about you but I’m generating my bets based on that tactic, so I look to place them, as advised, in sync with whichever direction the price is being pressured.
I don’t observe support & resistance levels other than figures & active round numbers, so can’t help you with that question. But if there’s a potentially sticky area looming such as a big figure or round number that’s attracted a lot of prior action, they’ve constantly advised to try & get in ahead of such areas to reduce the chances of becoming entangled in all the conflicting order flow aggregation.
You’re like a kid in a candy store today - spoilt for choice!
Everything’s off to the races, even Perch Tird’s eur/usd hasn’t looked back.
Kicking the (US) dollar is still the game of choice of late.
It was this morning.
Not much is running on today, so it’s a smash-n-grab or scratch market, depending on your speed!
To be honest, at the moment I’m more pleased, not to mention surprised, with being able to get quickly into the groove of identifying & filtering the correct instruments to focus on rather than generating big profits from these moves.
I thought it would take much longer to become comfortable & confident with that aspect of the process.
Ditto, I’m not either. I now include 00 lines on my charts & am observing how consistently they match up not only with average day & week range coverage, (this morning at 1.16 on eur/usd for instance) but also how else I can utilise them to best effect. I’ve certainly seen them defending & shepherding price quite consistently on most of the high liquidity pairings as well as the crosses.
But that shouldn’t really be such a revelation considering how often we’ve been reminded of why they’re so important.
You won’t be disappointed in the results of that observational research.
If you were going to include just one other item of interest to add to the average day & week range & session highs/lows then that would be it.
Obviously you need to run the numbers to satisfy yourself & determine how best to utilise that information, (as you’re doing with the line break stuff) but you definitely won’t be wasting your time following their advice by heading down that road.
You could use your existing high probability framework of filtering, session highs & lows/adr & awr coverage & integrate the 00’s alongside the directional momentum entry triggers.
Look at today’s activity on some of the recent candidates mentioned here: USDCAD, GBPCHF, EURNZD, GBPJPY, EURAUD to name but a few.
Do you see how that integration adds value to your normal set up process without distracting from the primary objective?
They all bounced off round numbers via pullbacks in sync with directional momentum