https://uk.news.yahoo.com/woman-lost-nearly-half-million-104140988.html
A sample of just some of the many you undoubtedly took the other side of.
I read earlier today of wins into the £1 & 2million amounts being paid out, & that was only on singles US election bets.
The mind boggles to comprehend the pay out that a trump win paired up with doubles & trebles (involving the massive nomination & Brexit odds) would return.
It’s like the old saying though isn’t it – fortune favours the brave!
It also favors the smart & the sharp & if you’ve been utilizing both those attributes over the past 7-10 business sessions observing the key criteria influencing your decision making, you’d have been aware that yet again the majority of retail punters have been facing the wrong way on a host of instruments.
Stats since week ending 11/11 have indicated punters loading into long eur/usd (currently 81%) off 1.09, heavier at 1.08 & 07 when clearly the correct bias & your set ups have been hooking short.
They’ve been mirrored short (currently 79% & change) usd/jpy off 106, increasing noticeably at 108 & 09 when your triggers have all been glaringly long on solid cyclical pullback plays.
I’m sure most of you will be aware aud/cad, aud/usd & eur/cad have been the stand out candidates the past week & a half with punters heavily under water to the long side at 93, 92 & 90% respectively.
Mugs were backing aud/cad long off 1.0000 late last week like it was going out of fashion, so those of you who continued to ride that one short through intraday lows as per the set up, were laughing.
As one or two of these heavily stacked candidates continue to breach prior week & quarter highs/lows they’ll open up solid pullback/continuation opportunities. Just keep an eye on the big options levels (on the majors) for consolidation behavior & don’t be shy on backing your set ups into years end. Losing punters will generally push for a happy ending & throw even more caution to the wind.
As usual you’re spot on and it’s been an easy ride since Trump trumped everyone. I’ve since had the opportunity to speak with a succesful market participant who was also a former dealer. And a couple of questions emerged. When talking to these guys, it always seems like they are giving a history lesson on macro imbalances. But there is something i picked up and would like to debate.
I think it falls under the category “objectives”. You once said something like “the past 28-30 months of action show”…then “the past 60 days show…” So I’m trying to tie together the macro view with the shorter term view as (I believe) it is possible and potentially fruitful to “be aware” of the macro view and whether we are on the verge of a longer term shift (like Bonds currently? As rates start to rise? or the USD breaking out of 100?) and attempt to build positions with the trend/momentum model presented here?
For example, Crude Oil (monthly)
We have descended to multi-year lows…however, we have since consolidated and are holding the 2016 H2 lows, and are positive on 2016 thus far (evidenced via weekly)
So potentially, building a position from the base is potentially a longer term strategical play?
And attempting then to stay seated for as long as the broader picture will allow?
Now for the second question: it appears that the Italian Referendum is also headed for a “NO” vote. It would make perfect sense with what we’ve seen in the UK and US…whoever is in, will be voted out. However, the odds area already tilted towards a “No”…for the first time this year, the majority will get it right?
Thanks.
The Italian situation isn’t anywhere near in the same league as Brexit, so to that extent it doesn’t rank as a viable betting opportunity with anyone we cross paths with.
As with most of the EU, that economy is a basket case & the whole experiment is beginning to unravel.
It’ll all end in floods of tears & a lot quicker than most folks anticipate too.
Regards your potential basing scenario, in fact any scenario whatsoever…considering what you know about the structural criteria of this approach, what needs to happen either today, tomorrow, later this week or early next week in order for you personally to begin feeding into a potential medium to long term gamble?
Because regardless whether you’re setting up an intraday or multiple rollover gamble something (based on the framework of this approach) has to happen in order for you to take action, yeah?
When you click that buy or sell button the eventual outcome is totally unknown.
There are but 3 elements of the puzzle in your total & absolute control.
Doesn’t matter if you’re considering a bet lasting an hour or 6 months, it has to begin somewhere/sometime.
Macro gamblers have extremely deep pockets & a lot of them couldn’t time a decent gamble if it p*ssed all over them, so you’re just as likely to engineer a half decent bet as they are.
Needless to say I’ve been there. Beautiful country for vacations, but tough to live in based on what you hear when over there…high taxes, high corruption, complex and stale political situation, low level of competitiveness and the list could go on.
It seems their banking system is on the verge of collapse also, and the FTSEMIB is one of the worst performing indices out there. So as usual capital is anticipating something.
My bet would be that when Draghi’s term expires, in October 2019, Weidmann will take over and basic life support will be torn from southern Europe. Greece and Italy will be hit the hardest and Grexit/Italeave will be back on the table. Spain and portugal seem like better places - and that’s saying something! There is a core-periphery even amongst the PIIGS!
Am I thinking like a pro-punter here or am I dreaming things up in your opinion?
On another note, I totally understand your point on the timing issue. The geography (where on the ladder) of bet doesn’t matter unless the core components that give us our edge are being displayed. So on Crude, for example, the fact that we closed last week in a strong fashion (some would call it a bullish outside week), and that we opened for business this week in a bullish fashion and consolidated near a prior session high, were parts of the core structure that allowed for an entry. Of course, how far price will push, and whether I’ll be able to add to the core position, are yet to be seen.
43 on oil is the current (summer/H2) defense line.
So, as you correctly note, your session levels always come into play whenever you’re eyeing entries or exits.
Which session levels you decide to utilise is your choice, but you can drill down into prior day if you wish as a basic fulcrum & work from there. If not, you can use prior week. Which & what you bring into play will be dependent on your game play & risk objectives. Some folks like the day, others prefer the week.
Prior day (or week) will usually dictate your pain threshold (stops) & can be adjusted on the fly based on whether or not the move grows legs & maintains an orderly cycle structure throughout the (day) week’s activity.
Once you’re onboard you’re constantly seeking validation & confirmation.
It’s why the sessions & round numbers are really all you require.
If prices are being supported on & around these critical levels you have justification for your decision. If they’re chopping & washing out there’s a reason for it. Don’t waste valuable time, effort & money on contrary candidates, there’s simply too much choice out there to stay loyal to one candidate/instrument.
The sentiment gauges are merely aids to adjudge the current mood & biases & of course you know by now the majority of retail are complete numb nuts & should virtually always be opposed. These constantly updated gauges along with your directional bias & session (figure) levels will amplify your positive risk/value ratios & ensure you’re maxing out a punt whilst everyone else is busy trying to call the turn/top/bottom of the market.
It’s not the exclusive domain of retail though is it guys. Krantz showed me data at the weekend highlighting current institutional positioning via a couple of high profile providers, & their numbers were equally out of whack, most noticeable on Nikkei & Gold during the past few weeks.
Quite a few are very heavily short the Japanese index from +10th Nov at 1720-50 & equally long Gold from 1270-85.
Aussie also attracted impressive amounts of long bets under 7600 last week as well as on GBPJPY at 132.5 & 133
None of those would have qualified as viable background set ups under this approach, in fact they would all have registered contra entries!
True, but depending on what he showed you & who they are, it might not necessarily be representative of short term positioning or exposure. But you’re absolutely right, that sector is far from immune where losses are concerned
We’ve commented before on here that the 80/20 rule is just as relevant in the institutional space as it is elsewhere in that most of the generated profit emanates from a small section of the workforce.
Just as many of them crash & burn when they’re completely exposed to the elements & alienated from their institutional cocoons.
Bad habits & weak psychology are tough to shake, regardless your background.
So the next question is obvious…what kind of bankroll or shoe-shining is required, in order to access these upper levels like you have?
You seem to have breached the divide between retail folk and our mentors in here. Since it’s something I would be willing to pay for along with any degree of confidentiality required, I’m wondering what the cost is?
I don’t have the access yet, it doesn’t start until next year, but it’s not the capital as much as the results track record forexspot.
Although I’ve been punting 2 reasonably large accounts of my own with decent success I was looking to scale up significantly & spread my wings a little. These guys aren’t bankrolling me they’re merely the introduction to those who are/can.
I’ve been proofing my accounts to Billy & odds on since last year & based on those results & a couple of meetings, they offered me the opportunity to pitch to a selection of investors. They provide the wedge on a negotiated profit split deal.
The investors have accounts spread across firms such as NewEdge, Fixi etc where Scott, Jose & laine work out of, so the relationship link is already established.
It does make you wonder huh?
I’ve never quite fathomed why folks (even professionals) would even consider shorting into something so bullishly solid as that Nikkei example or longing into, & adding to gold contracts at the levels illustrated.
Since Monday I’ve noticed a steady percentage increase in gbp & eur v/s yen shorts, particularly the gbp pairing where everyone & his dog has been screaming about the supposedly heavy resistance at 139.0, yet there hasn’t been the slightest confirmation of a structural violation for nearly 3 weeks, & especially not this week 
It sounds like a similar type of arrangement to the one which Carll, Kevan & catcher worked their way into a few years ago with Tess, Jocelyn & their colleagues on the Template thread.
Your contributions are always very measured, astute & high quality. No surprise then to hear you’re stepping up a level or two. I was going to wish you luck mate, but you quite clearly don’t need it!
Happy days 
Just be eternally grateful there are folks like that who constantly provide the opportunity every day of every week for those who observe & execute efficiently to profit from them!
Very nearly stakz, the only difference being we were fully employed. Me & catcher phased ourselves in as we both had business commitments which required a degree of reduced participation, but we were all guaranteed a minimum time & income period.
They provided the full infrastructure including individual & tailored training & coaching, & as with sketcher, it was all dependent on successful live, proofed broker stats records based around the modules & templates they’d presented.
They were essentially looking for folks who were capable of undertaking a disciplined, structured, consistently applied approach whilst demonstrating the ability & willingness to follow clear instructions without deviating from core objectives.
Obviously there was a lot more that transpired behind the scenes afterwards, but initially that was the trigger which got us involved with them.
All 3 of us are still very much currently involved in the business too.
This was a great post Odds On. The wanders of trade management and objectives are something I’m still refining - alongside augmenting the degree of flexibility the various repetitive and consistent components of this method allow.
So taking a cue from the recent Crude analysis & performance:
on the 15th of November it might have been entirely logical to start looking “long”, as we had rejected those H2/prior session lows, printing a nice reversal day on the 14th and pushing through the high of that reversal day into London on the 15th?
But that’s just a “tight” trigger, within a broader objective. So the initial trade management could have been intraday, looking for confirmation on the same day as the trigger, that the rotation was in fact continuing (so in any case we’re looking to achieve a strong positive close). Then, after the strong close which was budding up against prior week highs, we could stand still and shift our objectives from a daily stance to a weekly stance, essentially holding onto the trade unless the positive momentum starts to come back down and pressure our entry & fail to hold the uptick into the week’s close?
So basically: considering the prior day’s high/low print as the first sign of transitioning would make sense on the trigger day and whenever managing trades with a shorter term stance. But when seated into a satisfying (whatever it may be) position, it’s no longer the prior day’s range that is key, but we can simply push it out a little to the current or prior week’s range - am I on the right track here?
So with Crude, I did close my long after we broke the inside days last week - turbulence on the upcomming OPEC meeting I think. And in effect, the week closed negative and so even from a med-term stance the longs didn’t make any sense.
Does this kind of structure make sense? It feels logical - but is it something you would also judge as logical?
Thank you.
Thank you for giving me the nod, I still had not realized that this was actually viable and solid. It’s always nice to have experienced folks approve our newbie theories!
I didn’t have Crude in my watchlist however. It was purely an exercize to see how to combine the macro view with this trend/momentum filter. But I do understand your point so on to the homewor
I had UsdJpy, Dow Jones, CadJpy. As a short, I initially had EurCad short.
The cad bets washed out after Retail Sales. UsdJPy gave me the green light to engage as it pulled back to the asian low on Monday and we were still well within the top part of Friday’s range. It also toyed with 111.00 but loosely. I scaled out 2/3 when we took out orders above the asian high. I did not engage on Tuesday because, confined to my short term view, I saw weakness as we tested monday’s low print but fortunately closed higher (and above 111 if that’s even useful to note?). I held onto the trade into Wednesday and that’s when things did get interesting.
We closed well above 112 and close to 113. I added back to the trade on a break of the asian high on Thursday ahead of prior day high/113. I scaled out of that bet again when we hit 113.50. I then closed everything on Friday when we failed to rally off 113. I suppose I could have remained seated becasue we have yet to close below a prior day’s low…
So that’s an example of how I manage my trades currently - but I’m not satisfied and I’m looking to improve.
So a tougher trade was EurCad short. I shorted the 1H hook on monday as price fell back through 1.4300 and scaled out 2/3 at 4230. I remained seated the next day until Retail Sales but then scratched the rest of the trade at 1.4250 since I expected the data to be pro-Cad and it was the opposite. I did not re-engage all week.
I have EurNzd and EurGbp shorts this week…I guess EurAud if you want a third…but basically a basket case of Euro. I also have NzdJpy long and Copper long.
On EurGbp for example, I’m waiting for either a tight asian session near last week’s lows, which I could leg into via a breakout or sub-hourly pullback. Copy/Paste for EurNzd.
How am I going coach?
It’s not a newbie theory mate, you’re simply utilising & applying the material that’s been presented throughout the thread.
Yeah, they were viable candidates.
Pressured/directional moves rarely accelerate strongly without letting out steam along the way.
It’s when the critical session/round number levels come into their own, because as they’ve reiterated time & time again, strong cyclical upside pressure nearly always attracts prior session low support - vice versa for shorts. That’s why observing unambiguous criteria such as that enables you to plot & track a logical, completely objective path.
Those opportunities won’t appear as often as you’d like but when they do you have to be prepared to lock into them, particularly as you say if you’re intending to take a (multi day) rollover preference to your gambles. Some of these moves can really grow strong legs very quickly & you’ll run a very inefficient engine if you continually take full hits on stuttering (false) moves without maximising these prolonged, multi handle runs.
It’s why this tactic of scaling out of winning positions is a very strange one.
You dilute your returns when things are bouncing your way & take a full hit on your stakes when stops get tripped. Surely the objective is to scale into a winning gamble, not out of it.
If I were you I’d very carefully & thoroughly explore the bottom line cost comparison between scaling out v/s moving your stops up on the whole position when the bet gains traction.
Again, that’s the gist of the tactic which has been constantly repeated throughout the thread, so you’re prepping it just fine.
Thank You speedbump - are you the same speedbump that was an active participant in another venue as well?
To be honest it’s a bit of insecurity on my behalf, because we all know it’s possible to profit (sometiems) by doing the wrong thing and take a hit doing the right thing. So I’m just checking that my reasoning is sound.
This also takes me to the discussion on scale outs. It may very well be the same thing (personal insecurity and frustration of seeing winning trades transform into losers) but if we get a good intraday run, why not take advantage of it, given that the 70%-78% atr level is at/around 1R?
My personal objective - if it makes sense - isn’t to swing for the fences but instead to have a steady equity curve that increases over time.
One of the veterans I’ve had the privilege to talk to said that in order to be considered for funding, it’s much better to have a consistent yet more conservative equity curve with VERY low drawdowns, rather than a higher but more volatile performance…so yeah I was attempting to trade in line with that.
Also, it’s psychologically easier to scale out and run/add back in than holding the whole lot. When I did attempt to hold the whole position, I was quite frustrated when price would tag the 70% and then deflate, and not kick back into gear. I would see price retrace all teh way past the entry sometimes or stop me out completely.
I know it’s most likely a horses for courses thing…but beyond having a lower overall profit, scaling out of a good intraday run matches with the primary objective of managing the trade intraday until it confirms sprouting legs (which we’ll never know until after the fact) which I spoke about in a previous post. I also don’t scale out unless I’m close to 1R so I’m not doing too much damage.
I might be totally off track here. I’ve seen ketchel (i think) adopt a similar approach and it seemed logical…but what do I know?
I tried different trade and money management styles out as I was going along. There were a few pointers in here that made me consider how I was approaching it though, for instance this from DoubleEcho stuck in my mind & I made a little note of –
If I ever find myself in the position of betting my own capital again I would be leaning towards rolling over & running my bets at every conceivable opportunity.
I would also be adding at every conceivable opportunity, not only that but I’d be diversifying across multiple asset classes.
So I don’t find myself scaling out now. The majority of the time recently, I find myself being all-in/all-out, but my preference will be looking for scaling-in opportunities when they come along.
I wouldn’t mind betting a lot of that insecurity stems from a lack of confidence in the identification & filtering process.
If that aspect of the framework is strong & you’re focusing on the higher probability candidates from the get go those insecurities won’t be so prevalent.
I’ve noticed you’ve struggled with this particular part of the jigsaw & although your grasp of the key components has noticeably improved, it now needs to be deployed on those higher quality filtered candidates. That alone will give your confidence a lift all the way down the line (including your bet management).
Like I said, you’re going to need to ensure it makes financial sense to adopt that scaling out tactic, especially & even more importantly when you’re applying it to intraday gambles. Personally I don’t see the value or the sense in it. It would make much more sense to simply increase your stake sizing & adopt kechel’s suggestion of all in-all out on a percentage of the ADR if your research data confirms a consistent pattern.
If you’re filtering your candidates correctly & only focusing on the higher probability candidates you won’t have the need to scale out of a strong hand. That’s precisely what the identification & filtering process is designed to achieve.
I can see how you might think it’s a savvy exercise when one of your bets grows legs & you start to roll it over into multiple sessions, but even then you’ll find the only thing it will achieve is to dilute a strong hand & reduce your bottom line.
Exactly. That’s one of [B]the[/B] critical elements of the whole set up & what we’ve constantly trumpeted from outset till we’re blue in the face.
Once you’re onboard & in profit those levels (in tandem with the cyclical wave structure – higher highs & lows/lower highs & lows) are your guide. If price [U]doesn’t violate the prior day’s low in an upwardly pressured move[/U], what does that tell you about the current state of play?
No-one knows what’s going to happen later in the session, tomorrow or the next day. Your job is to assess & adjudge the current state of play based around the structure & guides at your disposal & act accordingly based on your objectives for that gamble.
If it dips to that area & attracts support, pushing back up into the range, what does that tell you about the strength of participation in that specific area?
If it dips & closes out below the prior session & fails to mount a determined push back into positive territory (forming a lower high into the bargain), what does that tell you about the current state of play?
The ebb & flow of the pricing during its journey back & forth tells you a story about who is generating or dictating the momentum, where it’s coming from & where the critical fulcrums are.
The key session levels & round numbers, paired up with the cyclical wave footprint & average range numbers allow you to accurately & objectively monitor & track that momentum in sync with your preferred objectives.
If it’s not violating one of your key levels then you don’t need to do anything other than track it. Only when it does violate a level (& the structure) do you need to make a decision, but you certainly should never need to be panicked or rushed into making it because it’s as clear as day right there on your graph.
There hasn’t been much in the way of extended ranges this year. Brexit & Trump shook them around a little, but even those didn’t pitch or stretch the ranges to any great degree.
The average (weekly) range contraction numbers bear it out, so it’s always worth noting them in tandem with any clear directional bias as is the case with Yen over the past 2 or 3 weeks.
Providing the higher low/lower high cycles are maintaining an orderly structure on whichever view you’re observing them from, you’re good to remain seated. That will dictate whether you track & trail or not.
If you’re getting chopped around a lot then it’s obviously time to change tack & bring your all in-all out shorter term stance to the table.
In the case of your USD/JPY bet, if you’re tracking it using prior day highs & lows as fulcrums, then you’re out & neutral today. If you’re tracking it using prior week highs & lows, you’re still seated with prices locked at last week’s mid range point.
You’re going to have to compromise on stops/risk & frequency of activity if you’re looking to roll bets over using weekly levels, but that’s just the nature of the beast.
If you want higher frequency & tighter risk controls, then the daily levels will offer you that.
Volatility peaks & troughs are issues that simply have to be addressed as they materialize.
It becomes a lot easier to set up gambles & manage them when the volatility dial starts cranking up, & as you’re experiencing, things get a little frustrating & fraught when it dissipates.
What kind of time duration have you recorded your different activity levels over?
For instance, how long did you pursue an intraday stance for (using this specific approach) before chopping over to a slightly longer range view? & what were your results showing?
