Agree with Mr stakz, whatever influenced the entry you scored yourself a decent punt
If thatâs the case then youâre (still) thinking far too much.
Itâs a very common & dangerous trait amongst retailers, especially new ones.
Me thinks youâve absorbed way too much useless information from around the various threads on here & elsewhere. Analysis paralysis aka, information overload.
At this end of the food chain you have the fantastic advantage of flexibility over the heavier, more sluggish participants.
Itâs why weâve encouraged the use of this simple, effective & very efficient approach of quickly identifying a clear structural framework to engage a momentum biased set up.
The consistently successful punters we interact with operating down at this level of the playing field all function & exist off similar game plays. Itâs pretty much a no-brainer because youâre primarily stepping into & picking off high probability cyclical driven order flow.
Itâs no coincidence that the guys who get a firm grip on this approach & itâs application are rarely seen spreading themselves thinly across the forum!
In fact theyâre rarely seen interacting on any other thread at all.
Focus & application count for a lot when youâre seeking to construct something worthwhile.
The ability to avoid & ignore distractions is a rare yet precious commodity, especially in a field of endeavor such as this & one which offers tremendous benefits if you can side step the noise & static which continually emanates from the herd mentailty.
@perchtird for what itâs worth I traded the sub-hourly pullback to the asian lows on Kiwi that same day. However, I did not roll the position over because there was employment data out and given that my entry was âfreshâ, I made a decision to cut the trade at 7330 (a good chunk of ATR on the day). However we bounced current week lows and thus the long bias is still in play.
Yesterday I got my hands in some Euro & Gbp longs although I scratched the euro as it went nowhere as the NY session was approaching, whereas I held Gbp into today and closed it just before the PMI report. Obviously it made no sense to hold it into BOE/QIR.
Silver has also been treating me well this week as Iâm in from 17.23 and still holding with a stop at 17.32
The identification/filtering process seems to assist in âdodging bulletsâ for sure.
These shots were taken during the summer months, where evidently the team was directing clients to short-range opportunities. Can I ask whether it is realistically possible to compliment the trend/momentum approach with a range-bound approach/shorter range approach like the one described?
I have seen constant reference to âcontacts reporting bids/offersâ in teh screenshots so perhaps from a retail angle itâs not wise to remain on the lower time frames that much?
Is there a series of pointers that you could offer, for constructing range-bound strategies?
If youâre angling or asking whether weâll get into the finer details of the type of stuff Mayer, Tess, Jimmy & that crew were/are still involved with, the short answer is no.
2 reasons:
As you were privy to during that short example, there is a hell of a lot more going on behind the scenes than you can ever imagine & most of the jobbing exercises they base their short range gambles on are by no means reliant even remotely on the types of technical diets bandied around these places.
To obtain a full appreciation & awareness of why they bet on certain situations & set ups & totally ignore other very similar scenarios, you would need that additional input they utilise, & that simply isnât going to happen.
Itâs not so much the timeframes, in fact theyâre pretty much irrelevant, as they are with this particular approach. Itâs whatâs going on & playing out at specific levels on particular currencies/instruments (within the average range parameters) & times of day that influence whether they participate or not.
Like I said, thereâs an awful lot goes on behind the scenes prepping these gambles that youâll never see.
Sorry, no.
We donât advise partaking in that type of approach at this level of the game & neither will we endorse or recommend such activity.
If youâre intent on meandering down that avenue youâll have to seek it out elsewhere Iâm afraid.
If you think about it, everything they share is an attempt to encourage us to tread the path of least resistance, investing our limited time & money smartly & efficiently.
Theyâve stressed endless times how unsuccessful most punters are at this level of the game & one of the primary reasons the vast majority crash & burn so spectacularly is down to ill thought out, incredibly incompatible approaches & methods, the type of which you see virtually every day on here & elsewhere.
Most folks donât play to their or the markets strengths, preferring to adopt suicidal strategies, systems & methods based around stuff theyâve either read in some mass marketed trading book or regurgitated & spouted within forum threads by the usual array of armchair experts & ego inflated gurus.
Time is our most valuable asset & we should count ourselves lucky these guys have, & continue to steer us away from wasting more of it than we need to.
Just run through the normal qualifying criteria every single time youâre considering placing a bet. Itâs the exact same process each & every time.
Background structure of the instrument/candidateâŚ.ie; is it highlighting and/or continuing to print the momentum cycle flow of higher highs & higher lows/lower highs & lower lows on your [U]preferred field of view[/U] with no obvious prior day & week cycle violations?
Is there an acceptable chunk of the instruments average daily/weekly range coverage in the tank, depending on your preferred time horizon (intraday or rollover) to validate the entry.
Are you stepping up to the plate immediately ahead of any potential market moving data/output.
The prior session levels will fall into place naturally as the momentum adheres to itâs cyclical journey.
of course youâre a 3 Ducks fan arenât you? & you even got a confirmatory nod from that quarter to tick your box!
markets remain tricky (fx especially) but fortunately spreading a wider net has allowed to catch the nicer trends in indices and some metals.
A few pages back, Corpellan had inquired about the usefulness of options/oi regarding spot. Iâve gone to the same page you guys suggested and the only thing I seem to understand is where the more active strikes are (and thus where thereâs some kind of natural pin risk, where price gets sticky).
I fail to understand how to incorporate this into our usual planningâŚand more importantly I donât understand how to monitor OI increase/Decrease in a sensible way. OI is the amount of open contracts but we really donât know whether they are calls/puts bought or soldâŚso how can this assist in gauging order buildup or directional pressure? Or perhaps Iâm way off track and the usefulness is something else?
Thank you for tremendous support up till here and apologies for having to pick your brain yet again!
For what itâs worth I no longer incorporate that data or information into my daily checklist forexspot. I donât need it, & itâs not required to assess or prioritise graded opportunities in this approach.
I obtain much, much more bang for my buck marrying up the far more relevant & pertinent retail positional weighting data as illustrated by speed bump on post #913 alongside the basic identification & filtering steps.
In fact I decided to take them at their word this year & strip everything back to the bare bones of identification, filtering, average daily & weekly ranges, round numbers/figures & the weighting data & thus far I have absolutely no complaints!
[U]EURAUD week of 6 Feb:[/U]
Pressuring a big figure (1.40)
Background bias clearly short
No violations of prior session highs
Retail increasing a long (& wrong) weighting @91.3% on 3rd & 6th Feb
[U]AUDUSD week of 6 Feb:[/U]
Pressuring a round number (86) containing prior session highs
Background bias clearly long
No violations of prior session lows
Retail holding a short (& wrong) weighting @84.5% on 7th increasing on 8th & 9th
[U]SPX and/or DOW week of 6 Feb:[/U]
Pressuring respective round numbers (23/20k)
Background bias clearly long
No violations of prior session lows/breakout to fresh highs
Retail holding an increasing short (& wrong) weighting to highs @82 & 84% respectively.
[B]This weekâs standouts:[/B]
[U]AUDJPY[/U]
Kicking off the 87 number on Monday/Tuesday
Background pressure long
No violations of prior session lows
Retail holding an increasing short (& wrong) weighting @83% & change
[U]SPX and/or DOW[/U]
Rinse & repeat.
[U]GOLD[/U]
Holding prior session lows (higher low) @1220
Background pressure clearly long
No violations of prior session lws
Retail holding an increasing short (& wrong) weighting @78.5% & change
Hi Wyntac, I donât understand the Gold analysis on this WK: on last wk, Thursday it went down of prior day low and did the same on Monday this WK. Then printed an higher low on Tuesday and violated it the day after. For me the resuming long trend was after holdind last WK low (Wednesday) and clearing the last swing high at about 1235. I look it on 4H TF. Maybe Iâm doing the wrong analysis, just to improve my point of viewâŚ
Hello mc,
Theyâve referred to session levels as relating to both prior day [B]and[/B] prior week.
If youâre predominantly a day or intraday player then you may choose to focus your attention more on the prior [B]day[/B] levels, if however you take a slightly longer view of the landscape on certain instruments the prior [B]week[/B] levels will come into play on a more regular basis.
Whichever tactic you personally prefer to engage in will usually dictate which session levels you focus on more for that particular instrument.
I donât place intraday positions on commodities therefore Iâm concentrating more on the prior week (& current day) closing levels.
Nice uncluttered prep.
Shouldnât imagine youâll encounter too much trouble shuffling likely candidates using that routine.
Good advice.
To perhaps allay any confusion, your brackets maybe ought to have included the whole comment relating to the dayâs closing price?..as in; [I]Iâm concentrating more on the [U]prior week[/U] (& current day closing) [U]high-low[/U] levels, as theyâre the primary focus.[/I]
Iâm assuming you were referencing the current day [B]closing[/B] remark to highlight the fact youâre ignoring spikes or probing tests into & back from prior day and/or week highs & lows, which of course can & do hide a varied array of differing stop order objectives, some of which are merely testing the resolve & intent of opposing camps.
There arenât many flies on you folks!
And yes, I can see how it might have thrown a spanner in some peopleâs works.
As you correctly surmised, I was of course meaning Iâm more concerned with how prices close off the dayâs highs & lows rather than reacting prematurely to a possible knee-jerk probe through a prior daily or weekly session high or low.
Iâve seen countless occasions where that very action on gold has occurred only for the dominant trend to reassert itself & carry on regardless, which kind of reinforces the importance & relevance of these session levels.
If however the day closed in a precarious position that could & would put a whole different slant on proceedings.
The example just goes to illustrate why theyâve repeatedly reinforced & encouraged, whenever possible, to try establish a higher value entry by stepping in ahead of significant levels such as prior session highs/lows, big figures & round numbers & focusing in on the activity as prices re-visit & probe these areas.
These probing moves get strongly rejected many times right across the board & if they donât, which is undoubtedly the dual result of weakening participation & a build-up of contrary stop orders, then the dominant theme merely re-establishes itself having knocked out weak hands.
Annoyingly, I fell victim to it recently on eur/aud when it re-visited & probed the prior weekly highs up at the 4270âs. Not the end of the world obviously, because the momentum & cycle wasnât really violated, but frustrating nonetheless, especially the amount of times weâve been reminded of it.
Still, we live & learn & the more we see something play out as presented, the more observant we hopefully become next time around.
Haha, I did/do yeah, but thatâs part of the normal entry set up.
To be honest mate I donât observe or record it on moves into profit projections or stop outs either because one is a reason to see the deal to itâs natural conclusion or projection & other is a reason not to be seated any longer until the landscape justifies it again.
Iâm certainly aware than whenever I close a deal out either at a range extreme or a range overshoot for instance, the weightings are already skewed sufficiently to almost predict a move in the other direction lol.
But I assume you record the scratch data weightings?
Are you looking for specific anomalies or patterns?
Iâm curious to see if there are signs of repetitive behavioural patterns on & around those areas of activity. Started it last year & donât yet have enough data to begin form spotting the pattern outcomes yet, but thereâs definitely a theme which will probably morph into a decent enough footprint confirmation to justify the effort. If so Iâll tweak the risk profiles on the rollover opportunities whenever that outcome pops up.
Nothing too surprising really, & it (so far) confirms what theyâve said & continue to say regards the behavioural footprint habits of crowd participation.
Weâll see.
