16 candles in the '58 edsel'

The Lobby
1074

This was quite an interesting post, for me at least. It appears you have engaged in a “Turtle Traders 2.0” experiment and once again have proven that the job can be taught, if the people have the right aptitute & qualities you spoke about. Also, donating prize money to charity was a great gesture, nice one.

If possible, can I ask for further clarity on your last comment “it’s an awful tough gig at this level”. From your perspective, is it objectively tough because non-industry traders lack the quality information/insight/lack of contacts that might be essential in order to float the boat? I recall Saul perhaps saying back near the beginning of the thread that it’s more about who you know than what you know).

Or instead is it more because of what you said above: capitalization issues that lead to overleveraging the account, lack of patience & fortitude when the going gets tough, and (for the people that never stumble over this thread & the similar ones here) lack of a model that is simple & subtle?

I might also add, having the capacity to sit on hands when the market contracts as it appears to be doing slowly these days…FX volatility as a whole is dropping and this will most likely mean less activity and going for short-term forays when something does setup.

But let’s say a retail trader is able to keep the ship afloat and make some hay consistently, percentage wise…what is required to be “promoted” to the next level? What actual return % and activity are required in order to either get funded or be inserted into the information loop (if that’s even a legit question)?

Back when Wyntac was speaking of GoldTop who apparently trades an account funded by your team, does that mean GoldTop is trading from home using his spin of this trend/momentum model or is he working with further inputs/gadgets from your team, that keep his margins wider than those of the retail world?

Thank you.

1075

That comment has been backed up over recent years by a plentiful supply of data & research confirming just how difficult this game is & you only need cast a casual eye across a typical forum as a quick example, to witness any number the key reasons manifesting themselves.

Unrealistic expectations are clearly a major stumbling block, add into that operating via shoestring budgets, flaky/erratic discipline & temperament, a lack of proper direction & ignorance, & any one of those, let alone a combination, probably see off the vast majority.

Even if the typical punter had access to similar data sets, information streams & contacts they wouldn’t know what to do with most of it or how to get the best out of it anyway without close direction & personal interaction from those who do.

It’s not an amount per se, rather the story & personality behind the numbers that’s the important bit. The ones who stand out from the crowd tend to exhibit very similar character traits, certainly in our experience anyway.

They’re obviously confident, emotionally stable individuals (especially under pressure), possessing the ability to problem solve quickly, work equally efficiently in isolation or as part of a team requiring minimal supervision, bring strong math & programming skills to the table & generally think & act outside the box even when adopting, applying & undertaking basic rudimentary tasks, which is why they produce impressive track records, consistently outperforming their competitors in this type of environment.

They even share similar characteristics when generating a presence in these places. You’ll rarely see them wasting time & energy. Their whole demeanour is different.

He currently works at a tier 1 brokerage alongside 2 of the guys who occasionally post on the thread. When he worked with us he was office based in London working european indices + a small basket of UK & US stocks. He then spent a short 9 month spell in Sydney trading Aussie & Kiwi spot & futures as part of a diversified portfolio for an asian client.

The majority of the execution processes were/are automated, but as that is his forte it wasn’t an especially difficult transition. When he was working his own accounts from home he was using the same framework templates you see presented & recorded/evidenced a consistently strong track record.

The common elements most of them have presented & evidenced via their broker stats when punting this type of approach are the ability to identify & filter their stronger performing opportunities & when they do, follow rules with an iron discipline. It’s not as though there are a lot involved in this template, but the former is crucial to ensuring you offer yourself the best odds possible when stepping into the fray.

1076

Thank you Tess, but also thank you to all the other contributors in here - I now realize just how much of a privilege it has been to meet & interact with you.

1078
1079

with that user name i’m assuming you used to post over at fsr with Joe, Jimmy & the other regulars?

if so what are you up to these days.
i’ve enjoyed casually leafing through the content on there, & as with this thread, there are/were some very impressive contributions on there.

1080

One & the same :slight_smile:

These days I work for a data & news aggregating portal providing multi access information to the institutional sector.

Yeah there’s a lot of pretty cool content on the thread. Shame it was part of such a sh1t website.

1081

Do you still have contact with any of them?
They were no slouches that’s for sure.

Yes, it seemed very much out of place on there. Like seeing a Porsche parked amongst a gaggle of beat up, rusty old Lada’s lol.

Nice to see you finally contributing over here.
Hope you pick up where you left off :wink:

1082

I do as it happens. I speak to or see most of them during the course of a typical year. The only ones I don’t hear from as regularly as the others are midge, xerb & 2taps.

Sarah doesn’t trade much these day’s (additions to the family) & zilly experienced a health issue which side-lined him for the best part of last year, but the others are still very active in one form or another.

I don’t get too much time during the week, & it’s not as though the thread is short on quality content, but hopefully I’ll indulge in a bit of banter with one or two pirates from the other site who occasionally look in here.

1083

This is a really difficult three piece puzzle ya’ll. I believe I finally have two pieces of it. So stoked. . . cuz I believe even without the third piece, the way I am now seeing things. … I might even profit without necessarily knowing the price driver(s) and how they work.
Thanks so much for the continued contributions to this thread.

1084

Well it’s a man for all seasons which appeals to differing experience levels Perch Tird & it doesn’t really matter if person A finds it slightly more difficult or takes longer than person B to slot the pieces together, just as long as eventually they get the job done to their satisfaction with minimal damage to their capital into the process.

We’ve always maintained you only need to adopt as much as is necessary to achieve your objective/s, so if you can put the relevant pieces to work & generate positive expectancy into the bargain then you don’t really need to add anything else.

Keep your records up to date so you’ll be notified in good time if adjustments need to be tweaked and/or conditions begin to impact your bottom line.

1085

Good for you mate. Hope you continue to press on! :slight_smile:

I’d be interested what your 2 of 3 pieces constitute perch tird & why you’ve found it a difficult set up to interpret. I’m assuming your 3rd is the identification of likely drivers & influences judging by the comments?

Has your development of the process been along the lines presented within the content? or have you been compiling your own preferred interpretations?

  1. Identify the clearer developing or established background trending/momentum biased structure based on the weekly & daily cycle flows.

  2. Filter out the using the strong/weak pendulum where appropriate along with the retail positioning weightings stats to narrow down the higher probability candidates.

  3. Execute via breakouts or pullbacks utilizing round number guides, prior day & week high-low barriers & average range data to gauge likely intraday/week movement potential.

That process has spotlighted oil & cac as strong betting profiles for the past 6 business sessions + eur & nzd v/s jpy so far this week on forex.

1086

Hi corpellan –
LOL- so your statement number 1 and your statement number 3 are basically what I am referring to.
My eyes and my brain are now in cohoots on what constitutes “…. Clearer background trending/momentum biased structure based on the weekly and daily cycle flows.”
I would not have used those eloquent words, but more simply put, when price is moving, then price is moving. . . find a place to get on board with that movement. Some places / times are good to try to get on board, and some places/times are just plain ignorant. ( I kept trying to prove the ignorant part can work “if you know what you’re doing” … well I am to the point where I know I don’t know what I am doing in that arena and have let it go to rest. That leaves me with more of an unbias look at what is really going on.
So using certain logical markers such as weekly H or L, or even daily H or L or intraday/session H or L PAIRED WITH- the movement or momentum, is my new key view. I think my mentality up to this point has been using this information provided in a somewhat happenstance nature.
That last statement should be cringe worthy, as it is to me. … it means I have been no better than betting on red 27 on the roulette wheel all this time. Arrgh. But at least know I know.
So onto your statement number 2. I still have a ways to go and in time this will become important as well. As you have accurately inferred, the third piece of the puzzle, price drivers, I have not taken appropriate time to educate myself yet. I’ve gone out many times to the session wraps on the website, but it is mostly gibberish for me .
Finally, whether right or wrong, but I think it is right. I have done away with any thought of a limit order. If I cannot place a stop order at an appropriate place, then I must not be viewing things correctly. . and if I am not viewing things correctly. . I should not be in the market. (I think subconsciously I was still trying to pick tops and bottoms – even though I was playing a ‘shallow pullback’. . . it would inevitably not be the ‘right’ shallow pullback, and the position would go against me seemingly all the time. I believe with a ‘generous’ stop order, I will no longer get sucked into that stuff. And besides, it looks to me like with this approach, there should be very minimal drawdown?
Again thanks for your contributions corpellan, and everyone.

1087

Jolly good.
As laine remarked, folks learn & absorb stuff at different stages of the process, whilst others for whatever reason simply don’t or can’t get it at all no matter how straightforward it is. So the fact you’re finally getting it sorted in your head in a way that offers you more clarity, is a good thing. Well done for persevering!

We’ve always maintained that with this specific type of approach, the less you use the better the outcome & nothing will alter our view on that score.

With so few moving parts there’s less that can go wrong, providing of course the core of what you’re utilizing to execute your deals is solid, logical & consistent – which this is.

You’ll hear no disagreement from us on that score.

Well, given the guidelines you’re using (prior session highs-lows) to assist with your positioning & management, you certainly have a clear heads up when things are either stalling or exhausting. That will offer you time & clarity in assessing whether you want to scratch a fresh entry or pull up stops on rollover bets. It’s obviously not an exact science, & occasionally you’ll end up prematurely pulling a deal, but in the main it generally keeps you out of harms way & maximises a strong, aggressive run.

1098

GBP 18.4.17.jpg700×281 25.7 KB

One of those fortunate moments in my trading life. Identification & filtering pointed me to GBP strength this week…usual analysis and foreground mapping. I fluffed up a bit on EurGbp, closing the first position and reducing risk just in case…then re-entered more or less at the same level after the market came back down.

GbpUsd didn’t stop me out on the spike (it almost did) but like I said…one of those fortunate moments.

I trailed via the 1Min peak/trough cycles when we started pressing 120-150% ATR and after the final stop hunt (which I wasn’t at screens to see) exited since we’ve printed 171% of the weekly range in 1day, and 430% of daily ATR!

To be fair, I’m also in USDJPY which is going well but nothing to write home about.

Thank you everyone once again for having drilled this process into me!

1099

When you’re prepping correctly & constantly positioning yourself the correct side of the probability flows you’re going to get your fair share of good fortune when the cards deal these kinds of hands.
Obviously, the flip side will occasionally stop you out too, but it won’t be because you read the flows incorrectly.

You make your own luck in this game, but it greases the wheels much more efficiently when you possess a solid, consistent template to bring to the table as you’re slowly beginning to find out :wink:

Enjoy your profits & well done for placing yourself in that situation in the first place.

1100

Yen is still the golden bollox of late & no mistake.

Every time it’s printed fresh highs, particularly v/s AUD CAD & EURO, which have been the stand out performers, the broker positional weightings have spiked indicating strong reversal positioning. A case of patiently waiting for the usual continuation set ups to begin rolling over before ensuring a decent enough percentage of average range is available, & step back into the dominant flow.

EURO will undoubtedly have neutralised a few add-in stakes from late last week during this mornings action, violating thursday & friday’s highs, but the other 2 are still chugging along handsomely.

CAD/JPY positions eased back before the w/end to just under two thirds long but it unsurprisingly spiked again earlier this morning to +87.4% on the approach to 82.0 & obligingly clicked back smoothly into short continuation mode as europe came onboard.

AUD/JPY behaved similarly on the approach to 83.0 but the spike wasn’t as dramatic. Having said that, unlike CAD, it’s struggled to put monday’s & last week’s lows in the rear view mirror thus far.

Nice bonus to start the week forexspot :slight_smile:

1101

the more i observe the data the more these common behavioural patterns unfold.
it was exactly the same story the other week on oil & cac.

oil data weightings especially spiked, as both recorded extreme short readings whilst extending to fresh highs. the reverse was also noticeable when they began exhausting.

both those candidates positional weightings highlighted the behavioural changes all through week commencing April 10, which continued into this week as punters late to the party as usual, began loosening their short exposure recording a neutral bias read.
this morning oil is registering a slight long weighting as is cac.

as the guys have said, that’s often a pretty good sign we need to be either betting the opposite way or scaling out & going flat after a decent momentum leg.

1102

All good things come to those who wait!

& right on cue oil trading with a recent heavy tone slips to fresh intraday & weekly lows :slight_smile:

1103

Looking at their corresponding charts, those 2 very regularly dance the [I]round number shuffle![/I]

And as the retail broker positional data registers & presents skewed client biases in those scenarios, the higher tiered providers tell the true story, which supports your notion of aggressively opposing moves highlighting currencies or pairs that are clearly out of whack with current flows.

1104

As you’re no doubt well aware, that dance is popular right across the spectrum.

They’ve proven to stand the test of time, certainly when using them in conjunction with daily & weekly range data. It merely makes the decision process a lot simpler when managing bets post-entry, especially on certain crosses that respect those levels on a very consistent basis, which is why they’ve formed the core of this & one or two other successful approaches down through the years.

They’re also pretty accurate exit-scratch prompts too when utilised in tandem with the high-low/low-high cycles & prior session levels.

If something aint broke then it doesn’t need fixing.
No point reinventing a wheel when the original works perfectly adequately.