The larger range crosses love them to bits, which i assume is what you were referring to.
As is the case most months, if you were just punting directionally via the filter & were limited to having only those up on your radar, you’d be like a kid in a sweetie shop.
Jack Mason has been earning his split percentage of Krantz’s wedge primarily punting them via dominant flow only on the big gun crosses for the past 4 years.
You can count the times where the previous level gets snapped after entry before the next ones get hit when triggering with dominant flow on the fingers of both hands. Add in sufficient daily/weekly range in the tank to justify the bet & it amps up the odds even more.
And to think this stuff was being visibly & actively pushed 10 years ago on here on the other thread.
I was mate yeah, as per the grid stakz posted yesterday.
The stats feedback Krantz generated from punters confirmed, & still continues to, much bigger bang for your buck when betting (filtered) directional flow via the round number ladders by the very virtue of the extended daily & weekly range percentages. Sure, they’ve contracted marginally over the past 2-3 years, but still remain a workable play in this type of approach.
They’ve always tended to run a little further in trend mode too compared to the majors & reduced range pairings. It still only defaults to a major or inferior range pair when the strong/weak pendulum dictates, but over the past 18 months that scenario is the exception rather than the rule.
pound/aus 71 to 75, 136% of weekly range
euro/kiwi 57 to 60, 112% of weekly range
euro/aus 45 to 49, 160% of weekly range
pound/yen 144 to 146 76% of weekly range
4 of the 6 big gun crosses in your grid this week pitched from & to round numbers/figures & of the remaining 2, 1 pitched cleanly off it tuesday via a shallow pullback from the prior week high, easing off today up at +92% of weekly range.
higher probability filtered dominant flow
round numbers/figures
daily/weekly range percentages
session highs & lows
repetitive themes keying off logical, unambiguous data.
this isn’t just any data, this is marks & spencer data!
Bunches of luvverly stops + options defence levels, which are just as likely to get violated as they are to hold, hence the advice to engage ahead of, & trade into those key figures wherever possible in strong momentum moves to avoid getting prematurely shaken out in any potential whippy, chaotic price action.
It’s prevalent with those who come to the game totally unprepared mentally, practically & financially. They tend to possess flaky, non-existent discipline with no framework or structure from which to operate or key off.
If you’re directionless without a solid routine that stands up positively to the rigours of an ever evolving marketplace then your confidence will take a hit. That manifests itself in your activity footprint. Fortunately, those aren’t symptoms you lot will ever have to suffer from.
And neither should you, because every time you open up your graphs & dial into your execution terminals, from the identification & filtering process right through to the exit of each bet whenever that might be, you have a well drilled, set routine to follow which covers everything & can be applied across any & all instrument classes you choose to bet on.
That’s why we advised you keep detailed records & data of the activity you undertake. That element of the process in this particular approach will usually isolate much of any inconsistencies or weaknesses at the identification & filtering stage. You’re then better placed to quickly adjust or tweak that aspect to strengthen that cog within the wheel.
You’re not wrong on that score. I took encouragement from sketcher’s foray into stocks & like him, have been working with a scanner.
Obviously dependent on market forces/conditions, it filters out potential bets from over 250 stocks & I then manually overlay the template structure to whittle them down to the best 2 or 3 to complement the fx, commodities & indices opportunities.
As you say, once you’ve identified the higher probability choices it’s the very same process whichever sector of the market is tracked & filtered.
What stocks have been on the short list recently? I’m assuming that you’re looking for bets rolling over several days rather than intraday opportunities, and focusing on pairs with high volume and low spreads?
The recent uptick in ranges has also allowed for a tad more activity & the occasional pyramid. I’m quite satisfied with this little “plug & play” model, even though I’ve put my own spin on the filtering process.
Actually I wanted to run this past you because I’ve been brainstorming a tad with a contact of mine that has had a successful career in the industry. The filtering, as you’ve pointed us to, is something of an “absolute momentum” comparison if I may? Essentially looking to buy the leaders and sell the laggards.
What I’ve done is a volatility scaling of this momentum. Essentially the leader is the one that’s pushing the strongest given it’s own volatility. So within FX this hardly ever changes things (although it does allow to scout out rising stars quicker, for example Kiwi this week), but when starting to compare FX vs. other asset classes it becomes necessary (imho) in order to effectively compare apples to apples.
It also helps address the various dimensions of the market better (price, volatility, time). It’s been an easy & logical task due to the fact that you guys have had us working with ATR since day 1.
Regarding the time dimension, I think you’ve also alluded to this by pointing us towards “shallow consolidations” in line with momentum. I may be the last one to catch onto this but the shallow consolidation would mean that price is “accepting” the new level, rather than rejecting it quickly. This would also logically mean that during retracements to key levels, we’d like to see a different behaviour: we’d want to see price reject the level quickly.
I’m actually in the middle of working on a multi-radar set up Matt with a guy double 6 & apache introduced me to. I’m looking to take their identification/filtering template & introduce a layered intraday option which grades the better performing stocks pre-open primarily for that specific purpose, whilst rolling the traditional movers over into multi-day bets.
I’m very curious to hear what your contacts thoughts on it are because it’s an incredibly straightforward element of the process, as are all the other succinct elements.
Nothing groundbreaking, of course. Just an extension of the logic that we’ve been using in FX. He was basically saying that market participants express their views in teh most efficient way possible. If for example we want to take a view on the China slowdown/rotation out of industral metals and into services/recent impact on commodities then Aussie is a natural proxy, which has been hit also by it’s own domestic data recently. But AudUsd may not be the best bet. You’ve taught us to always seek max value by playing Aud vs. something strong (like Gbp this week too).
It has become “second nature” to do this in FX…and I was just trying to expand the concept. For example long AAPL/short Copper. Risk-on trade which should benefit from buoyant equities as well as the issues in the metals complex. But it’s also a pro-Volatility trade with Vix being so low. In case of a sell-off, Copper 's already in a downtrend whereas AAPL should resist the negative pull being a leader of the pack.
So in order to compare apples to apples, which sort of open up funky spread trades like this, it was suggested to simply volatility scale the performance of each asset. That way the performance is volatility-adjusted performance and equities, with their volatility, can be compared to FX.
What they’ve constantly advised us to do is simply identify a strong and/or weak performer within its peer group, filter the higher probability candidate using the accompanying tool sets & get aboard via one of two consistently productive triggers.
Well that’s how I’ve understood it anyway & I’m not in any way unhappy with the results of that process.
No disrespects forexspot but you’ve struggled quite a bit with this concept/process all the way through the thread & perhaps loading more onto your plate than is really necessary might well be contributing to that struggle?
A lot of your posts often resemble those of an analyst’s view of proceedings. Nothing wrong with that of course except for the fact these guys have commented on quite a few occasions they’ve yet to butt heads with one that makes any money.
Obviously the alternative you’ve highlighted is one (other) choice, but personally I’d prefer the simpler & much more visual option, but to each their own.
They’ve also suggested to us on more than one occasion that “what can’t speak can’t lie” & if there are any anomalies or inconsistencies with these cross asset relationships (of which they have suggested there are many on a regular basis), then we default to those pretty coloured bars on the chart terminal as & when they begin exhibiting the typical behaviour traits consistent with the characteristics presented in their content.
Might just be me, but i’m not a great lover of working harder than is necessary to achieve my objectives. I much prefer the alternative option of working smart(er). And if there’s a potentially higher probability set up bubbling away on the back burner from whichever financial grouping i’m scanning, I’ll spot it when I toggle through on my twice daily visit (which usually takes me 15 minutes max).
Yeah but that efficiency & value is constantly being juggled & computed by the aggregated input of all the differing influences.
Doesn’t matter who is monitoring & tracking a currency pair such as AUDUSD in your example. Be it a major bank desk, a juggernaut institutional fund or a part-time home speculator. Within a cats whisker or two, everyone is seeing the same price criss-cross the same levels at every stage of its journey.
All of the relevant economic data & indicators, investor & analyst opinions, speculator sentiment, rumour mongering & proxy influences will constantly be absorbed, prioritized, processed & presented via the price chart, which is a direct reflection of the cumulative result of all that information.
The only thing the participants of this thread are interested in are the occasions where that aggregated view manifests itself via short to medium term dominant flow, & when it exhausts either temporarily or permanently, observed by its interaction with daily & weekly high-low levels, because they are the unambiguous gauges of progression or deflection.
During its constantly evolving journey there will be revisions & updates in all of those indicators & opinions, some of them minor, some of them major but no-one, regardless of their stature within the industry or financial standing, will have the remotest clue where it’s going next until it begins jogging no matter how much information they acquire or observe.
I could care less whether all the analysts, banks or funds in the industry think Aussie will strengthen. If it’s looking like a high probability bet versus any of its trading partners it will leave a highly visible footprint on its journey (be it long or short) which at some point will begin flashing on our radars based on the criteria we monitor.
Our signal to engage will be at the point it begins to fulfil those criteria & I’ve witnessed plenty of occasions over the past year or so when that directly contradicts some or all of the above. Certainly sufficient enough times for me to place much more trust in engaging via what I actually see as opposed to what I or anyone else thinks or hears or even what fundamental & accompanying indicators suggest.
Excellent post Corpellan - give that man a round of applause and a cold beer.
Or to put it another way, wait for the market to prove its INTENT before entering … and allow the market to prove your position wrong [I](by trailing your stop)[/I] before exiting.
You can analyze this thing to death, and then Osama bombs a train in Spain, and throws it all into the air.
Best to use those simple triggers, and realize at the end of the day, this is a yoyo, not a one way trip up.
Agreed Matt, can’t really argue against any of that.
Very well presented.
Most of the content from stuff way back when is still very much valid even in this week’s market activity huh?
Fads & hair brained systems come & go but solid structure based around human psychology always leaves a well lit trail. Some things will never change & if you’re savvy enough to recognise & act on them you won’t go far wrong.
I just want to take a moment to say thank you. Thank you to the "“facilitators” of this thread, Thank you to the question makers in this thread. Thank you to all other contributions to this thread.
I am still getting my head wrapped around it. but my last 3 months, have been my best 3 consecutive months ever! This has a whole lot do do with the contributions made here.
So here it is , in alpha order - THANKS! (and if I missed anyone, I do apologize)
AltTab
apache rider
cator
compact
corpellan
dancat
double 6
DoubleEcho
forexspot99
hawkmoon
jjay
Jocelyn
kechel
Kevan Reynolds
kyle morgan
laine
MattW2009
mc297
Muneef
odds on
on the bid
Ray_1
Saul Reivers
shadowline
sketcher
soultrain
speed bump
stakz
stop runner
Tess
Thalia
visualxray
volan
wyntac
That’s nice to hear, & on behalf of the other bandits - good for you.
If there’s one thing we’ve experienced most in this business down the years through our interactions with punters either directly via seminars, individual tuition slots or group training segments, it’s their propensity & almost destructive fascination with unnecessary over complication, especially at this level of the game.
The survivors always feedback that the minute they wise up & strip all the layers back they begin to unlock their true potential. Boy how we’d love a pound for everyone who has remarked they wished they’d done it much, much sooner.
