Apart from the continued reinforcement from the thread contributors, what primarily do you put the recent successful consistency down to Perch Tird?
Mostly - let price action do the work! (ie buystop or sellstop PERIOD)
Secondly - basing my thought process beginning with the daily chart. (vs. trying to weigh in on 3 time frames and me deciding what price should do)
My first, and really only question is. Do I have any reason whatsoever to be in the market today?
That then lends to the questions - where and when would be a good time, if the answer to the previous was yes. (that last statement is maybe more futuristic, as I pretty much base my decisions at xx:xx oâclock, then set pendings if I see a reason too) sometimes during the evening, if my pending has not been hit, I look to a shorter time frame an apply a 3-ducks thought process - - maybe to get in with a little better price)<---- this may yet prove to be a bad idea⌠but I do not know yet :).
Thanks for asking Hawkmoon, it did me good to âverbalizeâ, so that I do not go astray as easily.
edited: one more thing, I never really thought was an issue, but it may have been, and maybe still is to some extent. I typically would think, how did I miss that move, or I better be watching all the time so I donât miss a move. Now I am developing a I donât want to be in the market at all, unless, it looks right. I am happy to say, I didnât catch that move as it was not part of MY trade plan.
And this month helps as there have been many opportunities according to MY plan, so I believe I will be able to sit on my hands much easier too.
Weâve always encouraged folks to find their own comfort zones with the template configurations, time allocations & risk profiles, so if that set up pushes your buttons then all well & good. Itâs not like the framework is rigid or exclusive to a particular set of background/foreground criteria. In fact itâs flexibility is the reason it adapts so well to the ever changing environment & ensures itâs a âman for all seasonsâ
Although Iâm scratching my head slightly regarding this commentâŚâŚ
Iâm not quite sure whether youâve misunderstood the concept or if your comment is simply being lost in translation but nowhere have we, or do we ever suggest or state you need to [B]decide[/B] where price is going after identifying & filtering the higher potential candidates. The specific identification & filtering 2-step process eliminates the need to predict, decide or guess because youâre always seeking out directionally primed momentum.
Itâs designed to do exactly what it says on the tin & help to filter out the [U]highest[/U] or currently [U]strongest[/U] probability momentum generated entries from a decent selection of likeminded candidates.
But I do concur that if time is your enemy & youâre unable to allocate the necessary focus to a slightly faster multi-timeframe approach then your chosen arrangement is a decent compromise. And at the end of the day as long as youâre recording positive expectancy & are comfortable with your set up, then who cares how you construct it. Figures rule the roost & they donât lie either.
Hope it continues in the green for you!
stats are revealing punters have been struggling badly lately to get & keep a footing on any kind of ladder
it still bemuses us how or why they persist punting into visibly low probability biases & set ups, but there you go - that predicament wonât (or shouldnât) bother you boys & girls & on that score whatâs currently on your radars?
It has been very bitty & patchy lately, but i still like long oil, particularly as it held 48.0 all through last week which was the high of the prior week (comm 8th May).
i still have euro longs v/s
aud â maintaining its higher lows
usd â shallow pullback into the weeks open & good solid intraday cycles all last week since breaking 1.09
cad - held 51 r/n comfortably wed thru fri & again today
- usd/cad short bias, closing at the lows last week with a shallow pullback into todayâs open complete my A list for this week.
Ha, you beat me to the punch with your Euro pairings & USD/CAD short 
Nice to see similar flitered candidates though!
FTSE is top of my stock market list & iâve triggered silver again today on this morningâs shallow pullback off fridays highs.
Yes it still appears youâre all continuing to sing from the same hymn sheet judging by recent submissions, which is good to see.
I doubt youâll be surprised by now to discover that last week from tuesday through thursday whilst oil was being shouldered at that 48 round number, punters were throwing shorts at it like it was going out of fashion, just as it was gearing up to continue its northerly ascent in line with the current dominant directional flow. As NY came online thursday, the aggregated retail positioning recorded an 84.6% short exposure.
All through last week, shorts were increasing on eur/aud off the 1.48 & 49 round numbers, spiking at 87.6% into 1.50 (increasing today to 91.3%).
Similar deal with eur/usd.
Ftse punters got royally whacked friday trying to run thursdays slide & even more of their short stops got killed this morning on the continuation of the current dominant long flows.
Keep an eye on eur/jpy this week fellaâsâŚâŚpunters short stops got cremated on friday & more were burnt today through 125, but theyâre still piling into shorts. Youâre all aware of when your background will signal neutral, but that isnât quite yet.
Nervous short stops are clumped above todayâs highs tiered to last weekâs top @25.80, so be on your toes if it fails to slip through your usual alert levels.
[B]a manchester song for manchester folk
[/B]
A continued increase in short positioning since you posted that on Monday, culminating in itâs highest read weighting last night. And right on cue up it goes swallowing more stops on the way to last weekâs highs!
Early birds get the worm again & avoid any gusty crosswinds up at 125.80
Theyâre all making good ground in the right direction too, especially that dollar/cad short.
Youâre right. I for one definitely wonât make that mistake again. I offered a couple of pointers to someone today on Andyâs thread & this numpty barges in & starts throwing his dummies at me, lol.
Whatâs happened to this place?
In the good old days you could nudge & guide folks towards decent advice & information. I realise I havenât been around for a wee while, but it seems everyone on here is suspicious of their own shadows.
Oh well, let em get on with it.
Those days are long gone buddy.
You try & offer a helping hand these days or link folks to more info as you & visualxray did recently & you get accused of having some sort of (financial) agenda. God forbid what kind of reception or accusations the girls, Andre & Jimmy et al would attract if they rocked up these days.
The mood changed & escalated around the start of 00âs when the gurus & product salesmen began rocking up one after the other & a lot of rookies as well as long standing regulars got suckered into their tall stories & nonsense.
If the forum police had waved a big stick right from the off & actively discouraged such activity it might not have instilled such a wide streak of suspicion & wariness throughout the place.
But the clowns, storytellers & product peddlers attract foot traffic with their flowery verbiage & useless tat & this joint relies on foot flow, so thereâs always going to resistance to trim their income streams by making life hard for that sector of forum membership.
As you say, just donât bother getting involved, be frugal with your advice & activity & let someone else pick up the slack.
However, the flip side being those sizzle sellers are kind of good news for you guys & us too.
A fair percentage of their target audience will be UK based & therefore get lured into opening brokerage accounts on the back of all that sizzle. A lot of them might not last very long, but hopefully the hardcore will enthusiastically continue to top their accounts up in the hope of eventually finding the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
And the types of typical strategies they employ offer us a regular heads up via the aggregated weightings stats on a daily basis. Match that up with a clear directional bias & thereâs no better leading indicator than continually fading the reversal players & indicator junkies, as Alt Tab reminded us on Monday & wyntac confirmed early yesterday.
Theyâve certainly been busy facing the wrong way again this week!
Iâm sure as I do, you lads cast an eye over the stats each day, but iâve now gotten into the habit of âdouble filteringâ the candidates with the weightings & it occasionally throws up big, colourful anomalies. Obviously theyâre not in abundance every week & the filter needs to be employed to match them up, but this week has thrown up more than its fair share.
A nice top-up to stick on the A list especially when pickings are thin during the phases when currencies rotate from one bias to another.
AUDNZD finally rolled over monday off the 1.08 double weekly high barrier & each (NY) closing session up to yâday recorded increased long weightings culminating in a 91% long order bias.
The other midweek [U]filtered[/U] candidates of note were;
GBPCHF â a strong short play, largest long weighting into wed (NY) close @88.3%
GBPCAD â a strong short play, largest long weighting into wed European open @80.7% & again yâday into the (NY) close @81.5%
Dow â a strong long play, largest short weighting into wed open @ 81.6%, just before breaking out through Tuesdayâs highs.
GBPNZD â short play, largest long weighting into thursdayâs european lunchtime @78.3%
Oh thereâs always a silver lining in those heavy fluffy clouds young man!
Theyâre a permanent scab on the skin of these forums & associated websites, but theyâre also very good for business. As with most things money related, the few savvy guys quickly suss them out & give them a wide berth, leaving the usual fodder to swell the brokers & winning punters coffers.
Youâd have thought the regularity in which they appear, most participants would be wise to it but in our experience that isnât often the case.
The same folk tend to fall for the sizzle sellers multiple times, which is even better for business. Mixed in amongst the newcomers are also long standing members with high visibility profiles who often develop a following on forums in their own right. The knock-on effect being those vulnerable newcomers are then pretty relaxed about putting all their eggs in their advice baskets if a high profile member is bigging up a particular guru, strategy, course or seminar etc.
There are all sorts of shenanigans played out in these places on a daily basis.
Given the extremely high foot flow these joints generate, theyâre quite lucrative hunting grounds for any number of agendaâs.
Itâs all good fun.
Within the (retail) space in which youâre operating, that view is spot on & the correct tactic to deploy, but thatâs not to say the types of strategies youâre referring to such as top & bottom reversal plays, round number/figure bounces & long range highs & lows arenât workable or financially lucrative, just not a profitable option in the hands of your typical retail punter.
Those types of tactics are operated relatively successfully in the institutional space via HFT algos.
They can very quickly pyramid up & stack large sized orders across small moves multiple times per session, even spreading that operation throughout tiered products, an option well out of the realms of the typical non-automated retailer. Itâs why you guys have been strongly advised to adopt the tactic & approach presented & been equally strongly advised to give the above a wide berth.
Playing to your strengths based on the environment youâre operating under is absolutely key if you wish to live long & prosper in this game.
Your man sketcher is beginning to see why we actively discouraged you fellaâs from pursuing the above & also witnesing the opportunities & accompanying rewards that game play can return when employed correctly, but of course the machines will only do what the programmers tell them to, therefore you still need to pick your battles & know when to switch products & also hit the off switch.
Iâve gradually been reading this thread over the last week or so and just wanted to thank those whoâve been contributing to it and keeping it going for so long. Thereâs a great deal of value and help here. (Iâm a bit surprised itâs in this part of the forum.)
Thank you, all.
Itâs parked here because thereâs a mix of topics within the content & this little corner kind of seemed chilled & not too starchy. Folks will find it if they need to. 
Glad you like it, hope one or two elements add some zip to whatever youâre using.
Role call please. How many of you will still be contributing here, after the change? I have a quick update. Uggggg follow the rules you set for yourself!!! I was doing pretty good, then got greedy, then allowed a wider birth on entry, then got reminded how stupid I was being. But on a side note, I am extremely happy that it happened again. It didnât cost me a whole ton, and directed my focus to what I am doing right. I am now back on the right track. (At least I think I am)
didnât even realise theyâd been a change until I logged in just now.
I guess one of us will address anything thatâs posted once we get an alert, not sure why a change of forum graphics would deter responses?!
anyway, you need to ask yourself how come youâre still slipping up so easily on these basic set up criteria.
if youâve tightened up on your prep, entry & exit procedures & recognise when & why your higher probability game plays are unfolding, then at this stage of your activity these slips shouldnât be occurring should they?
sounds like a lot of these situations are mental or confidence barriers.
Thanks soultrain. Actually, I simply applied my âentryâ criteria on an unfamiliar time frame. I used my ⌠How do I say it⌠I used my view and structure look from an intraday perspective and tried to apply it on an intramonth perspective. It didnât work. 