it was an even larger disparity last week on nazdaq up at 7000 & Nikkei at 22520. Most were shorting into the beginning of this week & as far as I know sketcher & corpellan are still running strong long bets in those 2.
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similar picture at 76.0 on audusd & 98.0 on audcad…very heavy (aggregate) short participation on both into the last week’s close/this week’s open ensuring the guys received acceptable odds on their long bets.
as you’re no doubt witnessing, these opportunities are plentiful every month when combining that observation with the correct positioning & set up triggers.
Assuming I trade in Europe and I try to catch the movement at the beginning of London session (where volumes are higher) and I tend to close or trail my SL when the price has travelled the daily range,
on Monday I would have missed the entire move as at 8.00 price did travelled almost 100% of his range.
On Tuesday I could have taken the stocastic hook after 8.00 with a loss and the the second one at about 16.00 (also 123 pattern on 15m) that could have returned an about 1R result. Yesterday wasn’t a big move during London session too.
So the question is: shall I have to trade AUD/USD (but also NZD/USD, AUD/JPY ecc…) not only during the London window but preferably during asian sessions?
A lot of the Australasian momentum in the corresponding pairings is stronger during their regional business hours. You will pick up pullback & continuation breakout triggers during European & North American hours but as with anything else, patience will bring its rewards.
As you note, occasionally a good chunk of the daily range will already be banked into the mid European session so you’re going to need to ensure all the key components of the set up are lined up in your favour before triggering.
Wyntac was shorting gbpnzd during most of May & we noticed a good percentage of his bets were triggered at the beginning or during European hours. Same with eurcad in April. If you trigger off the key levels (prior session high/lows, round numbers etc) via pullbacks & breakouts you’ll receive a decent percentage of entries during your own regional business sessions.
Just be mindful of those smaller range pairs when attempting to engage intraday day type gambles. You really need as much gas in the daily range tank as possible & aud/usd only has a touch over 60 pips to go at. We’d advise to skip the lower end range pairs when taking intraday punts unless you can grab a good chunk of the range at entry during your regional business window.
They’re ok to punt them via rollovers & trail your stop up underneath key levels or the day’s range to see how far they can run. Some of them will sprint a good way especially if they’re being driven by strong sentiment/momentum.
Using that chart example, you’ve correctly adjudged the positioning this week as long above 76.0 & your higher odds entry was indeed that pullback trigger back to that level on tuesday as it was backed up with a full tank of range gas, punching off a key level & had the flow behind it.
If you’re looking to punt aussie via intraday gambles you’d be better off eyeing it via either sterling or euro as they afford you between 80 & 150% more range flexibility than aud/usd.
Those are 2 of the 8 higher range pairings that take top billing when considering intraday gambles on the spot offerings. The other 6 being gbp/nzd, gbp/cad, gbp/jpy, eur/nzd, eur/cad & gbp/chf.
[quote=“AltTab, post:1318, topic:71504”]Just be mindful of those smaller range pairs when attempting to engage intraday.
If you’re looking to punt aussie intraday you’d be better off eyeing it via either sterling or euro as they afford you between 80 & 150% more range flexibility than aud/usd. Those are 2 of the 8 higher range pairings that take top billing when considering intraday gambles on the spot offerings.[/quote]
That’s a very apt reminder & one which has helped me personally.
I read similar advice back in the thread when i began perusing the content & it’s definitely worth taking on board. Although the crosses can sometimes chop around a bit before getting into a groove, the extra range coverage they afford on day trades is worth the effort.
I’m lucky i can catch the opening segments of the Sydney & Tokyo sessions mc, but i’ve also picked up entries during european trade too. They might not be as competatively priced regards available range as in their own trading zones, but they do come around, particularly if news or events influencing Sterling, Euro or Canadian Dollar ramp up the volatility.
& all 3 of those have had ants in their pants of late, particularly today.
Interestingly, but not unsurprisingly the majority of those 3 cross match pairings stalled or bounced previous weekly highs/lows or round number levels having breached daily, & in some cases covered weekly range averages almost to the pip.
If you missed the first swing of the bat you could catch it with the second using the same data set.
[quote=“sketcher, post:946, topic:71504”]Although I’ve been punting 2 reasonably large accounts of my own with decent success I was looking to scale up significantly & spread my wings a little. These guys aren’t bankrolling me they’re merely the introduction to those who are/can.
I’ve been proofing my accounts to Billy & odds on since last year & based on those results & a couple of meetings, they offered me the opportunity to pitch to a selection of investors. They provide the wedge on a negotiated profit split deal.
The investors have accounts spread across firms such as NewEdge, Fixi etc where Scott, Jose & laine work out of, so the relationship link is already established.[/quote]
sketcher,
I must have missed this the first time around. That’s a fantastic progression & an impressive step-up in such a short time frame, good on you!
I saw what now is obviously the follow up post later on, but this one clearly slipped through the net. Are you still engaging via that route & execution platforms? & have you retained your personal accounts?
They are very experienced campaigners with skill sets gained from a variety of roles within the industry Roddy. That kind of activity allows you to quickly zone into & focus on the stuff that actually makes money instead of wasting valuable time & resources trying to reinvent the wheel. There’s a bit more goes on behind the scenes than is apparent on the stage of the thread, but the routines & habits remain constant.
Yes mate.
I mothballed one of them for a while but eventually encashed both & stuck them into higher interest bearing accounts. Hopefully I won’t need to drop back down to that level again (famous last words lol) or utilise my own capital to bet with. Much more attractive & appealing using someone else’s cash to absorb the risk.
I execute exclusively through Société Générale at present, but it can & will change based on the investors & objectives. The guys contact nets spread far & wide which makes life both interesting & lucrative. One or two have long standing relationships with Fimat/NewEdge hence the Générale link.
They’ll certainly be nothing to miss about the latest suffocation tactics of retail participation courtesy of those clueless jobsworths at ESMA.
The slow bleed extinction of retail exposure continues unabated.
One or two of you lucky guys couldn’t have timed your migration away from retail any better.
Sketcher,
Sent you a pm requesting further info on the above.
Apparently there’s been a glitch with folks not receiving notifications & messages, hence the nudge to check your folder.
Cheers mate.
aye, message prompts have been going awol for a while apparently.
not sure if it’s fully back on track or not yet.
he’s been away on his jollies since Aug 2 Roddy so I doubt e-mail prompts (if indeed he’s receiving them) will be too high on his agenda.
don’t think he’s back in the land of the living till end of month, so unless it’s something specific to him, fire a message off to either me, dan or apache & we’ll hopefully pick it up pal.
As you can see, there is this big spike usually around 9pm GMT, without any news supporting it.
Some broker has it a little shorter, but it’s not something I have just me on my broker.
It’s not the first time I see it. Is it stop hunting?
Thanks in advance
A lot of them are nothing more than rogue prints. They don’t appear quite as visible on all platforms, but also pop up on professional units.
Thin liquidity/large volume & fat fingers can cause what resembles an unstable print.
If you’re affected always check in with your broker & they’ll investigate it.
I checked once with my broker (Dukascopy, EU) but I never had an answer from them. It’s strange as it is NZD related and always almost at the same time, the start of their shift.
I don’t trade NZD very often but it’s something that could upset me if I were in a trade.
