Where in the world are you (you seem to be on or near the same timezone as me i.e. GMT+2)??? Just curious.
What I DID want to add to my post (but had to go up to the shops quickly so couldn’t finish it before you’d already replied):
Another thing about Gold: it can ALSO ‘hang around’ for day, weeks, or months on end at a certain price and then start moving. Look at Silver for example: it ‘did noting’ for years, then all of a sudden ‘took off like a space rocket’, and is now right back down to where it was before it’s ‘spectacular performance’ at the beginning of this year (or sometime this year or at the end of last year i.e. I forget). So remember: you could also ‘sit’ on a Gold position that goes nowhere for a long time and remember that in most cases you’ll be paying swap on the position.
Don’t misunderstand me: I’m no ‘Gold Bug’ or ‘Silver Bug’ or ‘expert’ on these things. I’ve only ever had bad experiences with Gold. A few years ago I was one of those that ‘fell’ for the Bloomberg TV Analysts and their ‘educated guesses’. In one week, when Gold was at somewhere around $700, no less than three Bloomberg TV Analysts said that it was VERY SOON and Gold would go to $900 an ounce (or more). One even had the ‘gall’ to say it would happen by the end of the very same week (and this was on the Tuesday night of that week). So what did any inexperienced and dumb trader do (ME)??? Margined just about my entire account ‘KNOWING’ I’d ‘clean up’ by the end of the week. Well here’s the thing: Gold moved up a few USD and then dropped in straight line to $500 or so an ounce and stayed there for months (needless to say I was margined called). Gold DID INDEED get to $900 an ounce: about ten or twelve months later!!! LOL!!!
Needless to say: I’ve traded Gold on VERY few occasions since and THEN only with tiny amounts!!!
And I’m not ‘knocking’ the trading of Gold either. I honestly do believe that EVEN IF you bought a whole bunch of Gold RIGHT NOW at this price and could hold it for ten or twenty years: it would be worth a fortune per ounce. But you’ve got to make sure that your ‘bottom’ is covered is all.
Ask Buckscoder: he’s the ‘Gold Guru’ around here!!!
I’m seeing my ‘Gold’ in Bank of America!!! LOL!!! The downside is only a few hundred dollars down (if the stock goes to zero) and the upside, even if it takes ten or twenty years, is unlimited!!! The ‘trick’ with trades of this nature is to ‘set and forget’. I can only imagine how tempting it would be to be sitting on a $100 000 position (profit) and not taking that profit even although there is WAY more upside potential!!! LOL!!! If it happens: I’ll let you know!!! LOL!!!
I wish I was, lol. However, it could go down even til 1400 is my new analysis. Not to say it must. However, we have a lower high so far. Plus it needs a little time to tank. Maybe just that and it’s going sideways. Your right, it is more likely to go sideways for some time than to drop big. That’s what it did in the past and regarding to statistics this has higher probability.
Anyways, wait for BoA to drop to 50 cent, then you sell that penny stock and then after you sold it will skyrocket to 99999999999999 bucks!
Well: I’ve decided to ‘put my money where my mouth is’ and give this thing called ‘investing’ (not trading) a ‘bash’.
Bank of America:
I’ve got a limit order buy pending at $2.92 (lowest close February 2009) for 100 CFDs (units) with no leverage (cash CFDs). ‘Cost’ (margin used) will be $292. If it’s reached and executed: my loss is limited to $292. If it goes to $53.88 (the highest close November 2006) then that’s $5 095 profit (plus any dividends along the way and no interest payable). That would be a gain of 1 745%. Not much in monetary terms but not a bad return even over a few years!!! LOL!!! There’s (potentially) my ‘Gold’. LOL!!! An M&A could ‘speed up the process’ of course (but not by the same amount I’ll wager).
Anyone want to join me in this little ‘experiment’ feel free (although there’s a managenent fee of 10% which I’ll take for having the idea and my trouble and keeping you informed of the progress etc. NOT that it’s anything that you couldn’t do yourself of course)!!! LOL!!!
Well: I lost more than $292 today in two trades so it’s not the money.
Then again: look at what happened with CitiGroup. They were trading at $5 or so and then did some ‘reverse stock split’ and became a $50 stock overnight (not sure of the exact figures but they’re posted around here somewhere). So let’s say that CitiGroup took over BAC at some point???
And then I have to keep asking mself what would Warren Buffet’s motive be for be buying into ‘toast’. I’m sure it’s not for the same reason I’m looking at them i.e. ‘because they’re cheap and affordable’. With his experience and all his advisors and due diligence done he must know SOMETHING that we’re not privy to (but should be of course).
As I said though: this would not be a trade in any sense of the word. And it probably would not amount to much in monetary terms either. Just and ‘investment experiment’ I guess and to prove a point (as to wether I was right or wrong I guess). I don’t think I’d have the ‘guts’ to ‘plough in’ $292 000 (or a few billion for that matter unless it was ‘petty cash’ of course) but, hey, just curious I guess.
It’s just that all I’ve read on it points to bad things in the near future for B of A. And I’ve had a B of A chart open for the last 6 months or so watching this unfold.
I’ll send you some links so you can do some research.
As for the Citi reverse split, If you owned 10 shares at $4.40, you got one at $44. So, your investment isn’t worth more, you just own less.
BUT… Now HAD you owned those Citi shares, the close on Friday was $24.
It’s lost almost 50% since the reverse.
As for Warren Buffet, he’s not immune to getting soaked like the rest of us, he just gets soaked with bigger numbers. As a matter of fact, I think he bought $5 billion worth at $6.15 a share. It’s now $5 a share. That’s almost a billion in the trashcan at the moment. Where do you say “no mas”?
No, I am kidding a bit. Anyways. I don’t know, I have the gut feeling this will fall to 0.50 before it goes up again. 1/100 is exactly the bottom for such a stock where I would buy a few shares, isn’t it?
If Obama could make it another 4 years it could be they bail BoA out. Albeit I doubt he will. Plus then he has no majority in the congress.
However, I wish it will go to 500 after your limit price, Dale!
Thanks Dale, Leander…but I was talking about specific strategies as whether any exist that work for both…but guess that’s going to take this thread in a different tangent altogether. But yes, Gold does correct violently, every time the festival of lights or X’mas comes up, gold goes up and few weeks down the line, correction sets in.
Have you ever heard the term ‘table maximum’??? THAT is why a Martingale Strategy cannot work and the ‘table maximum’ was introduced for that VERY reason. If there were no ‘table maximum’ (and asuming you didn’t run out of chips) you could just keep doubling and doubling and at SOME point you’d be ‘right’. So let’s dispense with the ‘gambling’ idea or any Martingale Type Strategy shall we!!! Believe me: I (we) only have your interests at heart (and not to mention the fact that we’d all miss the entertainment value of this thread should it ever ‘die’)!!! LOL!!!
If you’re in the mood for being serious here:
What EXACTLY IS IT that you’re trying to accomplish here??? Is this some type of ‘experiment’ or an attempt at ‘out of the box thinking’ or what??? I’m just curious and by no means are ‘berating’ you. I’m just keen to know is all!!! LOL!!! Either that you have a IQ that’s ‘off the charts’ and us mere mortals are simply unable to ‘grasp’ your ‘concepts’.
And Master Tang (I’ve sent you a PM in reply to yours) and Mr. Gecko:
Thanks for the replies. As I’ve noted several times before: I don’t have the required understanding to make any ‘judgements’ here. I’m just looking at the POSSIBLE risk / reward ratio (risk is know while rewad is unknown).
I’ll tell you a little secret though: this isn’t the first time I would have tried this. I THINK, one day ‘way back when’, I bought Washington Mutual at a ‘bargain basement price’. The one thing I DIDN’T take into account was leverage!!! So insead of risking (losing) something like $200 (or whatever it was) it turned out to be a $2 000 loss. I’ve learned a few things along the way (obviously)!!! LOL!!!
And you’re right: with CitiGroup and their reverse share swap your investment VALUE remained the same BUT the number of shares you owned had been decreased by ten fold which, in it’s turn, meant that from that point onward you were only making (or losing) $0.10 per $0.01 movement in price as opposed to $1.00 per $0.01 movement in price which, I supposed, defeats the object then. And you’re right: if it were not for that reverse share swap CitiGroup would be trading at $2.35!!! What I’d be interested to know is what if they went down to $2.35 EVEN AFTER this reverse share swap??? LOL!!!
Table maximum for game, we have many indicators for more possibility to win. post some good indicators here witch have winning percentage more than 50%, we can check one by one.
When we take decision about the risk reward? after we developed a trading strategy we will change or add possible risk all based on the trading style.
My risk was high so my account wiped out but 3 days my risk was not high but 4th day risk changed to high cause market volume changed.
Now i have to think about [B]what risk should i use in all type of market volume[/B] or [B]i should trade what volume was in my first 3 days trading time, when i doubled.[/B] so i have two options.
disadvantage in first one is limit my trading time in low volume time or range bounding time also not possible to add EA in VPS cause limited time in trading when market dead ( 4h )
disadvantage in low risk is ROI reduce to 10% from 100%
so the conclusion is 100% return we can not do every day 10% is possible everyday so the chances in average is not double daily but its “possible” around 25%.
“I think there is no decent trading methods but hack.”
sorry guys / girls i have to come return this thread to clarify doubling daily is possible or not, few days i was testing some martingale+hedge+kelly strategy+FA+TA+fib+related currency+range+price action …
over leverage is matter in double within a day it is 100% risk method can use in any trading strategy
You should get some better tick data, or face some rather unpleasant results in forward testing.
If it’s funny munny, just turn in on with a demo, and let it go.
