This is exactly the same as on a demo account to a real one.
I’m interested to know as well.
Yeah that’s happened to me too. Even when I backtested over 10+ years on multiple pairs, with a sample size of 1200+, my system failed when it was implemented live. My guess is that markets change over time, not just in terms of fundamentals, but also in market participants and market behaviour.
I know, therefore it’s not easy at all to trade with just preset codes. On the other hand, some fundamentals or pattern are fixed. (and some market behaviour)
Like TREND.
and TREND + BREAK.
or TREND + BREAK + RANGE.
It took me about 120 systems to find some effective patterns stable enough over time.
Those patterns are basis of my system.
[B]Question of sample size has been answered before, page 40.[/B]
It’s not sample size (exclusively) that’s needed to evaluate an automated trading system.
And there not one diffinition or one set of rules for ‘enough’ sample size.
By using standard deviation 0.05 error, it’s still not possible to calculate sample size.
More factors are interacting. The 10 Holy Forex Commandments… | PipShip
I named the basic rules and I can tell you, there is not one system @ zulu able to perform according to those rules.
(all systems till now @ zulu is amateur programming, school to learn programming and ******* money of other people)
Today we (client & relation manager and myself) went to meetings with two banks or brokers.
[B]bank1: One broker (execution only) 60.000 clients. (accounts +/- 10k)
bank2: One broker (portfolio management) dozen of big clients (accounts of 10-200 mil)[/B]
bank1…
… I’ve carefully read your business and investment plan, but it’s a bit unrealistic I think. If you are able to trade like this you would be the best trading fund worldwide.
Me: … but the propositions made are based on live performance…
bank1: … OK, first try to imagine… every day we are receiving multiple reactions of people who think they designed a ‘‘system’’ or think they are able to trade well… We do not believe any results displayed by backtests, so do our clients not believe any results of backtests…
: … but sir, these results are not backtest, but live performance generated by a third party.
bank1: … OK, one more time, we only believe numbers, facts! If you do have a trade record, then we are able to connect a thousand clients, but first we need numbers.
me: … The numbers displayed (pointing to the numbers at the table) are live performance, made by a third party, real money, public and 2 times half a year real performance.
bank1: … Still I think it’s unrealistic. If you are able to trade like this you would be the best trading fund worldwide.
me: …
bank1: … Ok, I have to admit, the concept you are telling (or selling??) us is well funded and well designed. It’s new. I’ve never seen anything like this before. Most signal providers only name the returns they are making. You are the first we meet who is talking about risk.
… silence again …
… If you are able to trade like this…
my manager: … (standing up out of his chair, a bit irritated…) we will think about it again…
next broker…
bank2:
talking with trading expert and director…
trading expert: I ve never seen anythink like this before. I’m not saying this can’t be true, but I ve never seen this before. Have you though about this possible problem, and about … and about … and what about…
me: yes certainly… The points you are mentioning are exactly the same problems I had to solve to let the system perform perfectly.
trading expert: (trading expert reflecting on itself… mmh, this guy speaks the same language as I’m using damn) And what about using a more competitive broker when you are now making 500% a year risk 3%. (weird, live performance correct… -> tradingexpert becomes enthousiastic, he also searched quite a long time for a good trading system himself but was unable to find a effective way to trade the market based on technical analysis…)
my manager: … (calculating)… one million start deposit gives a return in 3 years of … million when trading with interactive brokers (mass discount)
ik: mmh …that’s quite a lot… … …
director bank (anoniem): … euh yes… (director watching his trade expert going crazy) then, shall we make a new appointment?
both opinions are right.
I can write whole book about it… backtests vs live performance… It’s difficult for both traders, clients, experts. About 20% of my time I ve been discussing this subject the previous 8 years I think. Now, I think I’m wasting my time by discussing this subject any longer.
Solution instead of discussion:
[B]to support the LIVE system[/B]:
-live data (2x half a year, same currencies, third party, real money, public, ECN broker etc.)
-well designed business plan
-manager
-big car
-big suit
-big money following (2013 = 2.2 million euro… 2015 have to wait just a few weeks then things will go crazy…)
-big partners (knowing we do have multiple appointments same day)
-trading licences (coming…)
-big investor portfolio’s will be taken over = showroom.
[B]development new systems[/B] (cfd, silver, gold, oil, gas, etc)? -> I will use backtests & couple of months live performance.
I know solution is OK. -> see crazy live data
[B]End of thread. [/B]
I’m sorry guys. Because of new intern communication businessprotocol made by our commication and marketing advisor, I will no longer give updates of performance or business developments at the forum.
I hope everyone doing good research (this forum, other websites etc.) is able to find his way of money making. Once more I would like to mention the quote below:
[I]‘One of the sad realities of the trading industry, and the futures trading industry in particular, is that there are far more people making money selling others’ systems and “ways to make money trading,” than there are people actually making money trading. I won’t go into specifics here, but those of us who actually trade for a living know the names of many “famous traders” who are famous as “traders,” but that don’t make money as traders. They make money selling new trading systems, seminars, home study courses, etc. Most of these so called “experts” can’t trade and don’t trade the systems that they sell.’’ (bron original turtles, fighting the scams, frauds and charlatans)[/I]
- [B]Watch out for scams[/B]
- [B]Always use responsible moneymanagement[/B]
- [B]Do not overtrade.[/B] (do only trade high probablilty setups according to a previously made tradingstrategy)
- [B]Autotrade.[/B]
- [B]Test strategy.[/B] by > 2 years of data same currency backtests & live performance of several months
- [B]Standardise. [/B](no parameter adjustment, if needed -> stop trading -> recalculate all backtests -> continue trading)
- [B]Use statistics to calculate risk.[/B]
- [B]Focus on risk instead of returns.[/B]
- [B]Be carefull when using SP’s in your trading portfolio.[/B] Most SP’s using internet are amateurs. Please use for example rules posted at the website.
- [B]Always use stoplosses.[/B]
- [B]Always use stopout percentage tradingaccount. [/B]
- [B]Try to diversify your trading portfolio.[/B]
- [B]Start with low risk, low equity. Only profits legitimate trading big.[/B]
- [B]Avoid the gap of gambling.[/B] (made a loss, feel depressed/guilt/like **** -> increase lotsize & random gambling to win (hopefully… stresssss) and feel good again = gambling addiction)
- [B]Try to eliminate emotion[/B] (autotrading, fixed strategy (managed by someone else), lotsize managed by someone else)
- [B]Not everyone is suited for investing. [/B]Money is not ‘the way’ to hapiness & other ways to make money are maybe more easily for you as a person with your own particulair qualities. A professional trader feels confident, relaxed, bored when letting his system do the work. No feelings at all when winning or losing. He knows he ‘owns’ the game.
[B]Happy Trading![/B]
There was another thread where two members dissected the issues and problems with tick data that is stored for back testing versus live data. The tick data that is stored and then used for back testing is frequently defective and does not represent completely what occurred in the market over that time period.
They seemed to explain the issues quite well and if you are still interested in the details I can try to find it.
Another lie from this piece of garbage.
There would be a number with a set of statistical formula that underpin where it came from.
You are again a liar.
Either you are a fantasists who gets a thrill from posting false stories or you are delusional and need psychiatric assistance.
The conversation you posted never happened.
No banker would ever deal with you in the manner described… more lies.
Translation: My mum has come downstairs and told me to stay off the internet for a while.
Your latest zulutrade account is up to 176 trades … still massively short of adequate testing of which you have no clue.
Think about it. You say you walked into two banks seeking millions in funding based on an account that has 176 trades (less at the time of your meeting). You would have been laughed out of the room in two minutes. I do not believe you even had such a meeting. Perhaps your mother took you to a local bank branch to get a line of credit that she is co-signing, certainly not the situation you described.
Your other three accounts on zulutrade are no longer active, one with a huge loss. No doubt there are even more blow-ups and failures that you hide while touting the latest small series of wins as you attempt to get money from others.
You are a total liar. Anyone experienced in the finance industry can see through your false statements immediately.
You are exactly the type of dangerous fraudster that people need to stay away from. I have no doubt you will be back on babypips, perhaps under another false name, all trying to lure new people into your false schemes with them paying you fees.
If your systems are so good, go and borrow some start-up capital from mom and dad and run them for two years. You could pay the money back plus interest in less then four months if your lies are to be believed. You could then continue trading with your secret sauce and have a two year single account of live trades to back up your claims. This is the way most small businesses start, they borrow some risk capital, they prove the business makes money for a few years, they approach larger lenders and arrange for a line of credit and expand the business.
Truth, oke once more I will write a post because I think you are honestly dealing and asking yourself what could be true of the things I’m posting here.
Next week we do have an appointment with real estate property investor.
My communication and marketing manager advised me to no longer post on the internet. All communication towards partners, third parties, clients, internet etc. will be done by him.
We are in new waters now, (for me also) therefore this procedure has taken place.
‘If your systems are so good, go and borrow some start-up capital from mom and dad and run them for two years. You could pay the money back plus interest in less then four months if your lies are to be believed.’
We will borrow start-up capital. Also a tax, start-up investement, administration and client manager has been added towards the team. We need risk captital of 100k euro’s.
-licence AFM
-contract clients setup by lawyer
-extern risk analyses done by specialist firm (needed for licence AFM)
-prospectus approved by AFM
-setup of 3 businesses (2 holdings, 1 trading firm)
-professional website (I’m writing texts right now for the website)
-income and salary of team first year
-VPS server costs of two years
-rent of small office
-office costs
-etc.
I’m sorry. I’m not able to paste the business plan here. I would like to but then my manager will go insane because very sensitive information has been written in the plan. (how to deal with clients or press, returns of the business, how to manage the system etc.). Retail traders are no longer in scope of our interest. (like many big trading firms or even starting trading firms) I’m searching for one piece of evidence I could give you so you would know things posted are based on real events. I do care about retail traders and -clients because I am or was a retail trader myself.
‘This is the way most small businesses start, they borrow some risk capital, they prove the business makes money for a few years, they approach larger lenders and arrange for a line of credit and expand the business.’
Well, my client relation manager of course has a lot of contacts. He has worked in the financial world of the Netherlands for many years and is more capable in seeing possible investement chances. He in fact is a coach of start up’s (I can’t go too much in detail here) and also selects start-ups or wannebe start-ups for investors. That’s why I approched him at first. I needed support because I know I’m a very good trader, but I’m a stupid in communication, business setups, professional business protocols, how to deal with clients, press, big players and I’m much too young to be a representive business partner myself. He read the business plan. Of course did not believe the prospects I told him at first totally. But, some facts couldn’t certainly be ignored.
-I’m designing systems for 8 years now, made hundreds of systems. (and used all my savings to do so, sort of persistence)
-2013 I was able to attract 2.2 million euro’s in only 18 weeks. (and 800 clients)
-Systems trading in 2013 do have the same performance as systems trading in 2015. (live numbers)
-I was able to explain why the systems performed like this.
We (manager and I) are now working together for almost 8 months. (3rd manager, worked with other managers before) First he was very sceptical about the system and the ‘big story’ I was selling.
We are speaking each other every day. Before we were able to set up a business, I had to build the largest trading system I have ever build. (PipShip02) https://www.zulutrade.com/trader/264581
(more detailed info see PipShip)
It took me five months to build and test it using five different advanced huge capacity servers costing 500 euro’s a month each. Strategies that complex, large quantaties of tick data and large quantities of calculations. (please don’t tell me anything about backtesting) We had to hire a whole part of a data center to do so) In december I built first two strategies. Then also starting the zulu account to start building data. Then next two months I wrote and tested the other 10 strategies.
Sometimes I worked non stop. (because we already had one client very interested)
Working through the night then only four hours of sleep at daylight, then continue to work 18 hours etc.
Last month I almost crashed because it was too much work to do in such a short period.
Strategie now has about 800 pages I think of formulas. Maybe even more.
I posted the overview I used to test each strategy as a sort of proof in the attachement.
I’ll continue in a new post… (this will be the final post I’ll write) but first I’m going to sleep. It’s in the middle of the night 3.30 AM in Europe.
When do you expect your company website to go live?
(providing signals)
The website is already live. (see PipShip) Codes and system are running on a high availability server and connected with the IB.
(portfolio management)
The new trading company will manage a piece of the portfolio’s of larger (institutional) clients. We will use a new website translated in dutch. More competitive IB’s than zulutrade will be used so were are able to ask a performance fee 20%.
Next week we are starting negotiations with larger institutional client. Therefore this is the final message I will post. See you guys! Good luck!
Where can I download EA?