Backtests till now (450/-600 ratio is needed to gain 15% each month, original risk 6%)
Individual trades (till now) in zip file:
backtesten.zip (732 KB)
So I have taken a quick look at your 300+ post thread and am trying to understand, but not quite there just yet. I see that you have recently edited a number of the posts including post #1.
I have a question based on part of your post #1
This seems to mean that if I deposit $50,000 with you, then you will take $10,000 of that money to use for expenses of the new company, such as electricity, salaries, rent etc., is that a correct understanding?
One more question. This thread goes back several years and mentions zulutrade, but the only pipships I see on zulutrade is pipships02 with only 14 weeks of data.
Naturally this last 14 weeks of data that is posted publicly looks quite impressive, but what about the previous few years, is there another account name for that data?
No, deposits need to be traded diversified. (is this the right term in english?? i don’t know)
Normally trading firms do invest a percentage in real estate property, national market shares, international market shares, upcoming market shares, forex etc etc.
We are only trading forex, therefore when having a portfolio of 10.000 euro we advice to distribute a max percentage of 20% towards us trading forex. (2000 euro’s)
Rest of money, try to find other ways to invest…
In future we will also trade: gas & oil (10% for example), gold & silver (another 15%), cfd’s like dax and S&P500, nasdaq (another 15%), and forex (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, another 20%)
Then portfolio is carefully managed 60% by our trading firm. 20% maybe gambling by yourself and 20% in real estate property (other firm)
expenses following year will be about 50-100k, depending the licences we need, lawyer costs to set up contracts, notary office etc etc
First we had some blow ups (I had to learn how to develop a pro robot in about 8 years)
Then first success 2013. (high of 2.2 million euro’s invested)
PipShip1 : track record can be found at Newz & Backtests | PipShip
I had to finish university…
Then one year building even better robot:
PipShip2: track record can be found at
https://www.zulutrade.com/trader/264581
LOL, you need 300 Euros to become millionaire in 6 years?
Really? you spent all this time and money, yet you can’t come up with 3000 eouro’s of your own to become a millionaire in 7 months or 6000 eouro’s to become a millionaire in 3 months?
LOLOLOL
Dude, this is just same message as the post 2 pages before.
‘‘Of course we are able to use this robot only for ourselves but we think ‘trying to set up this concept as a huge firm’ is a much bigger challenge than only trading our robot with a couple of thousand euro’s waiting to become big after about five to six years.’’
Read more: 301 Moved Permanently
Im not trading to earn just 1 million. I need more. (It’s a company)
I will put it this way: 1st of june 2015: start E 500.000,00 euro’s of big player.
(I will paste the exact bank statements here, without the personal details of this client of course)
300 euro 15% each month:
1st year: 1.15^12 x 300 = 1600 euro’s
2nd year: 1.15^12 x 1600 = 8600 euro’s
3rd year: 1.15^12 x 8600 = 46.000 euro’s
4th year: 1.15^12 x 46.000 = 250.000 euro’s
5th year: 1.15^12 x 250000 = 1.300.000 euro’s
I do expect hitting the -20% stop each two years. So I need about 6 years to earn 1 million out of 300 euro’s.
See individual trades 2013,2014,2015 at Newz & Backtests | PipShip
PLUS:
-I do have much more expenses today than just 300 euro’s.
-I need a bit more than just 1 million euro’s (investor, employees, myself, fund manager, contracts etc)
-In the world I’m working 1 million euro’s is just a joke.
[B]You are claiming the following…
use 7000 euro’s then become millionaire in about three months.
7000 x 1.15^3 = 10.6000 =/= 1.000.000 euro’s
3000 x 1.15^7 = 8.000 =/= 1.000.000 euro’s[/B]
then still I need five years…
… and I think it’s much more fun to trade millions…
Oke…
the following is very important. Next week we will also visit a potential new partner: tradzster.nl
To trade at the platform clients need to have an account of > E 5000,00,
Also SP’s need to have an account of E 5000,00 following the exact same signals.
We were already trading E 5000,00. To join the platform of this potential partner we ‘‘need’’ to trade E 5000,00 ourselves 
I will post the exact trading statements as soon as possible.
New week 
Final week of month 4 trading with the account of PipShip2.
Are we hitting the 1000 pips line?
Then at the end of this month also all strategies are backtested and LIVE. (still 4 to go) Finally, I will do have some rest! Then I can play outside again making sand castles and play with friends again…
Also final results of backtests 2013,2014 and final trading ratio will be posted as well.
Zulutrade indicates that only 119 trades have been made. This is a wholly inadequate sample size for an automated system that you intend to put into corporate use for multiple clients.
Additionally, it has only been for fours months, and those four months have had oil in a steady downtrend and the USD on a steady uptrend. A chimpanzee could make money in these conditions, and then blow up the account when the fundamentals change.
So my questions are, what do you consider an adequate sample size for testing an EA that you intend to have widespread use with multiple clients, and what time frame for testing do you believe to be adequate for testing?
I certainly would not want my real money to be used as your software beta test.
The old backtest results are no longer relevant for two reasons, first they are simply posted on your own website and there is no third party audit or control. Second, and far more important, the moment you changed one line of code that entire test was no longer valid.
[B]Dear truth,
There are a number of valid points you are making;
-4 months is still relative short period for live track record.
-EURUSD has been in a downtrend during this months, now changing towards a side/uptrend. It’s relatively easy to make money in these conditions.
-backtest is not third party information
-the moment you are changing one line of code the entire backtests are no longer valid.
Let me please evaluate the points you are making.[/B]
First, there has been a live period of 4 months. At the page The 10 Holy Forex Commandments… | PipShip (commandment 9) I’m writing: ‘History > 3 months (3 months is standard period at zulutrade to calculate the SP performance) Than still a lot of strategies go down after this ’3-months-trial-period’ at zulu. DD is not managed at a standardised way, but based on luck. Sometimes you are very lucky! Sometimes you are not. ‘One-year-surviving-strategies’ are preferred.’
Pro investment firms ask at least two years of data. On the other hand a trade record has been made in 2013 of 6 months. The exact same way of trading was used. And, for the period between the two trade records, backtests have been made showing a steady increase in making pips at EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY. We did everything to give potential new clients as much data as possible.
‘‘analyse the amount of risk vs performance you are facing when trading with PipShip … (maxDD, performance month, pips/trade number) Always use proper money management and absolute stop (zuluguard) when trading to protect your capital. (advice: max 6% loss)’’
Plus, we advice to use a max loss of 6%. There is no forex of trading strategy available at the worldwide web using a max -6% range, but at the end of a period of a 3 month period of scaling up the amount of lots, is able to gain a steady +15% on equity.
Of course, when you do not feel confident about the performance of pipship strategy 2, please stay aside!
I only need people who trust this strategy and stay in when DD’s happen. And they will happen!
-600 range will be hitted one time each two years. Absolute stop protocol is needed! But at the end, there is no doubt about making serious money. Do not become to greedy! stick to the ******* rules at the website. Most of people will lose because of going out by DD’s and becoming to greedy. (overtrading) Even by using a very good autotrade strategy, still people will lose because they are simply not suited for investing.
Then, secondly EURUSD has been in a downward trend, now changing towards a side/uptrend. It’s relatively easy to make money in these conditions.
By analysing the trade record of pipship2. Do we use the daily trend by trading a 1 minute TF??? Most of the trades will follow ‘the main trend’. (of course, well not all of them) But are we trading by the so called ‘contact points’ of the upper downtrend trendline or are we trading somewhere else?? Well, the answer is, we are trading somewhere else. The system is using a trend strategy (at that time, break strategy still offline), not a swing strategy. You are discribing a way using swing strategy (manual trading), in fact the system uses trend (trading at the end of short time frame trend also listening towards the main trend). Therefore the system is using much more other indi’s to place it’s trades because there are still a lot of upswings in the downtrend of > 100 pips and our stop is at 70 pips.
And, by analysing the records of 2013,2014 and pipship1, … well you know the answer is negative.
Fundamental trading was ‘easy’ when eurusd was going down and down and down, but most of the time fundamentals are not that strong. You need a more advanced way to beat the market.
Then… pff a lot of text (are you paying me for this?)
Then, backtest is not third party information. The backtests have been made to control for errors in the strategy. (to develop the strategy)
Still, the tests posted at the website can’t be adjusted. I see similar tests made by mt4 posted many times at the web to show performance of strategies in the past. (MQL4: automated forex trading, strategy tester and custom indicators with MetaTrader for example) The backtests can be added as additional proof of a working strategy, but of course live numbers of third parties (also available) are more valid.
Last but not least you said the moment you changed one line of code that entire tests were no longer valid. That’s why i’m using FIXED codes. When I’m changing one rule, I need to redo the whole testing. I’m using 5 VPS servers at the moment of capacity of about 4 normal PC’s. Then I still need two months to test all strategies used. Strategies are able to adapt themselves towards high range or low range prices. All parameters are controlled for price changes. (for example USDJPY going higher and higher…) I hope I will be able to use the robot the following 6 years. (contracts with partners for 6 years) Maybe new backtests are needed (and parameter adjustment) when trading 2 to 3 years. Therefore we will monitor the performance of the system carefully although it’s able to work 100% automated.
I hope the above information will be helpfull for making own assumptions whether or not this system is safe to use for real money.
Greetz.
You typed a lot of words but completely ignored my fundamental question. So I shall try this again with one question per post.
Three asides, first, I never mentioned the EURUSD, I mentioned the USD only, there is a difference.
Second, I never said that the EURUSD is now changing to an uptrend. It is deceptive of you to say that I did. The fact is I am still shorting the EURUSD and was an actively adding to my short positions all day.
Finally you said, “Of course, when you do not feel confident about the performance of pipship strategy 2, please stay aside!”. No, I will not stand aside. You have posted on a public forum for the sole explicit purpose of soliciting new business. Despite this marketing being against the rules of this forum you have been allowed to do so. I shall not stand aside, I shall ask pertinent and specific questions.
Now do not be distracted by the asides, please address my first fundamental question of sample size. A long winded explanation is not needed, simply a number will do. I do not need your evaluation of the question, just an answer.
Can you please lower your voice a bit. 'deceptive etc.'
I think it’s clear that i’m just trying to answer your question as good as I can. I’m not that trilled by your post…
I said there is enough data at the moment to see ‘the system’ works. In general it’s difficult to say just a number. There are more factors to consider than just sample size of trades made. Most important is strandardisation. Without standardisation not one sample size is sufficient.
I know my systems will perform when I see 2 years of backtests with good numbers. A couple of months of data corresponding to the backtests made are only adding towards a nice feeling of trust in the system. When also the rest of the company (investor etc) feels good about the performance, clients will be added towards the system. (1 april till first of june is period first intern clients will be connected)
Other systems at zulu? Please stay away. No pro’s. No standardisation. No adaquate sample size because whole basis of pro trading is not present.
So to answer your question completely…
-standardisation???
(how to spot standardisation? -> try to read the graph, same system used over time? same stop used? same way to cope with DD’s? Automated system used?)
-Then data??? Sample size is not a sufficient way to analyse a system. Some traders do make 300 trades a month, some only 10.
Data of 2 years need to be present. (backtest or live test, does not matter for me personally, I understand most of customers give priority to live data)
No one is able to trade constant and with high performance for 2 years just gambling or trading ‘naked’.
So here you are. TWO YEARS OF DATA.
I am not here to thrill you. You are being deceptive or stupid. In post #388 you were quite happy to call hibra68 a “stupid newbie” and later (as you do with most of your posts) went back and edited that out. You are willing to hand out insults but do not like them directed at yourself. You were deceptive in attributing an opinion about the EURUSD to me that was in fact false.
You want one million euro with a minimum deposit of 5,000 euro from each investor so I am going to question what you do. If you want my money then you will explain it all in detail. This thread is nothing but pure marketing for your proposed investment fund.
You do not have a clue about testing data and statistical significance. This is probably why your previous system “blew-up” (yet you still claim that it is a valid part of your current testing on new code). That is another item that is deceptive and the continued reliance on that data is complete rubbish.
You have gone on about the money you need for lawyers to set up the corporation and the business structure.
Instead of a lawyer hire an actuary or statistician to calculate sample size for you and explain it to you. Your 119 trades is completely inadequate for testing a system of the scope you have asked people to invest in. The length of time of data and the number of data points are mutually exclusive and both are required. Stating simply a length of time for back-testing is not a proper sample, it is amateurish and clearly demonstrates you are not deserving of the million euro you seek from investors.
You have approximately four months of data on zulutrade, so even by your own fallacious standard of 24 months you fall well short. Some trading methodologies use monthly data, as such two years of data would not be anything close to sufficient.
My first question still stands and you have yet to answer it. It is quite sad that such a straight forward simple question is met with long winded bluster and a complete lack of substance.
[B]What is the sample size that you believe is needed to test your system?[/B]
I do not understand why when backtesting a strategy everything seems to work out perfectly, but when it comes to the real deal, you can never be sure. Surprises never cease.
I have not been around to reply. So I’m replying now.
I still don’t get the idea of creating this huge company with millions of dollars to invest in the forex market(assuming that you have the near-holy grail as it looks like it). The more money you risk the bigger the hole you are digging yourself into if things go wrong. So If I had the near-holy grail system that you have, I would just start small and make my first million in 5 years. After all looking back 40 years I’ve never made a million in 5 years :).
So the only thing that comes to my mind is a ponzi scheme. Get people to invest thousands of dollars into a holy grail system until the whole thing goes under.
ve n
believe what you want to believe. I don’t care.
I dont care if people think it’s a scam or think it’s the holy grail. Maybe it’s somewhere in between.
I know what I’m capable of and I know a new hype like 2013 is just minutes away.
In the beginning, I made this thread to become stronger. As a designer or programmer myself. To learn from critisism. Now I feel strong. I do have the oppertunity to work with bigger parties so why not? Why only sitting, waiting, wishing at home for six years?
Sometimes we do have an intern discussion about just trading ourselves. But, It’s not only money that’s motivating. Not at all actually. It’s fun to see sceptism. People who don’t know were to put this. People start to think!
(and of course it’s fun to see that more and more people in finance become willing to cooperate with us, but… )
I’m not the only one having a system like this. The capitalistic system as we know it today is insane (i think). That’s another think I would like to demonstrate by doing this in public. By setting up a small business and doing the unaccepted.
I hope we start to think about greed, about money, about ourselves, egotism and how to devide money in the world? Financial markets do have purposes, but today, I think there are clear indications that the way we distribute money globally has reached it’s limits. I hope we start to think about how to set up a next generation economic system.
See you next month when sheeps go crazy…