What’s your 2021 **Market Forecast? Any pairs you are looking at? How you plan on adjusting to the market? Anything you want to work on? How was 2020? Biggest wins and lessons? Anything you feel like sharing? 
PIPEROUS NEW YEAR!!!
1 Like
I’m positive that for at least the first 6 months in 2021 the markets will act as they are currently doing, and only settle down when Biden is in place, Trump is sectioned, and Covid 19 vaccine has been successfully distributed globally.
At least UK Brexit negotiations with the EU has been resolved, albeit there will be hiccups along the way to relative economic stability. Whether that occurs in 2021 is debatable.
My main lesson learnt is to cut losing trades early, even before hitting the S/L While I hate losing, as do many traders, I hate losing big, more. I regard that cut off as a saving that can be used to fund another and better trade awaiting.
For a mini lot intraday scalping trader, and with a leverage of 100:1 my single biggest trending win was 79 Pips.
2 Likes
I’m going to be much more focused on the GBP this year.
Of course partly due to Brexit actually happening, but also the potential for continued dollar weakness.
I think Gold will have a bumper year Silver too.
2 Likes
I will be running 3 strategies - one to capture limited sections of long-term trends, one to bracket possible break-outs from non-trending chart set-ups plus resuming London opening range break-out trades on GBP/USD (assuming Biden’s inauguration stands). Nothing else planned intra-day.
2 Likes
Another strategy I have only toyed with is a simple 1-day trend-following approach. Its relies on the tendency of charts with the 20EMA above the 50EMA to print more days with higher closes than with lower closes. The win rate with this strategy is 55-60%.
As with all trend-following, losing periods occur if the trend starts to flip-flop, so an additional entry filter might probably be a good idea.
1 Like
I think so too. I will keep selling that USD for now.
I have been hearing this as well, so I’ll be watching Gold. There’s also been talk of the SPX500 hitting $4300 this year as well (Goldman & Sachs). But again, talk is cheap (and can also be expensive).
If 2020 has taught me anything, it’s that you need different strategies for different market conditions. I’ve been focusing on a strategy using daily candle analysis, with very good results over the past few weeks and am excited about the upcoming trading year.
Good luck to all!
2 Likes
@steve369 @tommor @MattyMoney @Johnscott31 It’s almost the end of the year, I just thought of checking in. How is it going?
1 Like
Its a long and grinding road.
1 Like
@CHANCYKIBOMBWE, Survived another year, so that’s saying something!
USD strengthened significantly through the second half:
Gold has fallen a bit:
SPX 500 has just passed $4700, I hope everyone was long:
I’ve added a short-term strategy using 1 & 4H candles and SR levels. And I’ve adjusted my strategy using daily candles so that I’m only trading with the trend. I’ve found the bulk of my losses are trying to catch reversals.
Thanks for checking in! How’s your trading going?
Here’s to a profitable 2022!
2 Likes
wow, that’s amazing.
On the plus side: Another year of learning how not to lose money. I’ve handed one large live account to my pro friend to manage. Since June, he’s earnt a 15% profit over the six green months, heading for a 30% APR. I’ve compounded the original balance each month by adding small deposits as well.
Two tips of his:
- Backtest for patterns, they are far more replicated than most traders think.
- Platform trade: by entering a trade with minimal lot size and with close S/Ls and, if successfull , place further trades with larger lot sizes.
I’ve taken that one stage further by opening pending BUY & SELL stop orders where I would like price action to hit and trigger my trend following trade.
On the negative side:
I blew a CTI prop firm’s evaluation account. Cost me £200. Good points, they use live broker accounts, and give you one year to make your target by trading at least 30 days. Bad points, their MT4 platform needs updating and the broker charges commission on top of the spread, which is so-so.
.After that loss, I decided to manage a live mini ($63) account to strengthen discipline, patience, and money mansgement. To date, four months later, with daily trades, I’m still up and walking very slowly to blowing that as well. Trading 0.01 lot sizes is tough work with little margin to spare.
What I learnt, and IMO, it would be optimal to live trade a $500 minimum account size. This gives breathing space for each trade to run and caters for consecutive losses, which happen to us all.
No wonder 73% of newbies blow their smaller accounts as it’s emotionally difficult to manage and avoid overtrading, revenge trading, poor risk and money management, and ‘You only have one life’ gambling mindset.
Still looking forward to next year. Perseverance is my middle name.
Best of luck, peeps.
1 Like
Yes, I agree. I’m also experimenting with Heiken Ashi candles for trend trading. It does tend to eliminate noise with a smoother price action.
While No Nonsense YOU Tube says it’s one of the worst signal indicators - there is advantages when pairs are trending. Green candles with bottom wicks making higher highs, and Red candle with top wicks making lower lows. Other shapes and colour mixtures, and no wicks could indicate a weakening of trend.
1 Like
I’ve been otherwise engaged with nontrading activities - and have hardly followed the markets. Looking to make a renewed effort after the new year.
I do have a current position on Wheat but really have been enjoying a break from the markets.
I really do need to post something on my blog soon though - starting to feel well guilty.
1 Like
i dont usually discuss politics in public, but since you brought it up…
i remember before biden took office, he stated that he would not use executive orders because that is what dictators do… but then as soon as he sat down in the oval office, he signed a dozen or more executive orders.
our government is now shelling out a trillion dollars here and two trillion there and there is no sign of slowing down… it is my best guess that these trillions of dollars went directly into someone’s pockets… this will entirely bankrupt the united states and will turn this country into a third world sh-thole. what do i mean when i say sh-thole? well, imagine if all of our benefits systems were to simply dry up… for example food stamps and social security, etc… ie, there is gonna be a bunch of broke and hungry people walking around like zombies.
this may seem like i am ranting about politics, but instead i am really explaining the current fundamentals that apply to the trading of the currencies.
there is a new riddle being passed around…
question: what is the difference between a drug cartel and a government?
answer: the drug cartel doesnt force you to take their drugs.
dink.
1 Like