2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn.com

Commercial Content Analysts
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Stability in the Forex Market

The Mexican peso has been exhibiting a remarkable level of stability in recent times. It’s been hovering around 17.2 against the US Dollar, closely aligning with a one-month peak of 17.1 it reached on November 20th. This steadiness in the currency market is particularly noteworthy as it comes at a time when investors and market analysts are closely watching the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) for their next financial moves.

Insights from the Bank of Mexico

The minutes from Banxico’s latest meeting provide some interesting insights. Policymakers at the central bank have recognized that while inflation — the rate at which prices for goods and services rise — remains a significant concern, there are indications that it’s starting to slow down. This deceleration in inflation has led to discussions about potential rate cuts, possibly in 2024.

However, it’s not all straightforward. The central bank has adjusted its inflation forecast for 2024 upwards, from 3.50% to 3.87%. Although this revision suggests a higher rate of inflation than initially anticipated, it’s still within a manageable range. Keeping inflation under control is crucial for economic stability, and Banxico aims to maintain it close to their 3.00% target.

Another key point to note is the mid-month headline inflation for November, which stood slightly above expectations at 4.32%. This figure marks a noticeable increase in consumer prices since January 2023, as per the mid-month gauge.

Economic Implications

The stability of the Mexican peso is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy. A steady currency can boost investor confidence and make international trade more predictable. However, the looming inflation and the central bank’s cautious approach to rate cuts indicate that the economy is still navigating through some challenges.

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There is no connection between these two corporates, and if there is, it is not your concern. Mr Zimmerman is our content write, not the CEO.

As we stated before, we do not respond to trolls. You are welcome to share your opinions as much as you like, but we will no longer engage in a conversation with you. With years of experience in engaging with traders worldwide, we can distinguish a jealous troll in a blink of an eye. That’s why we are ignoring you.

Unlike you, we have jobs and careers to attend to, as well as customers to please and make sure they receive the best trading experience in this rival market.

705

Turkish Manufacturing Confidence Hits a Low

In recent months, Turkey has witnessed a notable decline in business morale, reaching its lowest point in nearly a year as of November 2023. This downturn is primarily reflected in the manufacturing confidence index, which saw a decrease from 103.3 in October to 100.2 in November. This figure is significant as it represents the lowest level since December of the previous year, indicating a shift in the business climate.

Analyzing the Key Factors

Several factors contribute to this decline in confidence. Firstly, there’s a noticeable drop in expectations for production, which decreased from 106.6 in October to 108.5. This decline suggests a reduction in anticipated manufacturing output, which can impact the overall economic productivity. Secondly, the outlook for export order books also showed a downturn, moving from 107.9 to a lower 100.3. This change hints at a possible decrease in foreign demand for Turkish products, which can affect the country’s trade balance and revenue from exports.

However, it’s not all negative. There’s a silver lining as the anticipations for total employment over the next twelve months have risen slightly from 109.5 to 111. This increase could mean that businesses are still planning to expand their workforce, possibly indicating a belief in future growth or stability.

Another area of concern is the decrease in fixed investment expenditure, which fell from 118 to 115.6. This reduction may imply a hesitancy in committing to long-term investments, possibly due to uncertainty in the market or economic forecasts. Additionally, the general business situation also experienced a slight downturn, moving from 92.8 to 91.7.

Economic Implications

The decline in business confidence in Turkey can have both direct and indirect effects on the economy. Lower confidence can lead to reduced investment and production, which in turn can slow down economic growth. The decrease in export expectations suggests potential challenges in the international market, which could affect Turkey’s trade balance and foreign exchange earnings. However, the increase in employment expectations might cushion some of these negative impacts by supporting consumer spending and economic activity.

Assessment and Recommendations

While the decrease in business morale poses certain challenges, it also opens opportunities for strategic planning and adaptation. Businesses might need to diversify their markets, improve efficiency, or innovate to maintain competitiveness. Policymakers could also consider measures to boost business confidence, such as providing financial incentives, improving trade relations, or investing in infrastructure.

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Madrid Stocks Cautiously Higher

Madrid’s stock market exhibited a cautious uptrend, with the IBEX 35 index slightly surpassing the 9,900 mark on Friday. This movement marked a continuation of the rising trend for the third consecutive session, touching the highs of 2020. Market participants are keenly observing the influx of economic data and any indications of forthcoming decisions by major central banks. There is a heightened focus on the scheduled public appearances of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos. Despite this, there remains an underlying concern about a possible economic deceleration. This apprehension is fueled by Germany’s shrinking GDP and the persistently contracting Eurozone PMI indices, which remain below the critical 50-point mark.

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NZD Gains Strength as RBNZ Focuses on Inflation

The New Zealand dollar experienced a notable increase this Friday, maintaining a value around $0.605. This marks the second week of significant growth, fueled by expectations that the nation’s central bank will maintain its aggressive stance against persistent inflation in their upcoming end-of-year monetary policy meeting.

In October, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the cash rate steady at 5.5% for the third time in a row. However, they warned that consumer price inflation was still too high. To manage this, they suggested that interest rates might need to remain high for an extended period to bring inflation within the target range of 1 to 3%.

Meanwhile, the recent changes in government in Wellington have led to a shift in policy direction. The new coalition government has revised the central bank’s dual mandate, which previously included both inflation and employment concerns, to now solely focus on price stability.

Over in China, government advisors are preparing for an important annual meeting in December. They’re expected to set the GDP growth targets for the upcoming year, with projections ranging between 4.5% and 5.5%. This move is part of Beijing’s broader strategy to stabilize demand and address the challenges in the real estate sector.

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You don’t sound very sure? (Nor very convincing.)

His Facebook page describes him as the CEO of SolidECN.

Why do you think that’s happened?

And right here he says “I am Zane Zimmerman, the director, and CEO of Solid ECN Securities, and I am happy to address your concern.”

He’s certainly claiming to be the CEO, there, isn’t he?

These are all public representations about your company, made by its staff. But you’re now saying they’re not true?

What’s happened, there?!

I am not a troll.

Just a forum member wondering why so much of what you say here about your business seems so quickly and easily to turn out to be either misleading or plain untrue.

I see that people in other forums where you post are also increasingly concerned about you.

You’re obviously posting here, and in other forums, about both your broker companies, to try to promote them.

Questions, in those circumstances, are obviously legitimate, aren’t they?

You want people to deposit their funds with you, so it’s natural for people to wonder whether how you’re responding to basic-level questions about your business is open and accurate.

It does appear not to be, doesn’t it?

Members of various forums will of course decide such things for themselves, but it seems to me that resorting to calling people “trolls” - a purely personal attack - may not be the best way for you to deal with perfectly legitimate and reasonable questions which arise naturally in response to the public claims you’ve made?

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USDJPY

The Japanese yen remained stable, hovering around 149.5 against the dollar, following a lukewarm market response to new economic data. This data revealed that Japan’s headline inflation rate rose to 3.3% in October, up from 3% in September, marking the highest rate since July. Additionally, initial reports indicated that business activity in Japan experienced a slowdown in November, reaching an 11-month low, particularly due to ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector.

The Bank of Japan, during its October policy meeting, confirmed its dedication to maintaining supportive monetary policies. It made subtle changes to its approach to yield curve control. Specifically, the Bank redefined the 1% level on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) as a flexible “upper bound” rather than a strict limit, and decided to discontinue its commitment to purchase an unlimited number of bonds to maintain this level.

On an international scale, investors are also closely monitoring the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This focus comes in the wake of varied economic indicators emerging from the US, which continue to influence global financial decisions and trends.

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what?! i’m not surprised people in other forums are concerned, too - how do two companies (with so many other very unusual and specific things in common, too) come to be sharing a telephone number, if there’s “no connection” between them?? something, surely, “isn’t quite right,” here??? :open_mouth: :sweat_smile: :dizzy_face:

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711

Swiss Franc Climbs High: November 2023’s Financial Outlook

In November, the Swiss franc reached 0.88 against the US dollar, marking its strongest position in over two months. This rise was primarily influenced by the widespread weakening of the dollar, spurred by a series of weaker economic indicators. These indicators have led to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might start reducing interest rates by the second quarter of 2024.

Within Switzerland, the economic landscape also contributed to the franc’s trajectory. The country’s restrained inflation rate, which remained under 2% for the fifth month running in October, coupled with a stagnating economy, limited the support from monetary policy for the franc. Specifically, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Switzerland showed no growth in the second quarter.

Moreover, the easing of tensions in the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Gaza played a role in reducing the demand for the franc as a safe-haven currency. This situation led to the franc trading near its lowest in four months against the euro. Despite these various factors, the franc is projected to end 2023 stronger against both the dollar and the euro. This strength is largely attributed to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) reduction in foreign currency reserves, which dropped to their lowest in nearly six years in October.

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CAD Strengthens as Inflation and Growth Slow

As November drew to a close, the Canadian dollar found itself trading at approximately 1.37 against the US dollar, marking a notable recovery from its near one-year low point of 1.386, recorded on October 31st.

This resurgence can be largely attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, following indications that the Federal Reserve’s period of monetary tightening might be drawing to a close.

In Canada, the inflation rate took a surprising dip to 3.1% in October, a figure notably lower than the Bank of Canada’s projected rate of about 3.5% for the upcoming year. This decrease in inflation, when viewed alongside the slowing pace of the Canadian economy, is fueling speculation that the Bank of Canada might put a pause on any further increases in interest rates.

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What to Expect Next Week - Nov 27th

The US will have a busy week with many important economic indicators and events. The main ones are:

  • PCE prices, personal income and spending: These will show how much inflation, income and consumption changed in October. They are closely watched by the Fed and the markets as they reflect the health of the economy and the impact of the pandemic.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI: This will measure the activity and sentiment of the manufacturing sector in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. The manufacturing sector has been recovering from the Covid-19 shock, but faces challenges from supply chain disruptions and labor shortages.
  • Fed speeches: Several Fed officials, including Chair Powell, will speak at different events throughout the week. They will likely provide more insights into the Fed’s views on the economic outlook, inflation, and the tapering of its asset purchases.

Other notable releases and events in the US include:

  • CB Consumer Confidence: This will gauge the level of confidence and optimism of consumers in November. Consumer confidence is a key driver of spending and growth, especially during the holiday season.
  • Q3 GDP growth rate (2nd estimate): This will revise the preliminary estimate of the annualized growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter. The first estimate showed a 2% increase, below market expectations of 2.6%.
  • New and pending home sales: These will report the number of new and existing homes sold in October. They are indicators of the demand and supply conditions in the housing market, which has been affected by rising prices, low inventory, and higher mortgage rates.
  • Q3 corporate profits: This will reveal the earnings of US corporations in the third quarter. Corporate profits are a measure of the profitability and performance of the business sector.

Meanwhile, other countries and regions will also have some significant developments to watch. These include:

  • Monetary policy decisions: The central banks of South Korea and New Zealand will announce their interest rate decisions. Both are expected to keep their rates unchanged, but may signal their future policy stance amid rising inflation pressures and Covid-19 risks.
  • Speeches from ECB and BoJ officials: Several officials from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will deliver speeches at various occasions. They will likely comment on the economic situation and outlook of their respective regions, as well as their monetary policy actions and plans.
  • Inflation rates: Several countries and regions will release their inflation data for October. These include Germany, the Euro Area, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and Australia. Inflation has been rising globally due to higher energy and commodity prices, supply chain bottlenecks, and pent-up demand.
  • GDP growth rates: Some countries will publish their GDP growth rates for the third quarter. These include Turkey, India, Canada, and Switzerland. These will show how their economies performed amid the pandemic and its variants, as well as the vaccination progress and the fiscal and monetary support.
  • China’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs: These will indicate the level of activity and confidence of the manufacturing and services sectors in China in November. China’s economy has been slowing down due to the Delta variant, regulatory crackdowns, power shortages, and debt woes.
  • Manufacturing PMIs: Other countries will also release their manufacturing PMIs for November. These include South Korea, India, Russia, Italy, and Canada. These will reflect the state and outlook of the manufacturing sector in these countries, which are influenced by the global demand and supply conditions.
  • Germany’s GFK consumer confidence and retail sales: These will measure the confidence and spending of German consumers in November and October, respectively. Germany is the largest economy in the Euro Area and its consumer behavior has implications for the rest of the region.
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Malaysian Palm Oil Market Overview

In recent trading, Malaysian palm oil futures were seen hovering around 3,900 MYR per ton. This movement indicates an effort to bounce back from the recent decline in prices, which had dropped to a low of 3,886 MYR. The potential recovery is spurred by positive signs in export figures.

Export Trends

Data from AmSpec Agri Malaysia, an independent inspection company, reveals that between November 1 and 25, there was a 7.2% increase in the export of Malaysian palm oil products, reaching 1.15 million tons compared to 1.08 million tons in the period from October 1 to 25. Similarly, Intertek Testing Services, another cargo surveyor, reported a 13.6% increase in exports during the same time frame, with figures rising to 1.26 million tons from 1.11 million tons.

Factors Influencing Market Dynamics

However, the upward trend in palm oil futures is being restrained by several factors. Notably, there’s a decline in competing Dalian oil prices, and there are concerns about upcoming economic activity data from China for October. The uncertainty surrounding China’s economic indicators and the impending rainy season are causing market caution.

Moreover, the Indian market, a significant buyer of Malaysian palm oil, is reducing its orders for December and January. This decrease in demand is attributed to the rising cost of palm oil and the negative profit margins faced by refiners, who have recently made substantial imports.

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Turkish Lira Hits Record Low Despite Aggressive Rate Hikes

The Turkish lira remains stagnant at an all-time low, sitting at 28.9 against the US dollar. This comes even after Turkey’s central bank made an unexpected move, raising interest rates significantly by 500 basis points in its latest November meeting. This decision surpassed investors’ expectations, who had predicted a rise of only 250 basis points.

Trend of Depreciation

In the last three months, the Turkish lira has been on a steady decline, setting new daily lows. The average daily loss has been slightly over 0.1%. This pattern suggests a controlled devaluation, likely orchestrated by the central bank. To manage this situation, the bank has implemented stricter reserve requirements for the lira. This step is aimed at pulling liquidity from the interbank market, thereby increasing local interest rates and aligning them more closely with the costs of borrowing lira internationally.

A Steep Drop in Value

Since the beginning of 2023, the Turkish lira has seen a dramatic depreciation, losing over 50% of its value when compared to the US dollar. This significant drop highlights the ongoing economic challenges faced by Turkey.

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AUDUSD Bullish Trend: A Closer Look at the Rising Tide

The current trading session has witnessed a significant rise in the AUDUSD’s value. Notably, the Australian dollar (AUD) has broken above the crucial 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a move that aligns with the top edge of the bullish flag pattern on the daily chart.

As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges closer to overbought conditions, the AUDUSD pair might be gearing up for a phase of range-bound trading, especially above the 65.8% resistance level. Given the heightened demand driving up the AUDUSD price, now may not be the best time for investors to take on long positions.

A Word of Caution for Retail Investors

Retail traders should approach with caution. A prudent strategy would be to wait for the AUDUSD pair to dip back to the midpoint of the bullish flag pattern. This area, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, presents a potentially favorable entry point for those looking to buy.

717

GBPJPY: A Strong Bullish Momentum

During the most recent trading session, the GBPJPY pair maintained its upward trajectory, achieving a significant milestone by surpassing the median line of its bullish flag pattern. This development strongly highlights a continued positive trend for GBPJPY, signaling a robust bullish momentum.

With this upward movement, the focus for traders is now set on the GBPJPY pair reaching the upper boundary of the bullish flag. This target is the next critical point for the ongoing bullish trend.

The prevailing trend for GBPJPY can be described as distinctly bullish, especially as the pair remains actively trading within the boundaries of the bullish flag. This trend is expected to persist as long as the pair continues its movements within this pattern.

718

Natural Gas Futures Hit 12-Week Low: Factors Behind the Fall

US natural gas futures have witnessed a significant drop, falling more than 5% towards $2.7/MMBtu, the lowest in twelve weeks. This decrease is attributed to factors such as high storage levels, record production, and a decrease in demand.

Storage and Production Factors

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a lower-than-expected withdrawal from gas storage for the week ending November 17, at only 7 billion cubic feet (bcf). This figure is substantially less than the 60 bcf withdrawal during the same week last year and below the five-year average decline of 53 bcf. Currently, gas stockpiles in the US are about 7% above the typical level for this time of year.

Impact of Weather on Demand

One key factor contributing to the surplus is the warmer-than-average winter weather, resulting in a reduced need for heating. Forecasts suggest a 4% decrease in heating degree days compared to the last 10-year average, leading to a 2% drop in space heating consumption from the five-year average. Additionally, average gas output in November has increased to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), up from the previous record of 104.2 bcfd in October.

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GBPUSD Soars: Overbought Signals Emerge

Today’s trading session saw the GBPUSD climb sharply. The pair broke through the top boundary of its bullish trend, indicating strong buying interest. At the same time, the RSI indicator moved into an area typically considered overbought, while the Awesome Oscillator pointed towards a possible divergence. These signals hint at a potential downward adjustment in the GBPUSD’s price in the next trading session. It’s expected that the pair might give back a portion of its recent gains, possibly retesting the 23.6% Fibonacci level and then maybe the 38.2% level.

Moreover, these levels could act as appealing entry points for buyers looking to capitalize on the uptrend, suggesting the bullish momentum may persist.

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Analyzing Yuan’s Recent Rally: PBOC Strategies and Market Responses

The offshore yuan steadied around 7.15 per dollar, hovering near its strongest levels in four months as the People’s Bank of China stressed the need to keep the currency stable in a quarterly policy implementation report. The central bank said it would “resolutely correct pro-cyclical market activities, deal with behaviors that disrupt market orders, prevent overshooting risks in the currency and avoid the formation of one-sided and self-reinforced market expectations.” The yuan rallied recently as PBOC has been setting stronger-than-expected midpoint rates, in what analysts attributed to an official attempt to support the currency. Investors now look ahead to Chinese manufacturing activity data this week for further guidance. Meanwhile, latest data showed that industrial profits in the country continued to shrink in November, but at the slowest pace in almost a year.

These support zones also offer attractive bid prices for bullish traders to establish new long positions, potentially continuing the bullish trend.

721

GBPJPY Update: Bullish Flag Dynamics and Key Resistance Levels

The GBPJPY currency pair recently reached the R2 resistance level but then dropped back to the middle of its bullish flag pattern. This pattern indicates a generally upward trend, with R1 serving as a key support level. If the currency pair breaks above the R2 level, its next goal might be reaching R3, which is in line with the top edge of the flag.

As long as the R1 level remains unbroken, it supports the upward trend. However, if this support level is breached, there’s a chance that the GBPJPY pair could fall towards the lower boundary of the flag, a movement further backed by the monthly pivot point.

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@SOLIDECN - please could you reply to my question above?

it wasn’t a “rhetorical” one - people both here and elsewhere are clearly concerned about the statements you make about your business - that must surely concern you, too?

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