2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn.com

Commercial Content Analysts
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Market Update: Anticipation Before Fed Announcement

As the financial community awaits the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates, a sense of anticipation builds. The general consensus is that there won’t be a change to the current rates. Investors are keenly waiting to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for hints about future monetary policies. Meanwhile, there’s buzz around Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as it reveals long-term sales goals for its AI-focused processors.

Federal Reserve’s Decision in Focus

The Federal Reserve in Washington is poised to announce its latest stance on interest rates. It’s predicted that the rates will remain between 5.25% and 5.50%. The market’s attention will pivot to the Fed’s statement and Powell’s press conference for any forward-looking statements. The Fed is balancing efforts to manage inflation without stalling the economy. There’s curiosity about how long the heightened rates will persist, especially with recent surges in Treasury yields affecting the stock market. Analysts are suggesting the Fed might pause to evaluate the effectiveness of its current policies in curbing inflation.

Market Movements Before the Fed’s Update

Stock futures indicate a slight dip as traders anticipate the Fed’s announcement. Key stock indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq showed downward movements in early trading. This follows a slight rally that capped off a turbulent October, which saw declines across major stock indices.

Spotlight on AMD’s Revenue Forecast

AMD’s shares saw mixed reactions after-hours due to its revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter and its first sales projection for the MI300 chip. While the forecast was below expectations, there’s optimism about its potential in the AI market. This news comes alongside earnings announcements from other major players in the tech and consumer goods sectors.

China’s Manufacturing Downturn

In China, manufacturing activity has seen a downturn, according to the latest Caixin data. This contraction reflects weaker domestic and international demand, with a continued decrease in export orders due to challenging economic conditions in key markets.

Oil Prices on the Rise Amidst Fed Expectations

In the commodities market, oil prices have marginally increased. Traders are exercising caution as they await the Fed’s decision. There’s also attention on geopolitical tensions that could impact oil supply and prices.

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GBPAUD

The GBPAUD couldn’t hold above the weekly pivot (1.917) in the 4H chart, and the pair slumped to the significant support at 1.9. Moreover, the GBPAUD formed a bullish long wick candlestick pattern in the daily chart, and the RSI indicator shows divergence. These signals can be interpreted as a trend reversal or an imminent correction in the price.

S1 provides support to the bullish scenario. As long as the price holds above 1.899, it is likely for the GBPAUD price to rise and test the weekly pivot again.

On the other hand, if bears close below S1, the bullish scenario is invalidated and the path to S2 will be cleared.

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GBPAUD

The GBPAUD has broken out of the bearish channel, and the bears are currently testing the 1.895 support level. The market bias remains bearish as the pair is trading below the Ichimoku cloud.

Zooming in on the 4-hour GBPAUD chart provides a detailed insight into the forecast. The decline has approached the lower boundary of the bearish channel on the 4H chart. With the RSI indicator nearing the oversold territory, a pullback to the channel’s median line could be anticipated. Additionally, given the current selling pressure, the next target would likely be the 1.884 support level.

Conversely, the 1.917 level acts as the pivot. The bearish scenario would be negated if the price breaks above this pivot or the upper line of the channel.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD currency pair has been trading in a range from 1.051 to 1.068 since October 23. The pair formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart and is currently trading above the monthly pivot. Since the pair hovers below the Ichimoku cloud, we will be looking for selling opportunities.

The RSI indicator crossed above the level of 50, indicating that the price of EURUSD might increase to R1 (1.067 resistance). This level offers a decent price to enter short, especially if the market forms a long wick candlestick, a doji, or a bearish engulfing pattern.

Another scenario for short trading in EURUSD is to wait for the pair to break S1 (1.049 support). In this case, the pace of decline in the pair would increase and the next target would be S2 (1.042), followed by S3 (1.032).

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EURJPY Technical Analysis

The EURJPY currency pair is trading within a daily bullish channel and it tested the middle line of the channel in the previous day’s candle. Today, the EURJPY had a pullback to the pivot. With the RSI indicator hovering above the 50 level, it is likely that the bulls will push the EURJPY price to R1 (162.7), followed by the upper line of the channel or R2 (165.0).

The main support for our bullish EURJPY forecast is S1 (156.28). If this level breaks, the uptrend is likely to end and we might see a trend reversal. However, this is unlikely due to the Bank of Japan’s current interest policy.

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EURAUD Forecast

The EURAUD pair is trading within a weekly bullish channel and above the Ichimoku cloud. This indicates that the trend is bullish, and we should look for buying opportunities in this currency pair.

When we zoom into the EURAUD 4H chart, we see that the bulls added buying pressure when the pair’s decline reached the 1.6455 resistance level. Currently, it is testing the 1.6563 resistance level. With the RSI indicator increasing in value and the Awesome Oscillator showing a green bar, if the pair can close above 1.6563, it will pave the way for EURAUD to reach 1.6700. This level aligns with the upper band of the young bearish channel.

The 1.6455 level serves as support for this bullish scenario. If it breaks, the bullish scenario becomes invalid.

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FTX Bitcoin Theft: New Movement Detected

A new chapter unfolds in the ongoing FTX Bitcoin theft saga. Blockchain analysis group PeckShield has alerted the community with a recent discovery. They’ve traced another batch of Bitcoin, which was part of the assets stolen from the now-defunct FTX.

The FTX Bitcoin theft has seen the hacker orchestrate a move of about 288.8 Bitcoin, currently valued at nearly $10 million.

Evaluating the Extent of the FTX Bitcoin Theft

Looking back, the once-prominent cryptocurrency exchange FTX crumbled in November last year. Amidst the chaos, an anonymous hacker seized the moment, orchestrating a heist that resulted in the loss of roughly $500 million in cryptocurrencies. This individual didn’t waste time, quickly converting the stolen assets into 180,000 Ethereum, which were then scattered to 12 separate wallets. At the time of this distribution, the Ethereum amassed was worth about $200 million.

The aftermath of the FTX Bitcoin theft turned the hacker into a significant Ethereum stakeholder. In a strategic move later that November, the hacker converted 50,000 ETH to Ren Bitcoin (RenBTC), a variant of Bitcoin on the Ethereum network.

Recent Attempts to Liquidate Stolen Ethereum

U.Today has reported on attempts made this year to launder the stolen Ethereum. The FTX Bitcoin theft perpetrator tried to exchange the Ethereum for tBTC on the ThorSwap DeFi platform in early October. The platform promptly shut down to prevent this, highlighting the vulnerability of DeFi systems to such exploitation.

Undeterred, the hacker pivoted to the Threshold Network, successfully transferring the Ethereum into the Bitcoin network. At that point, the FTX Bitcoin theft culprit had approximately 110,000 ETH in their possession, worth about $180 million.

Following the suspension of ThorSwap, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser took the opportunity to critique DeFi for being “heavily centralized,” in contrast to his views on the decentralization of Bitcoin.

Substantial Ethereum Shifts to US Exchanges

In a related development, cryptocurrency tracking firm Whale Alert has noted large Ethereum movements. In recent activity linked to the FTX Bitcoin theft, substantial sums of Ethereum were transferred to major US exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken.

Despite the tumultuous market, Ethereum showed impressive growth of 18.14% from October 20 to October 26, reaching a high of $1,848. This increase paralleled Bitcoin’s climb above $34,000. Post-surge, Ethereum recorded a modest 2.84% decrease but continues to maintain its strength around the $1,800 threshold, still feeling the ripples of the FTX Bitcoin theft.a

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LUNA Coin Analysis Amidst Market Turbulence

Despite the unpredictable nature of Bitcoin, which has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, there remains a resilient sense of optimism among crypto investors. LUNA coin, in particular, has come under the spotlight as it faces the brunt of Bitcoin’s price swings. The analysis reveals that LUNA coin has tested the critical support level of $0.437 on multiple occasions, leading to a complete reversal of its previously secured gains. This has raised pertinent questions about the coin’s durability in the face of short-term market speculation.

The trading volume for LUNA coin has seen a downturn, a factor that could compel crypto exchanges to undertake significant strategic decisions regarding the coin’s listing and trading mechanisms. This shift is noticeable as the market progresses towards a post-2024 era, anticipated to be free from the burden of insolvent tokens—a stark contrast to the volume-centric bear markets and their accompanying regulations.

Should LUNA coin’s valuation slide below the crucial threshold of $0.437, the analysis suggests that it could enter a precarious phase, potentially leading to further devaluation towards the $0.387 level, having to first breach intermediary resistances at $0.412 and $0.405. Such a downturn would mark unprecedented low points for the coin, challenging the fortitude of investors.

This article underscores the inherent hope that continues to fuel crypto investors’ enthusiasm, even as they weather the storm of Bitcoin volatility and its cascading effects on altcoins, including LUNA coin. The analysis serves to equip investors with insights into the coin’s performance and prospects within the volatile crypto market.

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EURNZD Outlook: Downward Momentum Gains Traction

The EURNZD currency pair is currently facing a challenge at the 1.798 pivot point, having already descended below the Kernel line on the daily chart. The RSI’s crossing of the middle line signals an intensifying bearish outlook for the EURNZD.

Detailed Analysis on the 4-hour Chart

For a more detailed view, we shift our focus to the 4-hour chart. Here, the market trend is clearly bearish, with EURNZD trading under the Ichimoku cloud. The pair is currently challenging the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. If it falls below this level, we might witness the fall extend to the 50% and subsequently the 61% Fibonacci retracement levels.

The Ichimoku cloud poses a resistance. To counter the bearish forecast, EURNZD bulls would have to achieve a close above the cloud.

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EURUSD

The EURUSD has made a significant move, breaking out of the range trading box during the recent currency session. This development was anticipated as the pair had previously exited the bearish channel on the daily chart, forming a hammer candlestick pattern in the process. This pattern emerged near the 1.0493 support level in the daily timeframe, signaling a potential shift in momentum.

If the EURUSD can maintain its position above the pivot point, it could indicate a bullish trend. The next target for the EURUSD bulls is the R2 level at 1.082. This could be a key resistance level to watch for traders following the EURUSD. (source)

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Lexeo Therapeutics Hits Big with IPO

Lexeo Therapeutics, a company working on gene therapy, made a big move by collecting $100 million when they started selling shares on the Nasdaq. They set the price at $11 for each share, which was a bit less than what they thought they’d get, between $13 and $15. They even added 91,000 more shares to sell. Although the price was lower, this event has brought new energy to the market for life science companies starting to sell shares to the public.

Investing in Health Advances

Led by Ronald Crystal, Lexeo is putting the money to good use. They’re focusing on their main project, LX2006, which aims to help people with a tough muscle disease called Friedreich’s ataxia. They plan to use $45 million from the money they got for this work. The results of their study should come out in about a year.

They’re also working on LX2020, putting $40 million toward understanding a heart issue that could cause sudden death. Another $10 million is going to LX1001, which is a new treatment they’re working on for Alzheimer’s disease. They hope to have some news on this by the second half of 2024.

Lexeo also got money from Sarepta Therapeutics and raised $185 million from two big rounds of fundraising before going public.

Big banks like J.P. Morgan, Leerink Partners, Stifel, and RBC Capital Markets helped Lexeo get started with selling their shares.

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Solana

SOLUSD experienced a significant price increase in October, surging as high as $47.5 before easing to $34.5. Solana is currently trading around $42.5, with the RSI indicator hovering in the overbought area since October 20. Despite the overbought condition in SOLUSD, the pair hasn’t started a correction yet. This indicates that the Solana market is currently dominated by a bullish bias and is extremely volatile.

Zooming into the Solana 4H chart provides a better insight into the SOLUSD price action. The crypto pair is trading in a bullish channel and appears more organized on the daily chart. Currently, the pair is testing the middle line of the bullish channel and is above the Kernel line of the Lorentzian Classification indicator. The Kernel line supports the bullish scenario, suggesting that the SOLUSD price is likely to rise and test the October high around $46.2.

The R2 level (36.98) supports the bullish scenario. If the pair closes below this level, the bullish scenario is invalidated, and the next bearish target is the pivot.

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Market Response to Federal Reserve Policy

Currencies around the world held steady early in the week. People were waiting to see if the U.S. dollar would keep falling. This comes after the Federal Reserve seemed less strict than before. The dollar measure fell a little to 104.99. The euro was up a bit at $1.0738. Last week, the dollar fell over 1%, its biggest drop since mid-July, hitting a six-week low. Stocks around the world did well too, having their best week in a year. This is because people think the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates anymore.

Other Economic Signs

Weak job numbers in the U.S., not-so-strong manufacturing globally, and lower interest rates for long-term U.S. government bonds also made the dollar weaker. At the same time, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen got stronger. A market analyst named Tina Teng mentioned that usually, when there’s bad news, it ends up being good for the markets. She thinks this could mean the Federal Reserve and other central banks might stop raising interest rates sooner.

Teng believes the dollar could stay weak throughout November.

A Cautious Note from Analysts

But, some analysts, like those at J.P.Morgan, say people should not get too excited about the dollar getting weaker. They think the reasons why the dollar was strong are less now, but they haven’t gone away completely. They might come back and make the dollar strong again. They also say that for the dollar to keep getting weaker, other places like Europe and China need to show they are doing better, which is not quite certain yet.

Interest Rates and Predictions

Interest rates the government pays for borrowing money fell last week. This was after the job and manufacturing data weren’t great, and the head of the Federal Reserve talked about ‘balanced’ risks. The interest rates for 2-year notes have gone down a lot in two weeks, while 10-year rates are near a five-week low. Betting markets now really think the Federal Reserve is done with raising rates. They also think the Federal Reserve might start to lower rates as soon as June.

Global Central Bank Movements

People think that the European Central Bank will lower rates by April, and the Bank of England will do so by August. The Japanese yen went down a little to 149.48 per dollar. Tina Teng thinks that with the dollar’s direction changing and the yen getting stronger from last week, Japan might not need to step in to help its currency.

The British pound is stable at $1.2373. There is important information about Britain’s economy coming this week. Even though the pound went up last week, it’s still lost about 6% in four months.

Gold and Cryptocurrency

The weaker dollar and interest rates have helped gold prices stay high, close to a five-month high. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin stayed at $34,847. The end of the Federal Reserve raising rates has helped it. People are also watching to see if new types of Bitcoin funds for investors will come out. No new funds have been approved yet, but several companies have asked to start them.

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Asian Currencies Climb as US Dollar Falls

Asian currencies are doing better, with the US dollar reaching a low not seen in six weeks. This is because recent reports show that America’s job growth is slow, and the US Federal Reserve might stop increasing interest rates.

Important Economic Updates Ahead

Everyone is now looking at new economic information coming from China and what the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide. These will tell us more about how economies in Asia are doing.

Good Vibes in the Market

People are feeling good about investing after finding out that the US added fewer jobs than expected last month. This slowdown in job growth could mean the US Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates again.

Investors are starting to put their money into Asian markets, which are usually seen as riskier. The Korean won and the Thai baht went up a little. The biggest winner was the Malaysian ringgit, which went up the most among the Southeast Asian currencies.

Japanese Yen’s Standing

The Japanese yen went down a bit, staying below 150 against the dollar. This is even though Japan’s service sector did better than people thought it would in October.

Still, the yen might not do well because the Bank of Japan wants to keep its policies very loose, and the bank’s boss said they’re not changing this approach anytime soon.

Dollar Weakness and What the Fed Might Do Next

After dropping to a low last seen in late September, the dollar got a bit better in Asia. Investors don’t think the US Federal Reserve will raise rates anymore this year.

The pause in rate hikes is good for Asian currencies, but the Fed is expected to keep rates up for a while, which could slow down the growth of these currencies.

Yuan and Aussie Dollar Get Stronger

The Chinese yuan got a bit better, helped by the dollar’s weakness and China’s central bank setting a good rate for it.

People are waiting for China’s trade and inflation numbers, which will give us a clearer picture of how China’s economy is doing.

The Australian dollar is also strong, with everyone thinking the Australian central bank will raise rates because of higher prices and strong sales in stores. The bank has stopped raising rates since May, but they might increase them again if prices keep going up.

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EURHKD Forecast

The EURHKD currency has broken out of the bearish channel. The pair is currently testing the 38.2% level of Fibonacci retracement, while the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought area and signaling divergence. This suggests that there might be a correction, or the continuation of the bearish trend is likely. Therefore, we should be cautious about going long on the currency pair.

Zooming into the EURHKD 4H chart provides a better insight into the price action. The trend is bullish in the 4H chart, and the price has broken out of the bullish channel and is trading in the overbought area. The RSI indicator is also in the overbought area. Please note that the pair has room to rise and test R1 (8.46). The Kernel line and the 8.3 pivot support the bullish scenario. If these levels are breached, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.

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GBPAUD

The GBPAUD currency pair bounced from S1 (1.895 support) and is currently testing the upper line of the bullish channel. The market is bullish with the RSI indicator flipping above the 50 line. However, will the GBPAUD bulls be able to break out of the bearish channel?

Let’s zoom into the 4-hour chart to gain a better insight into the currency pair. The GBPAUD situation on the 4H chart is almost the same as on the daily chart, with one difference. The RSI indicator is showing divergence, which means the market might go into a correction or trend reversal.

With the price holding below R1 (1.919 resistance), it is likely that the downtrend will continue, targeting the 1.905 pivot followed by 1.889 (S1).

On the flip side, if the bulls break out of the bearish channel and manage to close above R1 and hold steady, the road to R2 will be paved. (source)

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EURUSD Forex Trading Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators

The EURUSD forex pair is currently undergoing a critical test at the 1.07 pivot point. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) inching closer to the mid-point of 50, traders are keeping a close eye on the market dynamics.

Should the bears manage to push the price below this level on the 4-hour chart, the next target on the downside is expected to be 1.058. This potential move could signal a shift in market sentiment and a possible strengthening of the USD against the Euro.

However, as long as the EURUSD pair maintains its position above the pivot, the market trend remains bullish. This suggests that the Euro is still holding its ground against the USD.

Stay tuned for more updates on EURUSD technical analysis and forex trading strategies.

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Record Highs in US Household Debt

In the third quarter of 2023, the total household debt in the US saw a 1.3% increase, reaching a new peak of $17.29 trillion.

The rise in debt was seen across various sectors. Mortgage balances climbed to $12.14 trillion, while credit card balances reached $1.08 trillion. Student loan balances and auto loan balances both increased to $1.6 trillion, with the latter maintaining an upward trend that began in 2011. Other balances, encompassing retail credit cards and other consumer loans, remained relatively unchanged at $0.53 trillion.

Delinquency Rates on the Rise

There was also an increase in aggregate delinquency rates, with 3% of the total outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition rates into delinquency rose for most types of debt, with the exception of student loans and home equity lines of credit.

Donghoon Lee, an Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed, noted a significant increase in credit card balances in the third quarter. This aligns with robust consumer spending and real GDP growth.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is currently trading within a narrow bullish channel as per the 4-hour chart. Today’s trading session saw the formation of a long wick candlestick pattern, indicating a potential decline to the lower boundary of the bullish channel.

The market sentiment is predominantly bullish, a scenario that finds support at the S1 level. However, should this level be breached, the next target for the bears would be the S2 level.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has rebounded from the 1.06 pivot point, as anticipated. As long as the pair trades above this pivot, it’s plausible for the EURUSD bulls to target the 1.081 resistance level.

However, if the pivot is broken and the bears close below it in the 4H chart, the bullish outlook will be invalidated, shifting the bearish target to S1.