USDCHF Achieves the Negative Targets
The USDCHF pair succeeded to achieve our suggested negative targets, as it reached 0.9100 level, showing some temporary bullish bias affected by stochastic positivity, waiting to resume the main bearish trend that moves within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, to achieve negative targets that extend to 0.9020.
Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.9215 followed by 0.9275 levels and hold above them. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9080 support and 0.9215 resistance.
ADAUSD - Murray Analysis
The ADA/USD pair has been growing since the beginning of this year within the framework of a general market trend: last week the price rose to the three-month highs to the level of 0.3662 (Murray level [7/8], Fibo retracement 38.2%), after which it corrected to the area of 0.3300, where it is now trading.
A breakdown of the level of 0.3173 (Murray level [5/8], Fibo retracement 23.6%) may lead to the development of a decline to the level of 0.2929 (Murray level [4/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. If the level of 0.3418 (Murray level [6/8]) is broken out, a correction to the area of 0.3662 (Murray level [7/8]), 0.3906 (Murray level [8/8]), 0.4150 (Murray level [+1/8]) is possible.
In general, the resumption of the growth of quotations in the near future seems to be a more likely scenario, since the upward trend in the pair persists, which is confirmed by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands. At the same time, the development of a downward correction to the area of 0.2929 is also not excluded, but the price is unlikely to go lower, since the Stochastic is close to the oversold zone, which indicates a possible upward reversal.
Resistance levels: 0.3418, 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.415 | Support levels: 0.3173, 0.2929, 0.2685
USDCAD - macroeconomic statistics did not support the position of the Canadian currency
The industrial goods price index lost 1.1% in December, exceeding the previous month’s –0.5% decline, with annual growth slowing to 7.6% from 9.4% earlier. The value for commodities declined 3.1% after the –0.8% correction in November and from 7.9% to 7.5% YoY. The main reason for the negative dynamics is the fall in oil prices on world exchanges, where quotes of the benchmark Brent Crude Oil fell to 86.00.
The US dollar fell below the key support level of 102.000 in the USD Index against the negative statistics from the housing market: the volume of construction of new houses in December amounted to 1.382M, which was lower than 1.401M earlier, and the number of building permits issued amounted to 1.330M compared to 1.351M in November. Investors ignored data on initial jobless claims, which fell to 190.0K from 205.0K in a week.
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is growing within the global Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries 1.3620–1.3300 towards the resistance line, and the technical indicators maintain a sell signal and hint at a correction.
Resistance levels: 1.3523, 1.3697 | Support levels: 1.3409, 1.3224
EURGBP Takes Advantage of the Additional Support Line Stability
The EURGBP pair faced additional negative pressures to form strong negative waves and suffer some losses by crawling towards 0.8722, to face additional support and settle above it, noting that the main stability within the bullish channel that appears on the chart allows us to wait to gather the additional positive momentum to manage to form bullish waves and target 0.8820 followed by pressing on 0.8880 barrier in order to find a way to resume the bullish rally in the upcoming period.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8740 and 0.8820.
BTCUSD - The pair’s upside potential remains
Positive sentiment associated with monetary factors still prevails. Investors are confident that against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures, the US regulator will start raising interest rates less rapidly, reducing the increment to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. These actions should lead to a decrease in support for the US currency and at the same time reduce the likelihood of the US economy going into recession, which increases the risk appetite of investors.
The price corrected to the level of 22500 (Murrey level [6/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of developing a decline to the levels of 21250 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 20000 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the “bulls” remains the level of 23400, consolidation above which will ensure growth to the levels of 25000 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 26250 (Murrey level [+1/8]).
Resistance levels: 23400, 25000, 26250 | Support levels: 22500, 21250, 20000
Crude Oil - Saudi authorities have announced their readiness to trade not only in US dollars
Quotes are gradually recovering against the backdrop of fundamental news: investors are reacting to the recent statement by the Minister of Finance of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, made by him during his speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. The official said that for the first time in 48 years, his country is ready to consider proposals for international trade in currencies other than the US dollar. This statement supported the recent global de-dollarization trend, a support factor for the black gold market, creating an opportunity for more independent pricing to emerge.
Another factor of local support for oil prices was the statement by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who noted that the introduction of a price limit for petroleum products from the Russian Federation is a much more complicated process than the previously introduced limit on the cost of raw materials since there are a lot of their types, and each has a dynamic price, which makes it difficult to establish specific values, and it will take considerable time to develop the final rules. The new restrictions could be formalized as early as February.
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within a downward corridor, approaching its resistance line at 87.30, and the technical indicators reinforce the buy signal.
Resistance levels: 89.3, 97.7 | Support levels: 84.8, 76.7
GBPUSD - Growth is possible.
On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, a correction has formed as the wave iv of 3, and the wave v of 3 is developing.
If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2900–1.3500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1835.
EURJPY Keeps the Bearish Bias
EURJPY pair provided negative close below the additional barrier 142 yesterday, to increase the chances of activating the negative attack again, while the current weak trades are caused by stochastic contradiction against the moving average 55 that provides negative signals by settling below the mentioned barrier.
These factors allow us to expect forming temporary sideways fluctuation until gathering the additional negative momentum to ease the mission of starting the negative attack and press on 140.25 level soon, while breaking it will confirm the continuation of the negativity by targeting 139.4 and 138.2 levels.
Silver - The price is in a correction and may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) forms, within which the entry first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave iv of 1, within which the wave (c) of iv is developing.
If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.80.
USDJPY - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave of the lower level a of 4 formed. Now, the wave b of 4 has ended, and the wave c of 4 is forming, within which the wave (iv) of c is developing.
If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 121.67 – 118. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.54.
EUR Drops After French and German PMIs
Flash PMI indices for January from France and Germany were released today at 8:15 am GMT and 8:30 am GMT, respectively. French release turned out to be mixed - the manufacturing index showed a big beat and returned above the 50 threshold while the services index missed expectations and moved deeper into contraction territory. Similarly mixed results were shown by German reading. However, in this case manufacturing data missed expectations while services gauge beat and moved back above 50 point threshold.
France
Manufacturing: 50.8 vs 49.7 expected (49.2 previously)
Services: 49.2 vs 49.9 expected (49.5 previously)
Germany
Manufacturing: 47.0 vs 47.8 expected: (47.1 previously)
Services: 50.4 vs 49.6 expected (49.2 previously)
EURUSD moved lower in a knee-jerk move following the French release but this drop was quickly erased while European indices moved higher. However, upward move on EURUSD was entirely erased following release of German data. DE30 erased big part of the gain but continues to trade slightly above pre-announcement levels.
EURUSD took a hit following release of German PMI data and is looking back towards the 1.0860 support zone.
USDCHF Negotiates the Resistance
USDCHF pair provided new positive trades to test the bearish channel’s resistance, noticing that stochastic shows new negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to resume the main bearish trend, which its targets begin at 0.9100 and extend to 0.9100.
We remind you that breaching 0.9230 will push the price to start bullish correction that its targets begin by testing 0.9335 areas. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9140 support and 0.9275 resistance.
ETHUSD - Murray analysis
Since the beginning of this year, the ETHUSD pair has been growing within the framework of a general market uptrend: last week, for the first time since September, the quotes rose to the area of 1678.7, but now they have lost some of the positions they won, dropping to the level of 1625 (Murray level [5/8]).
The key for the “bulls” is currently the level of 1650 (Fibo retracement 23.6%), consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1750 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1875 (Murray level [7/8]). In general, the upward trend in the market remains, as evidenced by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone. The Stochastic’s exit from the overbought zone does not exclude a corrective decline, but its potential is seen as limited by the 1500 mark (Murray level [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). If the price consolidates below this level, the decline will be able to continue to the area of 1375 (Murray level [3/8]) and 1250 (Murray level [2/8]), but so far this scenario seems less likely.
Resistance levels: 1650, 1750, 1875 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250
Soy Technical Analysis
Bearish Scenario:
Soyabeans is trading in the upward channel, noting the AO indicator shows negative signals waiting to motivate the bears to confrim the break of the main bullish trend 1477.45 support (Fibo retracement 38.2) which extends to 1465.42 - 1456.05 (Fibo retracement 50).
Bullish Scenario:
We see a hammer candle in 12 hours chart which can indicate trend reversal. Breaching MA 50 would push the price to continue the bullish trend that its targets begin by testing 1511.8 - 1520.16.
XRPUSD - Current trend
The XRPUSD pair has been growing within the general market trend since the beginning of this month, and this week has reached 0.4290 for the first time since November.
Currently, the quotes have corrected to the 0.4000 area, but the current short-term uptrend will be reversed only after the breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands in the 0.3780 area, and then the asset will be able to return to 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]) and 0.3174 (Murrey level [5/8]). The key “bullish” level is the resistance zone 0.4330–0.4395 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murrey level [+2/8]), the breakout of which allows growth to 0.4750 and 0.5219 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%).
Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4750, 0.5219 | Support levels: 0.3780, 0.3418, 0.3174
USDCHF Exits the Bearish Channel
The USDCHF pair traded with strong positivity yesterday to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and settles above it, to head towards building expected correctional bullish wave in the upcoming sessions, targeting 0.9335 areas initially.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, taking into consideration that breaking 0.9195 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the main bearish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9160 support and 0.9300 resistance.
GBPCAD forms new bullish channel
The GBPCAD pair formed minor bullish wave recently as appears on the chart, to support the chances of resuming the bullish attack, as the continuous stability of 1.6420 support line and stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allow us to expect targeting 1.6745 level soon, while surpassing it will increase the chances of providing strong pressures on 1.6930 barrier, to form the next main target for the bullish trades.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.6550 and 1.6745.
USDCAD - Growth is possible.
On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the wave 5 of (3) is forming, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 5 has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 5, and the wave iii of 5 is developing.
If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.4500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3315.
USDCHF - Growth is possible.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the wave C of (2) has ended, and the development of the upward wave (3) of 3 has started, within which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) is forming.
If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9600–0.9900. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9081.
Dow Jones - The US stock market is preparing to continue its growth
Tesla Inc., an electric car maker, released financial results yesterday, with fourth-quarter revenue of 24.32 billion dollars, lower than forecast of 24.68 billion dollars, and with earnings per share of 1.19 dollars, higher than the previous quarter’s figure of 1.05 dollars. In turn, technology giant IBM Corp. posted revenue of 16.70 billion dollars against a forecast of 16.13 billion dollars and earnings per share of 3.60 dollars, well above 1.81 dollars a quarter earlier.
Among the negative publications, one can single out yesterday’s report of the manufacturer of aviation, space and military equipment, Boeing Co., whose quarterly revenue amounted to 19.98 billion dollars, an increase of 35.0% compared to the previous quarter. The company’s recovery still failed to turn it into profit, with a loss per share of 1.75 dollars after -6.18 dollars per share in the previous quarter.
On the daily chart, the index quotes continue corrective dynamics, again trying to overcome the channel’s resistance line at 34160, and the technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty.
Support levels: 33300, 32500 | Resistance levels: 34160, 35300
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