XAUUSD - Growth is possible.
If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1990 – 2050. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1782.23.
EURUSD gathers the positive momentum
The EURUSD pair provided slight negative trades yesterday to test the EMA50, noticing that stochastic gathers the positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the main bullish trend, which targets 1.1030 as a next station.
Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 1.0845 might press on the price to test 1.0745 areas before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0800 support and 1.0970 resistance.
USDCAD breaks the support
The USDCAD pair succeeded to break 1.3350 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently for the upcoming sessions, opening the way to head towards our next target that reaches 1.3205.
The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, which will remain valid unless breaching 1.3350 and holding above it again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3260 support and 1.3400 resistance.
USDJPY attempts to recover
The USDJPY pair returned to rise yesterday to attack 129.80 level, noticing that stochastic provides clear negative signals on the four hours’ time frame, which encourages us to suggest the bearish bias for today, and the targets start by breaking 128.90 to confirm extending the bearish wave towards 127.20.
On the other hand, we should note that breaching 130.50 will stop the suggested negative scenario and lead the price to achieve new gains on the intraday basis. The expected trading range for today is between 128.90 support and 130.70 resistance.
Silver - Growth is possible.
If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.64.
Crude Oil - Growth is possible.
If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 93.25 – 100.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 76.50.
EURUSD Tests the Moving Average
The EURUSD pair continues to provide weak trades around the EMA50, noticing that stochastic attempts to provide positive signals, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that targets 1.1030 as a next station.
Therefore, the positive scenario will remain active as long as 1.0845 level remains intact, reminding you that breaking this level will put the price under intraday pressure to test 1.0745 areas before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0800 support and 1.0960 resistance.
GBPUSD Needs Strong Positive Motive
The GBPUSD pair fluctuates within tight track since last Friday, settling above the EMA50 that forms good intraday support against the price, to keep our bullish overview that its targets start by breaching 1.2440 to open the way to head towards 1.2595.
On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1.2320 will push the price to achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to resume the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2320 support and 1.2485 resistance.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold price didn’t show any strong move since morning, and as long as the price is below 1936, our bearish overview will remain valid for today, supported by stochastic loss to the positive momentum, reminding you that our waited target is located at 1908.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 1908 support and 1940 resistance.
GBPCAD holds above the support
The GBPCAD pair confirmed keeping the bullish attempts by providing new positive close above the minor bullish channel’s support line at 1.6470, to manage to renew the bullish rally and settle near 1.6555.
Now, stochastic attempt to provide the positive momentum allows us to suggest more positive attempts, to target 1.6680 level soon, while surpassing it will push the price to reach the additional stations at 1.6800 and 1.6930 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1.6490 and 1.6680.
NZDUSD Breaks the Support
The NZDUSD pair broke the bullish channel’s support line clearly and turns to decline on the intraday basis, targeting visiting 0.6365 followed by 0.6275 levels as main negative targets.
Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today, and breaking 0.6430 will ease the mission of achieving the suggested targets, noting that breaching 0.6510 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6370 support and 0.6500 resistance.
Euro Area Q4 GDP Beats Estimates
Q4 GDP report from euro area just came out and turned out to be a positive surprise. Growth reached 0.1% QoQ while market expected a 0.1% QoQ drop. On annual basis, GDP growth reached 1.9% YoY (exp. 1.8% YoY), slightly slower than 2.1% YoY reported in Q3 2022. Simultaneously, Q4 GDP report from Italy was released and it also turned out to be better-than-expected. Italian GDP declined 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2022, but the market expected a 0.2% QoQ drop. On an annual basis growth reached 1.7% YoY (exp. 1.6% YoY).
However, in spite of being a positive surprise, reports did not have much of an impact. EURUSD barely moved while DE30 ticked lower.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair trades negatively to break 1.2320 and attempts to hold below it, which urges caution from the upcoming trading and makes us prefer to stay aside until the price confirms its situation according to this level, as confirming the break will push the price to achieve bearish correction that its targets begin by testing 1.2155 and extend to 1.1940, while consolidating above it will reactivate the positive scenario that its targets begin by testing 1.2440.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.2250 support and 1.2400 resistance.
GBPCHF Begins to Decline
The GBPCHF pair surrendered to the domination of the bearish bias by providing new negative close below 1.1480 resistance and start forming new negative waves by reaching 1.1280.
The negative stability below the moving average 55 and stochastic additional negative momentum signals confirm the continuation of the negativity, to expect suffering additional losses soon by targeting 1.1210 followed by repeating the pressure on the additional support 1.1105. The expected trading range for today is between 1.1340 and 1.1210.
USDCHF Declines Again
The USDCHF pair couldn’t hold for long time above 0.9240 level, to trade with strong negativity and reach 0.9160 level now, which puts the price under expected additional negative pressure in the upcoming period, targeting visiting the recently recorded low at 0.9085 as a next negative station.
Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today unless breaching 0.9240 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9085 support and 0.9210 resistance.
NZDUSD Still Negative
The NZDUSD pair settles below the EMA50 that forms negative pressure against the price, to keep the bearish trend active, waiting to head towards 0.6365 as a first target. Stochastic provides negative signals that support the expected decline, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 0.6510.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6370 support and 0.6480 resistance.
EURGBP Continues to Rise
The EURGBP pair succeeded to resume the bullish attack to surpass 0.8870 level and provide positive close above it as appears on the chart, to record some additional gains by touching 0.8900 level.
Note that the main stability within the bullish channel and the major indicators attempt to provide the additional positive momentum support the positive attempts for the near term and medium term period, to keep waiting to achieve new gains that might start at 0.8925 and 0.8970. The expected trading range for today is between 0.8870 and 0.8970.
EURGBP - Fundamental Analysis
EURGBP is one of major currency pairs that may see some more volatile moves today. This is because the Bank of England and European Central Bank are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions at 12:00 pm GMT and 1:15 pm GMT, respectively. Both are expected to deliver 50 basis point rate hikes.
While ECB members have been quite vocal about the fact that a 50 basis point rate hike is appropriate for today’s meeting, recent cycle pause from BoC and slowdown from Fed raises questions whether ECB will alter its approach. A 50 bp rate move looks like a done deal and should the ECB commit to another 50 bp rate hike in March, EUR may benefit. A 50 bp rate hike and a hint that pace of rate increases will slow going forward would be EUR-negative and may support European stock market indices.
On the other hand, things look less rosy when it comes to the Bank of England. The UK economy is facing a recession and BoE knows it very well. Higher interest rates are magnifying the so-called “cost of living crisis” in the United Kingdom and while another rate hike could help combat inflation, Bank of England is facing an increasing public backlash over its tightening. Having said that, there is a scope for a dovish surprise with BoE going in with a 25 basis point rate hike.
Taking a look at EURGBP chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to climb above the 0.8880 resistance zone today and has even briefly traded at the highest level since late-September 2022. If ECB provides more fuel for the upward move by hinting at another 50 bp rate hike in March, the pair may look towards the 0.8990 swing area that was tested a few times in the 2019-2020 period and marks a local high from late-September 2022. A dovish Bank of England would also support a bullish scenario on the pair.
EURUSD Hits the Target
The EURUSD pair rallied upwards strongly to succeed achieving our waited target at 1.1030, moving within major bullish channel that supports the chances of achieving more rise in the upcoming period, noting that breaching the mentioned level will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.1185 areas.
Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain suggested on the intraday and short term basis, noting that failing to breach 1.1030 might force the price to rebound bearishly and achieve some intraday bearish correction before turning back to rise again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1110 resistance.
Bitcoin is Fighting for 24,000 USD Level
Cryptocurrencies gained on the wave of Jerome Powell’s comments and the double-dip of the previous 25bp US rate hike. Although the Fed is far from declaring victory over inflation, and Powell hinted at a possible return of inflation if the central bank does ‘too little,’ markets particularly liked the comments regarding the ‘global disinflation’ process that has begun. As a result, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to rise near its summer 2022 highs.
- Bitcoin soared above $24,000 but was quickly knocked off these levels by supply and is now struggling to return to levels near the summer 2022 peaks. The strongest gainers are again altcoins including Binancecoin, Algorand, Sushi and Avalanche;
- The volume of the cryptocurrency market rose by nearly 30% yesterday on a daily basis, to about $61 billion. The capitalization of the entire market is now around $1.1 trillion;
- Meta Platforms’ successful report supported sentiment on U.S. index contracts primarily the NASDAQ, with which Bitcoin correlates;
- Wall Street is approaching a key day of earnings season, with today’s post-session shows from Apple, Alphabet and Amazon likely to affect volatility and investor activity in the evening hours in the cryptocurrency market as well;
- If positive sentiment continues traders may increase speculative exposure around Elon Musk’s ‘favorite cryptocurrency,’ Dogecoin in view of recent comments by Tesla’s CEO, who suggested integrating Twitter with both traditional finance and cryptocurrencies.
The sudden surge of interest in Bitcoin in 2023 caused a massive increase in the average daily number of transactions on the network. Their number has grown exponentially from less than 200,000 to nearly 350,000 in a month, the largest increase in the history of a major cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin chart, H4 interval. The largest cryptocurrency remains above the SMA200 (red band) and SMA100 (black band), which is also the lower limit of the upward formation. Bitcoin has also reached the vicinity of the summer 2022 maxima, although this is the second time it has been pushed back by supply from levels above $24,000. The 50 SMA average (blue band) is approaching the cross with the SMA200, which in the past has most often heralded a prolonged price rebound, and has also crossed the SMA100 for the first time in nearly 10 months, which was a resistance even during summer of 2022.