[B]Economic News
USD[/B]
As the month of November comes to end, talks of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates have done nothing but gain steam. The rumors have has so much weight that the Dow Jones and most other Wall Street outlets saw gains yesterday just from the notion that such cuts might eventually come. Yesterday the Fed’s second in command, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn noted that ‘‘flexible and pragmatic policy making’’ was key in turning around the US economy and that the Fed would “act as needed” in cutting interest rates, if such measures were needed.
The release of the Beige Book yesterday further solidified the expectations of Government intervention in the economic “crisis” taking place now. The Beige Book identified that there was in fact growth in US districts, however tedious it might have been. The report touched on how US consumers have reacted to economic uncertainty with “relatively soft retail spending” in the beginning of holiday shopping. The Beige Book goes on to note how the ongoing credit crisis has created “barriers for some buyers” in the real estate market as available homes are on the rise. Manufacturing and products and services from food and energy inputs rose significantly according to the Fed report.
The events from yesterday have continued to contribute to the glairing uncertainty in the US, even so much as to produce completely different opinions from members of the same governing body. Kohn’s remarks yesterday contradicted those of member from his own board. Such indecisiveness within the Fed could be disastrous as most of the positive movement that the greenback is seeing, is coming from expectations of Federal intervention. As we look ahead to today, the US news schedule is once again full of significant information. Annual GDP and GDP deflators, along with unemployment claims will precede the 15:00 GMT release of the New Home Sales report. Rounding out the day we will here words from Fed Governor Mishkin, who many hope will reiterate Donald Kohn’s call for swift and necessary intervention.
With a full calendar aside from US events, it will be intriguing to see what trends the greenback develops over the course of the day.
[B]EUR
[/B]
The EUR continues to impress, even on days where it sees sharp drops against its major counterparts. Yesterday, while falling to 1.4712 against the greenback, the 13 nation currency bounced back to once again flirt with 1.50 levels.
The Euro zone economy has encountered a bit more stress in these times, as prices for goods and services have skyrocketed compared to the dollar and now European businesses are beginning to feel the effects. With immensely clean track records and better value due to the currency crisis, US companies are simply becoming more affordable. Today should prove to be a significant one, as amidst the very tight economic calendar, EU news will have a very large role in that it will be missing from the equation. Outside of the release of German unemployment rate and several related topics concerning the UK, the news will be dominated by US, UK and Japanese news.
It is safe to assume that even amongst losses in the EUR against it counterparts, the EUR will continue to make gains as was proven yesterday.
[B]
JPY[/B]
The JPY traded yesterday, at its lowest rates in a week, mostly due to the rise in the US stock market. Investors, brimming with positivity from early Dow Jones gains, began borrowing the Japanese currency to secure high-yielding assets. Carry Trades were the name of the game, as the Aussie dollar and other “carry trade friendly” currencies flourished. In what has been described by some as “turbulent” markets, the JPY has been the focal point of much investor speculation. With its dependence toward foreign news being the main accelerator of movement within the currency, the JPY has found itself in the midst of major currency action.
Today’s calendar began last night for Japan, as the release of Industrial production numbers came back higher than initially expected. With Manufacturing PMI, Core CPI numbers and Core Tokyo CPI numbers today could prove to be an important one for the land of the rising sun. It will be interesting to observe the status of the JPY before it gets to the 23:30 release of most of our news. It seems that the negative greenback sentiment may be on the brink of reversing, so this may finally halt the bullish JPY momentum.
[B]Technical News
EUR/USD[/B]
The pair is still floating in the range of 1.4800.4900 while the current move is up. On the 4 hour chart, the Slow stochastic and RSI have a positive slope suggesting that the uptrend has much room left to go. The upcoming bullish trend is expected to test the 1.4900 level, and in case of a breach we expect this pair to test the 1.4950 resistance level. It appears that going long might be preferable today.
[B]GBP/USD[/B]
The pair is floating in a relatively wide range for several days with a slight bullish tendency, as can be seen on the 4 Hour chart. No significant break through the 2.0400/2.0900 range has occurred, and the hourlies continue to deliver mixed signals. The daily chart is giving a moderately bullish sentiment with a bit more room to run. The 2.0800 is a key level, that if breach will validate the next bullish move.
[B]USD/JPY[/B]
The downtrend the pair is going through seems to be very strong and the daily chart validates that there is still room to run. The daily chart is confirming that the momentum down is still quite strong and that 109.00 is a valid next target. On the hourlies studies we see that there is a local correction that might end at the 110.70 peak. Selling on highs might be preferable today.
[B]USD/CHF[/B]
The volatility has decreased and the USD\CHF is in a bearish configuration on the daily studies. After a touch at the 1.0900 zone, the pair corrected to the 1.1135 level. The bullish momentum is fading away, and looks like a matter of short time before the bearish trend will resume.
[B]The Wild Card
Crude Oil[/B]
The strong bullish channel has been breached through the bottom barrier which started a strong bearish correction into the 92.00 zone. Oscillators show that the bearish momentum created by that breach is diminishing. This creates a great long entry point for Forex traders, as the journey to the $100 will probably be back on track soon.