I think I’m going to implement a buffer…maybe 5 pips from the 34 SMA, to try and avoid this happening again. I could use a winner sometime soon. I know this system will have quite a few losers that are compensated for with big wins that last for days though, so I’m not too concerned. Just want to see a winner. Still in profit on my open trade, but not enough to make up for the losses yet.
I made 34 trades and as I expected I had more losers than winners (20 losers and 14 winners), The average winning trade was 1.53% and the average losing trade was -0.96% giving me a total return of +2.28% for the month based on 1% risk per trade. Happy with that to be honest on the basis if I was risking 2% per trade I would have made almost 5% and if I could do that every month I would be very happy!
Thanks a lot for the explanation but I really still don’t understand this method! Sorry for being dumb but I am not getting this that how you lock some of the profit successfully on a 100+ pips trade. Whenever I try to move my SL even halfway through it is taken out because like I said that price retrace back to 30 or 40 pips easily.
Suppose I am positive in a trade by say 70 pips. Now I have two options that either I can lock my whole 70 pips or either I can lock the half profit. Now If I lock my 35 pips and let the trade run it always retrace back and hit my SL and instead of 70 pips now I get only 35 pips. I need to coup this problem. Please help.
Sorry guys. Was busy in preparing for Eid festival so didn’t update my yesterday’s performance. Here it goes:
[U]Closed Trades:[/U]
USDCHF Short from 0.9280 (TP is 0.9234 and SL is 0.9314) Hit the TP for +46 Pips.
EURUSD Long from 1.3262 (TP is 1.3340 and SL is 1.3227) Hit the TP for +76 Pips.
I also opened AUDNZD from 1.1317 and it was positive for about 25 pips at one time but unfortunately hit SL for -37 Pips.
With the trailing SL, you will never take profit (Unless you choose to modify the system). Here is a chart example that will hopefully explain it better. There are 2 separate entries shown and a rough estimation of how the SL should move. It would actually move a fixed number of pips below the MA and be moved at the close/open of each candle.
Note: This is just an example. There was another entry between the 2 that are marked that I did not mark that would most likely have hit the SL 6 candles later depending on how far below the MA you had it set. You will notice, the MA was turned down slightly for that entry, so you may have chosen to skip it anyway. I have not done an analysis on this to see what the results would be skipping entries that the MA is not flat or sloping in your favor.
It’s been a quiet couple of days.
Currently we have two open trades:
EURUSD long from 13260 (5 Aug 16:00) currently 13296, running 18 behind MA of 13314
USDCHF short from 9284 (5 Aug 16:00) currently 9259, running 11 above MA of 9248
EURUSD long from 13260 (5 Aug 16:00) stopped at 13301, 18 behind MA of 13319 for +41 (although was 120 up for five bars)
USDCHF short from 9284 (5 Aug 16:00) stopped at 9257, 15 above MA of 9242 for +27 (although was 130 up for five or six bars)
Thanks a lot for the explanation and for posting the link. I am going to check it now and will post again if I have any question. Thanks.
Ouch. Sorry then. Like you said ‘to each his own’ According to me this is just an ordinary question, one I would never mind answering. Anyways, as you said mostly pairs are out of agreement at the moment. I opened a long position today morning of EURUSD from 1.3324 but was stpped out for - 27 Pips
Neither of my brokers indicate that a long setup would have been appropriate. Did you have a bar close above the 34 SMA on the 4 HR timeframe?
Trade Update:
EURUSD Long from 1.32766 (8/6/13 @ 12:00) stopped out at 1.32866 (+10 pips)
Running Total since 8/6/13: -49.2 pips
No open positions right now.
Yes you are right bro. I just checked and looks like I rushed things and made a mistake. There was no candle close found so it was a bad entry. Thanks for pointing that out.
Looks like that USDCAD didn’t work out…Always remember, there is additional risk when the SMA is not sloped in your favor. It seems to be a common trend that I’m noticing. I missed the trade because I was sleeping, but I’m thinking about implementing that as a rule. I still need to do more back testing to confirm it, but recently it sure seems to be a red flag.
Yeah USDCAD is about to hit the SL anytime but I am not closing it manually. I was also thinking the same about the SMA pointing in the same direction but I have noticed that its not the case always but its better to be safe and trade when the slope is in your direction. Lets see how it goes but I am not impressed by this system anymore. Too many losing trades and in the end these losing trades eat most of the profit from the winning ones. I dont think this system is worth for a full time trader who wishes to trade for a living as there is not much profit in it.
I am still testing this system and will test it further for some time more but I dont have good hopes. I hope I ll be proved wrong.