My BP mobile app can’t see the pict either
Im a little confused by the #'s posted by Four Candles. Maybe i am missing something? Please let me know Four Candles You said average gain of 226 pips/month = 22.6% gain/month This makes sense - an account of 1000 - risking 3% per trade with 30 pip stop loss = $1 (or euro) per pip - 226 pips = $226 = 22.6% increase on $1000 But Four Candles, you also post #s of the account increasing from 1000 to 10000+ over a perkod of 12 months 22.6% x 12 = about 275% increase. That would increase an account of 1000 to about 4000. Where is your 10000+ coming from. It would be 1000% increase to get to 10,000 Thanks for helping me understand
Edit: the post im referring to is the one in which you say “the notional balance goes from 1000 to 16000 over 12 months”
I believe that four_candles applies compounding at the end of each month thus increasing his risk (money wise) but not % wise
It is a zip file of the latest spreadsheet. Try right clicking, save somewhere and extract the spreadsheet
Regards
It is a zip file of the latest spreadsheet. Try right clicking, save somewhere and extract the spreadsheet
Regards
kneesup is correct the results are compounded, I set up a spreadsheet to work it out, its easier than logs.
Regards
So it looks like there have been 3 trades today. All losers. Thats unfortunate
Hi four candles
You made a good job
I plan to apply this strategy on 10 major pairs this year.
Please explain me what means in your excel file the last columns:
- strike = 51.8%
- success = 1.87
Thanks
Hi gynexx
Strike of 51.8% means that out of all the trades 51.8% were winners and therefore 48.2% were losing trades.
the 1.87 refers to the reward to risk ratio. For every one £ or $ at risk there was a return of £1.87 or $1.87
Four Candles sets a 30 pip stop 60 pip target for 5 of the currency pairs with USDJPY its 50 pip stop and 75 pip target.
Overall this works out at a “return” of 1.87 to 1
Thanks Captain Scarlet for your prompt response.
Hi jpw0100
I can see three losing trades, two on the AUDUSD, Jan 2, and one on the USDCAD, Jan 3. These are based on Vantage FX charts. Losing runs are inevitable but so far the system has proved profitable 12 months in a row. Maybe that just increases the probability of a losing month?
Best regards
Hi gynexx and Captain Scarlett.
The Strike is correct, the success is calculated from the strike multiplied by average winnings to date/average losses to data. Its intended to give a ‘snapshot’ of system profitability. If everything is equal; Number Winners=Number Losers and average winnings=average losses then the success=1. If success is less than one the system is not profitable, more than one it is profitable. It maybe that Captain Scarletts “return” also works out but that was not my original intention.
Good luck with your trading
Thanks for clearing that up Four Candles, seems a very logical approach, a bit like a moving average of success.
One of my New Year Resolutions is to try and educate myself better in Excel and spread sheet analysis. I agree the only true measure of success is over a prolonged period of time and like you say it has proved itself over the last 12 months.
[QUOTE=“four candles;584349”] Hi jpw0100 I can see three losing trades, two on the AUDUSD, Jan 2, and one on the USDCAD, Jan 3. These are based on Vantage FX charts. Losing runs are inevitable but so far the system has proved profitable 12 months in a row. Maybe that just increases the probability of a losing month? Best regards[/QUOTE]
Yes, those are the 3. Luckily i was not awake to take one of the positions. I went through the charts of 2013 with your system prior to starting to use it. Having a couple losers in a row in a row was not uncommon so im not worried. Lets hope we have a profitable January
Trend following strategies, 1 winning trade can more than compensate for 10 losing ones, if using a trailing stop, four candles has a higher hit rate due to fixed stop and target, fair play!
Hello all, I joined this forum after reading the 3 little pigs system.
I need some help regarding this system. I’ve spent some time manual back testing on Forex Tester software.
I have my log and stats for 2004 to 2009 on Google Doc. The doc also includes a link to screenshots of some of the trades. Please click on my profile > homepage link to see it as I do not have enough post for URLs.
My personal variance of the original steps posted by the thread starter:
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I check the previous close on D1 and W1 against their SMA. The original method checks for the price at the point of H4 entry. From another set of back testing, this variance did not cause significant difference in overall profitability.
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Entry price is 8 pips above H4 close for long, vice versa for short.
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Take profit is simply 2x stop loss.
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I risk $200 per trade on a $10k capital. I have only 1 trade open at any one time.
Outcome at the end of 5 years
Net profit: $3600 (36%)
Max drawdown: $3000 (30%)
Win probability: 37%. Loss: 63%
Question
Is my profitability, win ratio, max draw-down aligned with your experience? From the posts I see, mine’s a terrible result.
A trailing stop exit strategy mentioned by the thread starter yielded a slightly higher profit. But it is very dependent on the top 3 trades. I’m not comfortable with that.
I only made 36% after 5 years, with some years having the 30% draw down. Am I being unrealistic to expect profit on a year-on-year basis trading on H4 timeframe?
Thank you.
First off all the best wishes for this new year. On this moment two trades still running: GBPJPY 08/01 20:00 hr candle (long) and USDJPY 08/01 also on the 20:00 hr candle (long). When this trade are still running on 10/08 12:00 o clock, i will close them manual before NFP.
The fixed target/stop does seem pretty resilient, News items including NFP have been ignored and it produced some great results. Having said that harmonicphil had some superb results in December and would be interesting to compare the rest of the year.
All the best
Hi
Good to see you are profitable. I make $3600 on a $10K account about 6.5% per year. Is this a demo account or is real money involved?Just being profitable and sticking with it makes you an elite trader. There is nothing terrible about your results I can see. Your risk percentage at 2% seems OK but the win ratio is too low to produce the sort of return which reflects the risk and effort needed.
I simply don’t have the knowledge or experience to give you firm advice. I took the three pigs advanced course and found it very good. It maybe something you want to consider, I should add I’m not associated with the author and cannot promise you will find an answer however other people on here have also found the course helpful, ultimately you have to decide.
You mention back test software, what were you using?
I wish you all the best with your trading.
Thank you for taking time to reply. All the best in your trading too.
For the past 5 years, my stock portfolio pays 6.5% dividends per year with a lot less effort, and no leverage. That’s why I’m looking for something that’s at least 20% per year.
I used Forex Tester. It’s a paid software but the cost is one-time and not exorbitant. 1 month delayed data is free. The interface is similar to MT4. I tried using MT4 to backtest but find it a lot easier to do it on forex tester.