So far my system is profitable. For now… The longer i have done this the more i realize that it is the trader that is profitable though, not the system. You should review the 3 ducks thread, there is years worth of information on it.
It was a “Discovery” tour. We started as the bottom of the country (Ho Chi Minh) and we traveled to the top (Hanoi). It was alot of fun and a very interesting experience but i am happy to be home and resume business as usual.
Results from 2018-11-01. It is a bit hard for me to do this as the review occurred 2.5 weeks after the trades were taken due to travelling. Looks like I was able to capitalize on the strong AUD move that occurred which is where a lot of profit came from. Account is at new highs.
Trade #
59
Session Set
TOYOKO
Date Set
2018-10-31
Time Set
5:09:00 PM
Session Triggered
TOYOKO
Date Taken
2018-10-31
Time Taken
5:25:00 PM
Session End
NEW YORK
End Date
2018-11-01
Time End
6:45:46 AM
Long/Short
Short
Taken At Market
N
Days Active
1.00
Pair
EUR/AUD
Daily Range
97
Pip SL
33.7
PIP TP
57.9
R/R Ratio
1.71810089
SL % DR
34.74%
Entry Price
1.59709
TP Price
1.59130
SL Price
1.60046
H4 duck price
1.61067
H1 duck price
1.60208
M5 duck price
1.59870
H4 Duck
Strong slope lower, entry below the duck
H1 Duck
Strong slope lower, entry below the duck
M5 Duck
Entry is below the duck
Level taken explanation
Pair is set to sell on the break of the TOYOKO Session. The pair is very bearish as seen on the H1 and H4 sloping duck. Thinking the pair will breakout in direction of the overall trend and head lower
Sl Placement
SL is above the US session highs
TP Placement
TP is set at support created August 29th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
445.89
Amount Risked $
4.45
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
14.7394
% Gained/Lost of trade
331.22%
Gained/Lost % of account
3.31%
Happened
Pair broke lower as expected. Price ran sharply downwards, I moved my TP higher twice and locked in gains. Price his the ADJ SL before moving lower over the next two weeks.
Improvements
Strong Trend lower on both H1 and the H4. Entry was at a good level and my analysis was correct. The AUD moved sharply on the AUD trade balance news that occurred during the Asian session. It’s a bit hard to write more since the trade occurred 2 weeks ago. It would have been nice to get more but due to real life i was not in the position to monitor the trade any further.
Strong slope lower, it is a new slope but it is sharp
M5 Duck
Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation
Pair is set to take on a break of some support from the TOYOKO session at 111.885. Pair is overall bearish and looks to want to head lower. Entry is in line with all 3 ducks. Wanted to se
Sl Placement
SL is above the US session resistance at 112.164
TP Placement
TP is set at a bit past the support from Oct 26th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
445.89
Amount Risked $
4.45
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-2.18
% Gained/Lost of trade
-48.99%
Gained/Lost % of account
-0.49%
Happened
This pair was sold and then it basically ran higher into the SL.
Improvements
First issue was I didn’t properly do this trade. See the full SL was hit but the loss was less than 1%. Means I didn’t calculate the position sizing correctly. The trend was strong on the H4 but the H1 was just starting a new trend lower. It was not yet in a full on trend although the duck was beginning to have a nice slope. I think the entry on this was also weak. I guess i did get faked out but i think an entry that is below the no session would have been cleaner. That way it wouldn’t have been traded this time but it would have had to make a new low to get triggered.
Pair is set to sell on the break of the no session support. I was a bit late to the trade and so I set the order to take on the swing break of the 5 minute candle as the breakout was occurring. Slope is strong on H1 and the H4. Thinking the pair will break lower on the TOYOKO breakout in direction of the trend.
Sl Placement
SL is above the double top found in EURO and US October 31st session. Also above the FTL which started October 26th
TP Placement
TP is set at the support level made from the previous days TOYOKO session
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
445.89
Amount Risked $
4.45
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
7.22
% Gained/Lost of trade
162.25%
Gained/Lost % of account
1.62%
Happened
Pair was in a strong downtrend on H1 and the H4. I sold the pair on the break of the no session support. Ran broke lower and then moved sharply on the AUD trade balance. Pair hesitated and then made another move into the TP>
Improvements
The trend was strong which was good. I guess the AUD trade balance news happened to be on my side but it easily could have not been. This is a trade where it would have been better to grab even more pips by moving the TP lower. It would a worked out better had I don’t that while locking in gains. The huge 5 min candle happened pretty fast though. A good trade in direction of the trend though.
Upwards slope but it’s a fresh slope and only just started
M5 Duck
Entry is above duck
Level taken explanation
Bought this pair At market. Pair was bullish and was breaking the highs set from the previous US session. There is an uptrend as seen ion the H4 and the H1 ducks but it just wasn’t fully developed.
Sl Placement
SL is below the lows of the TOYOKO session
TP Placement
TP is set at resistance from Oct 19th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
445.89
Amount Risked $
4.45
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
19.0453
% Gained/Lost of trade
427.98%
Gained/Lost % of account
4.27%
Happened
Price moved higher after I bough at market. The pair moved sharply on the AUD news and I moved my TP and my ADJ SL twice. Price ended u0-p getting stopped at my ADJ SL before moving even further higher
Improvements
This was a good trade. The trade was successful because of the AUD push on the AUD trade balance news Its kind of difficult for me to write about it as it was 2 weeks ago and I was not able to due to life events. Would have been nice to get more of a gain but I was not able to monitor the trade. Overall moving the TP higher though and reducing risk is an indication of good trade management
Entry was taken at market on the break of the resistance from the previous US Session at.71528. Pair is bullish as seen but the H1 and the H4 sloping ducks. Strong move on the AUD trade balance has sent this pair higher
Sl Placement
SL is below the TOYOKO session lows
TP Placement
TP Is set at resistance from August 28th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
451.14
Amount Risked $
4.51
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
10.379
% Gained/Lost of trade
230.13%
Gained/Lost % of account
2.30%
Happened
Pair broke the resistance and it was bought at market. The pair ran higher sharply on the AUD trade balance news. Pair had the TP adjusted as well as the ADJ SL. Looks like price hit the ADJ SL before moving higher
Improvements
This was a good trade, the trend was higher and the pair did move upwards. Its hard to write much about this as it happened two weeks ago and I could not do the review right away due to life events. It would have been nice to get a larger gain but I was unable to not being able to trade for a few weeks.
This is week 3 review. It is tough for me to do this review since it is over 2 and a half weeks since the trading occurred. The review is coming late as I was travelling and was not able to finish the review before departing. Overall the week was very positive. The account equity swung around but i am at new highs. I was able to capitalize off the strong AUD move due to the trade balance news. I left alot of pips behind though as the AUD kept on moving in direction of the trend. Would have been nice to get a larger gain but was not in the position to actively monitor the trades. I think i am noticing that this system will work with smaller SL and larger TP’s. Realistically any trend following system should be aiming for larger TP’s than SL’s anyways. I am collecting some good data though which once i have a bit more of i should be able to analyze. Trading 28 pairs as i am means that there should be opportunity every day for at least 1 trade. This is why i have 20ish trades a week i think.
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
1
449.22
438.84
-$10.38
-2.31%
11
8
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
2
438.84
450.38
$11.54
2.63%
25
22
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
3
$450.38
$500.34
$49.96
11.09%
25
23
This coming trading week is going to be short as I have missed a day due to flying back from Vietnam. I am excited to return to the world of trading though. Just need to hold onto the gains I made and aim for more.
Sure did visit the Cu Chi tunnel! Pretty Cool. I ate lots of Vietnamese food but was tired of it near the end lol. Glad to be home though, 2.5 weeks was enough for me.
Results from 2018-11-20. Found out my broker OANDA moved the legacy information from the trading platform and put it on some server or something. Looks like all my history was deleted in the platform! Not cool, there was trade analytics that i was looking forward to do and now the platform has been reset… Anyways. Took several trades today. Was stopped out on 3. Trade 66 EUR/GBP, Trade 67 NZD/USD, Trade 70 USD/JPY. Have 5 others open and 4/5 are in profit.
Trade #
66
Session Set
TOYOKO
Date Set
2018-11-19
Time Set
6:46:00 PM
Session Triggered
TOYOKO
Date Taken
2018-11-19
Time Taken
6:52:00 PM
Session End
EUROPEAN
End Date
2018-11-20
Time End
2:39:00 AM
Long/Short
Long
Taken At Market
N
Days Active
1.00
Pair
EUR/GBP
Daily Range
79
Pip SL
32.8
PIP TP
78
R/R Ratio
2.37804878
SL % DR
41.52%
Entry Price
0.89143
TP Price
0.89923
SL Price
0.88815
H4 duck price
0.87648
H1 duck price
0.88815
M5 duck price
0.89047
H4 Duck
Strong Slope Higher
H1 Duck
Strong Slope Higher
M5 Duck
Entry is above the duck after a retracement in TOYOKO session
Level taken explanation
Entry is set to buy at the high of the day, a break above Asian session will trigger the entry. Trend is higher as seen by a strong move in the H4. H1 is also trending strongly.
Sl Placement
SL is below the low created by the no session of the day. Also below the RTL that began on Nov 13.
TP Placement
TP is set at the swing high created on Sept 21
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-5.07
% Gained/Lost of trade
-101.40%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.01%
Happened
The pair spiked into the entry level during the Asian session. Price then broke down and fell below the RTL and hit the SL during the EURO session
Improvements
This trade was in line with my system. I thought the pair would head higher and stay above the RTL but I was wrong. Both the H1 and the H4 ducks were strong. Perhaps a wider SL would have worked better on this trade. I still think the EURO is set to appreciate relative to the GBP.
Entry is set to take on the break of the high created during the Asian session. Trend is upwards as seen by H1 and the H4 both sloping. Price is moving upwards and I think a break higher during EUR session will move it higher
Sl Placement
SL is below the low of the previous day’s overlap session.
TP Placement
TP is set at the channel top
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-5.11
% Gained/Lost of trade
-102.20%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.02%
Happened
Price hit the entry during the Asian session and then fell during the EURO session. Got stopped out on heavy USD strength and risk aversion during the US and EUR overlap.
Improvements
There was a string trend and so this trade was in line with my system. What did it in was the heavy risk aversion and USD strength. I was a bit on the fence about this initially and wanted to get it at a lower level but knew it wouldn’t be possible due to the H1 ducks location in the risking channel. Pair looks to have found support at the channel bottom so maybe a wider SL would have worked better. Would have been difficult to maintain at least 1:1 risk to return ratio though.
Entry was taken AM, I saw price break some support after bouncing from the trend line and I sold after a small rally at the support break level. Pair is bearish as seen both H1 and the H4 ducks. Thinking that the risk aversion seen last week will occur.
Sl Placement
SL is above the FTL and the previous days, resistance level
TP Placement
TP is set at the support near 112.029
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-5
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.00%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Sold this pair in the Asian session. Pair did head lower by 40% of the TP or so but then a reversal in the EURO US overlap saw the pair run higher. Pair ended up hitting the SL during the TOYOKO session.
Improvements
There was a good downtrend as seen by H1 and the H4 ducks. The area that the pair was sold was not too bad. The USD was just too strong. There was risk aversion as anticipated but this pair did not move the way I thought it would. Tough to see what I could have done better on this trade. I even sold after a small rally and underneath the FTL.
Results from 2018-11-21. Two trades were ended today. 72 EUR/GBP was cancelled due to NSF, resources were tied up in other trades. Looks like it mighta been a good one also. Trade 74 NZD/CAD was stopped out. It was a good entry and price did move higher but then came crashing back lower. I had quite a large floating profit in the EURO US overlap today. Probably 5% or so. Sadly it evaporated though the US session.
Trade # 72
Session Set TOYOKO
Date Set 2018-11-20
Time Set 6:48:00 PM
Session Triggered
Date Taken
Time Taken
Session End
End Date
Time End
Long/Short Long
Taken At Market N
Days Active 0.00
Pair EUR/GBP
Daily Range 79
Pip SL 32.1
PIP TP 42.6
R/R Ratio 1.327102804
SL % DR 40.63%
Entry Price 0.88973
TP Price 0.89399
SL Price 0.88652
H4 duck price 0.87817
H1 duck price 0.88952
M5 duck price 0.88900
H4 Duck Strong Slope Higher, entry above the duck
H1 Duck Strong Slope Higher, entry above the duck
M5 Duck Entry above the duck
Level taken explanation Entry is above the Asian session highs and the high of the day. Pair is bullish as seen by the H1 and the H4 sloping ducks. I am thinking the pair will break above the Asian session highs and continue in the direction of the overall trend.
Sl Placement SL is below the support level I identified at .88705.
TP Placement TP is set at the resistance from October 30th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance 484.79
Amount Risked $ 4.84
Risked % 1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
% Gained/Lost of trade 0.00%
Gained/Lost % of account 0.00%
Happened Cancelled NSF
Improvements
Entry is set to buy at the break of the high created during the previous US session. Pair is in a strong uptrend as seen by the H4 and the H1 ducks. Thinking this pair is going to head higher on weak OIL and weak CAD
Sl Placement
SL Is below the RTL and also a level of support at .90239
TP Placement
TP is set near the resistance on June 21st 2018
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
484.79
Amount Risked $
4.84
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.86
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.41%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Price initially spiked higher into the entry during the Asian session. Continued the move higher in the EURO session. However the market changed and saw the CAD rally, price then hit the SL during the following days Asian session.
Improvements
Trend was strong on both the H1 and the H4. babypips cites risk taking as the change in the flow of the market but it doesn’t explain the NZD weakness. Oil was not too strong. I though CAD was strangely strong today. Nonetheless the entry was good, the trend was higher on both the H1 and the H4. I think he trade was good. I think the only way to improve this would be to reduced risk to breakeven or lock in gains. Pair was bullish and i was trying to follow a good trend.
Results from 2018-11-22. A tough day today. Got hit on the GBP random leak. Also got caught in the unexpected CAD rally. 5 trades closed today. Trade 65 CAD/CHF is a loss, disappointing as it was at one point a big gain. Trade 68 EUR/CAD is similar to trade 65. Trade 69 GBP/CHF got stopped out on the BREXIT leak, tough one this. Trade 71 GBP/JPY is similar to trade 69. Trade 77 EUR/CHF was cancelled since the H1 slope changed.
Trade #
65
Session Set
TOYOKO
Date Set
2018-11-19
Time Set
6:22:00 PM
Session Triggered
TOYOKO
Date Taken
2018-11-19
Time Taken
6:30:00 PM
Session End
TOYOKO
End Date
2018-11-22
Time End
6:30:00 PM
Long/Short
Short
Taken At Market
N
Days Active
3.00
Pair
CAD/CHF
Daily Range
57
Pip SL
34.3
PIP TP
62.2
R/R Ratio
1.813411079
SL % DR
60.18%
Entry Price
0.75207
TP Price
0.74585
SL Price
0.75550
H4 duck price
0.76194
H1 duck price
0.75986
M5 duck price
0.75402
H4 Duck
Strong slope downwards
H1 Duck
Strong slope downwards
M5 Duck
Entry is set under the duck
Level taken explanation
Entry is set to take on the break of the low created during the previous days low. This is also a support level that was previous created on the chart. Trend is lower on both H4 and the H1. I think risk aversion will continue this week. Thinking the pair will make a move lower during the European session
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance at .75505 and the current days Asian session
TP Placement
TP is set at the support created 27th Sept
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-5.05
% Gained/Lost of trade
-101.00%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.01%
Happened
Sold this pair on the break of the support created from the consolidation Nov 20th 2018. The pair hit the entry during the EURO session as anticipated and ran lower on risk aversion and CAD weakness. Then the pair stopped and began to move higher. Pair hit the SL during the No session spread widen point.
Improvements
I think the entry was great, think the trend was bearish also. It is unfortunate that the pair began to rally on what I think is weak risk taking but mostly CAD strength. The spread widen is an annoyance for sure. Regardless the pair would need the SL moved lower though because the H1 is no longer bearish. Kind of ashamed that a big win turned into a loss, one way to improve might be to derisk after the pair has moved significantly lower. That would have prevented a loss in this instance.
Entry is set to buy at a break of the no session of the day highs. Pair is bullish as seen by the H1 and the H4 duck sloping.
Sl Placement
Sl Is below the support line at 1.50429
TP Placement
TP is set before the high created Sept 29.
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-5.25
% Gained/Lost of trade
-105.00%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.05%
Happened
Pair hit the entry and fell, came close toe the SL but the support at 1.50429 held. Then the pair moved higher and stalled again. Price ran lower on what was said to be risk taking and thus CAD strength. Pair then fell again surprisingly, babypips cites the corporate profits which appears to be a low impact event. Pair hit the SL
Improvements
One thing I can say about this is perhaps the H4 was not as developed as it could be, it was sloping higher but it had just begun. Other than that maybe I should have reduced the risk to BE after seeing the price move to much higher. It would have prevented this form being stopped. I still think the CAD strength was a bit strange since oil and stocks went lower but that’s the way it is.
Entry is set to take on the break of the support at 1.27569 and the low of days Asian session. Pair is in what appears to be a huge descending triangle. Thinking price will break the support and run lower in direction of the overall trend
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance at 1.27769 and also the days TOYOKO session high
TP Placement
TP Is set to trigger before the descending channel bottom.
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-5.06
% Gained/Lost of trade
-101.20%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.01%
Happened
Sold this pair in a strong trend downward as seen by the H4 and H1 ducks. Price broke the support after the descending triangle pattern was detected. Pair was falling good but then a spike occurred during the EURO session on leaked BREXIT deal. Price hit the SL
Improvements
I neglected to screenshot the entry pictures Need to ensure i do the entries. The trend was good and the entry was good. There is no way I could have predicted a leaked brexit deal. It’s a random event. Only way I can see this trade being done better is derisking the position when the price approached the 100% TP level. Moving the TP higher was good but i should have moved the SL to BE when i did that, then this would have been a BE trade rather than a loss.
Entry is set to take on the break of the EURO & US session overlap support. Pair is bearish as seen by H1 and the H4 ducks. JPY is strong on risk aversion which is a theme I think will be continuing over the remainder of the week.
Sl Placement
SL is above the day’s high as well as the FTL that has been in play since Nov 8 2018
TP Placement
TP is set at the support created Oct 28th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
490.13
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.02%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.97
% Gained/Lost of trade
-99.40%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.01%
Happened
Trade was entered during the US session, price ran side ways mostly but then broke above the FTL and the resistance at 144.444. Price then went sideways and then a big spike higher occurred on a leaked BREXIT deal. Hit the SL.
Improvements
Trend was strong as seen by the H4 duck. H1 was beginning a new slope lower and the pair was poised for a move downwards. The sideways action occurred until the spike. There is no way I could have predicted the leaked BREXIT report. It is a random event. Only thing i can see better is to reduce the risk after seeing the H1 duck flatten out.
Trade # 77
Session Set NEW YORK
Date Set 2018-11-22
Time Set 5:33:00 AM
Session Triggered
Date Taken
Time Taken
Session End
End Date
Time End
Long/Short Short
Taken At Market N
Days Active 0.00
Pair EUR/CHF
Daily Range 32
Pip SL 24.2
PIP TP 50.2
R/R Ratio 2.074380165
SL % DR 75.63%
Entry Price 1.13297
TP Price 1.12795
SL Price 1.13539
H4 duck price 1.13744
H1 duck price 1.13312
M5 duck price 1.13423
H4 Duck Strong slope downwards, entry below the duck
H1 Duck Strong slope downwards, entry below the duck
M5 Duck Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation Entry is set to sell at the break of the consolidation that occurred before the strong move higher in the EURO session. Entry is below all 3 ducks in direction of the overall trend. Thinking risk aversion will return and pull this pair lower
Sl Placement SL is above the swing high created during the current EURO US overlap
TP Placement TP is set at support from Sept 28th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance 469.22
Amount Risked $ 4.69
Risked % 1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
% Gained/Lost of trade 0.00%
Gained/Lost % of account 0.00%
Happened Cancelled. H1 duck has changed to bullish.
Improvements
Results from 2018-11-23. A tough day today. Was hit with a variety of losses. Trade 64 CAD/JPY was stopped at BE, shame since at one point it was a big gain. Trade 73, USD/CHF & Trade 75 AUD/NZD were stopped as losses. Trade 77 EUR/CHF was cancelled as the market changed. Trade 78 USD/CAD was stopped as a loss, this was an error as the order was set and not cancelled. Trade 80 GBP/CAD & Trade 81 CAD/JPY both ended as a loss, both were subpar trades though. Must have been shook up form a week of losses.
Trade #
64
Session Set
TOYOKO
Date Set
2018-11-19
Time Set
6:04:00 PM
Session Triggered
TOYOKO
Date Taken
2018-11-19
Time Taken
8:41:00 PM
Session End
NEW YORK
End Date
2018-11-23
Time End
5:29:00 AM
Long/Short
Short
Taken At Market
N
Days Active
4.00
Pair
CAD/JPY
Daily Range
83
Pip SL
43.6
PIP TP
149.8
R/R Ratio
3.435779817
SL % DR
52.53%
Entry Price
85.41800
TP Price
73.92000
SL Price
85.85400
H4 duck price
86.12100
H1 duck price
85.77000
M5 duck price
0.85427
H4 Duck
Strong slope downwards
H1 Duck
Strong slope downwards
M5 Duck
Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation
Entry is set to take below the duck
Sl Placement
SL is above the whole previous day highs, price will need to head higher than it did all of Nov 19th 2018
TP Placement
TP is set to take at the low created Sept 6th 2018 which is also a level of support
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
500.34
Amount Risked $
5.00
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
0.08
% Gained/Lost of trade
1.60%
Gained/Lost % of account
0.02%
Happened
Entry was taken during the ASIAN session. Pair ran lower in director of the trend. Pair then stalled and the CAD rallied. Price approached the SL but fell again. I derisked ahead of the news event. The pair spiked into the ADJ SL during the news event for BE trade.
Improvements
I think the entry was good. Where this fell short was the management. I should have reduced the risk once I saw the H1 trend level off. A BE wasn’t the worst as the CAD news event could have pushed this pair lower without the spike into the BE. It is a shame that such a large gain turned into a BE and almost a loss though. I think if i have >100% gain i need to ensure that i either reduce the risk to BE or i lock in gains. Rather than just holding it open and being greedy.
Entry is set to trigger on the break of the Asian session lows. Pair is overall bearish and there is risk aversion that is present in the market. I think that the pair is going to hit the entry and run lower in direction of the trend.
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance created at .99691 as well as the FTL
TP Placement
TP is set at the support near .98914
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
484.79
Amount Risked $
4.84
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.82
% Gained/Lost of trade
-99.59%
Gained/Lost % of account
-0.99%
Happened
Sold this pair on the break of ASIAN support. Pair did move lower but stalled and started trading sideways. On Friday the pair began to move higher and hit the SL.
Improvements
I don’t see anything wrong with entry, both H4 and H1 duck were sloping lower. H4 had just started but it was a downtrend nonetheless. I think where I went wrong was not adjusted the risk when the H1 flattened out. Had I reduced my risk I would have saved pips.
Entry is set to sell at a break of the Asian session lows. Pair is overall bearish as seen by H1 and the H4 ducks. Thinking that the pair is going to break the lows of the Asian session and run lower in direction of the trend.
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance at 1.06729 and also the FTL
TP Placement
TP is set at the support from April 11th 2018
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
484.79
Amount Risked $
4.84
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.79
% Gained/Lost of trade
-98.97%
Gained/Lost % of account
-0.99%
Happened
Pair broke the Asian session lows. Pair did move lower but then reversed and headed higher. H1 duck turned positive and then price ran into the SL.
Improvements
I think the entry on this trade was good. Where I fell short was not adjusted the risk when the H1 duck turned positive. I could have saved some pips if I had reduced the risk after seeing the change in the H1. I cannot control what the pair does but I can react to it.
Trade # 77
Session Set NEW YORK
Date Set 2018-11-22
Time Set 5:33:00 AM
Session Triggered
Date Taken
Time Taken
Session End
End Date
Time End
Long/Short Short
Taken At Market N
Days Active 0.00
Pair EUR/CHF
Daily Range 32
Pip SL 24.2
PIP TP 50.2
R/R Ratio 2.074380165
SL % DR 75.63%
Entry Price 1.13297
TP Price 1.12795
SL Price 1.13539
H4 duck price 1.13744
H1 duck price 1.13312
M5 duck price 1.13423
H4 Duck Strong slope downwards, entry below the duck
H1 Duck Strong slope downwards, entry below the duck
M5 Duck Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation Entry is set to sell at the break of the consolidation that occurred before the strong move higher in the EURO session. Entry is below all 3 ducks in direction of the overall trend. Thinking risk aversion will return and pull this pair lower
Sl Placement SL is above the swing high created during the current EURO US overlap
TP Placement TP is set at support from Sept 28th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance 469.22
Amount Risked $ 4.69
Risked % 1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
% Gained/Lost of trade 0.00%
Gained/Lost % of account 0.00%
Happened Cancelled. H1 duck has changed to bullish.
Improvements
Entry is set to take on a break of the resistance created during the previous days Asian session. Pair is overall bullish and the trend is higher. Thinking the pair will break the resistance and return to the swing high Nov 21st. Also think risk aversion will continue
Sl Placement
SL is below the consolidation area during Nov 13 & 14. Also the current lows created during todays EURO and US overlap
TP Placement
TP is set at the swing high created on Nov 21
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
2018-11-22 changed the entry and SL after setting trade. Moved the SL to be under the Asian session and a closer entry.
Account Balance
469.22
Amount Risked $
4.69
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.69
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.00%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Trade was set Nov 22nd when the H1 trend was still higher. Price fell and then recovered but the order remained open. CAD news occurred which pushed pair higher into the entry. However it was sold off and price hit the SL.
Improvements
Well I forgot that the trade was open. I should have closed it after seeing the H1 duck begin to change the slope. Had I done that this would not have been a loss. Holding a open order during a news event is definitely risky as price does not always make clean moves in one direction. This is a loss which was outside my systems parameters and could have been avoided.
Duck is kind of weak but is pointing lower and entry is below it
M5 Duck
Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation
Pair is set to take on some consolidation break during the EURO session. Pair is bearish as seen by the H4 duck. Thinking price will spike lower on news and head to the TP level which Is where support is. Will cancel if price moves the other way during news even
Sl Placement
SL is above the level of consolidation before the news
TP Placement
TP is set at the support I identified near 1.68236
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
453.46
Amount Risked $
4.53
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.59
% Gained/Lost of trade
-101.32%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.01%
Happened
This pair was triggered on a move lower just before the CAD news was released. Pair was sold and then ran higher to the SL before returning to entry
Improvements
The trend was lower as seen by H4 That part is good. However the H1 trend could have been more developed. It may have been too risky to set a trade ahead of the CAD news event. It was triggered before I had expected but volatility increased before the actually news was released. Also the trade would have been stronger if the SL was placed above the 1.7 level as there is resistance that i identified there that was no broken by price.
Entry was taken AM. Pair is bearish as seen by the H4 duck. H1 duck turned bullish due to the 2 day rally but has fallen once again under the duck. The price is headed bearish again after the CAD news is out of way and was bad for the CAD.
Sl Placement
SL is placed above the consolidation before the news event
TP Placement
TP is set at support from Sept 9th 2018.
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
448.90
Amount Risked $
4.64
Risked %
1.03%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.49
% Gained/Lost of trade
-96.77%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Sold this at market. Pair had fallen on CAD weakness. The CAD news event had happened and pushed CAD lower in director of overall trend. Pair rallied into the SL.
Improvements
Well the trend was definitely strong on H4. Pair had rallied and was poised to run lower after news event. The H1 duck though was pointing wrong direction although the price was indeed under the price. I feel this trade was not properly analyzed and conducted, likely because i was not thinking properly after a week of nothing but losses. This would be an example of letting past performance impact current decisions despite that trades are mutually exclusive. This trade is no doubt an emotional error.
This is week 4 review. Well this week was awful. I didn’t have 1 winning trade. Looking back, much of the market did revise and move counter trend. Pretty hard to make pips when following the trend if the trend reverses. I suppose some weeks will be more difficult than others though. I definitely made some trading mistakes at the end of the week. I think I was upset of taking losses all week. Certainly need to ensure i remain focused. I am getting lots of good data i can hopefully make some sense out of. I am looking into a new book called “Computer Analysis of the Futures Market, Charles LeBeau and David Lucas” I will begin to see if i can source it this week. It is unfortunate but i am again underwater on this account.
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
1
449.22
438.84
-$10.38
-2.31%
11
8
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
2
438.84
450.38
$11.54
2.63%
25
22
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
3
$450.38
$500.34
$49.96
11.09%
25
23
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
4
$500.34
$500.34
$49.96
11.09%
25
23
Week
Start
End
Change
Change %
Trades set
Trades Taken
4
$500.34
433.64
-66.7
-13.33%
17
15
Starting this new week I am a bit nervous. Of course I’m hoping to get back above the account start level of 450. Wish me luck.
Results from 2018-11-25. More stops. Trade 76 AUD/JPY was leftover from the previous week and got stopped for a small loss. Trade 79 AUD/CHF was stopped out, it was also from the previous week. Trade 82 EUR/JPY was cancelled due to the trend changing. Trade 84 GBP/CAD was stopped overnight. All trades taken from last week are now gone, thank goodness. I was not able to set many trades yesterday and today. The market is just not trending right now and therefore i am not going to be taking trades until it resumes a trend.
Trade #
76
Session Set
NEW YORK
Date Set
2018-11-21
Time Set
6:35:00 AM
Session Triggered
TOYOKO
Date Taken
2018-11-21
Time Taken
7:18:00 PM
Session End
TOYOKO
End Date
2018-11-25
Time End
7:04:00 PM
Long/Short
Short
Taken At Market
N
Days Active
4.00
Pair
AUD/JPY
Daily Range
82
Pip SL
56.1
PIP TP
120.4
R/R Ratio
2.146167558
SL % DR
68.41%
Entry Price
81.88900
TP Price
80.68500
SL Price
82.45000
H4 duck price
0.82233
H1 duck price
0.81892
M5 duck price
0.81891
H4 Duck
Started a new slope lower, entry below the duck
H1 Duck
Strong slope downwards, entry below the duck
M5 Duck
Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation
Entry is set to trigger at the break of the swing support created in the EURO US overlap. Pair is bearish overall as seen by the H4 and H1 ducks. Thinking the pair is going to head lower on risk aversion which is the current dominant theme.
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance I identified around 82.376
TP Placement
TP is set before the support at 80.613
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
2018-11-22 TOYOKO, moved the SL lower to the high of the day because the H1 duck is no longer bearish. 2018-11-22 Moved the SL again to lock reduce risk more.
Account Balance
484.79
Amount Risked $
4.84
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-0.087
% Gained/Lost of trade
-1.80%
Gained/Lost % of account
-0.02%
Happened
Sold pair on a good support break. Pair did move lower but the week ended. The new week saw a reversal of the trend and the pair moved higher and hit the ADJ SL which I placed due to the H1 trend ending.
Improvements
I think this was a good trade. The trend was lower and the entry was good. I think that it was good I was watching the H! and noticed that the trend had changed and it was good I adjusted my position. This shows I am paying attention to what is occurring and not getting locked into a particular mindset. Only way to improve would be to moved the SL lower to the BE level and get a BE trade instead of a small loss.
Entry is set to take on a break of some consolidation during the EURO session. Entry will be below all 3 ducks and in direction of the overall trend which is bearish as seen by the H1 and the H4 ducks. Still think risk aversion will persist
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance at .72390 and the swing high of the EURO US overlap Nov 21
TP Placement
TP is set before the support at .71127
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
469.22
Amount Risked $
4.69
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.68
% Gained/Lost of trade
-99.79%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Sold this in a downtrend. Price hit the entry and then went sideways. The week ended and then the pair rallied to the SL in the new week.
Improvements
The entry was good I think, there was a good downtrend on both H1 and the H4. I think where I went wrong was not adjusted the risk last week. When the H1 duck leveledout I should have lowered the SL. I though about doing It Sunday/Monday this week but the pair had already almost reached the SL so i figured i would just leave it as is.
Trade # 82
Session Set TOYOKO
Date Set 2018-11-25
Time Set 8:45:00 PM
Session Triggered
Date Taken
Time Taken
Session End
End Date
Time End
Long/Short Short
Taken At Market N
Days Active 0.00
Pair EUR/JPY
Daily Range 97
Pip SL 45.6
PIP TP 63.7
R/R Ratio 1.396929825
SL % DR 47.01%
Entry Price 128.22700
TP Price 127.59000
SL Price 128.68300
H4 duck price 128.47900
H1 duck price 128.55000
M5 duck price 128.23000
H4 Duck Sloping lower, entry below the duck
H1 Duck Sloping lower, entry below the duck
M5 Duck Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation
Sl Placement SL is above the identified resistance at 128.619
TP Placement TP is set at the support level at 127.570
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance 433.64
Amount Risked $ 4.33
Risked % 1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
% Gained/Lost of trade 0.00%
Gained/Lost % of account 0.00%
Happened Cancelled, trend changed.
Improvements
Entry is set to trigger on the break of the consolidation created In the middle of the Asian session. Pair is bearish as seen by H1 and the H4 trends and downward sloping duck. I think the price will follow the trend lower
Sl Placement
SL is set above the swing resistance level at Nov 26th
TP Placement
TP is set at the support at 1.68631
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
433.64
Amount Risked $
4.33
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.35
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.46%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Pair hit the entry and made a move lower. It reversed during the EURO session and hit the SL.
Improvements
The H4 was definitely trending lower. The pair was also trending on the H1. Even if I had set my entry below the Asian lows it still would have been a loss because the EURO session saw the GBP rally. Only way to really improve this might have been to put the SL above the 1.7 level. This would have meant i would not have been able to make at least 1:1 RR though and therefore would not have taken the trade. Also forgot to take the entry pics for this trade. Need to ensure i have those.
Yes it is just no one wants to be a breakeven trader lol. I think that strings of consecutive losses are probably the most difficult test of mental will one might encounter in trading. I think having a system that i know works will definitively make such events easier to deal with. Maybe also being aware that the strings of losses can and will occur on a system like this. Then i can ride out the storm without breaking resolve. I think it mostly comes down to trust in the system though. Trust is established through repeated good performance in a variety of different market conditions I think.
This is where grit comes in! Although, for me, another challenge is: when do you know your system is no longer appropriate for the current conditions?
[/quote]
Hmmm well for me and this system, it would be when the duck is not trending. If it is not trending than it is not appropriate for the conditions. Many pairs are currently not trending and therefore cannot be traded right now.
Results from 2018-11-26. Finally a win! Snapped that brutal losing streak. Trade 85 USDCAD was a win. Looks like the market is starting to trend again so the lull in trades has ended. Currently have 6 open.
Trade #
85
Session Set
TOYOKO
Date Set
2018-11-26
Time Set
6:22:00 PM
Session Triggered
TOYOKO
Date Taken
2018-11-26
Time Taken
6:22:00 PM
Session End
NEW YORK
End Date
2018-11-27
Time End
9:03:00 AM
Long/Short
Long
Taken At Market
Y
Days Active
1.00
Pair
USD/CAD
Daily Range
110
Pip SL
35.4
PIP TP
51.2
R/R Ratio
1.446327684
SL % DR
32.18%
Entry Price
1.32628
TP Price
1.33154
SL Price
1.32288
H4 duck price
1.32177
H1 duck price
1.32179
M5 duck price
1.32539
H4 Duck
Sloping upward duck has resumed. Entry above the duck.
H1 Duck
Sloping higher, entry above the duck
M5 Duck
Entry above the duck
Level taken explanation
Took this pair AM. Pair has broken the resistance from Nov 23rd. The pair looks bullish on H4 and recently consolidated for a but is breaking higher. The duck is resuming its slope higher.
Sl Placement
SL is below the support at 1.32435. T_P is set at swing high created Nov 21st 2018.
TP Placement
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
425.58
Amount Risked $
4.25
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
5.93
% Gained/Lost of trade
139.53%
Gained/Lost % of account
1.39%
Happened
Bought the pair on the break of the no session resistance and Nov 23rd resistance. Pair initially fell but then was unable to break the 1.32435 support. Pair ran higher next day and hit the TP.
Improvements
The H4 was good and the H1 had just taken a breather. I think this was a good trade that wasn’t greedy. My SL was enough to handle the spike lower that occurred and was not stopped out. TP was placed good also since the pair bounced off the resistance from Nov 20th
Results from 2018-11-28. Looks like the market went a bit crazy today. GBP and USD news moves. Trade 87 GBP/USD was stopped on a combo of news. Trade 89 GBP/CHF was is similar to 87. Trade 90 NZD/CAD was a gain. Trade 92 GBP/NZD was a loss, due to the GBP spike. Trade 94 USD/CAD was a loss due to the USD INT news.
Trade #
87
Session Set
NEW YORK
Date Set
2018-11-27
Time Set
6:25:00 AM
Session Triggered
NEW YORK
Date Taken
2018-11-27
Time Taken
6:42:00 AM
Session End
NEW YORK
End Date
2018-11-28
Time End
10:07:00 AM
Long/Short
Short
Taken At Market
N
Days Active
1.00
Pair
GBP/USD
Daily Range
139
Pip SL
75.9
PIP TP
79
R/R Ratio
1.040843215
SL % DR
54.60%
Entry Price
1.27513
TP Price
1.26722
SL Price
1.28272
H4 duck price
1.28376
H1 duck price
1.28140
M5 duck price
1.27567
H4 Duck
Sloping downtrend entry below duck
H1 Duck
Sloping downtrend entry below duck
M5 Duck
Entry below the duck
Level taken explanation
Entry is set to take on the break of the swing support created in EURO US overlap. Pair is bearish as seen by H1 and H4 ducks. Thinking the pair will make a move during the US session and head to the TP
Sl Placement
TP Placement
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
425.58
Amount Risked $
4.25
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.27
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.47%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Sold this in a support break during the US and EURO overlap. Pair stalled and then ran higher on good GBP BREXIT talks. Further increase from USD iNT rate expectations being dampened. Pair hit the SL
Improvements
The pair was in a good downtrend when sold so no issue there. The issue really was the two news events that occurred. The GBP one was a random event and was not scheduled. The USD event with the Powell speaking was scheduled but I missed it. I guess I overlooked it. I would need to be more certain i don’t miss the news events
Entry is set to trigger one break of the support from he current EURO session. Pair is resume its downtrend as seen by the H1 and the H4 ducks. Thinking the pair will head lower
Sl Placement
SL is above the resistance at 1.27569
TP Placement
TP is set at the support from Sep 12
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
425.58
Amount Risked $
4.25
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.29
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.94%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.01%
Happened
Sold this in a support break of the EURO lows during the US session. Pair stalled and then ran higher on good GBP BREXIT talks. Further increase from USD iNT rate expectations being dampened sent the market into risk mode. Pair hit the SL
Improvements
The pair was in a good downtrend when sold so no issue there. The issue really was the two news events that occurred. The GBP one was a random event and was not scheduled. The USD event with the Powell speaking was scheduled but I missed it. I guess I overlooked it. I would need to be more certain i don’t miss the news events.
Entry is set to trigger one break of the resistance from he current EURO session. Pair is resuming its uptrend as seen by the H1 and the H4 ducks. Thinking the pair will head higher
Sl Placement
SL is above the support created during the EURO session around .89971
TP Placement
TP is set at swing resistance from Nov 21
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
430.44
Amount Risked $
4.30
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
7.61
% Gained/Lost of trade
176.98%
Gained/Lost % of account
1.77%
Happened
Pair was bought on the US resistance break. Ran higher and then the spike was from the US INT rate talks causing risk taking.
Improvements
Good trend on H4. H1 was bringing to resume the upwards move. The pair was in a bull move which was good. The spike was a bit lucky but my TP was well placed. Not much room to improve.
Entry is set to trigger on the break of the support created over the last day. Pair is bearish as seen by H1 and the H4 trends.
Sl Placement
SL is above the previous day US session
TP Placement
TP Is at the support created Sept 20th.
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
430.44
Amount Risked $
4.30
Risked %
1.00%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.3
% Gained/Lost of trade
-100.00%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.00%
Happened
Sold this in a support break of the TOYOKO lows during the EURO session. Pair ran higher on good GBP BREXIT talks. Hit the SL.
Improvements
Entry was at a good place in line with the system. The pair ran higher due to the BREXIT talks being good. Hard to predict it as it wasn’t a scheduled event. The trend was good though. Also didn’t do the before pictures properly.
Entry is taken AM. Pair has broken the resistance at 1.33184 and the US news is out of the way. Pair is rallying and is moving in direction of the overall trend. Thinking pair is going to keep heading higher.
Sl Placement
SL is below the swing support created during the current EURO session. Also below the 1.33184 level
TP Placement
TP is set at the resistance from June 27th
Fundamental
Risks
Updates
Account Balance
423.88
Amount Risked $
4.20
Risked %
0.99%
$ Gained/Lost
-4.41
% Gained/Lost of trade
-105.00%
Gained/Lost % of account
-1.04%
Happened
Bought this in a valid uptrend. Pair had broken the resistance and was moving higher. The US had Powell speak about INT rates which caused risk to spike in the market and this pair fell to the SL.
Improvements
Valid entry I think. I was unaware of the news event though and so I took the trade. I should have been more aware of the news event that was about to occur on the USD.
