were we trading the same pattern? That would be nice!
You were right. Actually I terminated at 82.137. I thought it might risky to reach 127%CD, so after it reached 100%CD, I monitored the hour-end price movement and stopped at 8:59.
Here is an example of my trade (I was just lucky, no bragging):
The 1D and 4H trend is up (mayjor trend), the 1H trend is down (minor trend). I guessed when I drawn a gartley CD leg, it would go up (oncoming trend, with mayjor trend, so it was an āconfirmationā), so I longed. When it reached 100% CD, I terminated the trade and got a full bar profit. Would it go further to 127.2% or even 161.8%? Maybe, after all it was with the major trend. But unfortunately the next bar was all torwards south, which was with the minor trend but againt the major trend. Hindsight speaking, this would be the oncoming trend during that time, it was against the major trend, but you would get pips if you were with it.
I hope I would not confuse you guys. My point is that trend is important but it changes. Catch the oncoming trend you will success!
Good catch. I would short at 0.8424, whcih is the HH Oct 28, a major resistant point, also 100%CD/100XA. If it reach that point again I would go whort with you.
lol, I dont think I said trend is not important (at least I didnt mean that, :15:), sorry for any confusion guys. I just mean that in my opinion it is important not to trade into it. Just look at some of the examples of late, even yesterdays GBP, running straignt into a number of opposing trends to form D. This is the most important thing to avoid.
You will find that many times, major and minor trends will oppose each other, so you will end up trading against one of them.
Catching the oncoming trend, is not something I would like to personally even try and doā¦ I prefer to let the trend form (three touch points) before I would consider trading a trend - but each person has thier own risk profile, I guess we should all do what works for usā¦
yes, being a coffee fanā¦ we are quite spoilt in Sydneyā¦ I think we have the best coffee much better than my where I come from (London) and I think better than Italy which was quite surprising
Maybe I did confuse you. For catching oncoming trend, what I really meant was anticipation of the next move based on all the information and then move accordingly. If the anticipation went with the oncoming trend (hindsight), it would be a winning.
yes, I think we are on the same page hereā¦ Itās just that I wouldnt call this a new uptrend, to me this is just means the old downtrend is broken. It remains to be seen if the new trend (up) actually establishes itself or if it is just a fake break.
so I personally would not go into a long position here (in your example) until I have three touchpoints on the new upward movement. sometimes this kind of trade works in your favour, sometimes notā¦ to me the risk is too high - like I say, everyone has thier own experience and risk profile.
yes, being born and raised in London, I had no idea how good coffee can get until I got here you must come for a visit and get addicted to Ozzie coffeeā¦ forget Starbucks, Nero and Costa rubbish!
Breakout strategy is a real following trend method. In your opinion, you would trade breakout after it bounces back three times (suppose you do trade breakout).
So I am saying I wouldnt trade breakoutsā¦ I would only trade the trend itself once it is establishedā¦ after it retests the line twice, not three timesā¦ it would have three touchpoints and two retests - not counting the first anchorpoint of the trendline as a bounce. I would trade the second bounce with a tight SL.
to give you an example of what I would call a good tradeable harmonic pattern, look at the EurUsd. The price has moved far from a trend line (ignore for a moment that a new trendline may be formingā¦ lets say just for example the trendline doesnāt establish). Now if a harmonic pattern were to form here, away from trendlines, this for me would be very tradeable.
Other factors would need to line up, I dont care particularly that the major trend is up or down. I dont care that any minor trends are up or down, as long as they dont touch my harmonic pattern from start to completion.
But alas, if the price touches my new trend line one more time, I will go long with a tight sl.
Sanjoz, could you add a chart to illustrate your point? That would make thing much more clear and benefit me as well as other newbies. I did go to the EUR/USD but there are many trend lines in different time frames, I am not sure what you were talking about. :15:
