Two high time frame gartleys: AU and GU
AU 4H: butterfly in gartley, share the same D point 1.05770 entry
GU daily gartley, 1.55809 entry
Iām looking for entry on the AUDUSD at the same level but in a smaller pattern of 15m, same D point, great!
Consider entering at:
- 1.0597.0 (SL=10, TP=19)
- 1.0580.1 (SL=12, TP=24)
- 1.0558.5 (SL=15, TP=30)
Valid up to 6 hours, or breaks 1.0640.
:53:
Iām looking at your ratios, why are you using 38.2XAB for a Gartley? It should be 61.8XAB, and also 78.6XAD and you are placing 38.2XAB and about 50XAD.
Please take a look at this gartley. The B is at 70.7XAB, there are confluences at C point
And this alternate bat with various confluences at 88.6XAD and at 100XAD
It was just happend that this pattern had .386 XA. First, from the definition point, i used TMB rules and the definition of gartley/butterfly is only dependent on the relationship of X and D, with other rules valid. Secondly, I used extreme X point, in which (especially when it is high time frame) fib levels from .236 up would often have power on the price movement (sometimes even more powerful than a .618 level of a lower time frame price movement). The price would not move stright from C to D without ups and downs across .386, .50 before reach .618 et al in high time frames and extreme (enough) X point. Thirdly, for intraday traders, we would prefer not wait for days, weeks or even months for the price move to .618 before we have a trade, even the price would eventually move to that level. So we could use .236, .382, .50 ā¦ of the extreme XA/hight time frame fibs, as well as go to lower time frames as you did to find confirmations.
Cheers,
Hello All,
Have been really lately, but have been studying these patterns. I am amazed at how predictable these patterns can be. I know Ive already posted about the NZDUSD, but you all are really missing if you dont check it out. There has got to be 50 patterns completing on the 1 hr tf over the last week, I had to delete them all because they get incredibly clustered, but at every retractment or reversal, there is a harmonic pattern predicting it. I have only found one that failed with good convergence and if you checked the fakeout times, you would find that it was during a fakeout time.
Start drawing FIBs on this PAIR!!!
fyi, this image does not begin to describe the many completing patterns completing into more patterns.
Bearish gartley 30M in AUDUSD
confluence at 78.6XAD and 161.8BCD. The AB=CD is smaller, so maybe this is not a very good tradeā¦
I found after reading the book that TMB recommended that one way to verify that xAB=CD in time is that they be almost equal, I think a variation of +/- 20% is good enough to consider them almost equal. This was the only validation I was making to determine that a pattern is xAB=CD, but the new think I learned is that if they are not equal, they should be like fibonacci numbers.
For example if AB is 17 bars length and CD=27 bars length, they are not equal by the first rule, but if you divide 17/27 they are 0.629, that is almost the 0.618, so they are xAB=CD in time, and if the size is at least 100AB=CD, the pattern can be considered to fulfill the rule.
I found this pattern:
There you can see that the length in time CD is a lot bigger than AB, so this is not a xAB=CD pattern, but if you change the drawing like this (red trend lines):
then the pattern is still valid, has better symmetry, almost the same slope on AB and CD, and the number of bars of AB=7 and CD=11, 7/11=0.636, pretty near the 0.618. After a little move in bars (only 4 bars) the price reached the 38.2CD, and if you divide your trade in 2 parts, one on 38.2CD and other on 61.8CD, some bars later the price reached the 61.8CD. This risked only about 6 pips to win 23 on the 61.8CD and 17 on 38.2CD, pretty well, isnāt it?
So right now Iām checking this rule before placing a trade, I think this will give better trades
I think I have some problem with harmonic patternsā¦ and I think the problem is that I place counter trend trades when the market is trending. I was analyzing various charts, with the ābeforeā and āafterā, and I see that most of the winners are placed with the trend or when the market is ranging, and the losers are placed when they are counter trend. So I think Iām going to learn a little more on how to ādetectā a trending status without viewing the chart, something like calculations. My first thought is using PSAR or ATR Trailing values to check if market is trending, or maybe checking the fractals, to find higher highs with higher lows.
Also I was observing that for 30M, the time frame I need to check for trending signals is 4H, and for 5M, it is the 30M. With this rule, patterns on 4H need to be checked against the 1D trend.
[B]Do you check the current trend before placing trades?
Thanks![/B]
Hi,
I am glad you noticed the importance of the trend in larger TF. Well, IMHO you can trade all patterns regardless of the trend, but that does not mean you can just ignore what is happening in the larger TF. If the market is trending in one direction, and you are trying to take a counter-trend trade, then there will be a big chance the signal turns out to be a retracement or a fakeout. If you limit your profit target to only 20-30 pips, you can still benefit from those trades. So all in all, you need to be aware of those trends, but do not avoid them blindly.
Good Luck!
Check this pattern. I will not trade this but is for educational purpose.
In the description, you can see that it is 161.8AB=CD, and that in number of bars it is 61.8, that is (bars of AB)/(Bars of CD) is 61.8 or more precise 61.5.
The slope of CD is similar to the slope of AB, and the price retraced exactly at the PRZ.
The calculation of the trend is shown in the custom indicator for every time frame, from 1M to 1week.
[
I](http://www.UploadScreenshot.com/image/777591/8039046)n this other chart of the same pattern you can see that the price was only 0.3 pips from the PRZ and about 0.7 pips of the TP at 38.2CD
Using the recommendations of TMB, the stop would be moved to BE when the price reached 23.6CD, and because this is a small pattern with a profit target of only 8.5 pips, I would be trailing it pretty close to the price. This could be a winner trade with about 5 pip win.
I traded counter-trend EG, GJ and GU today and all lost, even the patterns looked perfect with excellent convergence. Identification of trend is a major issue, as different time frame may give different results and fade trend in price movement. If you can have a program which can identify trend effectively, its self would be success the trade.
Like mediasoft said, always check higher timeframe for bigger picture.
You can make money in counter trend if you limit to 15-30 pips but you have to be very careful.
When you are trading counter trend you are trading the corrective wave which is smaller then the impulsive wave which is with the trend.
I agreeā¦ I just finished this simple custom indicator for MT4. It shows the ācalculatedā trend for every timeframe from 1 minute to 1 week (I wish to place also the monthly trend, but I canāt because a limitation of MT4, only 9 lines per indicator)
It only draw the number of bars you have on your screen, and show three states for each time frame: uptrend, downtrend and sidelines.
If you see the lines, in smaller timeframes like 15m or 30m (like TMB recommends) you can see that the weekly, daily and 4 hour lines must be in the same side, uptrend or downtrend. And you will see that when there is a pullback, some or all the smaller time frames lines reverses to 0 level or to contrary level. After that the 1H, 30M, 15M and 5M aligns all of them with the bigger time frames of 4h, 1d and 1week, and signals that the pair is in an uptrend/downtrend again. This could be a good place to look for harmonic patterns that signals entry with the trend.
Harmonic patterns give a more precise entry, before the lower time frames lines aligns, and also with smaller stop, that means bigger lot size and bigger potential profits. You can see this Crab with 61.8XAB and 161.8XAD converging with non standard 223.6AB=CD in price, 261.8AB=CD in time, and more or less with 423.6BCD and over a trend line traced in 4h. This trade could be the best of the year! hehehe. Well, it was a 110 pip uptrend in one day, using the harmonic pattern entry mixing with my trend custom indicator.
In this other chart you can see in AUDUSD that all is mixed, the lower time frame trens are down while h4 and d1 are sidelines and w1 is uptrend. This is a clear indication that the market could be in sidelines and maybe ready to change direction. This is a good place to look for a weekly or daily counter trend pattern.
MultitimeframeTrend.zip (9.84 KB)
medisoft
Very interesting.
I donāt use MT4 or it would be nice to see u r indicator at work.
Well done Medisoft. What criteria you used for your trendline calculation? It looks very good in your example. I am not use MT4 so cannot try out. May I convert it to a java-coded indicator so i can use it in my platform?
I used two signals, one on ADX and the other with PSAR, when both of them shows the same indication, then I consider the market trending in that time frame.
What do you guys think of this Butterfly on AUD/JPY 1Hr. It formed at the end of the day on friday just after the close of New York. Im not sure whether or not to trade it when the markets open. Any suggestions. It is a great butterfly formation.
