wrtm- the audusd setup looks crooked, can´t find the ab-c fib you have and the C isn´t at least 50 % of AB retracement, which it should be , or am I wrong?
thanks for the clarification
nice bullish butterfly - exactly on the line, 1 point difference between fib levels, is that ok for the 1 min chart?
i get always the commetn invalid file when trying to upload from photobucket?
hi guys,
i’m watching this bullish gartley develop on the aud/jpy 30 min, however i would advise caution buying this pair in current market conditions. as always let me know if you see any problems with the pattern.
By doreilly1 at 2009-11-03
in my opinion these patterns, while excellent, are not stand alone buy/sell indicators, but more of a “watch this area carefully”
ideally we would see a strong thrust falling short of D, at which point one could move down in time frame and look for additional forms of confirmation such as reversal candles, 5th wave elliott wave advances, three drives pattern, a couple of fake outs, or similar indications that momentum has stalled and trend change looks imminent.
although i know this to be true, i still have problems executing, as patterns on the longer time frames are few and, fear of missing out being what it is, there is the tendency to want to take every signal. however, i believe it is here that real discipline must be exercised, and where one’s odds can be significantly improved by letting some trades go. V reversals are rare, so i don’t think there is any need to feel particularly rushed at the D zone. chances are you will get a retest and the chance to enter in a less volatile environment. even if it means taking a slightly worse fill after candle confirmation i think it is worth it. these patterns can put you in front of a freight train sometimes, so wait for the knife to stop wobbling in the ground before you try to pick it up (cliched i know!)
anyway, that’s my rant for the day. you guys probably already know all this, but i thought i would share my observations and shortcomings. just like therapy really…wow i feel so much better now.
happy trading.
modo
hey,
i think my chart may get removed for a link violation. if so, here is a (smaller) update.
so far so good, stop at b/e.
Hey modo! Nice set ups this morning, aud/usd also in a pattern and profit target on gbp/jpy just got filled.
Did you wait for further confirmation before your enter that particular trade?
Thanks wrtm, and well done on your trades!
Booked 39 pips here, in addition to 49 in aud/usd and 7 pts in gold.
I’d love to say I waited for confirmation before entering, but the truth is i didn’t really which is naughty. I scaled in 1 lot at 31 and 1 at 28. Took 6 pts on the first lot to help pay for my stop, then rode the second for 33 pips (my daily target). There were a couple of bullish candles on the 1 min that gave me a measure of confidence soon after entry.
I guess there is an element of experience here (not saying i have a lot). There had been a few failed rallies which i like to see, and the aud, eur, dax, s&p were tanking so hard at the time that i figured it looked like at least a short term exhaustion move.
I guess my point from the previous post is that I don’t like to buy/sell at D if it gets there in a hurry, on the first spike of a move, as the market has a tendency to take out the stops of those blindly fading strength or weakness. If i see stops get tagged once or preferably twice after an impulse move i feel more comfortable getting set.
That said, I was still a little hasty pulling the trigger, always room for improvement.
All the best,
Modo.
Wow nice results! And I asked becasue if you did so that would be interesting to see the results of a variety of this method.
I agree with you in that there’s no rush in entering a trade and I know some book tell you to wait for some extra confirmation, but I’m still entering at D with good results and less stress about managing entries, but that’s just me.
I guess it’s safer and psychologically easier to watch price already reversing before entering, even though you miss a few pips, but with more certainty of a profit.
btw, au pattern complete or forming? where is your X?
Completed and failed :eek: X at .8952 good for 20 something pips before going back to Be.
ok cool, thanks for that. looks pretty ouchy out there. think i might call it a night.
nice setuo froming, i assume it will make a butterfly cause of the large b retracement.
what do you think?
Yeah, I’m going to call it a “day” too! Nice profit already banked :), let’s not be greedy, lol.
Hi Lud, I’m sorry I can’t identify pair and timeframe, could you clarify on that please?
I’ll take a look on that later, I’m going to take some rest guys.
Happy trading. :rolleyes:
lud, this is swissy right?
looks good on my chart, i have a three drives pattern on the 5 min too, and a negative divergence on the 3/10 oscillator.
very tempting, no doubt it will work out, but i just don’t have the stomach to buy swissy against the dollar. by my count it has turned, and what with all the UBS news…
i’ve been looking for a long signal in this pair for days!
sorry, it is the usdchf on 1h. turns out that it took the first fib though. due to the very high B I assumed a higer fib, almost 3 fibs correlating, hard to pick one…
these two surely woked ! i see more pattern from day to day and love this way of trading, something mechanical and without emotions.
use the second one for the estimated D, looks more symmetric, maybe a new d is foming in future and the first X is also useful
Hi Ogna!
I totally agree with what LUD suggests. Both can be good, and in fact there are times where both x’s have convergence at the same D point.
Don’t know if that’s the case.
But also keep in mind that we’re looking for potential reversal zones, so trying with different x points is not guessing, but trying to identify this highly probable zone for a reversal (multiple fibs, support resistance lines, you name it)
hi guys,
for anyone watching tokyo i have a bullish gartley on the usd/cad 2hr.
x 1.06277, d 1.06562
thanks