Good morning all, what an amazing early london session. Aud/usd gave us a great opportunity to go short, not the best day for certainty since today was a day of big news.
Ok here I want to post a possible D in Usd/jpy probably for next week. It’s on the 4 hour chart, and before I post any comments I’d like to hear your opinions on why it is/ it’s not a good pattern to trade.
Please take a look at the whole picture (zoom out your chart), would it be a correction? would it be a continuation?. That’ll be great to hear what you think.
I zoomed out on the daily because I don’t have 4 hr on my online charts here at work. It looks like it might try to re-test a double bottom around 88.00…big support…set back in Jan-Feb, tested and failed again in early Oct.
Still in a down trend as it hasn’t broken the downward structure. Until it does, we can only assume it will continue. We are still getting lower highs & lower lows. I’m thinking it’s resuming down now from it’s corrective wave which made a double top (resistance) around 92.30ish…but it’s kinda right in the middle now at 90ish.
I think I’d rather wait for a bearish pattern which goes with the trend, but as it seems to work out, a 30 pip profit is quite reasonable even for a failed pattern going against the trend…lol…as it zigzags towards it’s destination.
I’d only say that if one was late to the entry on this pattern, then it might not have as much upside potential as one that was late and going with the trend.
i´ve studied this thread and the book, traded two weeks thee patterns and must say, they work, BUT only about 20 % did the reversal take place at the estimated point with fib convergences. often they climbed higher or reversed lower.
what are your experiences or is there soemthing I do wrong?
wow I can`t believe this thread is still alive. Congrats to everyone making money.
I finished reading the book and I must say I am totally disappointed. The book barely touches on how to go about using this method step by step, it just says what it is and gives u a 100 examples on how it works. What a waste of 40 bucks.
Regardless this is an interesting method and I hope to learn more from you guys
I was looking a two different pictures, both presenting interesting info, you know trends withing trends, multitimeframes
On the daily chart, as you mentioned, a downtrend is present, and according to next chart, it looks like the correction (small uptrend) has finished and we are again on the downtrend and the possible formation of a 1-2 leg. Hence or D is totally against the trend. Look also that our D point convergences with our daily 88.6% fib. On daily chart neither signal supports the other.
BUT… here we have our 4hr chart zoomed out.
In here the story is totally different. If I’m right it looks like our X point is the resume of the previous trend and it will be testing support before going up again.
Another point would be that in this chart the upwards trendline has been already broken, also a pennant has be broken downwards, both signals suggesting a short trend.
In this chart I think I’m ignoring the fact that I’m trying to trend with this timeframe trend, and not the main chart.
In conclusion, even though I like the D point, I agree with the fact that we have opposite signals in both timeframes, so that should be a signal of invalidation to me. I know this thread doesn’t talk about it, and in fact in theory there’s no reason to take a look at the trend, but, I’m trying to have higher probabilities in here.
Sweet Pip and everyone. I’d like to hear your opinion regarding this.
the new consept sweetpips are into is little advance for me but have you some of you heard of wolf waves described by linda raske i believe ? anyone have tried trading them are they as good as the grtleys here ?
Wolfe Waves?!!..lol…you think they aren’t as advanced?!
I have tried to trade them, I even have an indicator that tries to count the points and draws the 1 to 4 projection target line that you trade to from 5.
Now using the “new” wave concepts that apparently I’m into…lol…I’m trying to refigure out how they fit it with that.
ok they look little advanced but if one just can find the wolf wave what i can see the target wave 5 is mutch better than the gartley that are more up for guessing when it comes to target that is for everyone except moneybag
Ok, so im new to the whole forex market and such. ive been studying it for about 3 months now. Im learning so much about it daily. Ive been through the whole baby pips school and passed all the test. It wasnt till after draining half my 50k practice account that i realized i needed to learn more. Thats when i stumbled opon this thread. so i started to look into grantly patterns, but i still need to learn alot more.
my question is, are we trying to predict D, or are we using the ABCD to predict where the market will go after D? I will attach my guesst-a-mate of what i think is a pattern.
Well that’s the crux of the matter isn’t it…finding the pattern…lol.
Of course with wolfe waves, you have to pay $3k to the guy (Mr. Wolfe) who shows you the trick(s) to finding them. The indicator I have basically finds every occurrence that kinda matches, but as I found out, no, it does not work so well. Sometime it does, but it get too easy to depend on them and not really look at what’s going on around them in a high probability light. One needs to put in a little more work.
There may be more criteria that TMB uses to select his patterns that he didn’t share, and he also has a mentor and a course that he took. He’s researched what each pairs behaviour is and a what times. He’s put in a lot of manual effort & work, and trained his eyes to trade what he sees, and to have confidence in that.
Ok we skip the wolf waves. About TMB i think he has just look in to the matter of the pattern more worked hard on it i think he tells us everything. We just need to practice more then i also think he have developed an eye for it. I just think the EWT is to hard i hate it if it would work there should be a indicator for it or a program, and there is and it only have right 45% of the time but it have often a good win/ loss ratio. I think the indicator i think you gave me sweetgirl works fine zup_v60
Hi imindtrip,
Welcome to the thread. We are trying to preject where D will possibly end and reverse based on XABC. When the D target is reached, we open a reversal trade at D.
So if price is going down to D, we open a long trade at D, or if price is going up to D, we open a short trade at D.
This is the practise of buying low & selling high.
Learning “Wave Action” is very important. Basically we have trend waves & corrective waves. Waves usually move in proportion to each other from one or more sections of prior waves. The movements are measured & projected with fibonacci ratios. These patterns offer a high probability way to project in advance where price may change direction and traders can take advantage of that.
Thank you for the welcome. I started out trading the “Its so easy its rediculous” trading plan. After draining half my practice account i realized that the plan didnt fit my trading style. Thats when i found this. With me having minimum amount to work with ($500), i needed to find something that fit my style and that was more concrete. So i was trying to work on the patterns for the past two weeks and havent really done so well, luckily it was my practice account lol.
I have been looking through the thead but havent gone to deeply, but i was wondering if that book TMB recommends is worth it, or could i use some other source for learning material. and i have looked at the web pages as well
in hindsight the pattern probably completed days ago when if fell just short of D. at that time usd/jpy hit D on a similar pattern post FOMC. (of course i didn’t take that one but it was profitable hehe.)
having a shocker today, but am trading to the plan so not too upset. some days you just get bad results from good trades (and vice versa).
but i do need to be more mindful of trend days, they can be a killer.
if it would work there should be a indicator for it or a program, and there is and it only have right 45% of the time but it have often a good win/ loss ratio. I think the indicator i think you gave me sweetgirl works fine zup_v60