With all the various trading systems, discussed on this forum & many other forex forums, and plenty professing they are profitable, would it suggest that it is not the system that is making the money, it is something else?
The classic example is the Turtles, they all had the same rules yet the results varied.
So can you trade with a 37.50% win rate and 2:1 RR? If yes you should be able to make money with compounding your profits & losses.
To illustrate my point create a spreadsheet with these columns.
A1 - $1000 - Start balance
B1 - =A1*.0002 - Pip Size per trade calculation
C1 - =rand() - random calculator
D1 - =if(C1>.625,50,-25) - if random number greater than .625 the 50 pip win, else -25 pip loss, you could change to 20, -10, etc
E1 - =B1*D1 - Profit or loss calculation
A2 - =A1+E1 - Start balance + profit or loss
Now copy B1 to E1 to the next row to match up with A2, therefore the whole row 2 has now got calculations.
Then copy A2 to E2 and paste as many rows as you like, eg 1000 rows. What is your balance then?
Now the pip size might become to big but my point is with correct money management, profits can be made with 37.5% win rate with 2:1 RR. You need more than 50 trades in a row to lose your initial capital.
I personally place 4 trades per night, 20 for the week and my goal is to get 7 winning trades out of 20, and if so I make a profit for the week. So I don’t focus on the individual trade but focus on the outcome of the week. For example last week I had completed 7 wins on Wednesday, so knew I had made a profit for the week, and then the next two nights lost all 8 trades. Now many would panic losing 8 in a row but if you understand your goal there is no need to panic.
This may seem simple and I hope it is. Can you achieve 37.5% randomly?