Here’s the Aussie, happening just now. From the AUD Open, price and the Opening Range is setup so that things are messy. An uptrend, but the previous day’s high (sellers) above, following the open there was some good stopping volume (more sellers), so we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place.
By the time price came back to the opening range (and 14ema), high impact AUD news was due, so was more of a wait & see.
After a big announcement (or session open) price normally reveals itself, and after this AUD unemployment announcement, a big push below the OR, a weak retest below S&R, a sign of No Demand Volume, an opportunity short. All that waiting around for 2 hours!
I look to take profit just above/ below the next level of support/ resistance. I mark 1 hour, 4 hour, daily and monthly levels of support and resistance on the chart, together with the previous days high and low and the 5 minute opening range for each session and the opening price and previous sessions high and low as per the market session indicatory Ninja kindly provided. I believe my analysis for entries is pretty similar to Ninjas, except I am trying to do away with the moving averages. Removing them makes you think about the direction of the price for yourself.
I am moving my stop loss early, maybe too early! Maybe, I should be taking profit instead. But this is why we demo trade and I am sure Ninja started this thread so we can all give feed back to optimise the results. Please say if I am talking out of turn Ninja or deviating from the method.
What I like about this method is that it is discretionary and it is excellent for getting to grips with volume analysis.
Just need to check these market session openings, I know my Aussie, Asian and London sessions are correct, as I was up watching the football when the first two opened.
Between my household chores and attending to my son, I managed to collect another 19 pips on what is rapidly becoming my favourite pair - GBPAUD.
Definitely, this is where ideally we should all be headed Using the 14/50 as a trend guide doesn’t help in a rangebound market, but using the highest swing highs & lowest swing lows is objective and bullet-proof.
I usually find a pullback to the 14ema is a previous swing high or swing low (the Aussie just now):
Price is price, buyers & sellers etc… there’s not anyone who’s saying “Quick, price has hit the 14ema, hit the RED button!!!”… more a case of a previous pinch point for buyers becoming a good place to sell.
Hey jalapenoninja. It’s good to meet another Perthite. Interestingly I’ve been working on a similar methodology for the last three months, trying to combine VSA with a moving average on the 5M chart.
Regarding VSA, I assume you mainly look for “no demand / no supply” signals? I’ve noticed that small candles with high volume are also good candidates for the end of a pull back. The smaller candle suggests that the pull back is ending, and that higher volume means traders are moving in to resume the trend. Thoughts?
Yeh for sure, for me VSA is cause and effect. So on a small bar with high volume, (no effect), something odd is going on (ie: buyers coming in). On that one in particular, there are two no Demand Bars prior to it.
Check out the bearish bar 4 onwards from that, then price goes
Here’s a nice breakout short on AUDUSD, worth noting the initial swing low (we’re cautious at that price). On all of my entries I won’t consider it unless the entry offers 1:1 or 1R minimum, this trade “just” satisfied that criteria.
Here are the steps, got stopped out at even (cost me the fee of the trade), but now I’m set up to take a trade long on a pullback above the opening range.
Here’s the long taken that was mentioned in the previous trade. Previous trade stopped out at breakeven, price went long of the opening range, then I’m waiting for weakness on the pullback after an objective trend change.
This trade took over 40 minutes before I scratched it for 0.5R, normally I look for price to move quickly to 1R/breakeven. With the stopping volume marked, my thoughts are that price will meander for a bit and the Aussie has done it’s dash this morning.
Still, enter each trade with the same set of criteria, manage each trade with the same mechanical process, and let price take care of the rest.
Sorry to be a pain on these session times, but you state AUD Open. Do you not mean the Tokyo Open? Also, the open shown on your chart is 1 hour after my Tokyo open!!!, which I set the other morning using this excellent forex time converter Forex Market Hours - Forex Market Time Converter
Today, I made two pretty rushed trades with tight stops and profits, as I was taking the family out for the day. Both were stopped out pretty quickly. Lesson hopefully learned.
which pairs did you trade that stopped? had a good trade with GBP/USD earlier but lucked out on EUR/USD.
Can you post your MT4 time with the setting of your market start indicator? like i did back then? if you are GMT + 6, your offset should be -5, but could vary because of DST?
The Real Volume and Transactions indicators include information from all the retail traders at FXCM, but not from all the institutional traders at FXCM Pro.
Never a pain in the arse, always ask questions. In the above chart both the AUD and JPY open were a bit messy, but yep I think I meant the Tokyo Open.
We’ve all got different server times on our MT4 but here are my session times:
P.S. Also, I recommend the market hours tool on the homepage of forexfactory. Another solution would be to get the MT4 demo from XM, same server time as mine.
P.P.S. The open times for Sydney is incorrect on most online sites, I dunno why, I think they haven’t taken into account daylight saving.
Another solution is to use the broker ‘xm’ and download their MT4 platform (I use xm for charting, dukascopy for execution), then we’ll have the same server time.
Ah I see the problem here Pretty much no site online accounts for Australia having different daylight saving options. The times I’ve posted on that screen shot are the ones that correlate with the opening hours.
Using the 14/50 as a trend guide doesn’t help in a rangebound market, but using the highest swing highs & lowest swing lows is objective and bullet-proof.
Interestingly I’ve been working on a similar methodology for the last three months, trying to combine VSA with a moving average on the 5M chart.
Pretty much no site online accounts for Australia having different daylight saving options. The times I’ve posted on that screen shot are the ones that correlate with the opening hours.