Hey JN,
Here’s my EUR/USD chart and my analysis. I always start NY open thought because it’s the only free time i have(not sure if this is the best time to trade NY open) but here you go!
whats your MT4 time on AU open JN?
On this trade pipoy, opening range is lower, so short, but I’d be only looking to enter if I could hit 1R target profit at the bottom of the large bearish candle (15 mins in), as price “stopped dead” here.
Once price comes up to the 14ema, you don’t get a sign of No Supply Volume, (and it comes back above S&R). So definitely a good idea to abandon the trade.
2:00 using XM broker, at 7:00am my local time (I’m +8gmt)
this is much better (price interacting with S&R). In an ideal trade (and this first entry is), there’s plenty of room to hit 1R from entry to first swing low, and price breaks low clear of S&R and retraces underneath it.
On that second entry, I’d be tempted to have my SL above the first trades entry, when prices is around/close to a previous Swing High or Swing Low I’d rather be conservative with my SL.
Out of interest, what do you use the CCI indi for?
Morning Folks,
Here’s the AUDUSD this morning, I took this trade long on the retest of the opening range, with the Target Profit just under the 0.9400/S&R level. Note the stopping volume just after the tokyo open and the first retest (20 mins after open) didn’t have us entering low enough (use the 14ema as a guide). I exitted this trade early as it didn’t move quick enough, sadly (for me!) it went on to hit my 2R target profit.
Here’s the yen at the same time, even before the open, we’re at Friday’s session high and New York High, and on significant support & resistance, we’d want a very strong and clean break long before considering a long.
Note how price pretty much stays stuck within the opening range. No USDJPY opportunities this morning.
Well that is very weird. I just checked the times on the link I provided and Sydney and Tokyo are definitely wrong by 1 hour! It wasn’t that long ago I used that site and I am sure they were correct at the time and I actually copied the opening times to my sticky notes. Sydney time I already knew for certain but Tokyo was copied down and is 1hr different from what it is now. That is not a daylight savings thing for Tokyo I don’t think plus Frankfurt, London and New York are still correct? I know all of these times for sure now because my cTrader platform actually displays what markets are open at the time and I have verified all the times against that. Very odd but my sincere apologies to all for posting what turned out to be bad info.
I had found the site before you posted it. I think the best way to do it is to set the time on your pc to the local time of the market you “believe” is about to open and then adjust the indicator on the chart accordingly.
Hmmm. I’m just toying around with it to see if it validates the NS/ND part of the system. I haven’t fully unlocked how it correlates but there might be a pattern with it. Have you tried the CCI indi before?
Haven’t used the CCI indi myself, it looks like an oscilator? Just read a bit about it on investopedia, similar to an RSI based on price reverting to a mean.
Price, Volume & S&R for me 
Here’s a funny trade I took on the yen yesterday. (funny being really, really annoying…)
I missed the big move on the Euro and it didn’t really offer (me) any safe points of entry, but then after a large bit of stopping volume I thought it needed to burn off a few pips and would head south.
So I turned my attention to the yen, here’s the trade. This trade demonstrates where/how to place your stop loss and the benefits of doing so. Try and get out of the habit of placing an arbitrary stop loss at 5 or 10 pips, they’re meaningless, place your stops above recent swings highs or below recent swing lows.
[ol]
[li]Nice strong breakout but some heavy volume and a big wick on top, first point of possible stopping volume.
[/li][li]The next bar is also a strong bullish bar but with even more volume, I’m taking this one as my stopping volume and initial target. With such a strong move I’m looking for price to come back to S&R and/or 14ema.
[/li][li]Price comes back to the 14ema and offers a No Demand candle, I’ve set a buy stop order above this candle, SL is below the current swing low + a pip spread, TP is the next S&R above.
[/li][li]Entry is triggered and price moves up, note where price stops, at the first price we thought was stopping volume! I didn’t get to 1R so I didn’t move my initial stop.
[/li][li]Price spends the next 4 (four!) hours inbetween my stop loss and my entry. You could exit manually for a smaller loss than 1R, but I’m learning that if my entry is good and SL is in a good spot, to hold on.
[/li][li]My theory was that if the SL isn’t hit before the NY open, price should go up. A couple of near misses of the SL, but finally at the NY open price goes long of the opening range, takes a while but finally hits the TP. This was about a 5 hours scalp on the 5m TF! Oops.
[/li][li]
[/li][/ol]
Here’s the EURUSD from yesterday, with a few notes on why I sat there like a chump while it took off! 
First up is the 1.3600 level, around the 100’s I want price to be clear of it, this is why I’m not “short” on the initial opening range breakout low, and we’ve got the Asian Low just below it. Price rejects the 1.3600 on good volume (good volume being it’s the largest so far).
One sneaky entry for the brave is on the small test of the 1.3600 once it breaks back above, not for me. Price breaks strongly long out of the OR but I pegged this as stopping volume. Price has been so tight this last few weeks that any breakout of 10 pips or more is cause for a freak-out! 
Price did offer a reasonably entry once it retested the high of the opening range, before taking off! Up above though, I pegged a stopping volume, and the previous day’s high (red), so this is where I had price cooling off.
Price broke the previous day’s high, pulled back above S&R (you could have had a pullback entry on a smaller TF, but I don’t recommend going smaller than 5m). Then finally we get stopping volume. Look at the volume indi, the SV sticks out like dogs bollocks.
And so that’s why there wasn’t an entry on a 40 pip Euro move! 
I quite like the CCI, it is good for divergence. However, I am not sure it is of any use with this 5 minute time frame strategy and may deter you from entering a good set up. I had a Stochastic/RSI indicator on my charts but have removed it for that very reason.
Hi guys,
I have had very little time online today, but managed to take two trades, both ended up being in profit (1:1 RR)
First I caught the spike on the AUSUSD. I will admit it was not the cleanest of entries and I will put it down as a lucky trade. Less than 5 minutes to hit the profit target.
The second was on the EURUSD. Where I only just caught the set up.
I entered on the second pull back/ doji no supply (is that correct?) candle. My entry was slightly late, but I considered it was just about acceptable.
An hour and a half later, my profit target was reached.
The great thing about the 5 minute time frame, is there are usually plenty of set ups. The problem is you have to be continually watching the charts, without distractions.
Cheers
Daxter
Hey Daxter,
Nice work on getting a couple of entries! I’ve had a look at this EUR trade, I’m not too sure I would have taken it, I’ll outline my points below. Again though, well done on entering trades, my comments below are only my opinion inline with the first post, don’t be discouraged (hopefully they help).
Firstly, (I’l go from left to right); price has broken below S&R, previous day’s low and 1.3600, and we’re in a downtrend until price tells us otherwise, so I’m initially bearish here. On a large move I’m a bit more detailed with marking swing lows and highs to define the trend, so you can see where I’ve marked “LSL” (that’s the lowest swing low) and subsequently the SHB4LSL (swing high before lowest swing low), if price breaks above the SHB4LSL then we’ve changed the trend.
See the “big” drop fro the opening range, about 10 candles in? This has stopping volume, a large volume that’s out of the blue and a big wick on the bottom. At our LSL I don’t see stopping volume here, so I’m not too concerned about price reversing yet.
Moving along, (I’m still looking for a short), I’m waiting for price to interact with S&R or 14ema, at “1.” price interacts with S&R but on large(ish) volume, possibly bullish, so I’m sitting on my hands still. At “2.” there’s a bit of volume but a wick on the top (like a mini stopping volume), the candle at “3.” is enough for me to set an order short below this candle. (and note that price is at the SHB4LSL, the key trend changing price).
Our short order would be filled and closed through 1R so I’d move the stop to B/E. Only to be burnt because price went up & the bulls won!
I wouldn’t be “long” in my bias until price broke above the SHB4LSL, but it’s worth noting that the previous day’s low is a great place to buy (and vice versa for previous day’s high).
With my short entry a failure, I’d be wondering if the bulls had taken control, a gambling man could take an entry above the doji at “4.” but I’d be taking my entry above “5.”
This is a good example I guess of using objective trend definition versus 14/50ema.
I’m not sure if you’re initial TP, SL and Entry would have equalled more than 1R? (ie: risking more than you’d win). Just to make it even though, I finished yesterday at -2.8R, so it was a tricky day for me!
Try having a TP in mind but not an order in on MT4, and trail a stop loss with a pip gap underneath the bullish candles, you’d have ridden this trade for a lot longer.
Hi Jalapenoninja,
I’ve been so far a silent lurker on your thread but read every post with up-most interest. I enjoy reading your thought process to decide taking a trade and when to exit. I have a couple of question which I would like to have your opinion on:
- How do you discern when a volume bar is good enough to be considered a real no-demand no-supply signal? I mean, Petefader defines the bar just below the last two candles, but that “just below” can change a bit depending on your broker. With one broker you see the bar just below whereas with another broker it’s slightly higher or same level as previous one. That issue is related to my second question:
- What broker have you seen son far that gives better volume information? I’m checking 3 brokers right now and even though the differences are not overwhelming, those are big enough to cause you to make wrong trading decision like declaring a ND/NS bar when it isn’t. I’m checking a broker petefader advised to give good volume (IBFX) but not truly convinced that one is good. I see some missing bars.
Thanks in advance for your time.
Hi Keen,
No probs mate, I’ve had this exact volume/broker chat with a friend yesterday. I’ve moved from requiring an “exact” NDNS volume, so wanting to see a “sign” no NDNS prior to entry.
Like, if I need a volume less than say “278” (random number), but my broker closes the candle and the volume at 280, then technically it’s not a NDNS volume, but with forex not being centralized etc… it’s probably a bit silly to ignore this setup just because my broker printed 280 on the volume bar.
So what I’d look for on the pullback is less volume or equal volume, read the candle, basically just check that the volume is weaker on the pullback.
I use XM for my charting/volume, and haven’t had a problem with them for what it’s worth. I use dukascopy for my execution, but have noticed their volume feed isn’t very good (I think this is due to them being a smaller broker).
Morning Folks,
Here’s a good example of Swing Lows/Lowest Swing Lows and trend definitions etc… I think the motto is:
Stick with the trend until proven otherwise!
By otherwise, I want to see price break the swing prior to the lowest swing low (or highest swing high), then a weak retest of that price. So on this AUD setup below, even though we’ve broken above the OR the trend is down, and remains down.
Ordinarily I would have watched the trade, but in this instance I had too much on my plate and left it to run returning some 8 hours later.
Your analysis is excellent, but perhaps demonstrates the over reliance on moving averages. Until you mentioned on this thread that you were going to explore removing the moving averages, I never gave it a second thought.
Anyway thanks for excellent analysis.
Daxter