Just a question on no supply / no demand candles. Should a NS candle’s close finish in the bottom 50% of the candle’s range? (and vice versa for ND candles?)
Hey Kevin,
I’ve sketched this masterpiece up from yesterday’s action:
I don’t think the candle close has to be in the top 50% (ND in this case), but I do err on the side of caution if it’s just a big pin bar. Like in this example sketched, if the close was in the bottom 25% I’d be cautious. If you get a bearish pin on NSND volume, to me that indicates a bearish move; with participants losing interest in being short.
NDNS are a bit interpretive, but (imo) there are a few things that stick out. Once you include trend and context (around S&R) I tend to take NDNS candle more than I ignore them. Often times, with different broker feeds what I will get as a NDNS candle with volume “79”, you might get volume “81” and it won’t be a NDNS for you. As a result of this I’ve started to look for “signs” of NDNS versus an exact candle match.
I think petefader’s NDNS video is to look for something a bit more exact. And then waiting for a candle close confirmation on the following candles.
Hi JN, guys,
I’m posting this trade I took today on the EURJPY which gave 3 ND signals encouraged by a solid 1H downtrend. I took it and held “hoping” the downtrend would continue but as you can see it went nicely the other way. The only warning I saw (of course after my SL was hit) was SV on the 30M TF.
I would like to have your opinions on what I did wrong or if the ND signals were not taken on context (as said it was a downtrend).
Should I have ignored the 3 ND signals as there was this mild SV on the 30M?
JN, one last question for you: if you see a NS/ND signal but just after a few candles see an opposite NS/ND signal, what do you do? Scratch the first trade and go with the second? Continue with the first one? I know it depends a lot on the context, but I would like to know your thought process in such case.
Hey keen, first off, good work for taking a trade, and also for posting it, we can all learn from posting trades.
Now into the nitty-gritty of pulling this apart! 
So I’m going to just refer back to the introductory posts here, so it’s as transparent as possible.
Firstly, trading a cross, I’d be double checking both base pairs, in this case, UJ and EU, looking at both of them here (the NY Open I think?) they’re both at the previous day’s low (strong buying area).
I’ve loaded up the NY open for EJ last night, and using the template (Market Session Hours, Support & resistance, Opening range, Previous DAy’s high and low), even on a “naked” chart, these are the basic essentials for me.
Let’s run through the trade:
[ol]
[li]First port of call, I don’t look to any higher timeframe than the 5m chart, I’ve been up to the daily, 4hr etc, but if you’re taking entries on a 5m TF, stick to the 5m TF for now,
[/li][li]A New session or high impact news can change market sentiment, you often get traders taking profits and shuffling their papers before a new session, so a downward move prior to a session open won’t nececsarily mean a change of trend, keep your guns in their holsters half an hour prior to a session open,
[/li][li]From the NY Open shown, just looking at structure, I’m looking for a really clean (strong candle) break either high or low of the opening range, I’d prefer a break above here as we’re at the previous day’s low. the Asian session Low is just below us which would offer some support,
[/li][li]I appreciate not trying to use MAs on a chart, but the strategy is as per the opening posts, as a minimum put the 14 ema on there, it’ll remind you where “good value” is to be buying or selling,
[/li][li]Once (if) we get a clean break long or short, I want a pullback to the 14ema on No Supply or No demand AND outside of the opening range, once price comes back into the opening range, the bulls and the bears are back to their arm-wrestle and market sentiment is unclear,
[/li][li]There was some high impact USDCAD news at 8:30 (6 bars after NY Open) which may have also affected price,
[/li][/ol]
So that’s that (unfortunately)! 
If you’r going to opt for a naked chart, I’d highly recommend the 14ema, Murray Math S&R, PDHL, NewCal and a market sessions indicator. I am often very guilty of getting tunnel vision looking at a trade and forgetting that a news announcement is due 
On the crosses though, say EJ and GJ, when both base pairs are moving in the same direction, the crossses are fantastic, but if the base pairs are opposing, the crosses are a mess.
Also keep in mind keen, that NSND candles are only “part” of the entry strategy. I just noticed where your trade got stopped out, that’s a huge SL! 
On the point about stopping volume, check out the second SV Daxter has noted here 301 Moved Permanently
It’s really volume that “sticks out”… I had it as something like 2x 20SMA of volume (if you wanted to be objective). But it’s really just volume that really sticks out from the rest.
Have to say guys (& girls), this past few weeks hasn’t been the ideal trading environment to start a ‘trend’ based forum! 
Most pairs have either been very tightly range-bound or moved off one big news announcement.
Hopefully things will start moving now that the US summer/holidays have been and gone (I hope!)
Thanks a lot JN for the comprehensive explanation. I particularly liked the advise about checking the base currencies of the crosses (that’s gonna go at the top of my daily plan checks). I’ll load the template you suggested so my charts look like yours and we can discuss over the same picture.
Thanks again for your time. I learnt a lot. I’ll try to put everything into practice.
Cheers.
More than welcome mate, over the weekend I’ll put together a bit of a checklist that everyone can print out, and we’ll all refer to that together before entering trades.
Keep at it, there’s a lot to learn, but making mistakes reinforces it all (I’ve made YEARS of mistakes!!)
This was a trade I took a few hours ago. Spotted a ND candle on the AUDJPY just below the Asian session low (which had just broke) and the Frankfurt opening range. I was expecting the candle at the next support level to break and close bearishly. Instead it was a high volume, bullish range candle, which told me that short-term sentiment had become neutral (still going through yourtradingcoach. This guy teaches alot of unique concepts ).
Another short after a test of the Frankfurt Opening Range Low, you’re making this setup your specialty eh? My only thing to add, it’s right on the London Open, but I find that if a setup screams “enter” a session open usually helps propel it into profit. Nice one mate.
P.S. It’s personal preference, but I’d have that SL tighter, a pip or pip & a half above the swing high, and I’d have the sell stop order quite close underneath there, on these smaller trades it can help the R:R.
Afternoon folks,
Here’s a USDJPY Long that I’m currently trailing a SL underneath the bullish candles.
Keeping in mind that today is heavy PMI data day, so it’s really a mess of a London Session.
Price breaks below OR, so we’re short, but then heavy stopping volume comes in at S&R below, and price responds accordingly, back up into the opening range.
Now, we didn’t get a clean break above the OR, but I took into account where price has come from, and the very weak bearish candles we get where I’ve indicated “2”. A Buy Stop order is placed above the bearish No Demand Candles, and SL placed below the swing low.
From the other day’s Euro trade, I’m not setting a TP at the previous day’s high, I’ll just trail the SL below the bullish candles.
Hi Rodtoe,
Welcome to the forum & thanks for posting a chart. A few comments below that I’ve marked up, but my first would be that I would advise against trading GU or EU during the Asian session, there’s not enough volume.
Running through the chart though, we’ve correctly got a break above the OR (Long), and the trend is up (Long), waiting for a pullback to the 14ema, we don’t get any volume that suggests we should be fading an entry.
Note on the chart, if we got supportive volume, I’d place a buy stop order ABOVE the bearish candle, I don’t enter at market. So in this case, the order wouldn’t have been filled and we’d still have our $$ in our pockets.
Consider these steps when looking for an entry:
Hi Ninja,
Thank you for your quick reply. Plz clarify my doubt mentioned below
- What do u mean by Clear path to Profit (1RMin)
- if you dont see No supply candle, should i place the order above the BULL/BEAR Candle.
- If i see a no supply can i enter immediately .
- Which currency to trade on Asian and London session
Hi Guys,
This is a trade I have just taken on GBPAUD on my demo account.
Quick analysis.
1 and 2 - Strong stopping volume with Candle 2 testing the previous days high and a strong level of S/R.
3 - Previous days high re-tested.
4 - No demand (low volume) suggests sellers are taking control.
I set my entry 1 pip below the low of the no demand candle and stop loss 1.5 pips above the immediate swing high. The profit target is a fraction above the opening range. I will keep an eye on the trade and if I dont get stopped out, I will trail my stop at swing highs, as possible high impact news is due out of the UK a few hours time.
Lets see what happens.
Cheers
Daxter
Rodtoe, I’d advise that you read through the initial posts (posts 1 -6) and study each of the external links.
Clear path to profit means that price will not be obscured by stopping volume, SR, previous swings, 100 S&R, or the opening range. Until I see NDNS volume, I’m not interested in the trade.
I trade AUD and JPY during Asia, and GBP, EUR and JPY during London.
Nice daxter, it’s like we’re speaking the same language!!
I’ve looked into these reversals, they’re not a part of this strategy (yet), but I’d only consider them at the previous day’s high/low like you’ve done here. Number “2” is textbook stopping volume right there. Hope this trade pans out
Stopping volume (imo) has come in at yesterday’s New York Session high. I’d consider trailing to breakeven if you’ve not done already.
Hi Rodtoe,
I will try and clarify.
- If you have set up your charts as Ninja and I have done, you do not want to see any levels of support or resistance, the opening range, the previous days high/ low or the highs/ lows (depending on whether it is bearish or bullish) of stopping volume in the way. You will see from the chart I posted earlier, part from a minor level (1 Hour) of support/restistance (which was close to the opening range), there was nothing in the way of my profit target (which should be a minimum of 1:1 RR).
This is a good example of a trade on USDAUD that I and I suspect Ninja would not have taken. For two reasons.
-
Price was within the opening range, where there is a battle between buyers and sellers for control.
-
There is not a clear path to a profit target of a minimum 1:1 RR.
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If you dont see low volume (no demand/ no supply) which should be lower than the previous two volumes, do NOT enter a trade.
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I would not enter immediately unless price was moving to my entry position and only then.
-
As Ninja said JPY and AUD pairs during the Asian session (I look at the GBPAUD, AUDUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY) During the European and New York sessions, in addition to the previous 4 I also have the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and the USDCAD open.
Cheers
Daxter
Update on the GBPAUD trade.
Price moved to within 1.3 pips of the profit target where it hit some stopping volume at 5. This is now a potential area of resistance and I have moved the take profit to a fraction above same. Arguably, I should place the profit target at the 50 ema as this may act as dynamic support and is now obstructing the pathway to the profit target.
With time approaching the opening of the European session and important news due out of the UK, which will almost certainly affect the trade, I have moved the stop to break even.
Daxter
I still think this was a nice trade, but probably in a quieter time of the Asian session. This setup is outside the scope of this forum (for now). But next time fade a sell stop order tighter under “4” if you get a No Supply candle, give it about 0.5 pips room to breathe. counter-trend trades I’m always tempted to take profits a bit quicker than with trend.
Nice work though on acknowledging the PDH, S&R & SV, good stuff. Half an hour until EU Open, keep your guns holstered (imo).