5m TF Price Action Strategy

[jalapenoninja]

Morning Daxter,

I think the above analysis works with removing any mention of moving average. It’s something I’ll look into trading without, but basically the entry I’m looking for (at 3.) is a test of S&R or previous Swing High. The 14ema usually coincides with these or is atleast a good reminder to keep your guns holstered.

The price break long of the 14ema here (after the number 4) is almost spot on with an objective trend change definition, so it has value (imo). I’m not campaigning for moving average, lol, but I think they have value.

This is how I’ll always define the trend/bias -> Trend

[pipoy]

Hi JN,

SH = Short? so you entered on the middle large red bar.

SHB4LSL= short before lowest swing low?

In the span of the firs SL and LSL you entered short 2x?

@jalapenoninja

Morning Folks,

Here’s a good example of Swing Lows/Lowest Swing Lows and trend definitions etc… I think the motto is:

By otherwise, I want to see price break the swing prior to the lowest swing low (or highest swing high), then a weak retest of that price. So on this AUD setup below, even though we’ve broken above the OR the trend is down, and remains down.

[jalapenoninja]

HI Pipoy,

Sorry for the confusion, SH = swing high, SL = Swing low (or stop loss, depending on context).

SHB4LSL, Swing High Before Lowest Swing Low
SLB4HSH, Swing Low Before Highest Swing High

[jalapenoninja]

Hey Guys,

There looks to be a (small bit) of confusion possibly about entries, so I put this together, hope it helps. Please, ask me any questions etc.

[pipoy]

thanks for clarifying that!

i was thinking SH = short

This is actually an interesting example because, i often misinterpret the breakout from the opening range then the trend reverses. The chart you showed is actually a good setup for shorting.

[jalapenoninja]

Morning Folks,

Here’s the yen from this morning, I had one trade at breakeven, one into 3R profit. Below I’ll explain each step as objectively as possible. Any confusion, please ask!

[ol]
[li]Prior to Tokyo Open, price is trending up. Price broke long of the AUD opening Range.
[/li][li]We’ve got S&R up above, so I’d expect price to “sell” from here, or meet some resistance. At the session open, I’ll sometimes extend the opening range to include any nearby S&R.
[/li][li]Price breaks long of the OR, if we can get an entry nice and low from the OR, I’ll take it, if not, I’ll wait for a break of the S&R above.
[/li][li]We get a nice No Supply candle, a small bearish candle, right on the OR and with volume lower than the previous 2. Significantly lower volume here. I get an entry filled low, price closes through 1R for me and I’ve trailed my SL to BE. Price ‘sells’ at resistance and I’m stopped out. Cost me the transaction cost.
[/li][li]Price comes back into the OR. I’m still “bullish” as we’re also near the previous day’s low (buyers). We’ll have another try at going long on a break above the OR or S&R. A couple of nice signs of No Supply.
[/li][li]Price breaks long, doesn’t show any signs of selling at S&R, so wait for a sign of No Supply.
[/li][li]A couple of nice no supply candles, and I’ve got an entry set long, above S&R, after signs of no supply. Target profit up to next S&R.
[/li][li]Price doesn’t hit TP, and heavy stopping volume comes in. (Look down at that volume!). I’m not confident of price continuing but I’ll hold & trail below bulls until TP.
[/li][/ol]

[Kevin_LaCoste]

Hope you’re trading day has been good so far. I caught a good downward move on the AUDUSD after the London Open when support broke and I saw a weak pullback towards support-now-turned-resistance. Plus the reaction to support just before the break looked weak. Looked like a good signal to go short. I took profit when I saw some stopping volume at the bottom of the large bear candle.

BTW, I downloaded the course at yourtradingcoach. The material is absolutely gold. As you can see, I’m drawing manual trend lines to visually measure momentum and price swings. It helps to identify strength and weakness.

[jalapenoninja]

Hey Kevin,

Excellente mate, please post as many charts as you like. Not to beat my (or this thread’s drum), but if you squint your eyes a bit, you could say you went short after price tested the low of the Frankfurt Opening Range.

There’s a good little highlighter.exe for windows and I use highlight for mac, I used to use that as they were both effective for overlaying (like drawing with a marker on an overhead projector) over charts, to show the SHs & SLs really obviously.

I like this short more & more, as it had a couple of signs of No Demand also on the volume. (Feel free to throw the Murray Math S&R on your chart as these corresponding quite well with your manual ones, also on Adam Jowett’s market sessions indi, the previous sessions high & low are handy, this short is from the Asian Low)

Hope you’re trading day has been good so far. I caught a good downward move on the AUDUSD after the London Open when support broke and I saw a weak pullback towards support-now-turned-resistance…

[jalapenoninja]

No entries for me this morning on the yen or AUD, and two entries on the Euro this afternoon, I’ll post it all up in the morning as I’m hitting the hay & not trading the NY session. I’ll also post a couple of things about trading journals and what I track (ie: what I think would help you in your trading), just a few key metrics. Best of luck if you’re trading the NY session!

JN

[jalapenoninja]

Hey Guys,

Here are my Euro trades from yesterday, the first was stopped out back at breakeven after closing through 1R, the second I was going to be burnt twice, so set a target profit instead of trailing. The moves yesterday were dictated by the USD, as the pound (and Kevin’s Aussie trade from above) all show similar swings.

From the Open, before any prices have moved, we’re close to the previous day’s high (sellers), so if price moved to around here, I’d be looking for friday’s sellers to try and sell again. Opening range breakout is short initially, we’re bearish from the outset.

Prior to London price shoots down fast, no opportunity for entry and provides stopping volume, so I’m either looking for price to come back to S&R at 1.35345 to give me atleast a little bit of room to profit with the stopping volume as my TP, or I’m looking for price to go lower than the stopping volume.

Price goes lower than the SV (which is also at S&R and Asian Low), a small No Demand opportunity, and although price isn’t backto the 14ema, I’m comfortable with an entry here. Price is supported below at 1.35193 (white line), hindsight has you setting a TP here, but it could have well gone on. I’m stopped out at BE.

In line with the rules set out in the first few posts, I’m short with the trend, waiting for a test of S&R or 14ema, and no demand volume. I get a nice pin with volume indicating short, then two ND candles, fade an entry below here. Not to get burnt again, I’ve set a TP at the S&R below and get a nice trade here.

That’s my session over, but there’s another “similar” entry to be taken about an hour later.

[jalapenoninja]

Afternoon Folks (Euro session has started),

I was watching the yen and AUD this morning, and the AUD offered up a nice long that I took. Initially price is inbetween a rock and a hard place, but I’m always cheering on buying from the previous day’s low and selling from the PDH.

Running through the trade objectively as per the first few posts:

[ul]
[li]The structure from the Murray Math S&R & Previous Day’s High & Low indis sets out our Support & Resistance, and we’ve got an opening range of Tokyo,
[/li][li]Price breaks long of the Opening Range, but offers some stopping volume, so now we’ve got a new price level of sellers to think about,
[/li][li]I’d like a No Supply candle and supportive volume for an entry very close to the top of the opening range, or else I want a break out above the prevous day’s low (Green Line) and preferably that area of stopping volume,
[/li][li]We get a nice No Supply candle/volume, and then an even bigger bullish pin, good enough for me,
[/li][li]This trade moves straight to 1R, so we can trail the stop loss to breakeven, I then trail the stop loss underneath each bullish candle, eventually getting stopped out right near the S&R above,
[/li][li]Happy to get out of this trade, as some big volatile AUD news was coming,
[/li][/ul]

[jalapenoninja]

From my trading plan, here’s how I manage the trade (for those interested in doing something similar)

[jalapenoninja]

Morning Guys & Gals,

Here’s my Euro trade from yesterday, on such a big move I (and you) should have been popping the champagne!

Here’s how it played out in line with the rules setout in the first few posts:

[ul]
[li]Trend is down,
[/li][li]Opening Range break is low,
[/li][li]Pullback below S&R on lower demand,
[/li][li]Entry!
[/li][/ul]

Now, the hindsight gurus (myself included) would have trailed a stop, but in truth, I waited an hour for this trade to stop bouncing around, it shaved my SL but didn’t hit it, then moved into 2R profit (very slowly), so I set a TP at the previous day’s low (green line). I celebrated for about, 30 seconds, at which point, price dropped, and dropped, and dropped!

Note to self, trail a TP, always!

This would have been around an 8:1 R:R trade, which is why the 5m TF gets my vote. This past month (imo) has been very range-bound and congested. When price starts moving around, these opening range breakouts become more and more prevalent.

[Jimmeh]

The “crying like a baby” level cracked me up JN. Good work!

[jalapenoninja]

Is there anything else I can detail in my posts on here to help you guys along?

The “crying like a baby” level cracked me up JN. Good work!

[Daxter1962]

I was too busy to spend any real time at my charts yesterday, and sadly arrived at the EURUSD after the movement took place. However, I annotated the chart and there were 5 no demand candles where I would have entered, including the “crying like a baby” level.

Daxter

[Daxter1962]

Is there anything else I can detail in my posts on here to help you guys along?

I dont think so, your analysis is spot on.

I am currently experimenting but wont go into details as this is your thread, but if I find it improves results I will of course post full details.

[jalapenoninja]

I was too busy rocking back and forth in the corner of the room!

Well spotted to, after the ‘baby’ level, there are three opportunities to short. Funnily, this afternoon’s Euro has done the same and I trailed, only for it to reverse at the PDL!

You could have infact re-entered just below the “crying like a baby” level as there was a no demand retracement, which if allowed to run would now be 35 pips up.

[jalapenoninja]

Here’s a really nice example of stopping volume on the Euro this afternoon. The best way to think of Stopping Volume is “dynamic” or “live” Support & resistance that you need to add to the chart.

I see them as price levels that can mess up a really nice chart! But I still respect them (much to my own dislike of them…)

[jalapenoninja]

On these ND locations Daxter, I’ve got a few comments. I’ll go from left to right, and talk about each one.

I’d enter on one, as it’s a pullback to the OR, I’d skip two as it’s an extension (looks good on the chart in hindsight though), the third is too close to the previous day’s low for me (should have been buyers coming in), definitely tempted at number 4 right on the PDL though.

Now the big move has happened, onto ND #5, I’d want more of a pullback here, unless with the Murray Math at the time, this was “below” S&R. Good spot on the SV coming in there, and the second one.

The second SV you’ve noted is stopping volume, the first one is just a strong bullish pin. Stopping volume is on bearish candles. It’s kind of a “top secret” volume. If you came at it from a beginner POV, it’s a strong bearish candle, with a small wick on thebottom, but huge volume, this is a strong bearish move, surely! But not if you know about SV… (so great pick up is what I’m saying!)

The ND after the SV you’ve pcked up is the nicest of the lot, but not on your chart. 5 consecutive ND’s up to the 14ema before a nice entry with the bottom of the SV as TP.

I was too busy to spend any real time at my charts yesterday…