60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

[peterma]

Just saw this quote from the DUP (small party propping up the UK Govt with 10 mp’s).
(same party voted against the agreement)

“We’ll support Theresa May…we’ll see the Conservative govt continuing to deliver on Brexit.”

Hmmm… politicians

Edit: Boris Johnson adds that the result gives Theresa May a “massive mandate” to go back to Brussels.

[PipMeHappy]

I think Brexit will not happen, for whoever will be in government in the next few weeks may well consider asking the EU to revoke article 50. Given that nobody wants a no-deal and there is no time for a second referendum or.further negotiations, it may be the only solution.

[PipMeHappy]

How does a no-confidence motion work, and what's next for May?

[peterma]

Just an update - especially if trading GBP next week.

There is the possibility of renewed volatility on GBP due to political debates and associated votes to take place in Westminster this upcoming week. The market has been expecting at least an extension of Brexit date and has been trading UK data (earnings index) instead of Brexit this past week, any political upheaval could cause disruption to the trend.

On a personal note, which will not be mentioned again, the effect of Brexit and the apparent no deal looming will have major negative effects on my business, my city, my community and my family.

I live and do business on the NI land border, in our community and businesses Euros and Gbp’s circulate together freely - for this reason we need to become familiar with market activity and likely exchange rate direction.

The two economies and communities are very closely intertwined and even the thought of a hard border between the two gives me goose pimples.

A majority in NI voted to remain within the EU likely based on these reasons but alas there was one political party that opted for leave - the DUP - and by chance their 10 mp’s hold the balance of power in Westminster - the best we could hope for is that the invisible border would stay.

The UK PM likewise opted for such a scenario in Dec 2017 when she was ready to sign an agreement keeping NI in alignment with EU regulations - the DUP said NO and the Mrs May had to return without signing.

To date the EU 27 have also insisted on a seamless border and so the ‘backstop’ was born.

It’s all a long story, well told by the US NBC, the short video sums up best for local people.

Boundary issues: Brexit threatens to reopen old wounds in Northern Ireland

[anon76360754]

There is the possibility of renewed volatility on GBP

I like the sound of that - fingers crossed anyway, this week has been far too smooth for my liking in GBP.USD

ps. I hope the final outcome works in your favour for your business and family, whatever the outcome will be - most likely an extension in my view; which means very little from a decision and preparation point of view.

[peterma]

this week has been far too smooth for my liking in GBP.USD

Aha Jezz you missed my heads up on the thread about interest rates - this week was sitting out for a rise on cable - Brexit baloney on the back burner and Tuesday morning for the earnings index - perfect mix, must post a chart for learners of FA in later times.

Anyways, posted the NBC above, then today Bloomberg went one better and did this interview. Mostly UK guys would have zero interest but our US cousins do want to know…

Underlines what my post was all about…hmmm… seems BP is well read…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/varadkar-says-troops-could-return-to-border-in-botched-brexit

Edit: Got the chart posted on cable here, now off for the weekend
Effect of interest rates on dollar-assets? [Please help]

[anon76360754]

ah I see, perhaps a misunderstanding in my termonoligy. When I say it was way to smooth I mean to suggest that it was text book entries, of a better word. I’m all for these types of weeks, but I prefer the markets to whip around a little, I get my money’s worth of emotions

[peterma]

The saga of the Brexit negotiations appear to be drawing to a close in the incoming week.

There is still no agreement despite the technical talks over this weekend, the signs are that there is no breakthrough despite some optimism late last week.

Some guys are commentating that the fact that talks are continuing over the weekend is positive but the reality is that the EU chief negotiator is not present, not even in Brussels.

History in the making

[peterma]

Last comment was 9 weeks ago - nothing much has changed since.

There were hopes of a comprise between the two main parties but it became clear that this would be a difficult task from the beginning of last week - there were some negative comments by the shadow chancellor over the preceding weekend.

Eur/Gbp managed to reach down to 85.00 but last week’s monday turned it around.

The outlook? - general GBP weakness as political uncertainty in UK will gather pace.

[Falstaff]

Last comment was 9 weeks ago - nothing much has changed since.

Well not much except our “Democratically Elected” Government Reneging on their Manifesto Commitments and their promises around the Referendum and Reneging On Theresa Mays Absolute promise to "Leave on March 29 = With or without a deal ! "

so no “Not much” except a Complete crisis of DEMOCRACY ! and the Formation of a completely new Political Party which is Now polling more votes in teh 5 weeks it has existed than the two “Main Parties” Put together. Not Much except the Conservatives now polling 9% ! - Single figures - 5TH Behind the “Greens” solely because of May’s disgraceful actions and total lack of integrity in this matter !

The Conservatives have NEVER since their formation “polled” in single figures!

History in the making

Yes indeed - “History” will not treat Theresa May kindly - Unlike her predecessor Maggie Thatcher - but then maybe TM could be a product of “Affirmative action” ? - certainly the way the path to the premiership “cleared itself to let her through” it seems that might have been the case ?

[sorif01]

Extraordinary, I think we need to sell the Pound then in light of the fact that Brexit won’t occur and Britain will remain in EU after second submission

[peterma]

I think we need to sell the Pound then in light of the fact that Brexit won’t occur and Britain will remain in EU after second submission

You are correct that Gbp is a Brexit play, the market is taking little notice of numbers but reacting to the nuances of UK politics.

Eur/Gbp is the cross most affected by Brexit so good idea to look at the levels there to gauge what may happen to GBP in general up ahead.

E.g. look at the daily Eur/Gbp - 85.00 has held since Mid March (hence the not much change remark) - now if the market were to think that the Brexit conundrum is going to be resolved to the benefit of the UK then that level will give, if not then around 90.00 - this is a good way to figure how the market is thinking.

(btw) see the relevance of 87.20 and how it was support when confirmation at the end of past week of no agreement between Lab and Con.

[peterma]

Here is another little thought - sometimes a learner will encounter FA vs TA, the notion that today’s algo drlven market can be divided.

Look again at the above daily - 8720 support, then later resistance - nothing special.

Zoom in on Friday hr1. Friday morning final confirmation that the talks were dead - so resistance became support:

https://www.politico.eu/article/labour-ends-brexit-talks-with-conservatives/

Edit: but I never trade crosses - so check Gbp/Usd Friday’s timing and prices.

[adam00]

Extraordinary, I think we need to sell the Pound then in light of the fact that Brexit won’t occur and Britain will remain in EU after second choice

[peterma]

Sorif and Adam - likely the same - the internet is full of weird and wonderful people

[peterma]

Yes indeed - “History”

History has taught me much, this evening I watched the Cuban Missile Crisis and how close it came to WW3.

Earlier today I drove past a monument located at an ambush site in County Cork.

There was division back then in Ireland, there was an agreement (treaty) with the British, some agreed to it’s signing, others disagreed.

The argument became violent and led to civil war.

This is why I still have hope that the UK will reconcile the Brexit argument, as Churchill said 'better to jaw jaw than to war war.

Michael Collins Death - Béal na Bláth, County Cork

[Falstaff]

double post

[Falstaff]

Churchill said 'better to jaw jaw than to war war.

this evening I watched the Cuban Missile Crisis and how close it came to WW3.

we went to Cuba a few years ago - went round Che Guevara’s mausoleum - The tour guide was a lecturer in Russian at the University before Russia left.

Amazingly Schitzophrenic place - gave you a “Passport stamp” on a piece of paper in case you ever wanted to go to USA !!

Saw an aeroplane shot down in the “Bay of Pigs” invasion.

But there was no “Jaw-Jaw” in the Cuban crisis - I do remember being at school, not knowing for certain whether I would see my parents again.

The fact is that sometimes we have to address the small things - or else big things develop.

Many of us are only just waking up to see what the EU Project has been intending to be as our future ever since Heath signed us in WITHOUT telling us of the true intention.

You seem to have some acedemic connections in the “Arts” ? whereas I am STEM - so my guess is that you already knew that the “Project’s” intentions were from your “history” learning. Also @pipmehappy seems to be aware of it’s Power Grabbing agenda - whereas @tommor - even now refuses to believe that our “House of Commons” and “Huse of Lords” could possibly betray the trust of the people by selling us out !

30 pieces of silver indeed !

Hear what Professor Bogdanor has to say about the “Stealth method” of the EU trying to take us all over without actually telling us !

Is it any surprise then that those of us who ARE waking up are mightily Pissed off about it ?

That goes for All of our European Brethren (and Sistren) who are just now finding out ! !

[peterma]

You seem to have some acedemic connections in the “Arts” ?

Nah - just an old guy who left school with some ‘O’ levels but had big ideas that I could teach myself everything.

Still have the same ideas and still learning.

I did meet a person some years ago that I instinctively understood knew everything that there is to know, gave me a simple lesson that helped a great deal, likewise not an academic.

Anyways, you are right, it’s the little things in life that makes us great.

[Eroedon]

So the England already leaved EU or not really ? I still see it something like that it’s in EU still. For sure GBP was separate currency very long time ago. I do understand that EU in a very big crisis really here. So let’s wait out a bit for that. I am eager to see what is next.