The UK govt pulled the pin on the vote yesterday so the price fall that was anticipated for today happened 24 hours early.
There was a heightened risk of this happening therefore my thinking on taking a position on Friday and holding over the weekend rather than waiting until Monday.
That’s really it, all rather mundane.
What’s going to happen right now?
Not really a lot in the immediate future - the risk of a change of PM, or rather an election to attempt a PM change has increased.
Such a scenario would be a GBP sell, then the voting process would cause some volatility, but that’s for another day.
That was 2hrs ago - one hour ago and ITV journalist, Robt Peston reporting that leak from Tory party says 48 letters received regarding PM no confidence vote.
Chances are this being true are quite high - watch out tomorrow morning.
Vote will happen between 6pm and 8pm today, Wednesday GMT - the market focus will be whether the PM survives, rules are that she has to win by at least one vote, reality is that the margin needs to be higher.
Steve Eisman is short 3 UK banks based on the premise of a no deal and/or a Labour Govt - there is a reasonable chance that he will have added to his positions.
Results will be announced later this evening, difficult to tell direction right now so many pound traders will just wait.
Oh - how come I posted about the possibility of leadership ahead of the leak?
Inside information - i.e. information inside my head, I remembered the last confidence vote on a sitting PM - the issue was the EU, the PM was female and the party waited until she was out of the country.
Price was at 2545 then, now at 2610 - more likely to consolidate around this level.
Still looks like a win for PM - the numbers will give some clarity on the task of the ‘meaningful vote’ question, also possible that this will stall the selling of late on GBP.
Oh - forgot about that - 2680 became a pill too bitter to swallow for buyers - see how price managed 2685 and baulked, then down more than 100 pips - that post was Thursday morning - there were two more efforts at 2680, then yesterday the drop.
No takers (buyers) for the offer methinks - that’s levels and FA .
What about nest week? - sell the highs perhaps - although there are rumours afoot in Westminster and as always - don’t buy the rumour, wait for the fact.
Quick update - pound traders maybe caught on the hop today, meant to post earlier - the reason for GBP buying was that Tory Party MEP’s were called to UK PM’s HQ (no.10) today.
The market suspects that the reason is to inform them that they will be seeking re-election this coming May to the EU parliament even though that the UK will have left (apparently) by March 29th.
Classic case of buying a rumour, the weekend will add more clarity, lol - that’s a word very scarce in the Brexit debate
Much larger than anticipated from EU perspective - agreement in that quarter now that there is nothing more to be done (by EU) so they are stepping up no deal preparations.
Likely that’s the way it will go so I had better get back to reading those 100’s of pages from HMRC
I think Brexit will not happen, for whoever will be in government in the next few weeks may well consider asking the EU to revoke article 50. Given that nobody wants a no-deal and there is no time for a second referendum or.further negotiations, it may be the only solution.
Just an update - especially if trading GBP next week.
There is the possibility of renewed volatility on GBP due to political debates and associated votes to take place in Westminster this upcoming week. The market has been expecting at least an extension of Brexit date and has been trading UK data (earnings index) instead of Brexit this past week, any political upheaval could cause disruption to the trend.
On a personal note, which will not be mentioned again, the effect of Brexit and the apparent no deal looming will have major negative effects on my business, my city, my community and my family.
I live and do business on the NI land border, in our community and businesses Euros and Gbp’s circulate together freely - for this reason we need to become familiar with market activity and likely exchange rate direction.
The two economies and communities are very closely intertwined and even the thought of a hard border between the two gives me goose pimples.
A majority in NI voted to remain within the EU likely based on these reasons but alas there was one political party that opted for leave - the DUP - and by chance their 10 mp’s hold the balance of power in Westminster - the best we could hope for is that the invisible border would stay.
The UK PM likewise opted for such a scenario in Dec 2017 when she was ready to sign an agreement keeping NI in alignment with EU regulations - the DUP said NO and the Mrs May had to return without signing.
To date the EU 27 have also insisted on a seamless border and so the ‘backstop’ was born.
It’s all a long story, well told by the US NBC, the short video sums up best for local people.
I like the sound of that - fingers crossed anyway, this week has been far too smooth for my liking in GBP.USD
ps. I hope the final outcome works in your favour for your business and family, whatever the outcome will be - most likely an extension in my view; which means very little from a decision and preparation point of view.
Aha Jezz you missed my heads up on the thread about interest rates - this week was sitting out for a rise on cable - Brexit baloney on the back burner and Tuesday morning for the earnings index - perfect mix, must post a chart for learners of FA in later times.
Anyways, posted the NBC above, then today Bloomberg went one better and did this interview. Mostly UK guys would have zero interest but our US cousins do want to know…
Underlines what my post was all about…hmmm… seems BP is well read…
- David Davis for preference - Boris - as second choice (assuming Nigel Farage is a non-starter 
)
