Then again, I am not unconvinced by the argument that “We have already left” and note Andrea Leadsom’s resignation letter gave hints of doubs about the legality of some of May’s actions !
Aha - this is why I dislike politicians - right and wrong is not great at vote catching whereas Left and Right is a different ball game.
Here in NI politics is dictated by orange/green or unionist/nationalist or loyalist/republican.
These things politicians are good at because there are votes to be harvested, we have a party called ‘Alliance’ - they are none of these and my hope is that they do well in the EU elections.
Now it’s the weekend, just been to Tesco and unbelievably spotted “Fecking Irish Vodka” and “Fecking Irish Gin” - I kid you not - we know what’s important 
Edit: found it online - thing is you have to be over 18 to view:
Weekend almost to a close - time to think about the week ahead.
First thing is that it is a month end week - I’ve mentioned before that there are bills to be paid and exchanges to be made.
Note on Friday there was a push up beyond the line - it was on no new news and on a Friday - just a fake out, of more interest was where the close settled.
Cable is still looking positive on a chart, but nothing has changed in the FA arena so why would I buy?.
Anyways, on the UK political front there are quite a number of contenders for PM, the market will only take notice when it gets down to two, the suspicion is that there may be a no-deal and pro-deal candidate, that would make trading more interesting - trying to read the sentiment of conservative membership.
There is a new line on the chart - it’s painted red in deference to the PM’s red lines - it too has history but it’s fading (Mid Mar 2017)
- the older you get the less your strength I suppose.
OK - that was 2 hours ago and Asian has opened and the market is thin.
Now here is that same red line (I know it’s a little pink but maybe that’s the feminine part of me 
)
This is the thing about Stops - be aware of the levels and of liquidity.
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On post 239 the inverted H&S was worth 50 odd pips with a tiny stop - but note that they are undone today in the light market.
Also note the reversal on GBP/USD is at a non specific TA level - it was the time of the reversal today that was important:
There was no change in the FA and it took one week for resistance to become support.
The decisive breakthrough was last day of the month.
That was 3 weeks ago when price was averaging around the 87.50 level.
Then i mentioned a couple of weeks ago;
Well the first week of the new month has just finished and the FA remains unchanged so guess what has happened price:
And since it’s the weekend and wind-down time thought I’d post this little piece of good news.
Some time ago i mentioned in a reply to @Clint that we Irish are not really into pomp and ceremony.
Pres Trump has just left our country, I know he enjoyed this wee piece of ceremony that may not make the TV news stateside:
:
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That post was May 22nd, then look at the chart up above for this weekend.
Trading only one instrument can become almost boring, same old, same old.
Just at the close price reacted to the DT - Friday evening etc.
But the same question as posed back those weeks - has the FA changed?
Just decided to post a little thought about risk and the market thinking.
There are many suggestions of how to get a handle on risk sentiment - perhaps one of the best is the US2000 - buy small caps because therein lies the next Microsoft etc.
Anyways - these are all d1 and the past 5 weeks:
First up is the Russell 2000 as mentioned.
Clear trend, risk is off, get rid of the small caps - except for the reversal for the first week of this month.
So what about the bond market - you could’nt get more safe than a US Bond:
Hmmm… the reversal in the past week is not so clear, but what has all this to do with FX, where are the pips?
The market in more recent times translates risk to USD/JPY?:
Yep - the market view is that the Japanese are by nature savers and investors - in times of risk off they sell those investments and repatriate to Yen - thus applying selling pressure to USD.
Hmmm… total baloney - XAU/USD is the no.1 risk indicator - that’s always what we have been told, and not much sign of buying in the past month:
Edit: the yellow line is back a couple of years.
Anyways to finish up, and it does have an impact on Eur/Gbp in the past week, here is the complete chart on Xau/Usd :
The answer is clear and confirmed by today’s numbers. The UK govt has yet to wake up but at least the BOE are more aware.
The latest DT now also history.
That was May 19th - the 90 level was always the target for a no change FA situation, that level finally reached this week.
On the same day that the 90 level was reached (July 9th) cable made it’s low of this year.
Hence I mentioned in that same post:
Anyways - all left side stuff, what now on the right side of the chart?
The FA is stuck in that there are only two possible outcomes for a new UK PM. Boris Johnson is the likely winner and is seen by the market as the more probable to exit the EU on WTO terms - if so then negative GBP.
Hunt is seen as more likely to listen to business and should he win then GBP positive.
So a period of consolidation on GBP until the outcome becomes clear.
Final post in this thread:
The result of the PM election will be announced in a week’s time - if the numbers already mean that Hunt cannot overtake Johnson then it could be sooner.
The fact that there has been no such announcement to date could suggest that a number of voters have been holding back (there was a report last week that Johnson had already clinched it).
If it is the case of holding back then this will help Hunt’s chances because Johnson has not run an especially good campaign.
I see on another thread a suggestion to sell Eur/Gbp based on TA - given the importance and possible impact on GBP taking up a TA position right now could be risky.
Take care y’all
One quick post if learning FA - the above quoted post was one month ago - so a simple short re the ‘likely’ election of Boris Johnson - worth over 500 pips.
Looking at the right side of the chart - is there a likely change up ahead?
Perhaps the best analysis I have heard in a long time comes from Jonathan Powell, British diplomat and experienced negotiator - it’s 6 mins long - worth a listen to help understand: