60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

ah I see, perhaps a misunderstanding in my termonoligy. When I say it was way to smooth I mean to suggest that it was text book entries, of a better word. I’m all for these types of weeks, but I prefer the markets to whip around a little, I get my money’s worth of emotions :wink:

The saga of the Brexit negotiations appear to be drawing to a close in the incoming week.

There is still no agreement despite the technical talks over this weekend, the signs are that there is no breakthrough despite some optimism late last week.

Some guys are commentating that the fact that talks are continuing over the weekend is positive but the reality is that the EU chief negotiator is not present, not even in Brussels.

History in the making :slight_smile:

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Last comment was 9 weeks ago - nothing much has changed since.

There were hopes of a comprise between the two main parties but it became clear that this would be a difficult task from the beginning of last week - there were some negative comments by the shadow chancellor over the preceding weekend.

Eur/Gbp managed to reach down to 85.00 but last week’s monday turned it around.

The outlook? - general GBP weakness as political uncertainty in UK will gather pace.

Well not much except our “Democratically Elected” Government Reneging on their Manifesto Commitments and their promises around the Referendum and Reneging On Theresa Mays Absolute promise to "Leave on March 29 = With or without a deal ! "

so no “Not much” except a Complete crisis of DEMOCRACY ! and the Formation of a completely new Political Party which is Now polling more votes in teh 5 weeks it has existed than the two “Main Parties” Put together. Not Much except the Conservatives now polling 9% ! - Single figures - 5TH Behind the “Greens” solely because of May’s disgraceful actions and total lack of integrity in this matter !

The Conservatives have NEVER since their formation “polled” in single figures!

Yes indeed - “History” will not treat Theresa May kindly - Unlike her predecessor Maggie Thatcher - but then maybe TM could be a product of “Affirmative action” ? - certainly the way the path to the premiership “cleared itself to let her through” it seems that might have been the case ?

Extraordinary, I think we need to sell the Pound then in light of the fact that Brexit won’t occur and Britain will remain in EU after second submission

You are correct that Gbp is a Brexit play, the market is taking little notice of numbers but reacting to the nuances of UK politics.

Eur/Gbp is the cross most affected by Brexit so good idea to look at the levels there to gauge what may happen to GBP in general up ahead.

E.g. look at the daily Eur/Gbp - 85.00 has held since Mid March (hence the not much change remark) - now if the market were to think that the Brexit conundrum is going to be resolved to the benefit of the UK then that level will give, if not then around 90.00 - this is a good way to figure how the market is thinking.

(btw) see the relevance of 87.20 and how it was support when confirmation at the end of past week of no agreement between Lab and Con.

Here is another little thought - sometimes a learner will encounter FA vs TA, the notion that today’s algo drlven market can be divided.

Look again at the above daily - 8720 support, then later resistance - nothing special.

Zoom in on Friday hr1. Friday morning final confirmation that the talks were dead - so resistance became support:

Edit: but I never trade crosses - so check Gbp/Usd Friday’s timing and prices.

Extraordinary, I think we need to sell the Pound then in light of the fact that Brexit won’t occur and Britain will remain in EU after second choice

Sorif and Adam - likely the same - the internet is full of weird and wonderful people :slight_smile:

History has taught me much, this evening I watched the Cuban Missile Crisis and how close it came to WW3.

Earlier today I drove past a monument located at an ambush site in County Cork.

There was division back then in Ireland, there was an agreement (treaty) with the British, some agreed to it’s signing, others disagreed.

The argument became violent and led to civil war.

This is why I still have hope that the UK will reconcile the Brexit argument, as Churchill said 'better to jaw jaw than to war war.

Michael Collins Death - Béal na Bláth, County Cork

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double post :wink:

we went to Cuba a few years ago - went round Che Guevara’s mausoleum - The tour guide was a lecturer in Russian at the University before Russia left.

Amazingly Schitzophrenic place - gave you a “Passport stamp” on a piece of paper in case you ever wanted to go to USA !!

Saw an aeroplane shot down in the “Bay of Pigs” invasion.

But there was no “Jaw-Jaw” in the Cuban crisis - I do remember being at school, not knowing for certain whether I would see my parents again.

The fact is that sometimes we have to address the small things - or else big things develop.

Many of us are only just waking up to see what the EU Project has been intending to be as our future ever since Heath signed us in WITHOUT telling us of the true intention.

You seem to have some acedemic connections in the “Arts” ? whereas I am STEM - so my guess is that you already knew that the “Project’s” intentions were from your “history” learning. Also @pipmehappy seems to be aware of it’s Power Grabbing agenda - whereas @tommor - even now refuses to believe that our “House of Commons” and “Huse of Lords” could possibly betray the trust of the people by selling us out !

30 pieces of silver indeed !

Hear what Professor Bogdanor has to say about the “Stealth method” of the EU trying to take us all over without actually telling us !

Is it any surprise then that those of us who ARE waking up are mightily Pissed off about it ?

That goes for All of our European Brethren (and Sistren) who are just now finding out ! !

Nah - just an old guy who left school with some ‘O’ levels but had big ideas that I could teach myself everything.

Still have the same ideas and still learning.

I did meet a person some years ago that I instinctively understood knew everything that there is to know, gave me a simple lesson that helped a great deal, likewise not an academic.

Anyways, you are right, it’s the little things in life that makes us great.

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So the England already leaved EU or not really ? I still see it something like that it’s in EU still. For sure GBP was separate currency very long time ago. I do understand that EU in a very big crisis really here. So let’s wait out a bit for that. I am eager to see what is next.

The above post on Sunday evening included a chart.

Today there was increased volatility due to a well signaled speech by the UK PM - most people knew beforehand the likely content.

Many learners say that it is impossible to trade such ‘news’ - but look again at that chart with it’s yellow line - then check that same line today when the PM was speaking:

And 2 hours later a further 20 pips - back to where it began - predictable?

eur_gbp_hr1

Now it’s necessary to go to daily to get a handle on Eur/Gbp - the question is will a DT form first but be short-lived - depends on the FA.

There is no news to suggest a change up ahead at least until the early part of the new month.

Well the DT did form, the next part of the question remains.

Edit: here’s what the DT now looks like on hr1

eur_gbp_hr1

Not only a Double Top but a Triple Top - is this ‘resistance’, a TA sell signal?

Maybe with TA but the fundamentals are unchanged, imo price will break through that yellow line unless there is a change in FA.

eur_gbp_hr1

So technically cable (Gbp_Usd) is showing signs of buying - hr1 last 3 days an inverted H&S?

Gbp_Usd_Hr1