The ‘no deal scenario’ is gathering momentum and is no longer viewed as a negotiating tool, chances are increasing weekly.
This Thurs UK will publish first segment of advice for business on what will change in no deal - e.g. taxes, etc - also what extra paperwork needed for EU trade (at present very little paperwork, not regarded as import/exports.)
Also UK will likely announce that EU citizens now in UK will retain present rights even though no such announcement from EU on UK citizens.
There could be talk of taking the moral high ground - reality is pressure from business to keep workforce.
Difficult to gauge market reaction as this leak is long since out.
Now the talk is of agreement rather than confrontation. The market will always buy agreement, but it’s still only talk so price is back to the beginning.
Lots of buyers exited midweek knowing that intensive talks were taking place today and the soundbites were positive, i.e. there was no name calling etc.
Anyways, Pres Trump heading over to this neck of woods in Nov so there you go, he is very welcome
Edit: the Brexit trade is Eur/Gbp so when I speak of buyers I mean that cross.
If trading GBP this week there will be some headlines later in the week re Salzburg.
There is a setup forming on Eur/Gbp - against most my previous posts - it’s GBP positive.
Many analysts have written off the UK PM as a lame duck, she’s neither, she made one mistake and has played a blinder ever since.
Salzburg will be the next stage, there will be GBP positive sound bites from the EU 27 and Chequers proposal will not be written off.
One of the leading anti EU members of government threw in the towel today when he said “a future prime minister could always choose to alter the relationship between Britain and the European Union.” (Michael Gove).
Likely the market will perceive this as a divergence from the stance taken by other anti EU MP’s who remain anti Chequers.
The EU 27 will seek to shape the Chequers proposal but very unlikely to reject it.
[Well actually Radio 4 reported that he said "Chequers will do - for now ! " - without further amplification. ]
It was Gove whose despicable doublecross of ‘Boris’ was the spanner in the works. which allowed a “Bremainer” to become the pm in charge of ‘Brexit’ in the first place !
I am more than a little surprised that anyone listens to that particular ‘shape-shifter’ at all !
[Edit - Well actually - I suspect most don’t give him any credibility at all unless they are the ‘straw - clutchers’ desperate to overturn the will of the people ! ]
My post at the start of this week - all went according to script, GBP even had a gain of 200 pips on USD by yesterday.
Old saying - ttbp (take the bloody profits) - the vibes were very negative Wed evening (probably helped GBP upwards Thurs, you have to take price up if you wish to sell it).
Bottom line is that cable has given back the 200 pips - and Eur/Gbp, the Brexit play, reflects the negativity.
The three paragraphs quoted above, from your first post in this thread, came to mind when I recently read THIS SPEECH by Mojmír Hampl from the Czech National Bank, given in Copenhagen in September at a conference titled “Are we on the verge of a new Euro Crisis?”.
Here’s an excerpt:
The euro and political union
A stateless monetary union is inherently unstable. A currency is usually a consequence, not a cause, of the establishment of a state. In Europe, however, we began to build the “currency house” from the roof down, and then in 2008 everyone was very surprised at how the tiles flew off when the first wind appeared. Is there a prospect of a political union - a single European state - in the pipeline? Even if there is, do we want to be part of it? If the question is no, which would seem to be the case, thoughts of introducing the euro in the Czech Republic should, for that reason alone, be left on the back burner.
[quote=“Amazon Reviewer,” ] The only possible explanation of the stupidity of Britain’s governments of both Conservative and Labour is they were so deludedy wrong it became impossible for them to ever confess their guilt.[/quote]
Sadly I brought it back unopened - the other two being thoroughly read, but this one I hardly dare open ! - because it actually means so much for my children and grandchildren and I as an individual being so powerless to promote the “exit” that in some ways, I really don’t want to know the full horror of the consequences of being stuck in the “EU” - fortunately we in the UK are Not stuck with the “Euro” as yet.
I’d disagree with his analysis on Bulgaria - the introduction of new entry criteria was a direct result of the Greece debacle of recent years, there is zero intention of ‘humiliation’ (often a term used by politicians more so than by bankers).
The conference title was almost identical to a CNN article of the previous month.
The largest ‘threat’ to the euro in their view was Spain and Italy, they saw the changes in the political map of those countries likely to cause some difficulties for the Euro - politics will most likely play a huge part in the near term, economics over the longer term.
For Ireland economics has played a larger role over the last few years post 2008, politicians played a role by facilitating the economics. Would the outcome have been as successful if Ireland had not been part of the EZ, I suppose we’ll never know.
Hi Falstaff,
You are right in that it is the younger generation that will most feel the effects of decisions being made and yet to be made in the Brexit debate.
I do have one prayer in all of this - that the decision makers will put that generation to the forefront of their minds.
There is much arguing and shouting by politicians this weekend and likely will intensify over the coming days and weeks, while that is happening I will intensify my prayer.
UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab is making an unplanned visit to Brussels this pm to meet with Barnier etc. Talks are due to start in less than an hour’s time.
If you have opportunity to set or adjust (or cancel) GBP and EUR orders and stops, don’t delay. There is no timetable for what’s happening right now but let’s imagine Raab flies home with some sort of agreement - it could be announced as soon as tonight.
Likely a bad link, it’s actually an old story, there was a ‘leak’ yesterday.
Robbins is the negotiator, Raab is the stamp.
The latest is that the 27 ambassadors have been summoned - only possible purpose is to have earliest sight of draft.
Rumour is that the draft is almost over the line, the difficulty surrounding the geographical area nearest to here (where I live, work and do business) seemingly remains unresolved.
