60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

That’s an "Interesting " way of putting the “facts”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44719576

Two women, each with a very tenuous grip on “power” meeting to decide what the British Cabinet were to be “fed” (pun intended ) !

Note also the bbc typical Propaganda intended to manipulate the minds of teh readers at paragraph 5 - All irrelevant to the article and pure persuance of the objectives of “project fear”

Totally disgraceful that our own supposed PM went to ask Merkel for instructions before Telling the Cabinet how they must vote !

Somebody somewhere is pulling that May womans strings !

The Treasury is being blamed for that, but I’m not so sure.

There is a guy on the cabinet who is on the Brexit side of the debate (what media now like to call brexiter), his approach has changed in recent times.

This guy knows his business, I’d give him 10 out of 10 - clue.

Click on him for bio.

https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Well that scenario was good for 2 days, so much for the “collective”, never had much time for that word anyhow.

Still applies, be careful, TA will not be much help although a red line was hit today and held Eur/Gbp - 89.00

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To whom do you refer ? I can’t mindread (reliably yet ! :wink: )

That was then, now he is 9th on the list (was 10th) - ‘knows his business’ i.e. Secretary for Business.

Known as a hard worker.

I’m not saying that he pulling anybody’s strings, but just maybe his input is business positive - doing his job.
https://www.gov.uk/government/people/greg-clark

Pres Trump will visit the EU, UK and Russia.

He tweeted re the ‘turmoil’ in the UK, he is wrong - there is merely a little political jostling going on, the thinking is on the future - all will settle down shortly.

Some hard work up ahead but now a team leader that may well be prepared to put in necessary graft.

One who has devoted many hours that goes unnoticed by the press is Mr Ollie Robbins, the PM’s spad on EU.

The focus now switches to Brussels, they await the detail of the white paper (I think about 20 pages) - they have received a summary (about 3 pages) the release of which has sparked the recent resignations.

The initial comments from the 27 have been encouraging, there seems to be a possibility of proper detailed negotiations based on this eagerly awaited paper.

More to follow…I sense a light at the end of a long tunnel, let’s hope so.

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Of course they are = AFTER Angela Merkel TOLD that MAY woman what to write ! :sleeping:

“…Greg was Director of Policy for the Conservative Party from March 2001 for 3 successive leaders - William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard -…”

How’s that for a success story then ? - Obviously a man of perception and sound judgement ! (Irony - just in case you thought I meant it )

“…He was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change in October 2008, having previously been Shadow Minister for Charities, Social Enterprises and Volunteering…”

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The light has dimmed somewhat, EU are sounding pessimistic on the UK proposals and have instructed the 27 governments to prepare for a no deal Brexit with the UK trading under WTO rules.

Some people suggest that this is a negotiating ploy, this is unlikely, it’s more a case of preparing for the reality.

A prominent UK MP and leader of a group of pro Brexit MP’s, Jacob Rees Morgan, said today :

“I think we are heading to WTO and I think WTO is nothing to be frightened of.”

He too is echoing a realism that is beginning to dawn on all the players.

I’d say that most businesses are not in the least frightened of WTO, having said that the WTO will be a very changed body when Pres Trump has completed his first term. His ambassador, Denis Shea, stated in May past:

"The United States is not content to be complacent about this institution,”

He further commented:

“And the leadership that the United States will bring to the WTO in the coming months and years will consequently involve a good deal of straight talk and a willingness to be disruptive, where necessary, in the interest of contributing to a stronger, more effective, and more politically sustainable organisation.”

Part of the US strategy is to veto all new appointments to the Appellate Body, it’s supposed to have 7 Judges, by this Sept it will have 3 - the minimum number that causes it’s findings in any dispute to be enforceable. Often a Judge will have to recuse, if so then no case to answer, back to the old way - the stronger wins.

Edit: Sources LBC and Reuters

Hmmm… 2 weeks later and the press know him now:

He’s the one on the right and smiling: :slight_smile:

Theresa May takes personal charge of Brexit talks - BBC News

How does Brexit fears affects your bread? Any direct influence for example worsening relations with EU customers?

The opposite effect, Eur/Gbp trend has meant an increase in disposals to EU (technically they are not ‘exports’ thus minimal paperwork).

The key is to anticipate the trend and position accordingly, always easy in hindsight.

The ‘fear’ element is better described as ‘uncertainty’ which reduces investment, investment and growth go hand in hand, so we wait.

As in everything there is opportunity - for example if I were to google “the world’s largest ro ro ferry”.

Yeah exports should have really roared in UK I guess because of devalued Pound. Probably unintended consequences from Brexit like weak Pound is surprisingly beneficial for UK firms

Don’t “diss” our MOGGY !" :sweat_smile:

Aha - I made a bet that no one would notice, mind you I figured if anyone would then it would surely be your good self.

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Swings and roundabouts, the cost of petrol (gas) is currently at the same levels as May 2014 yet WTI was hovering above $100 per barrel back then.

We had the biggest rise this century in fuel costs in May past - the oil companies blamed the fall in GBP.

Likely we’ll see more rises in the coming winter - then they’ll blame rising demand.

The demand on gasoline is too inelastic to prices so we observe the gasoline greed. Crude prices also can stay low, but if refineries experience problems with production of gasoline (like outages of some of them) or they anticipate worsening economic conditions they may want to create cushion in terms of higher margins now and lower tomorrow.

Apparently it will cost the EU a lot to dump the uk out “without a deal” - but of course we all know that is not going to happen.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/999320/brexit-news-eu-no-deal-brexit-trade-liam-fox-jacob-rees-mogg

It can’t be easy for them - knowing that they will be economic losers if we leave without a “deal”, but at the same time desperately trying to convince other potential leavers that "Britain will be punished " ! :laughing:

Lol, the story quotes UK International Trade Secretary.

This is the same Liam Fox who said on BBC Radio 4 just 12 months ago:

“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history."

Some commentators are currently attributing this weeks rise on Eur/Gbp to Mr Fox’s changed comments - not really correct, price was headed up in any case.

The PM had a face to face with Monsieur Macron on Friday, only two comments on the outcome, the official one “good meeting” and Mr Fox.

Perhaps the most annoying thing about these protracted negotiations - the double speak - from both sides.

I’d say if two business people sat face to face all would be sorted in days, then there would only be winners.

Instead there is ‘double speak’, as witnessed above re the Trade Secretary, here is another from the EU side.

We cannot allow the separation of services and goods as outlined in Chequers.

Already happens on a daily basis - try taking out insurance with a French insurance company not domiciled in UK, or if in business try offering Hire Purchase to a German consumer - not allowed.

Buy goods from France or sell goods to Germany - no problem.

Here’s another from UK side:

We cannot allow there to be customs checks between mainland Britain and NI.

Try taking farm animals from GB to NI without a license - (referred to by the Government as an import license.) - not allowed.(customs check at port of entry, Larne)