Hello GP and Emerald…
My update: I am now trading by themes,
and my main three themes are:
Kiwi fall;
Pound fall;
Euro fall.
I am exposed to NZD shorts on one account
and EUR shorts on the other, with a long on
EUR/GBP to short the Pound…
I intend to hold these trades for a long time…
End of update… 
Right picture for the 95%, Apply the 3ms consistantly and it’s more like Poker or Black Jack, that’s were the 5% are
Someone suggested starting an Elliott wave thread. I searched the forum for EW and drew a one post were it got mentioned. I have been working desperately to add this to my trading and have come some way with using it. It works great with Fibonacci but detecting the waves and corrections and labeling them accurately takes time. I have avoided trading it so far but today I put together a trade using EWP that I will share here I am already in the trade and my stop has rolled to break even.
I will try and run through the logic.
FxPro GBPUSD h1 Crbwn | cTrader
First off EWP dictates price moves in 5 waves based on herd mentality and ends in 3 wave corrections. Wave 1 and 3 are impulse waves and 4 and 5 are corrective waves.
Second wave 2 can never overlap wave 1 and wave 4 cannot come below the top of wave 1.
Third, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave and the impulse waves must comprise of 5 small internal waves and corrective waves must contain 3 smaller waves.
That being said…The idea is to buy on corrective dips. So I placed a buy order on GBP at what could be the start of a 3rd Wave or potentially a complex correction, price has to get over the 50% point and that will make 1.6892 the likely retrace point which will indicate a reflex point is forming in which case the downward trend may continue (I will get out of my position and bank some pips or break even) if it closes above 1.6892 then the target will be 1.6921 (I add 40k to this position) a normal third wave 100% of wave 1. Wave 4 will likely retrace at 38.2% of wave 3 or 50% or 61.8%.
It is said no one can stay the course of a 5 wave but there are some…
This is the cycle. So we shall see…
Great Emerald…
Read pages 146 to 156 of this document:
http://gann.su/book/eng/Gilmore,%20Bryce%20-%20Geometry%20of%20Markets.pdf
Yes! Elliott wave basically explained. I took a lot of my tuition from Ramki Ramskaran who is a genius with EWP.
I want to be able to combine this with volume and get rid of support and resistance lines and rely solely on EWP and volume. This will the pinnacle of my trading. If I can do this I can hold trades longer and not worry about minor support and resistance retraces.
I am close but I still need to master the ABC corrections and learn to spot complex third wave but Fib is a great help. Last year practicing with it gave me 32% annual return trading the daily. I moved away this year after adjusting my risk profile to tighter risk and moving to the hourly but I may start considering the application again to shorter time frames.
Emerald, that is wonderful…
I like the line from the Gilmore book that I linked further up this page, found on page 142 of the document:
He was talking here about the Gann/Fibonacci etc. (mathematical) levels of 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100%,
saying that these are levels that give ‘fast profits’… I think he knew what he was doing… Wait, he is not
dead yet 
I’m long on USDCAD in a pending order in an Accumulation phase. Green is Entry, Red is Stop Loss, Gold are profit targets. Trade was planned on 30 minute time frame with an alert 15 pips before 1st profit target. I do this because I want to see where if original analysis is still good.
That is interesting GP. I am long on the Euro decided to start looking briefly at Elliott Wave. So took a trade on EWP. Yesterday turned out fine did 30 pips on the up move on GBP/USD.
Chart below is in a bar chart, easier to demo EWP this way. I have done a green line where I believe the A wave will start and bought at 1.3355. I believe we have seen the completion of a 5th wave determined by the 5 sub waves inside. However judging from the length of 3rd wave which has already extended it may mean the 5th wave will go further and hasn’t really finished but the volume pouring in is probably an indication that the sell off is weakening.
The hour chart gives you a closer look.
Interesting quote… Quite right, the discipline to manage a trade is what you gain with EWP otherwise you will get out of the market quickly and be forced to place another trade. Imagine you caught a 1st wave and held till a 3rd wave completed and did that just twice correctly that will be on average 600 pips, if you were adding to your winners then even more. Unfortunately not many new traders have the gall to hold a position.
That includes myself sometimes
Once again I see my old age is showing as I didn’t post the chart.
Doesn’t matter
I cancelled the trade before execution, seems the Loonie has it’s own ideas today.
Of course I wish you Good Luck, I’m looking at your charts as well as your EW logic and it seems to me that you do a lot of extra work to come up with the pretty much same information by VSA alone. I did a fib reading as well and basically came up the same entry as you entering on the 61.8 level. If you wanted to be safe you could wait for a bounce at the 61.8 and enter just before or at the 50%.
As far as using EW and Volume so you don’t have to use Support and resistance, I think you could use a ZZ_orlova indicator with volume and do the same thing almost at a glance. That’s my opinion anyway, as I said I wish you nothing but luck with this and I will be interested to see how it works out for you.
Gp
Of course I wish you Good Luck, I’m looking at your charts as well as your EW logic and it seems to me that you do a lot of extra work to come up with the pretty much same information by VSA alone.
I agree with you.
I started EWP to gain the discipline to hold the trade through multiple resistance areas. My problem still is closing a trade that may well be manipulated past a resistance level based on Elliott’s theory. This happens a lot. If I can do this I can eliminate the S&R that I have to adjust constantly.
I guess to hold a trade requires confidence and EWP does inspire that, so if I believe a 3rd wave is forming I will hold the trade till I see the start of a 4th wave correction all the time still keep my principle on volume in tact but Fib will handle all my S&R needs.
Hello GP and Emerald…
Good luck with all the trades…
Tomorrow will be interesting for EUR and GBP outlook…
I have been trying to define what a cycle is, in currencies, and it is much less of a definable beast than, say,
in stocks/equities… I have been trying squaring and triangulation, with mixed results, on GBP/USD…
The basic question is this: if we were given, say, data for a currency pair for the last forty years, where would
we place the cycle periods? Every year? Every two, three, five, seven, etc.? Where would you start…from the
middle of the time-span, or from the beginning, or even the end?
My head is spinning… I tried a few things but in the end I come back to Support/Resistance, or, rather,
Demand/Supply zones, and volume levels (if you have access to volume data when trading).
For example, looking at GBP/USD data over the last ten years, or over the last fifty, still shows to me that
the 1.7000 level is a very significant one… Everything else beside that pales into insignificance if we know
that that level has been a crucial battlefield for huge swings either side of it…
No matter what technique you use to guide you forward, whether you are a Fib champion or an RSI specialist,
or even a Moving Average crosser or a VPA analyst, adding cycles does not necessarily tell you the future, nor,
in the case of GBP/USD, tell you on which side of said 1.7000 we will be in, say, twelve months…
While I had a stab at creating cyclic pictures for
EUR/USD (301 Moved Permanently) and
EUR/GBP (EUR/GBP Cycle Window shows upward mobility | Forex Crunch) but I am not convinced
that I can just ‘buy/sell and hold’ for the next five years, for example… How can one be so certain of such
projections into ether, when even the major financial institutions have to revise their forecasts several times
a year, due to their data not matching reality on more occasions than one dares to remember?
I am not sure about cycles… Maybe this super-long trading is not for me… Maybe I am more of a day trader…
But I am going back to work in a couple of weeks and from then on it will be game over for that kind of trading…
So the research into some kind of ‘perfect’ compromise between trading and a day job continues…
I think that I will go back to my ‘round-number’ levels approach, which has been serving me reasonably well of late…
E.g. for the Cable, these would be 1.7000, 1.6950, 1.6900, 1.6850, 1.6800, and so forward… When price crosses
one of these levels, does it come straight back up, or does it clear the level? How often does this happen? I would
have to do a statistical count (e.g. on a Day time-frame) of how many times it pushes just below/above a significant
‘round-number’ level only to return to whichever side of the level it was on before attempting to pierce below/above it…
Then I would have to count the number of times when it did actually go past said level(s) and turn them from Support
to Resistance, or viceversa…
Maybe this will give me more of a method…
Good luck to you, people!
Happy trading.
sounds like you’ve been dabbling a bit in Gann?
if you are looking at PRICE swings, from what i understand “astrolonomy” [combination of astology + astrology] is needed for the timing of cycles and without applying it correctly it doesn’t work. i do not know how to apply it correctly although wheelsinthesky appears to offer that info for a price. i dabbled in the square of 9 and price/time relationships for a few months, and a while back for a period it seemed to work really well on the EURGBP [and i was not using astology/astronomy with it] but now i cant get it to work, but for a period of a few months using high/low swing dates very accurately predicted the day of the next swing.
gann is hard tbh. i might get back into it at some point. but i’ve searched hard and low and there are very few people out there with any real proficiency in it,
wheelsinthesky looks like they might know what they are doing, but then again you’d have to pay to find out.
as for the time cycles. here’s an example: the great depression was in 1929.
90 is the angle which is most significant [gann]
you would go forward in multiples of 90 and look at those years and see if there were recessions or similar on those years. eg 1929 + 45 =1974[45 is half of 90], and what do you know, in 1974 there was a recession.
now the worrying thing is that 1929 + 90 = [B]2019[/B]
so there should be a major depression around this time. it’s hard to imagine now as everyone is so doing well or recovering now…but according the laws of gann **** is due to hit the fan SOON.
Thank you Pip and defiance. This echoes the idea that some players are in the game for years rather than hours or weeks. It is how the system stays in place. Imagine of all traders had a daily view? One day the pair will rise uncontrollably without another time frame to counter.
I think Black Wednesday is evidence that if all traders move to one time frame it is game over.
I would consider a cycle beyond no more than the weekly time frame. If you going to count the waves you soon no where you are. I have enough liquidity to play in the daily beyond that I will be in danger of blowing my funds.
As a trader I have an open mind to strategy as long as it increases my return. I ditched indicators after a whole year of an overall loss. Then moved to volume and price action, my first year gain and it was some gain. Then I moved to Fib and EWP better gain. Then I had a sabbatical, returned with volume and then started adding fundamentals and relational analysis (bonds). Where I am now…
I want to bring in EWP again move up to h4 and D1 for the big picture and keep volume. EWP uses fib to a higher degree. This is what I am looking at till year end. So less trades, longer holding, and risk is unchanged.
Emeraldorc and Defiance,
thank you both for the great posts… once again, the quality of this thread is second to none 
I have just compiled stats, going through every candle on the Daily, for GBP/USD, between 1996 and 1997,
with the intention of continuing all the way to 2014, looking at how the level 1.6800 has offered
resistance or support… I highlighted all the single or groups of candles whose open, low, high or close
is at or within 25 pips of this price level (I will record whichever figure is closest to the level)
… I will then go to each one and record the level…
After this is done, I will draw statistics to see how many trading days (= daily candles) there are within
the given chart data (1993 to 2014) and the number of instances (in percentage) where this particular
level was hit and acted as support/resistance…
After this, I will do the same for 1,6900, then 1,7000, then 1,7100… and also the other way,
that is 1,6700, 1,6600, etc.
It seems like a good idea… The more a level is hit and rebounds, historically, the more significant it is…
Just looking at it visually would not satisfy me, so I am trying to come up with a percentile figure that
gives an indication of that level’s recurrence and strength…
It will take a long time, but it may be worth it… Then, updating it will be fairly straightforward…
This could be the start of me specialising in one pair, as well as keeping my eye out on general
themes (e.g. the Pound, the Euro, the Kiwi Dollar), getting to know its Major price levels (= round
numbers) inside out…
Step Two, eventually, will be to print off charts from GBP/USD and mark on them major
events (=fundamentals) in pen/pencil, to see how levels reacted/resisted/held/gave way when
major news/data hit either currency in the pair…
How does this sound?
It sounds like a lot of work, but I really need to ‘tidy up’ my trading…
Cheers.
That will be amazing pip. That is some great research work. I would love to see, this is what technical analysis is all about comparing the raw data.
Wow, that is going to take some time 
- but I realise how useful it could be - good luck
Thank you Emeraldorc and Nibbles… Yes, but fortunately I am on holiday from work, so I can find the time…
FxPro EURUSD h4 84bwn | cTrader Breakeven trade
FxPro GBPUSD h4 k4bwn | cTrader Break even trade
FxPro GBPUSD h4 f4bwn | cTrader Loss
FxPro EURUSD h4 nLbwn | cTrader Break even trade
FxPro GBPJPY h1 yLbwn | cTrader Loss
This sums up my trading week, to be fair I am have been experimenting a great deal with some new ideas that combined with the absence of luck not a great week. Good news is I have kept position sizing small.
Hope you guys had better. :8: