Well done, Professor Emerald!!!
Not sure about the well done bitā¦ 
I am back to a busy work week next week (my break is over)so will do a lot more on the 4h and D1 chart canāt find the strength to switch off the screen.
I have been looking at GBP fundamentals. What is interesting is that there is a desperate USD sentiment, I think a few months back I was saying to Forexunlimited that USD always comes back strong in a disguised fashion so all the other currency appear to be weak so when it collapses again it hides its own weakness.
I think GBP is about to bounce back and here is whyā¦
On the fundamental side GDP has been good and Housing is good, manufacturing has had blips but nothing new for the UK and Services came in good this week. So why id GDP falling? My guess is the trouble in the Middle East means most of those countries are buying USD to protect their own currency and to buy weapons. So all other currencies are being sold in favour of Safe havens. GBP is probably at the moment been dictated by technicals which seem to be screaming rise.
FxPro GBPUSD h4 rSbwn | cTrader
Check out the 4H. See the selling volume at the top pretty high and sent GBP crashing on what looks like an entire 5 wave sequence as illustrated by the Fib level 161.8. IMO we are at the end of cycle of selling. Notice the high volume build up at 1.6805. What do we think happens next? It could may well extend to the 261.8 which corresponds 1.6717 where the next high volume is or could rebound. So I went for the upside.
FxPro GBPUSD D1 QSbwn | cTrader
Now look at the daily chart which it appears to be at the end of a correction of some kind but since the trend line is broken it could signal the end of the prospect of an above 1.7000 this year unless the US starts another war. However appears that the next likely resistance is at the 1.6950 area and we could start seeing some complex congestion phases between 1.6800 and 1.7000.
On that note what do you all think? I love opinions!!! I just tend to trade mine all the time.
Nice philosophy, but we all know youāre open to other peoplesā ideas :32:
Hello Emerald,
as usual, you speak with authority and your knowledge is second to noneā¦
As one who has one foot in Italy and one in the UK,
I am painfully aware that the promised reforms by Renzi should have brought the Italian āPILā (=GDP)
to 0.8%ā¦ which, interestingly, is the 2014 (Q2) GDP for the UKā¦ Not much difference, then, and we
know that even though Britain has not gone to -0.1% like Italy, it is a small differenceā¦
When you and I look at the real situation, which is that GDP is a key figure in raising expectations for
real growth, rather than speculative bubbles, and, therefore, a key driver for any BoE tightening policy
(and interest rate increase), it is astonishing that in the past seventy years, since the cessation of WWII,
the GDP change percentage averages not only a 2% percentage but, more significantly, has seen each
depression bringing GDP deeper into negative territory:
This has made each bust ābustierā following each boom, with inflated credit facilities mismatching real-term
production of goods and generating a mismatch between the countryās real worth and credit expansion.
What worries me is that each depression (yes, they are depressions, not mere ādownturnsā as some like
to sugar-coat them) happens with frightening regularity, and the system is clearly not learning its lessons.
Let me get to the point: in a depression, people, like banks, save capital and do not spendā¦ This
depresses consumption and, therefore, production of goods. Central banks react by lowering the interest
rate for lending, but the people prefer to either keep their money tight (in ISAs, for example), or to
invest in real commodities, like housesā¦ Because the majority of people are following this trend, real
commodities become scarcer, thus hiking their prices as demand outstrips supplyā¦ This is the current
housing overpricing (ābubbleā) explainedā¦
What happens, then, is that if this fragile economy experiences a commodity price bubble, it exposes
itself to a risk of deleveraging, which will make peopleās investments worthless or seriously depreciatedā¦
So the government is stuck: on the one hand, it cannot give into rising real-term wages for public sector
workers, as this would then put inflationary pressure and force the BoEās hand in turnā¦ On the other hand,
the BoE cannot raise interest rates and attract investment into the country (a higher GBP with a higher
rate of return for investors) because the labour force and its Consumer Purchasing Index tell a story
of low purchasing power - higher inflation would raise prices for consumer goods at a time when this
would punish consumer into spending even less.
So, to conclude: while a weaker Pound is good for exports, its inexorable link to a weak GDP means
that it is not likely to strengthen unless the governments of today stop relying on central bank monetary
policies and get on with real, structural reforms of the labour market, e.g. abolishing zero-hour contracts,
exploitation of cheap labour, job uncertainty, high youth unemployment, and the need for food banks(!).
The disparity between the āhaves and have-notsā has never been more acute, and as a weak GDP is a
barometer of real-life living standards and challenges, it would seem perverse to hope for a weaker Pound:
yet it may just be that the advantages of a weaker Sterling may be nothing more than the spelling out of
current ācurrency warsā between central banks, especially in the Fed-BoE-ECB-BoJ quadrangle, each trying
to weigh down its currency in a bid for depreciating the others out of the exports market.
Looking at technicals, it seems that the 1.70 level is a well respected level, and indeed, back in March
I was writing that this pair (GBP/USD) has been in a three-thousand-pip range from the last twenty
years, minus five (2004 - 2009)ā¦ http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/64347-gbpusd-turning-over-4.html
We could indeed see the pair consolidating and heading South again, bouncing to the floor of this range
over the next few yearsā¦
My turn now: what do YOU think?
That has to be the best analysis of Sterling I have heard all year. The data is spot on. Yes the UK has suffered really bad downturns after significant boom periods. I think Gordon Brown thought it was a bright idea to pitch himself on the end of boom and bust only to get busted himself.
The UK does have a habit of dumping money into real assets at the first sign of danger the problem is they donāt put their own cash in, they use the banks. This time the housing boost is generated from foreign investment. I am selling a property in Borough in the past week I have had 3 viewings all cash buyers from India. The rest are speculators trying to flip houses. The housing bubble always goes bust when the mortgage family get hit by interest rate hikes and want to sell into a market that canāt buy because of higher rates,eventually prices collapse and the music starts again only this time we always further down the ladder. I have to agree with you 100% on your analysis on GDP. A weaker GBP is in the interest of the country at present but I canāt see us doing that many exportsā¦ Thatās just Cameronās boyhood dream that will never be realized. There is something of the average Brit that always wants to be German.
On GDP declining, it will go close enough again to test close enough to 1.7000 before making the dive. It is also in the BoEās interest that GBP does not free fall, there is no telling. In the end the bigger move has to correct to 1.4808 were it all started on the 8th of July 2013. I am just looking for what will take us thereā¦
Another housing crisis perhaps?
WHERE IS MY PRINTER>ā¦I WANT TO FRAME WHAT YOU WROTE AND PIN IT TO THE WALLā¦
(If we keep complimenting each other like this it may put other people off) ;p
Fantastic assessmentā¦ respect
Have a great weekend all. Not taking any position on a Friday especially as WW3 looms on the horizon. Would not want to have that conversation with my brokerā¦
Yes Pip, to hell with themā¦ Donāt mind lapping up those compliments. Just hope we are rightā¦
One to watch now is the NOK with air strikes in the Mid East we should see Oil demand increasing. Technicals are saying a correction is due after a re-test of that 6.305 level. Not sure about volume spike that looks like buying but there is no reason for the USD to do a new high on the NOK so I still say sell. 6.123 Target. See what Monday looks likeā¦
Hi guys, my latest analysis. It is time we brought the thread back to discussions about volume. The rest of this year is going to be based on trading on volume exclusively. Apologies to all for the side track.
FxPro USDNOK h4 tsbwn | cTrader
My USD/NOK trade so far. Looking pretty good at this point. Took the opportunity to short GBP/NOK as well.
FxPro GBPNOK h4 Rsbwn | cTrader
I do expect a pull back but the reaction at the 200EMA tells me that this pair could continue lower. The volume earlier seems to be the final resistance from the bulls my guess is a lot of profit taking is happeningā¦
Oh! I found this great site for fundamentals, it is awesomeā¦
TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES
Thatās the right word āAwesomeā Thank you. I changed how I use fundamentals. I donāt trade based on whatās coming up. I trade on the results of whatās already released. Along with VSA takes out most of the guess work. Thanks again, great site
Gp
For now Iām long on GBPUSD 30 minute time frame. Green is the entry, red is stop, gold is 1st profit. The pair is in consolidation so next move should be markup, I donāt normally trade if my stop loss is hit, but on this particular pair today I do have a pending order if my stop loss is taken out. I think overall long, but there could also be a nice little short in there. anyway thatās my storey and Iām sticking to it.
I have been looking at GBP/USD for a long move. The H1
FxPro GBPUSD h1 950wn | cTrader is showing that this down move is nearing the end as you can see from the previous up move. My only doubt is that it looks like the short move will extend to 1.6733 at least. See the volume building as the price starts testing those early session highs and we see a long red candle marked by the white arrows supported by serious transaction volume. Could be a 4th wave dip before a 5th wave. Labeled here FxPro GBPUSD h1 K50wn | cTrader
The Daily chart is also making a case for the short side with this correction in the early stages. Profit taking maybeā¦By the smart Money. FxPro GBPUSD D1 S50wn | cTrader
Weekly on the other side shows a converging Triangle with a break out of the triangle FxPro GBPUSD W1 t50wn | cTrader. Closer look here FxPro GBPUSD W1 R50wn | cTrader
suggesting a retrace 1.6459.
I held back on this pair to see if the short direction will confirm or will we get a total reverse. Wednesday is the next day for market moving figures. All eyes on USD on Tuesday, just what the market may need to send it lower.
Do you want to bet on retail figures being bad? We shall see.
More to think about.
Same format whether you apply it on 1 minute and everything in between right up to the monthly. The ZZ_orlova indicator does a great job of showing 4 phases.
How it behaves at 1.3300 will determine direction, at this point I am convinced the Euro will rebound but if 1.3300 gives then I have to go to shortā¦
No other way.
Whatās your take on the Euro Pipme? It is the one pair that is always tricky to predict. USD is fundamentally weakening but is now the right time by Euros?
[QUOTE=emeraldorc;647622]How it behaves at 1.3300 will determine direction, at this point I am convinced the Euro will rebound but if 1.3300 gives then I have to go to shortā¦
No other way.[/QUOTE
For some reason I thought we were talking about gbpusd, :rolleyes: No matter I agree with you on eurusd same analysis
GBP looks like in the short term it may go up or experience spikes, the medium term looks like it will go down and the long term view is still long but that I suspect will be triggered by a rate rise or some other shock news.
Wednesday will decide in my opinion. GDP has been edging forward. The market expects lower unemployment.
I agree. I donāt like that pair or usdjpy. Having said that, I apply strict VSA principles no matter what pair I trade or time frame. I know you go across several time frames, so our takes even though we apply the same principles would be different. Especially I know you consider up coming fundamentals, and the top and bottom of the cycle and and I do not. I trade after the fact. For example Wednesday is the big fundi day for USD, GPB, EUR almost all coming out between London/NY overlap. I wait until everything is done, then consider that information and I will trade either Sydney/Tokyo overlap or depending on whatās coming on Thurs the London/NY overlap.
Thatās whatās so great about the forex, lot a different ways to skin the cat.
Thanks for sharing GP. Iām glad to finally see the Wycoff cycle. I have a hard time trying to spot it. Maybe I look for it on the wrong TF. What TF you think it can been seen more clearly?