Well done, Emerald!
Good morning!
Already looking forward to next week?
We have:
Wow. We haven’t end this week and already looking forward for next week. Impressive planning, mate. Any good plan to share with us?
iMusingKimI,
hello!
Well, European and North American news will dominate, so any Eur and Usd trade could directly be affected;
my main themes at the moment are:
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Kiwi to the downside;
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Gbp to the upside (to be confirmed);
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Eur to the downside (except for Eur/Gbp and Eur/Nzd).
That’s the plan!
Yours?
yeah your trade tallies fine with mine. i think the governor did alright
Well my USD/CAD trade went pear shaped, stopped out -25 pips. Closed out my GBPJPY long at +10 pips. On to another week not much to complain about. Short GBP/USD on a support break think it will find last weeks low.
Hope you all have a great weekend.
Nice one, Emerald, ever the pro!
I am long GBP/JPY too but waiting for a GBP miracle (i.e. markets focusing on the rate hike again, paste the
Scottish referendum ‘scare’)… Got stopped out of GBP/USD long, but will re-enter if/once the signals are right…
Speaking of EUR/GBP, volume on the latest short move from 0.80 to 0.78 seems unmatched by the strength/size of candlesticks, which makes me wonder if, after all, this 0.7750 area (which was major resistance in 2008 and 2012) that I keep banging on about may indeed come true as the level for demand…
We shall have to wait and see…
Interesting with that pair. The Euro failed to test this weeks low at 0.7784 there about. If it does break then it will probably shoot for the monthly low but at this point it is hard to say, any fundamental surprise will spark some serious buying. So far fundamentals say lower is the preference but that is the worry… The herd are almost always wrong, so I have stayed away from a EURO downside trade till further confirmation. Could be another week of whipsaws and consolidation.
My focus is GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY. Absolutely no real direction. Short and long ideas for both pairs on volume, waiting for those key levels of 95.36 AUD/JPY to give and 176.63 on GBP/JPY. The best opportunities are in those pairs. As they say when the Japanese go they all go together.
USD broke higher and killed me on CAD, serves me right for not bringing my A game. However it moved very quickly to some extreme highs. Despite already short Sterling on USD, the fundamentals are expected to be better on the USD front, seems to Tally with last weeks fundamentals. Gold is also in a tight range so any downside movement with Gold should signal that USD is bullish, watching for Gold to break 1206.78.
Thanks Pip for the compliment. I am just a regular trader like you guys. Only I am a trader, it can seem sometimes like I am real knowledgeable but really half the time I am just risk managing and trading an idea. I do read a lot and the relationship between assets will always be the same. High Commodity prices, risky environment less safe haven action, higher safe haven prices means more safe haven demand, Gold, Silver, bonds will gain. If most of the guys who come in here are serious about trading like you guys we should have these conversations about CAPM and Sharpe Ratios. This will bring people to question why they are trading a market? Is it because the leverage is higher? Is it because less capital is required? Or is it because the asset generates the most return relative to other assets?
In fact Currencies with the exception of the Yen pairs can only deliver 80 pips average a day and 100 or so for the Yen pairs seeing you will only get 60% of the days move. Unless you are putting 100k lot into a trade meaning you need at least $5,000 in your account then your cash to risk return is low relative to say the 30yr T Bond.
If you traded a 30yr T Bond future you will need about roughly $10,000 in your account and for a quarter of a point risk $250 you can make 1 full point $1000 in a day. The T Bond requires less fundamental information, you only need to know interest rates for that year and economic growth. You can trade the bond future on technicals alone. Despite such a simple product to trade most haven’t even looked at the futures market.
Enough said, I am not that knowledgeable, I just have love the markets and want to trade everything out there. If you can trade FX successfully then you will be able to trade any market most are a lot simply. Sadly everyone is starting with the hardest thing to trade and concluding it is a scam.
Fantastic post, Emerald…
I was thinking over what you said about asset classes and rates of return, whereupon I chanced upon the weekend edition of one of my favourite podcast station, Power Trading Radio, where an economist of the Austrian/Meses school, Dr. Richard Ebeling, discusses with Merlin Rothfeld and his co-host the financial system and the mismatch between the Keynesian system of centralised banking (e.g. the Fed) and the naturally balanced system of interest rate based on the actions of market buyers and sellers…
A very interesting listen, at least for me…
Well, good morning, traders!
What a night it has been for the Kiwi!
After placing my fourth Eur/Nzd long trade this month last Friday (results: +110; -80; +3 pips), I woke up this morning to find it at +200! To avoid losing it, given heavy Euro news flow later today, I closed it 
The ‘perfect’ trade, having caught most of that move
I just finished listening to that podcast. The market is currently sideways so not much to do. Sterling has stayed under 1.6236 housing figures are terrible, no market reaction so US figures in view. Technicals are saying buy USD for now. S&P down this morning, Gold has been held up but momentum is on the downside still.
On to the podcast…
It is no secret that the world since 1930’s has embraced Keynesian economics. I only learned Keynesian economics until my final year. Made me a real eco warrior for a while. Now kids are either learning finance as an independent subject matter or economics to become a stat *****. That’s Keynes and Hayek been played out for you on educational arena.
The problem with market efficiency hypothesis is, no one believes it. Just take our babypips crowd looking for more info all the time, follow the smart money, etc. Price discovery is no longer efficient in an assymetric information world. If demand and supply is measured amongst the few then is the price arising from this efficient? Asia and Africa still hold around 3/5ths of the world population but lack the information to participate in markets. Central banks and exchanges still manipulate prices to accomodate large players with the ability to leverage.
The problem with Keynesian economics is it did not forsee a debt ridden soceity what it saw was government fueling spending via employment into providing public services. A classic case of the frog getting into bed with scorpion. Now we have a population that could not survive in pure capitalism which eventually means the brave guys like us will plunder capital in the markets despite the odds become more wealthy and eventually exploit the weak, comments like it’s those jews and immigrants will resurface and we are back to 1939.
While I naively agree with the wall street’s notion of let buyers and sellers get on with it, I also understand our social values are built on a Keynesian mentality. History has said the majority will always win.
Expect more decades of asset manipulation via rates and worse more regulation, investors will continue to carry the tab for the 9-5 shallow jobbers who need to have that latest Iphone.
Emerald, you continue to impress us with your clarity of vision… It is no wonder that you studied finance, as my meagre attempts at understanding macroeconomics are no match to someone with your knowledge and
insight…
I would like to pick up a funny story: last week, at the latest i-Phone release in Rome, student campaigners
set up a small and peaceful protest outside the store and threw eggs and flour (jokingly) at the crowd, while
distributing leaflets to remind people that, in the centenary of the First World War, we should work towards a better society… Quite poignant: people in war-torn Europe a century ago, versus people queueing up all night for the latest i-Phone today…
Going back to trading: how is the volume on GBP looking today, Emerald?
I am short. Volume is building around last weeks low US figures are due any moment. MFI suggests outflow so we shall see.
Good luck!
I will keep my fingers crossed for you.
US figures came out eight minutes ago but the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have hardly moved.
Today I’m short on eurgbp if it sets up. Waitng for pair to start consolidating, MFI to point downward, be below 50% level and retrace to entry points. Neither pair has any economic announcements today. Tech analysis, and sentiment were done on 30 minute. Same signs at the 15 minute as well as 1 hour and daily. Fib reading was taken between 2 white lines. Green lines are entry points, red is stop loss, gold are possible profit targets.
Go, GP!
Wishing you luck!
Thanks Pip but closed my short to take 9 pip loss plus cost. Looks like a whipsaw so waiting for the real move. The volume is in and MFI is still below 50 on GBP/USD. The big moves are yet to unfold.
Thank you . Slight typo. I traded eurchf not eurgbp The chart was right which is what counts.
Short the Euro at 1.2619 so thinking it will go as lower 1.2006 maybe I am just mad but in any case I am short, the order flow will decide. Also long USD/CAD at 1.1178 to target 1.1278 March’s high. On 4hr chart.
I am doing a lot more 1hr type intraday trading since last week, I have long held that one cannot make money from scalping like swing trading i.e. machines do it better, I am attempting to put in the work to bust the myth after all it is a belief I have that others may not share, in light of not holding to many beliefs despite transaction cost I will be trading intraday solely on volume and momentum S&R breaks and MA tests and breaks i.e 200EMA.
So I will be updating all on these trades. Allocated certain drawdown for this.
I agree with usdcad. I’m short on eurgbd. The thing with any and all trading strategies is there are pro’s and con’s. However there is one truth no matter what strategy a trader uses; you can’t apply long term trading rules to short term trades as well same goes for applying short term rules to longer term trades. The shorter the term the more you have to be in tune with short term market swings and momentum. I found tech analysis is much more important in the short term than say fundamentals.
In my opinion the best way to trade is not scalping, swing or position trading; but opportunity trading. I have a strategy for longer term trading and a strategy for shorter term. My longer term takes into consideration, VSA, Tech, Fundi and Sentiment information. My short term is based on technical analysis and a set of very strict rules. Again nothing is always right and there are pro’s and con’s no matter what your approach to trading is. Again my opinion.
You are quite right GP, I had to overhaul my strategy for short term trading, the market changes quite quickly from a range to a trend and back so you have to be more adaptive pending the market type. E.g. GBP/USD was perfect for taking trades on volume momentum then the market went into whipsaw mode meaning volume and momentum trades offered less risk reward, then it went into congestion and breaks as the market turned its attention to Cable.
I have always been comfortable on 4H and Daily but if one can master intraday moves (that don’t rely much on fundamentals) then I would have taking my trading to that next level. So far after a lot of strategizing the 200 EMA breaks and tests seem to offer the best risk/reward, if you combine with S and R it adds a layer of protection. Personally I don’t like getting in a trade unless I know where I am getting out. So this idea takes into account momentum, volume can play its normal role, trying to keep it simple as intraday requires just a measure of risk/reward. Thanks for the advice GP, always pleasure to hear from one of the better traders.