ok, decent logic there, i was just curious.
i would like to hang on too to the .618 …but i really need a winning trade lol and would be so pissed if it got to the 38.2 area and then reversed. i honestly think price has a decent chance of making it to that area though [or even beyond] but as a precaution am exiting somewhat early as i need the pips after being butchered by AUD/JPY recently…
edit: and have a good weekend everybody too…
Hey all,
No trades for me today it is Friday, did close out my negative Aussie trade -40 ticks but Sterling Yeng is up 196 ticks so it hedged the loss. Up for the week can’t complain.
Have a great weekend all.
FxPro GBPJPY h4 TrNwn | cTrader
FxPro GBPJPY D1 lrNwn | cTrader
Change of chart colour this week… Okay this my Yeng trade from last week, well I am dissappointed at momentum, falling volume tiny spreads followed a very intentful developing green candle. That combined with BoJ QE I am not sure what the story will be so it is time to cover. stop rolled to buy stop at the moment at 100 ticks a 1:1 on that trade, if I am wrong this should roll over by tomorrow and continue towards target.
Lesson here is go with your instinct no point be disciplined to the point you loose some hard earned profits. Note this pair was down 244 ticks by the London session and has rolled back some 80 ticks in the NY session alone.
FxPro EURAUD D1 vrNwn | cTrader
Euro Aussie in focus some concern here as this pair is turning down. Will consider switching to a buy limit if price makes its past 0.50. We just have to see how it all turns out for now keeping that sell limit order in place at 1.4980.
Hello Emerald ,and hello peeps!
I have been battling with the markets since last month, and had some very good days but also some bad ones…
Shorting the Kiwi has been my mission, so to speak, for the last two months at least… Getting the timing (and the pair)
right is the name of the game, plus managing risk size (most important of all)!
I am posting a 4H chart of NZD/USD, showing you a developing down-trend (and possibly a channel), which was
initiated by strong volume and an equally strong drop:
I saw your post and your new stop loss, and i gotta admit i too was getting concerned about the price. i wondered why you had set your stop loss there, then a measured with my fibs and noticed you had set it at the 50%
i thought about it, and yes …decided that this would be logical as there is also resistance there. so i waited for a close above the 50% and then closed my trade. good thing too as price seems to be kinda nearing the original entry
PS: good morning traders!
NZD shorts at the moment:
1st (10k) floating trade: +32.5 pips;
2nd (10k) floating trade: +4.7 pips.
Aud/Jpy short not going so well, as it shot up and is current sitting at -106 pips, but only a 3k position.
I am doubtful it has enough strength to breach the 100 level, and AUD/USD is looking bearish, which
will have an influence.
That is it for today.
AUD/JPY is soaring (in tandem with all Yen crosses)…The 100 mark is within its reach…
AUD/JPY supported with bearish Yen prospects | Top Equity News
My Yen trade rolled back as Pipme has highlighted that the Yen remained bearish but still +100 for me so I can’t complain. My orders are all waiting for now. I do think the Yen is over extrended and looking at the market expectation on industrial production after that massive BoJ QE will probably bring some kind of relief to the Yen but don’t quote me…
Anything is possible with market makers…
FxPro GBPJPY D1 L4Nwn | cTrader
I also stuck an order at the 1.618 a good candidate I think for the Yen to turnover for sell off. We shall see. 188.65 area is the key point. RSI is diverging but we know the bear move is always a lot later and never when you see the divergence. Could be wrong this time.
FxPro GBPJPY D1 K4Nwn | cTrader
Happy trading guys.
Hello Emerald…
I am very pleased for your results…
How is the new partnership going?
I am having a private ‘funeral’ over my recent losses, which stem from overleveraging…
Having a bearish bias on the Kiwi was right technically (like on the 4H chart I posted above),
so it was the size of my positioning that was bad… I had a lot of confidence in the probability of
the trade being successful, and I expressed that with a greater size…
I am annoyed at the world, and at the unpredictability of the markets… The Kiwi was on a nice
down trend, it was not hitting any stumbling block, Governor Wheeler came up last night in the
news conference saying the usual stuff about the overvalued Kiwi dollar… and what happened?
The Kiwi started going up, and up, and up… not at first, in fact, it was not reacting much to his
words… I was already in more than one Kiwi-bearish trade, and so I was not trading the news,
just being already in a trade, with stops in place, etc.
What can a trader do? My small account is now so diminished and I am just very disheartened.
Perhaps I am trying too hard… Perhaps if I had kept my wins from last week and avoided trading
this week it would have been a different story… Perhaps I should trade smaller… Perhaps, perhaps:
what good is doing all these post-mortems? Every bad trade is easy to call ‘bad’ after it happened:
I want to be able not to predict a trade, but to be better at spotting opportunities that have a higher
probability of success…
So I am feeling very sad now. I just look at the account and I feel empty inside, unable to fathom
whether I can stick with this one more day…
(CAN YOU TELL I AM HAVING A LOW DAY)
This will cheer you up bro
Nice one…
I’d take the $2,300 any time, though 
Oh no! Sorry to hear that. I know it can be quite hard to see your account go bad.
Emotional trade I am guessing? You probably need a break if you recall I once said after a massive win I don’t trade. A useful rule.
Keep your head up big man, you can’t let the loss define you.
Consider tops and bottoms, Koevner said you get the best probability and risk/reward. Try limit orders as well helps the emotion over trading so you spend more time with analysis. Something I had to consider more now that I manage money.
It is going really well on the fund side. Can’t get carried away though…
Thank you, Emerald…and well done on the fund… Wishing you every success!!
Maybe I really did need to wait and be patient with the NZD…read this!
FxPro EURJPY D1 XsNwn | cTrader
My EUR/JPY short is close to triggering and it is close to a major resistance level and also on the 1.618 Fibonacci. So we shall see, might not get triggered till Monday.
Have a good weekend all.
Hello all, hope you had a great weekend.
Well it is not always Christmas, got stopped out on the spike on EUR/JPY only to see the price come off that reversal zone in what looks like a 5-0 pattern. Classic case of a stop hunt even on a daily. Either way not much to learn only that had I not put my entry a few price levels below the resistance rather dead on the resistance the worse that could have happened is I wouldn’t get filled and if I did my 100 tick stop would have accomodated the spike as my stop would be higher. Well… never mind on to the next trade.
Hello, peeps!
How is it hanging? Emerald, still there?
I was posting on EUR/GBP’s uptick, but now that I came home and looked at the volume chart, I am not so sure it is a genuine move up…
Look at how the volume swells up in the middle of the chart but fails to generate a bullish candle… but then, toward the
right of the chart, when another volume swell comes, there is significant response in the candles, all bearish…
It looks like that 0.8025 level is strong and resisting… Too soon to tell…
Is this good volume-price analysis?
Hi Pip, so sorry for the brief absense. I am still here, I just got a little busy. I have been asked to handle all the market analysis and education for a brokerage firm in London, they are in the growth phase but have incredibile diversity and are working a lot on CFD’s. There was a handsome offer behind it so I couldn’t refuse so that plus managing my own fund has really eaten up my time.
The fund is fine we have taken a more long term approach with limit orders doing most of the work we are trying to keep it safe. I have been looking at indices this week but I have a few orders on currency waiting.
Of course my EUR/JPY trade stopped out so nothing new. S&P500 looks like it will top out soon so a good sell opportunity. Looking closely at AUD/USD looks like it could press into 0.8440 a buying opp in that zone. Looks like I have to bring bacvk videos.
Congrats, told you I wanted to be just like you when I grow up :60:
Gp
You are making me blush now.
I will keep posting trades but I will try and do a Saturday recap instead, rather than post everyday, just no more time for it anymore.
I hear you. Same goes for me. Have A Good Weekend
