Agreed Jason. The Euro has been losing steam on the down move but a reaction is expected anyway. Longterm monetary policy divergence and the existence of deflation possibilities, The Euro will weaken in 2015. We are also likely to the Yen gain some strength as the move was extended in the first place. I personally have had a long bias on Yen and it is now playing out.
Happy new year!
The Krone on the other hand, another one in my portfolio is looking weak, blamed on Oil but we all know the Krone has been losing steam against most pairs long before the Oil collapse. I wonāt be surprised the Krone to hit 10 against the Euro.
If the Krone gains against the Euro then we are seeing a much weaker Euro and the Dollar will likely be a prime candidate to buy. Euro Dollar is out of my portfolio that I have slimmed down to 5 currency pairs with diverse world exposure. My Dollar exposure remains in just cable.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLnesArN/
Anyone else thinking Gold could push 1250 before racing potentially back down.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FzE7wrNS/
Thank you Jason!
I had already read this article (by the ācycle masterā, Kristian Kerr) the day before you posted the link,
but thanks anywayā¦ always worth a second read!
decided to post this here as the reason i found it was because one of the links i found via this thread prompted me to look over the EUR/JPY daily
there is excellent convergance along the 78.6% of XA.
bigger pic here: http://i.imgur.com/LoC3lpc.png
personally i think there will be a nice bounce of price as it hits there, but ultimately i think price will continue downwards as the euro is so weak and the moment and the yen is strong. i shall attempt to trade the bounce.
btw emerald, what are the best sites for learning elliot wave?
really wish i had seen this.
i had a look just now and spotted around 3 differant patterns from multiple time frames landing with a D point in that area [youāre missing a few]. i would have definately got in and sold.
hmm, possibly i was initially wrong about your thread emerald [i never really looked over it in any detail before].
but my gut is now telling me it is possible you might be actually making profits.
Haha! After a few years I ought to be. I now run my own educators program within an institution plus trade my own capital. So I think I can hold my own.
The thread is open come in and share ignore the haters. By the way I also was short Short Sterling on Yen and have had a mega past few days that was a pattern as well.
Hello Emeraldorc and fellow BabyPips members!
I noticed that, after last week and the SNBās āblack swanā event, liquidity/volume has dropped immensely to a quiet lull
on a few currenciesā¦ Wherever the next volume swell will come from, it remains to be seenā¦
Happy trading.
Hello traders! Volume rose to about 3/4 of 100m units last night on the NZD/USD between 9 and 10pm as the negative QoQ and YoY NZ CPI data hit the wires, with a red candle of over fifty pips pushing price down in the 0.7625 region:
This is a confirmation of renewed bearishness, although the momentum has now taken a break, waiting for the next push.
[B]KIWI DROPPED CONSIDERABLY since the NYSE open (2.30pm GMT)ā¦
NZD/USD: securely under 0.77 ;
NZD/JPY: securely under 0.90.
Good work for my shortsā¦
This is terrific.
[/B]
And here is how volume helped the Kiwi below 0.77 and , in the last hour, below 0.76 as well:
A classic example of volume-price tandem: the move is a genuine one, backed by a 100m units volumeā¦
Following my previous post, I also wanted to show this daily chart picture of this pair, as it illustrates how the low is nearly touching the floor of the current descending channelā¦ This may be too late a time to go shortā¦ The Nzd/Jpy, from this point of view has much more room to the downsideā¦ Indeed, having just noticed that my Nzd/Jpy short closed with 179pips in profit, I am looking at opportunities to re-enter, although the pair stopped its long bear descent dead on the 100-day moving average, currently at 0.8933 on the daily chartā¦ Breaking this area would open up quite a deep dropā¦
Food for thought, especially with the Thursday 29th
Jan. RBNZ monetary policy statement (=rate decision) coming upā¦
Hello to you too good sir! All the capital is flowing into the bond markets after the ECB. I was looking at my charts and watching the SP500 sell off, the USDollar Index sell off, Gold sell off and bond yields fall as prices kept moving higher. The Eurobund was up 1% by the time the pit session opened in Gold, it was a straight sell off in about 1hr, Gold saw 1283 coming from the high of 1297. I was looking to scalp off a few points, thinking Gold will do 1300 in the pit session form 1292. I had to quick climb out, as closed out, 30 mins later Gold just collapsed but the writing was on the wallā¦ Trader instinct!!!
The benefit of observing intermarket relational analysis.
How ws your trading this week.
Sellers definitely moved in, we have fallen volume but matching spreads, I expect a mark up soon follows to attract sellers who missed the previous move. Balancing act of demand and supply. Agreed Pipme, great to see you got the hang of volume, remeber the days when you nearly gave up on the true scalpers weapon.
Good to seeā¦ You are now officially king of VPA.
Ha! Well, no, that would you be you, good sire!
What do you make of the NZD/USD dropping volume since entering into a descending channels (on the
daily chart)? Is this compressing volume a sign of a breakout? In perspective, the channel is quite small
compared to the downside movement that preceded it, and I do wonder whether the move below this
channel from Thursday/Friday (below 0.75) is the beginning of the breakout/continuation of a more
severe depreciationā¦ However, with the Fedās FOMC meeting this Wednesday, and the RBNZ rate deicision
on the very same day, this pair looks like trouble and I am staying out of trading it. . .
That falling volume, slow as it may be and over a few months, is a sign of something big, possiblyā¦
When you see that slowly diminishing volume size over a few months on a day chart, what do you make of
it?
FxPro NZDUSD D1 lWWwn | cTrader
Just took a look at this one.
Sellers came in and took the high of 0.7889 (Largest Volume of the day despite a what looks like a bull day. The wick gave that a way and also teh spread in relation to volume is a bit odd further confirmation came when we saw a lower close the next day on the simple price pivot.
Volume started to rise on the price decline into the break out. Check out the Fib confluence at the 161.8 Ext. lining up with the market structure support at 0.7358, the volume was less on a Friday naturally but the appetite to sell is there. I expect a pull back at support but I anticipate the next move will be an elliott 3rd wave minutte cycle meaning Kiwi is likely to push lower. That said, Aussie also looks like it could fall lower against NZD, so that means one of these are going to show temporary bullish action, my bet is AUD/NZD pulls back next week.
I never gave up on VPA!!! 
(That is the heart of my trading) however, one has to build a system that has multiple confirmations and is robust in changing market conditions.
Hello Emerald!
Thank you for thatā¦ Here is what I was trying to illustrate:
I put a red line over the volume bars, so it becomes obvious
what I was trying to say - that declining volumeā¦
It seems to me that the NZD/USD is declining but if the volume,
overall, is declining, then it could signal something: will the trend
be getting a little old? In the last six months, this pair has dropped 14% (=1,400 pips)ā¦
Conversely, the EUR/USD, for example, has accompanied its eight-month drop of 29% (=2,900 pips)
with a volume rise (again, see the red line above the volume bars), which would suggest that this
trend is healthier to the downside than that of NZD/USD:
What does the king of VPA think?
The Euro is finding some support but longterm the downtrend will continue.
You are right in saying more opportunity may lie in EURUSD.
Hi guys, I have been doing some tool gathering and testing on my MT4, I only play with live accounts by the way, it has to be real for me. I have acquired a collection of VPA tools to illustrate volume better, even picked up an auto position sizer. It is a shame because despite some of the fancy money management tools on Ctrader, I still canāt get the library of custom stuff MT4 offers.
I have also been trying to automate my strategies. So far I am doing so good it is scary. Anyway, I have been looking to short Gold, it seems like the opportunity checked in and I am short. My gut tells me that Gold will be the target for the a sell off against the USD. However one should never trust a Friday sell off but the last time we saw a Friday buy up of Dollars it started the bull trend we are still in. So what the hellā¦ Short Gold to get back under 1200/Oz. I have got a lot on it but I figured it will be a good way to keep this thread going by taking those VPA signals and recapping the trades every week.
I am less discretinary these days as we are trying to achieve some intraday consistency. Some automation is necessary, really takes the fun out of trading but it makes money.
Blue is entry, Green is SL (Need to let the trade breathe. Covering at 1187
What concerns me is the Green volume bar 4th of Feb, that was indicating a potential bottom, then we get that surprise NFP and a massive sell off with less than impressive volume. It was a Friday after all, my automated strategy had a sell on this too but we are not in Gold right now so not a trade I took. If we hit 1217, then my auto strategy says add to the position.
The red volume bar says buyers committed at 1225.00 so we shall see if that bar can be closed out. A lot of stops at 1200, so this is one to watch. We do however have rising volume into the sell off. The big buyers are still at 1159, so we have to see if they start exiting. My guess was Friday was people liquidating their Gold positions.
I deffenintly agree with you about a big sell of comming I potentially see $980 in the next couple of years maybe even sooner than expectedā¦ At this moment in time I believe that gold is correlating usd or has been for the most partā¦ Especially with all that has been going on with eruope and Greeceā¦ IMO gold just broke below the 200 day MA I do believe thereās a possibility gold could bounce back up to 1300 level soon, we have been in a ranging market for so long, thereās a possibility for a higher high to 1370 followed by a lower low as for now Iām watching for the 1220- to se if that level gets breached if soo it leaves potential to break back below 1200, IMO
[QUOTE=āLibertysilver;681986ā]I deffenintly agree with you about a big sell of comming I potentially see $980 in the next couple of years maybe even sooner than expectedā¦ At this moment in time I believe that gold is correlating usd or has been for the most partā¦ Especially with all that has been going on with eruope and Greeceā¦ IMO gold just broke below the 200 day MA I do believe thereās a possibility gold could bounce back up to 1300 level soon, we have been in a ranging market for so long, thereās a possibility for a higher high to 1370 followed by a lower low as for now Iām watching for the 1220- to se if that level gets breached if soo it leaves potential to break back below 1200, IMO[/QUOTE] I apologize for the pictureā¦Lol its not the greatest
