A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

hi guys, is me again. this is what i did with some knowledge of volume.

case study 1

  1. https://charts.mql5.com/10/597/usdjpy-m15-oanda-division11.png
    -does the volume validates the 3 hammer pattern formed? i believed so, the volume was above average at least.imo.

  2. https://charts.mql5.com/10/597/usdjpy-m15-oanda-division11-2.png

  • my entry, s/l and t/p
  1. https://charts.mql5.com/10/597/usdjpy-m15-oanda-division11-3.png
    -moved the stop loss up, the retracement is killing me.

  2. https://charts.mql5.com/10/603/usdjpy-m15-oanda-division11.png

  • i took my profit.

was it a legit volume validating my 3 hammer candlestick. or was i just super lucky?

Okay, this is how you read a chart with VPA/VSA/Wyckoff:

1st pic: you have strength in the background, highest volume bearish candle, 5th from the left, with the next candle up, closing higher, this is a bottom reversal, chart seems bullish. Then volume is drying up during the next 13ish, mostly bullish candles, which means there is “no demand” from the professional side at the higher prices, at least at the moment. This is bearish.

Then you have the highest volume candle in the last 12 candles above where it shows 08:00 on the chart, with the next candle down, closing lower. This is a top reversal, bearish sign, price is knocked sideways.

8th and 6th candle from the right, you have a really low volume bullish candles, this is “no demand”, bearish. 5th candle from the right, they move in on weakness, volume elevated quickly, this is an “effort to go down” the candle closes lower than the several previous bars, also takes out a minor support level, also this is a top reversal, bearish. It also has a bearish reaction in the next candle.

4th candle from the right, you have a candle with a little lower volume than the previous, but the spread is much narrower than the previous candle’s. This is “effort versus result”, the supply started on the 5th candle is getting bought up by smart money on the 4th candle from the right. Same applies to the 3rd bar from the right, bullish.

You have elevated volume on the second bar on the right, also closes on its high, bullish. If the last candle closed like this, then it is a “potential no supply”, which is bullish, if confirmed. The whole pattern what you call 3 hammers, is actually called the springboard.

2nd picture:

Okay, the last candle didn’t close as a no supply, but has the highest volume in the London session, also closed quite in the middle. This signals a battle between bearish and bullish traders, never enter with this in the background until it gets tested, and it is shown who won the battle. Don’t know if you entered on that or the next one, though the reaction is bullish (if the last candle closed like that), it is a low probability setup.

3rd picture:

Okay, the reaction was bearish, which also closed lower, than the open of the highest volume bullish candle. This is a top reversal, too bearish, 2nd candle from the right, disappearing volume on a bullish bar, “no demand”, doesnt look very good.

4th picture:

Okay, the no demand didn’t confirm, there was demand showing up on the test, a bit better for the bulls. I won’t go through all the candles like this on the 4th picture, but then it starts to look good for the bulls later. If you look for a no supply after the 8th candle passed from the left, that would be a high probability, safe entry. You didn’t get that, but I think on the 30M or the H1 chart where the 10th-13rd candles are from the left, there should be a “no supply”. Volume is definitely lower on the bearish, reatracing candles. Your exit is the 6th candle from the right, after it closes like it did as a reaction to such a high volume on the 7th bar from the right.

On the bigger picture I am bearish on UJ, I would only look for shorts on it. You can scalp the retracement of course. It was a bit shaky setup, you got lucky too, I’d say it is a 6/10, not too bad, but not high probability.

Thanks, Darastonius, excellent analysis :slight_smile:

Yes, bearish anything Yen-based is a good place to be: risk aversion will see all

the Yen pairs fall, including Usd/Jpy, regardless of USD appeal.

Thanks darastonius. Good way of interpreting. I went in after the springboard appear. Which is at the first pic. Now I would have to re analyse. Demand means the buyer and supply is the seller on retail side correct ?

Usually we say it from the standpoint of the smart money. If there is no supply, or no demand, then we interpret it, as there is no demand/supply from the professionals. We don’t care about the retail traders, because the herd in general is always wrong. Smart money is right, and we (or at least I :wink: ) trade with them.

But when I said, they are buying up the supply, they are buying it from the herd.

Noted. Same from me, I would follow the insider/smart money. Darastonius. Thanks for sharing , is very enlighting to me .

Happy trading :slight_smile:

In the end, though, it matters not whether you trade ‘on the investor side’ or ‘on the retail side’,

because all that matters is that you make money.

Retail traders can trade as retail traders and not worry about ‘the other/dark/‘smart’ side’ one bit,

and still make money…

All is relative to context: like retail volume on your charts… it has nothing to do with institutional volume,

but it gives you a measure of retail investors’ sentiment… When retail traders and hedge funds (for which,

see the aforementioned COT reports, ‘non-commercials’ category) coincide in sentiment, then it may well

be that retail traders AND hedge funds will make money out of the same move in the market…

The people who can afford to be on ‘the other side’ are institutional or corporate asset holders who have

large quantities of financial stock that is unwanted… They will manipulate the media to spur the public

to buy or sell a particular stock, while they trade on the other side… With currencies is different, because

they are not an individual company’s possession, for example, like Apple’s shares may be, broadly speaking…

A currency is first and foremost a country’s (or federation’s) own coinage; secondly, it is that country’s (or

federation’s) investment vehicle… Stocks are not used for transactions per se, whereas currencies are; every

time one of us goes to the bureau of exchange to change home currency into a foreign currency, and vice versa,

we are participating in the foreign exchange market …and you definitely do not get that level of participation

in the stock market :slight_smile:

Pip makes an excellent point. There are days when the tick volume is lighter and none the less it turns out to be range extension. This suggests that someone clearly move the market and it is likely that there was some great volume but it is impossible to say where it is from. On some days the move is so aggressive and bid/ask is so active that you would have to assume there were a multitude of players at a specific price level. All in all as long as you can read what is going on with the volume then you will be fine for for the most part.

I’m using cowabunca plus some volume understanding to validate my candlestick reversal pattern. Hope I can make this work for me. Lots of reading to do.

Happy pipping

Hello guys. I need some help . how do I source for volume . which broker is good. And whether tick or real volume indicator? What’s the difference. Thanks

Hello Joe…

I can only speak for FXCM, as I have never been with anyone else (first love, and all that) :slight_smile:

They now provide different volume indicators, including Real Volume; you can open a demo account and add tick volume as well as real volume to a chart, and compare the two, for example…

They only provide real volume for a number of pairs, however, so if you had a cross like GBP/NZD you would have to look at GBP/USD volume and at NZD/USD and do your own calculation for GBP/NZD…

Anyone else here care to comment?

I was trying oanda on mt4, the tick volume is so masked up. I know cause I double check with fxcm tick volume. So I decided to go check out fxcm’s platform . their real volume for usdjpy. Has a define high and low . maybe this could work. Before this I was basing my vpa with oanda mt4 . but it just doesn’t make sense. Hence i lost a couple of trades :frowning:

Oh dear…

Yes, try that and see how you get on…

Also, I dusted off this old thread through a search:

http://forums.babypips.com/candlesticks-chart-patterns-and-price-action/41475-supply-demand-vsa-wyckoff-petefader.html

I just downloaded Barchart(.com)'s app on my 'phone, after reading about it on the aforementioned Investopedia article, and it is a good way to integrate the CFTC’s COT report as it gives you daily buy/sell volume as well as an open interest curve based on the same Chicago exchange data, using currency futures contracts: in the bottom screenshot from my 'phone, for example, you can see the Pound bar-chart with the volume below it for B6 (thr futures contracts code for Pound), specifically for contracts expiring in June 2016 - a separate live chart is available for those expiring in Sep. 2016:


http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/66260-brief-share-questions-around-volume-any-contribution-welcome-53.html

Well, well, a year and a half later, we are all still waiting for that 7-year (or 8-year) cycle to make its full downmove; we came down from that 6,800-7,100 zone, and I then shorted at the first break of 6,000 back in July-August 2015; we have since seen the FTSE100 going below 6,000 twice, and have now seen it being stuck in a narrow 6,100-6,200 area for about one trading month…

There has been strong selling volume but it has not been as consecutive (i.e. day after day) and consistent to sustain those previous moves below 6,000: with other indexes (e.g. Nikkei225 and DAX) making more consistent lows, when will the FTSE100 and the S&P500 join into the inevitable deleveraging? When will the cycle come to be?

I remain short, because all the signs are there: extremely narrow trading range, indecisive volume (neither bullish nor bearish), Brexit fears, all conspire to a big move ahead… And holding at these levels is expensive for investors, so their only option will be to liquidate assets…

Bearish all the way…


So…US WTI (Crude) Oil rallies a bit, and

the FTSE100 goes crazy, nearly up to 6,300:


As Anton Kreil would say: “This is ridiculous!”

I do not see the volume behind it

(checked the daily chart on Investing.com)

so I think, again, that this is hollow optimism:

the end is inevitable, so put away the champagne

and stay short.

:slight_smile:

Brokers are on to this stuff now, when we first did this thread a few years ago, it was a gold mine. In any case with a few additional tools, it can all be unmasked.

OMG haha That is not good to hear, Emerald…

What has changed?

I am using COT reports and futures volume for currencies now, rather than retail brokers’ volume…

Again, it is an art, but the non-commercial volume from CFTC’s COT and the CBE futures seems

more reliable…

What do you use nowadays?

I agree not good lol! Well with TPO on my side and as you say the futures open interest stuff tends to give a descent clue. Statistical arbitrage is becoming more common for swing trading now, I see you are dabbling in the correlations yourself.

You should read Irene Aldrige on HFT strategy, this will give you a nice window into were this whole game is going. So for us old hands, we will evolve rather than die.

Thank you, Emerald… I actually admit to having to go and look up your term, ‘T.P.O.’: ‘Time Price Opportunity?’… I have to look into it, if I have time…soon… :slight_smile:

High-Frequency Trading: A Practical Guide to Algorithmic Strategies and Trading Systems (Wiley Trading): Amazon.co.uk: Irene Aldridge: 9781118343500: Books

I will leave this one for now, but I now have the link, so THANK you :slight_smile: