A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

Hi people, I did some long and hard research on all this volume and price validation and abnormality. It is working for as of now. I could see with much more certainty where the market might move. I use the duck system. But I back it up with price and volume analysis. Is paying up pretty well.

Emerald , would you shed some light on this ? I could see better now after deliberating practicing my analysis and research. But I agree, finding the point where big institution is having an interest is hard. I made 3 trades based on price and volume analysis. Is doing good at the moment. But I will need to look back at it after a longer term

Good day folks

Hi Joe, Well it works pretty well, especially when observing in higher frames but it is important you know what technical price level you are watching. The key here is just really observing a change in activity surrounding quotes. The more quotes, the more activity. This makes sense there is some big positioning. Even when you do spot it, you have to find the conviction to act and hold despite what will be a series of price moves that may appear to go against you.

You are observing the volume because it will imply distance price may travel as a consequence of the excessive trading. Providing you are right of courseā€¦

Well, well!

The madness continues, with the FTSE100 up to nearly 6,400ā€¦

But, lo! Check this price record (called a chart!!) and you know that

the facts do not stack up, namely, that rising volatility equates to

heightened awareness of fear/danger of a ā€˜house of cardsā€™ collapse;

in this chart, which I prepared on Investing.com, the purple line shows

the FTSE Vix (volatility index) overlaid on the FTSE100 monthly chart:

you will notice that I have circled two areas on the Vix line, showing the

spikes in volatility in January 2008 and then in August 2015 and January 2016.

Do you see what happened to the price candles each time? Big, sharp drop?

You are correct!


Now, this time the moral hazard is absolute and unashamed, but it cannot continue

indefinitely: how long should short-biased investors/speculators wait? Well, it only

takes another big event to spook ā€˜the marketsā€™ and fire up the fear gauge to new

volatility highs, and there is plenty to choose from - just look around the world and

tell me that all is well with the current economic outlook (just ask the IMF and you

will get your answer)!

What we are seeing here is the final death throes, the swan song of a ā€˜bull marketā€™

in assets that are either all-time highs (e.g. S&P500) or at cyclic highs (e.g. FTSE100),

and are simply unable to pitch up to new highs: they are justā€¦hanging in there, like

someone hanging on to a high wall, too tired to continue climbing but afraid to jump downā€¦

Eventually, they will get tired: watch and be ready to actā€¦ This fall is going to be beautiful,

a real work of artā€¦ and it will make selling a real treat, whether it will be equities, oil, Yen pairs,

you name it!

Patience, then, is key.

Back in my Buddha box.

Peace.

Hi pipsmehappy, if the purple line is suggesting volume. I would read as a whole. The bears are hidden but strong. While the bull is going up but without much backing from activity. It looks to me price is going lower without being mark down. Which means a strong selling is happening sooner or later. There is also divergence. Bulls are losing steam. Those bulls are probably due to retails trader. And traps set from news from market maker , tips and all. Where as the big institution and capable is shorting . am not sure if this is right. But I am learning. This how I see it .

Good day to people

This is a very good example of price driven by volume:


Look at the last two bearish candles

before todayā€™s, which are from last

Thursday and Friday, and then look

at the increasing selling volume shown

in the bars at the bottomā€¦On Friday, the

S&P500 was down over three hundred pipsā€¦

Notice also that the Friday day candle has a

fairly large wick, so there is doubt over a

continuation of this move, at least until we see

what happens this week.

Hello peeps,

here is another good example of the Wyckoff rule of Volume/Price Analysis, where a large candle (body) is confirmed/validated by high volume:


I am looking at the last-but-one candle on the right, showing Kiwi Dollar selling yesterday in this CME currency futures chart: see how the volume bar below confirms the move and is the highest volume in a month, as well as specifically the highest selling volume.

Nice post pipsmehappy. I am also currently checking out barchart.com . under future currency. Iā€™m still figuring how to use it

Hello Joe, feel free to ask questionsā€¦

Hi Francesco . hope I spell your name right. Correct me if Iā€™m wrong. Checked your bio. You are musician too. Iā€™m a music educator myself. My love is in the jazz & r&b kinda music. Letā€™s get back to trading. Hehe. I am currently using oandaā€™s platform, fxtrade. I find it pretty good. Best part is their highly customizable lot size. Which appeals to me a lot. I can have 0.005 lot size for trade if I want. But problem is they donā€™t have any volume indicator. So I havenā€™t been look much into vpa nowadays. I just doing what they call the price action. Looking at s&r lines, and trading those moving towards the s&r lines . on daily tf only am I trading. Still Iā€™m looking towards volume in future to help me to increase my probability in trades. And I have not investigate enough yet to pose you some question.

Joe

Hello Joe,

yes, I am a music teacher and a performer/composer tooā€¦

I think if my students knew that I had a secret passion for finance

and trading they would be confused, so I lead a double life haha

Glad that you are looking into volumeā€¦ You can try

the live charts on Investing.com to see the volume indicator

for commodities and equities, for example, but for currency

futures I have not managed to get the volume on there, which

is why I use BarChart.

FXCM has a ā€˜real volumeā€™ indicator (on a limited number of pairs),

so you could always try their demo account to view thatā€¦

:slight_smile:

There are some basic principles under pinning volume. 1. Low volume rising price, signifies weakness. Value is not moving with price. However the turn is not predictable so suits long-term trading. I for example will happily put a couple of k on in terms of risk and sit in it till the turn. 2. High volume at extremes suggests a possible sharp turn around or new beginning. The problem with this is, the new beginning consists of major volatile long-term swings, see EURZAR, Weekly chart as an example. You may not have the cahunas to jump on but the tops are solid areas to hide stops. If it is knee jerk we soon see extreme responsive volume at the other end of the market, this means long-term balance and possibly continuation, very position traders nightmare. 3. Finally the amount volume would normally tell you distance the price could go, the short-term nature of markets is negating this idea very quickly as volume of trades increase in the market.

Thatā€™s it. Good luck! It is a lot more than this to analyse correctly, the futures are a great help so best to start there, the platforms are too open to alteration so your view can be skewed, so find a source for real volume and then work with it.

Nice reply, Emerald!

I posted this about you too, today:

http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/76358-what-topics-would-you-like-see-discussed-through-educational-videos-4.html

Hi PMH,

Alan Greenspan was a musician as well. :slight_smile:

An accomplished musician, Greenspan studied music at Juilliard and toured the U.S. with the Henry Jerome Orchestra playing tenor saxophone and clarinet. ā€œI got into music because I used to listen to Benny Goodman and other dance bands on the radio,ā€ he told the ā€œTodayā€ show in 2007.

ā€œTo a young kid living in New York City, Goodman was my idol. Joining a dance band was also a great way to go on the road and see the country. So I turned pro ā€¦ but soon found out that I wasnā€™t as good as some of the other players in my band. In fact, as a kid, I played with one of the greats, Stan Getz! So it was a good thing I got out of the music business and went back to school. Iā€™m a better economist than I was a sax player.ā€

source: 5 Facts About Alan Greenspan You Probably Didnā€™t Know

Excellent, Jason, excellent!!! I am.just learning about jazz now :slight_smile: Amazingā€¦who knew?

Are you musical too??

Market are like jazz, you never know what is coming . improvise within a certain boundary. :wink:

Hey guys I have resurrected the following thread http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/77172-fx-traditional-vanilla-options-trading-why-underrated-but-better.html?highlight=Vanilla+Options to bring everyoneā€™s attention to the ignored Vanilla Options trades. This is a major part of trading, also volume could really show us where implied volatility could increase a total gem if you have a short dated Option on the go.

I did choir, guitar and even handbells in my schooldays, but regrettably didnā€™t continue any of that after graduating. :17:

I gave up looking at volume tick chart for spot forex on 5 min. The amount of screen time is killing. Iā€™ll now take a turn and try out futureā€™s volume. Another problem is I am using FX trade platform mobile. No tick volume data there :frowning:

Iā€™m a fan of using open interest in the options market to identify/confirm support and resistance levels.

Iā€™m intrigued by your comment, Joe. How does futures volume help save you time?