A Noobs Journal - time to give this a shot

thought maybe a journal would push me to be more invested in my learning. A place to keep my thoughts since they’re all over the place.

I’ve got a small live account, that I’m fumbling around with, thought maybe that would get me going. But I think I’m still just shooting in the dark.

So now it’s time to put down some notes about what my actual strategy is, entries, exits, tp, sl, all that good stuff. Questions along the way, to ask elswhere. All that junk.

And then trades of course. That’s the point right?

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Good luck with it all. I have done the same and have a small live account too. Have my strategy in place. So im just using this place so I have some people to be accountable to. The only way to reach your goals is to make mistakes and learn from them!

Will be following! Enjoy the roller coaster of a journey!

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So I was checking my trade.

Only have one open now.

USDJPY I’m $1.93 in profit. Which isn’t too shabby since my account is only started with $30 only.

100 units at $127.93

I’ll keep watching. Moved my SL up to 129. Not sure if that’s too wide but I’ll keep an eye on it.

Currently trading at $130.45.

Okay looking at GBPUSD. Anybody trading this this week?

I’m looking at price right now, and its 1.2482.

  1. Daily, price just hit an area of past resistance
  2. If you look at the monthly, we’ve hit the same area 4 different times dating back to 2016
  3. On the weekly, we’re green and again bounced off a area of resistance
  4. On the daily 3rd green day, just hit an area of previous resistance
  5. Volume is trending up

So now the question is, where do we go now? Break up, or come back down?

I think I might watch this into the evening or even early tomorrow morning to see what happens.

Also, something to be aware of, lots of news coming out on GBP economy this week, so maybe that’s a sign to stay away? I don’t know. I really think this goes down first a bit before a bigger move up.

If orderblock analysis can be applied here, on the daily, I think we still need to come down back into the 1.2250 area. But if the move is strong to the upside, would that even happen? More questions, so I watch.

That pair is in a downtrend for nearly a year. I wouldn’t go anywhere near betting on an up at the moment. Nothing in the markets suggests USD weakness. I’d guess more a retracement before moving down further. There’s not much good news for any economy at the moment, that’s a usual sign of USD strength.

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Oh cool, somebody is reading! Whats up!

Yea, I zoomed out and you’re right. Def in a downtrend. But there’s plenty of place where it moved up against the trend. Best to stay with “the trend is your friend” I guess?

You think it breaks the April and May 2020 lows?

My guess, and I’m not trading this, so it is a guess, is that it will go down to 1.20ish before any upwards movement and maybe lower. The last 4 weeks were so sharp that I can’t see how this week is anything more than a bear trap.

I’ll try out this price alert thing and set one at 1.2150 to remind to keep an eye on it. Thanks!

The trend for GBP is down.

I’d look to sell any relief rallies. As long as inflationary pressures remain, USD will the currency to hold.

I wouldn’t be buying GBP against any commodity currencies.

EUR/GBP might be a viable long GBP candidate, mainly since they’re both in the same boat in terms of rising prices but EU has the additional risk factor having to deal with any border incursions by Russia.

It’s all about inflation right now, which is heavily dictated by Russian/Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions in China.

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Well, I think I got lucky, I ended up tacking the trade later in the day. Probably emotions, after having done some analysis that I was maybe overly proud of.

Got in at 1.2385 on the 4hr after price starting moving back up. Was watching it all the past 1.2500. It’s back down a little bit to 1.2495. So made a bunch of pips!

Got lucky!

Looks like I got lucky with the news coming out of the UK and US yesterday.

@Forex.com shared this with me about an hour ago.

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Questions to ask myself about this GBPUSD trade that I still have open.

I’m up, so that’s great. But now what!?!?

  1. Take profits by selling half? Or some other amount?
  2. Just keep moving my stop? I already moved it to 1.2485. Just keep following? trading.com doesn’t offer a trailing stop. It’s pretty tight where it is now.
  3. The article from forex.com is targeting a 50% retracement from April 21 highs. That would be like 1.2615.

Any input from the community would be great! I’ll DYOR still.

Closed my GBPUSD trade at 1.2490. Kapow!

Stop loss as a % of ATR. Do some research.

Was reading some analysis on CADJPY and NZDJPY after seeing them on Marketmilk’s strength meter on the daily timeframe.

I start there and then work down to the 4h and 1h to see if those same currencies stay consistent across the different timezones.

I thought CAD was and started looking at analysis posts on TV about it. Then came back to check and it moved in real-time. Now NZD and AUD currencies are lowest on the daily. Maybe I didn’t refresh?

Anyway, looking to maybe go long on CADJPY on the daily., after reading some analysis on dailyfx.com. They’ve identified a possible bull flag. So I’m wondering, should I enter above the high of the consolication area or what for a deeper retracement of the flag pole?

Thoughts anybody?

So I took a long trade on CADJPY.

I’m not sure if I’m jumping the gun here, since the day isn’t over and the full day’s candle hasn’t formed.

But price broke through the consolidation area high and close from yesterday, which I marked at 103.09 and 102.77

I entered at the market, 103.16. I set my stop at the daily ATR from yesterday, which was like 119-120. So my SL is at 102. Not the full 119 pips, but 102 is nice and round.

TP’s, I’m not so goo at identifying. But if I go back in the chart, a couple highs that stand out are 105.30 and 106.40. Super far away from the current price, but they’re the closet higher highs.

Actually, 103.90 is next in line. So I’m risking 115 pips for about 75 pips. Maybe I should get tighter with my stop???

Anyway, let’s see where this goes!

BTW 102.20 is the low of the previous days’ close.

Trade update.

CADJPU is trading at 103.88. I entered at 103.16. Got as high as 103.97. So it broke that recent high I mentioned yesterday, came back down and is now get close to 104. Sweet!

Now I’m thinking I need to move my SL. Should that go to breakeven at 103.16, or higher? Thoughts?

I could lock in some gains, or should I leave space for the trade to do it’s thing?

I’m at least doing BE, so that’s done. Okay, update in a few.

Hmmm, hit 104.10 about 3 hours ago. That would have been almost 100 pips. Back down to 103.96.

I’m thinking since it’s Friday, maybe I lock in some profit. Move my stop to 103.75. That’d give me almost 60 pips profit. Then let it ride into next week.

Well, my initial TPs were 103.9, 105.30 and 106.4. Hit the first one. If I zoom into 2014, to see “structure” around current prices and higher, there’s a high at 104.93. So the closets is still almost another 100 pips away.

Maybe we just watch the lower time frames for the rest of the day, and see where we are at in a couple hours.

Yup, got stopped out at 103.75. Maybe move the stop right on up and take the 90, don’t you think?

Still a profit, so I can’t complain!