A Noobs Journal - time to give this a shot

Oh cool, somebody is reading! Whats up!

Yea, I zoomed out and you’re right. Def in a downtrend. But there’s plenty of place where it moved up against the trend. Best to stay with “the trend is your friend” I guess?

You think it breaks the April and May 2020 lows?

My guess, and I’m not trading this, so it is a guess, is that it will go down to 1.20ish before any upwards movement and maybe lower. The last 4 weeks were so sharp that I can’t see how this week is anything more than a bear trap.

I’ll try out this price alert thing and set one at 1.2150 to remind to keep an eye on it. Thanks!

The trend for GBP is down.

I’d look to sell any relief rallies. As long as inflationary pressures remain, USD will the currency to hold.

I wouldn’t be buying GBP against any commodity currencies.

EUR/GBP might be a viable long GBP candidate, mainly since they’re both in the same boat in terms of rising prices but EU has the additional risk factor having to deal with any border incursions by Russia.

It’s all about inflation right now, which is heavily dictated by Russian/Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions in China.

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Well, I think I got lucky, I ended up tacking the trade later in the day. Probably emotions, after having done some analysis that I was maybe overly proud of.

Got in at 1.2385 on the 4hr after price starting moving back up. Was watching it all the past 1.2500. It’s back down a little bit to 1.2495. So made a bunch of pips!

Got lucky!

Looks like I got lucky with the news coming out of the UK and US yesterday.

@Forex.com shared this with me about an hour ago.

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Questions to ask myself about this GBPUSD trade that I still have open.

I’m up, so that’s great. But now what!?!?

  1. Take profits by selling half? Or some other amount?
  2. Just keep moving my stop? I already moved it to 1.2485. Just keep following? trading.com doesn’t offer a trailing stop. It’s pretty tight where it is now.
  3. The article from forex.com is targeting a 50% retracement from April 21 highs. That would be like 1.2615.

Any input from the community would be great! I’ll DYOR still.

Closed my GBPUSD trade at 1.2490. Kapow!

Stop loss as a % of ATR. Do some research.

Was reading some analysis on CADJPY and NZDJPY after seeing them on Marketmilk’s strength meter on the daily timeframe.

I start there and then work down to the 4h and 1h to see if those same currencies stay consistent across the different timezones.

I thought CAD was and started looking at analysis posts on TV about it. Then came back to check and it moved in real-time. Now NZD and AUD currencies are lowest on the daily. Maybe I didn’t refresh?

Anyway, looking to maybe go long on CADJPY on the daily., after reading some analysis on dailyfx.com. They’ve identified a possible bull flag. So I’m wondering, should I enter above the high of the consolication area or what for a deeper retracement of the flag pole?

Thoughts anybody?

So I took a long trade on CADJPY.

I’m not sure if I’m jumping the gun here, since the day isn’t over and the full day’s candle hasn’t formed.

But price broke through the consolidation area high and close from yesterday, which I marked at 103.09 and 102.77

I entered at the market, 103.16. I set my stop at the daily ATR from yesterday, which was like 119-120. So my SL is at 102. Not the full 119 pips, but 102 is nice and round.

TP’s, I’m not so goo at identifying. But if I go back in the chart, a couple highs that stand out are 105.30 and 106.40. Super far away from the current price, but they’re the closet higher highs.

Actually, 103.90 is next in line. So I’m risking 115 pips for about 75 pips. Maybe I should get tighter with my stop???

Anyway, let’s see where this goes!

BTW 102.20 is the low of the previous days’ close.

Trade update.

CADJPU is trading at 103.88. I entered at 103.16. Got as high as 103.97. So it broke that recent high I mentioned yesterday, came back down and is now get close to 104. Sweet!

Now I’m thinking I need to move my SL. Should that go to breakeven at 103.16, or higher? Thoughts?

I could lock in some gains, or should I leave space for the trade to do it’s thing?

I’m at least doing BE, so that’s done. Okay, update in a few.

Hmmm, hit 104.10 about 3 hours ago. That would have been almost 100 pips. Back down to 103.96.

I’m thinking since it’s Friday, maybe I lock in some profit. Move my stop to 103.75. That’d give me almost 60 pips profit. Then let it ride into next week.

Well, my initial TPs were 103.9, 105.30 and 106.4. Hit the first one. If I zoom into 2014, to see “structure” around current prices and higher, there’s a high at 104.93. So the closets is still almost another 100 pips away.

Maybe we just watch the lower time frames for the rest of the day, and see where we are at in a couple hours.

Yup, got stopped out at 103.75. Maybe move the stop right on up and take the 90, don’t you think?

Still a profit, so I can’t complain!

I forgot to mention my new trade. Back into CADJPY! Had I left my previous trades SL a big wider, below 103.60, I’d be sitting on some crazy pips. Would have hit 2 of my TPs

So I went long on CADJPY again. Bought at 105.358. Set my stop at 104.80.

Price is at 105.85 right now. Same question again, where to move my stop. If I moved to my entry, I’d have about a 50 pip SL. I could just close the trade now for 50 pip profit. Or watch it some more as it moves closer to what I had put as another TP at 106.4, That again would be over 100 pips proft.

Using a ATR based SL is still a bit confusing. If I enter on something lower than the daily, am I using that timeframes ATR value, or always sticking with the daily TF ATR, or some multiple of it?

Interesting discussion here.

I think I’ll leave it where it is for now.

CADJPY currently at 106.18! Definitely time to move the SL up just a bit.

Closed my trade at 106.75. Opened it at 105.35, so a nice one!

I wasn’t sure where this could go, so I didn’t want to give up any more profit. It had already come down almost 50 pips from its high at 107.13.

I’ll keep watching to see if price direction flips.

Hard to pick a trade with big news this week.

But I’m watching the following pairs today and tomorrow

  • USDJPY - lots of consecutive green candles.
  • AUDJPY - daily looks like it could move back up towards 95
  • EURUSD - daily could also be looking to retrace
  • USDCHF - starting to use fib levels more. could be a move back down or possibly some accumulation before a bigger move up?

We on the way back down with that interest rate increase perhaps?