Sweet Pip, Phil challenged Carter too… but that didn’t work out so well for Phil, LOL 
[B]Edit: IMO[/B]
Well just in case they don’t, you’re now on my ignore list.
Alright, I said I wasn’t posting here anymore but when people post outright lies I have to respond.
What are you talking about? I’ve had disagreements and debates with R Carter before, but we’ve never been on anything less than friendly terms. I most certainly never challenged him or have been in a situation that “didn’t work out so well” for me.
There were discussions where I conceded to R Carter’s point, others where he conceded to mine, and a few where we simply “agreeded to disagree” but I don’t recall any conversation that “didn’t work out so well” for me.
The only thread I’ve disagreed with R Carter in (that I can recall) would be this one… 301 Moved Permanently
The tone of the thread was 99% friendly and everyone came out more knowledgeable. It seems to me you have a problem with people posting anything that disagrees with someone else?
I respect R Carter. He’s a welcome and helpful addition to this forum. I’m pretty sure he’d say the same about me, but if not hopefully he’ll correct me since my intention isn’t to put words in his mouth…
I’m wondering, ALL FX Members are behind this? 
Gosh!
I am around here (babypips) since a while, now (1 year?), but became in the last times a much less regular frequenter… It is all so dispersive and noisy!
I had a couple of charts, and wanted to say sweet J not to take my jokily complaints so seriously (I KNOW you are a good friend, ma’m) and wanted to go on…
So: I wanted to THANK Mr. Walt for the insights. Whatever reason or claim is behind.
To be constructive I wanted to start with two questions to him:
-
If it’s possible to have the references (or even better, the pdf’s ;)) of your literature. If disclosing here in public your identity is what you want to avoid (and I CANNOT disagree with you, in this case), please, make me a PM. You can verify by following my “little mouse” (sorry, I used to be a molecular geneticist till recently, and I had a lot to do with such cute animals), and you can verify my level of correctness.
-
Before discussing patterns and other features of your system(s) I wanted to ask you some more about the money management. What you present is a pure proportional MM rule, i.e. trading with 0.1% of your balance. But, you’ll agree that there is a huge difference in making it when your stop loss is 20 pips away or 200 pips. In one case you’re risking 2%, in the other 20%. There is a quite broad consensus, around, about limiting your risk to 2%-5% of your balance for single trade. You seem to have another take, here. What do you think about? Is such kind of risk management too tight for the kind of results (= trading for a living) that you suggest being possible?
I would suggest to everybody trying to stay a bit more focused: normally this is a good rule in life if you want to reach something. I suggest, if you really need to discuss about “good practices, scamming and similar” about this forum to open another thread somewhere else dedicated to such topics: you’ll find a lot of interested people (not me, actually), and let threads in the “Forex Trading Systems” area dedicated to [B]this[/B] topic.
My two coins
Fabio
Thanks Walt for being humble enough to continue while the big dogs are trying to sort out their ego’s.
As for me and some others here . We would like to learn more and run away with the “bone” of wisdom.
Dear Walt, dear people,
another thing I would eagerly clarify, here, is the need you suggest for a sort of “secrecy”, or “personal and not-disclosed” method of trading.
I am very aware and convinced that the trading game is a “zero-sum” one, and, here and elsewhere, I appreciate also contributions of people clearly stating that they are not going to disclose their [I]complete[/I] findings. I am, recently, also a frequenter of other “circles”, like the “quant” community (google e.g. “marketsci”: it is not allowed placing links here). Anyway, like yours, these are interesting readings, because a lot of knowledge is transmitted also under these limitations, and there is also a sense of the due “research, quest, investigation and thinking” that anybody has to do if he/she wants to be successful in this, as in any other endeavors in life.
But, if taken to the extreme, logical consequences, this need for secrecy would imply that, after a first input, like yours, we should quit discussing, in such a “public place”, otherwise the game will soon get an end.
You cite the turtles (Dennis, actually). Well: is there a possibility that in this case not just the diffusion of the system (which actually happened some times after the closure of the experiment) but the simple volume of their trading, applied on quite “light” markets at that time, was a reason for the system getting less and less profitable? I remember a chapter of Covel’s book in which there is a clear description of one trade where almost all of the turtles were involved, at such an extent that they simply drove the price of I don’t remember which commodity (cocoa?) very high, until, having exausted their available capital, a few market makers entered together the opposite trade and “defeated” the whole group of the turtles.
What I mean is: do you really think that, as “small fishes as we are” (unless you manage some JPM fund, probably you too, in spite of a couple of more zeroes right of your account than mine ROFLOL :D) is there a real risk that we can create a significant shift in the market? Market efficiency is rapidly increasing, that’s true, and is making the search for an edge of profitability harder and harder. But this is again just a business, as any other else. And competition normally makes people becoming smarter and smarter (is it a drive of “progress”?). But, as in the business environment, I would suggest that exchanging good information and suggestions among “good friends” (= small fishes) is no harm to a good strategy. It is like forming a small company: it is no more a “one man business”, but a group of people trying to beat, together as a team, the market out there.
The “safety measure” applying to this situation is a natural occurring one, that we already could see in action in this same thread: most people would dismiss as worthless the contribution. Still more (and this is a common landscape all over the financial cyberspace) will have no patience, method, endurance, for studying it appropriately, exercise and experiment with it, and bring it to the [I]development[/I] level. I think in the forex forums around there are tons of “diamonds”, that were simply lost on the road of the search for the “next hot thing”. Most of the commercial robots sold around are simply a copy of public ideas (and normally not taken to the due maturity).
There is just a [B]caveat[/B] here, in my view. That, around here, there are probably also [B]big fishes[/B], probably more interested in hedging against good systems emerging, than to adopting them for their institutional trading. An advantage of small fishes versus wales will always be the capacity of maneuver. But, probably it is really good for the small ones keeping the real big ideas in some “private circle” (Sweet…?).
Why all this bla bla…?
[U]First[/U]: to ask you, mighty Walt, if you are disposed to go on for a while to help with some more clarification.
[U]Second[/U]: because I am very interested in the opinion of everybody about the possibility of finding an edge, and how will it be possible making it in a collaborative way, or if it’s necessary really being “lone warriors” in this battlefield.
[U]Third[/U] because, depending on the answers, I will decide whether it makes sense going on with charts and numbers here, or in a parallel, closer environment.
Bye
Fabio
I read Walt’s post with interest when first posted. But have to say, having read it and re-read it’s left me with more questions than answers.
Aside from the ABC pattern, I don’t see a tradable system here? Perhaps I’m a bit thick? But it all seems a bit vague. For instance based on an ABC pattern and time periods develop a ‘unique’ system unknown to the market. Sounds a little ambitious and I have been trading a long time. 
If you have developed a ‘unique’ system and don’t want to share it thats fine of course but why post half a strat and leave the ‘nuts and bolts’ out. Its like getting a flat pack home and finding the assembly instruction have been left out… I know what its supposed to look like from the picture on the box but … err… I have a pile of pieces and no clue how to assemble them 
this post speaks in volumes for the man IMHO!
Actually, I’m not suprised that some of my earlier comments were met with
hostility and incredulity. Nobody seemed to “get it”.
This was my fault. I’ts because I started at the end of the story instead of
the beginning. I stated what I had done, and what these systems might do
in the future, and not how I got there.
So, let’s start at the beginning, and work through to the end:
First, let’s apply common sense.
If a million people are looking at the same market aspects you are, what
are the odds of any of those aspects providing you with substantial
profit? The best you can hope for is some small profit for a little while.
Books and systems out there can offer general education, and some basic
ideas on where to start, but if any of the aspects of such showed strong
profit, do you think their creators would have disseminated that information
for any amount of money?
Bearing this in mind, we can see that aspects of the market that are
unknown or known by few, have much more potential for profit.
But how to go about it…
First, you will need a minimum of general knowledge.
- Elliot Wave theory
- Candlestick theory
- Mathematical logics
With the Elliot, don’t concern yourself with the overall pattern. Study the
Characteristics(how they act) and logic of the waves (swings) themselves.
With candles, familiarize yourself with the basic patterns, and study the
logic behind those patterns.
With mathematics, there are market logics such as indicators and other
mathematical interpretations of the market, and then there are logics
outside the realm of markets but still applicable. Chaos theory and
Probability Theory are a few examples. Familiarize yourself with the math behind each logic, but focus mainly on the logic the math is supposed to represent.
Now that we have our minimum general knowledge, let’s turn to the "base"
of the market: the AB pattern.
The AB pattern is simply an upswing followed by a downswing, or a
downswing followed by an upswing.
Consider the aspects of each bar in the swings:
- Position in swing
- Relationships of High and Low (individually and in groups)
- Relationships of Open and Close (individually and in groups)
- Relationships of bar range (individually and in groups)
Next, consider the relationships of the swings:
- Size of swing
- Average number of bars in swing
When studying this, try to work out the logic behind what you are seeing.
Now that you’ve done this, it’s time to consider the logics.
The trick is to think about the logics you have accumulated, and how they
go together. Play with it. Move the logics around. Compare and contrast
them. Add them and subtract them. Find new ways to put them together.
Your time will be well spent. If you can isolate just one pattern, you
will do very well.
As an example, the price pattern I use began with the logic behind Chaos
theory. From that single logic, I extrapolated a single market aspect that
proved to have a powerfull confluence with other market aspects.
In closing, I assert that, based on reason common sense and personal
experience, the patterns you find with this method will yield results far
superior to any known approaches. Further, these patterns should
continue to yield profit for many years. I have used 1 or 2 patterns for
over a decade.
Hope this post serves to enlighten…
Great post, Mr. Walt.
It is much more interesting and probably useful than a “proven” (?) system, because it goes about METHOD.
MY problem, I think, is that I am really in the middle of this process & observation, but I have not found the way out, or the synthesis, call as you want. At least not a CONSISTENT one.
But this is also the way I’m (trying) to go… And this is also why I am still interested in reading, hearing, looking around (e.g. the “quants”). Because I know there is some relationship there, and I realize how far I am from having found it.
Will anyway think a lot about, and… if you concede, make some questions, maybe, in the future. BTW: for “chaos” do you refer to Bill Williams or the math/physics formalism?
Thanks
Fabio
To answer the latest question briefly, it’s math chaos theory, not
Bill Williams, who IMHO got it all wrong…
I think we’re on the right track now folks.
I started a new thread titled: “A System that Can’t Lose…”
Migrate over to there, and we can talk about logics.
I think the new thread will bring in alot more people with ideas.
This should be beneficial to all…
A bit rough [B]trav72[/B]!! 
You know that I have been on this forum a long time.
In that time I have lost count of the number of trolls and outright pests that have plagued this forum.
I remember one guy on this forum who claimed to be totally successful, posting huge numbers of pips every week.
He went to Forex Factory, was then banned for telling outright lies - he was a complete fraud, never made a pip in his life!!
Yes, we senior members do have a responsibility as I see it to try to restore order when we see trouble.
And yes, to protecting newbies.
And yes, to exposing fakes.
And yes, to shutting up spammers.
…couldnt trade there way out of a wet paper bag
That sort of rubbish is not worth answering.
I cant believe the admin lets them get away with such vitrioul all the time
On the contrary, I have just had a lengthy congratulations from the Admin for my assistance in trying to deal with trolls on this forum. 
[B]Now regarding the content of this thread…[/B]
Unfortunately, Walt123 still has no credibility with me.
[B]Phil838 [/B]questions him.
So does [B]o990l6mh [/B]who also passed MENSA.
And now [B]R Carter[/B] is asking questions.
Pity [B]Tess[/B], [B]Jocelyn [/B]and [B]Andre Mayer[/B] are not here to check as well.
Walt123 tells us that a unique trading system wins the day.
He then tells us about ABC patterns.
I have those Merrill Lynch patterns in my book Bollinger on Bollinger Bands.
I had another book with every trading pattern under the sun. (sold it).
Trading patterns are very well known.
So are Elliot waves.
So they are NOT unique - hence no credibility - yet!!
Australian master trader, Darryl Guppy tells us that prophets (Elliot waves), have a success rate of 17%.
Yikes!!
Forget that!!
And then Walt123 mentions the use of Astrology!!
Well that just wrecked any hope of even getting credibility with me!! :eek:
How about palmistry or widgie boards!!
What about necromancy - shall we contact the dead?!!
How many of you here remember [B]Bazooko[/B], who set out to prove that tossing a coin can provide a good trading system - it is on this forum for you to look up.
Was it not Van Tharp who wrote about coin tossing as a successful system.
Chris Tate, Australian master trader, tells us that research proves that most systems using indicators battle to better 50%.
To quote………
“It is extremely difficult for traders to accept that the tools they use may not be as effective as they thought, or that their methodology may have a reliability below that of simply tossing a coin.”
I maintain, therefore, that the overwhelming evidence is that trading systems themselves do not necessarily make you a profit.
A good strategy in the hands of a beginner may fail, a mediocre one in the hands of an experienced trader will do well.
[B]Why?[/B]
Because of the only factor that we can indeed control in the market – money management.
[B]It is quality money management that decides whether you succeed or fail in the market – not your system!![/B]
Mature traders understand this, new traders do not.
Quality money management adhered to unfailingly will see success.
It consists of letting your winners run, using multiple contracts, adding to wins, moving your stop loss, proper calculation of your risk factor etc.
It consists of cutting your losses short – never allowing your losses to exceed your wins, or you will lose at forex.
It consists of correct selection of broker leverage ratio, and then careful selection of your actual leverage in the trade.
These are things you can control.
You cannot control the price action once you are in a trade. :eek:
Therefore, your success depends on the things you can control – and that is your money management.
Everyone who reads this post knows that – or should know that if you want to succeed.
Walt123 claims success based on a system or strategy.
He makes no mention of money management.
[B]That is why I do not believe him.[/B]
Obviously I’m not smart enough to understand the brilliancy of Walt so I can only congratulate you trav, and others, on being much smarter than me. Stupid me to ever have questioned anything about a guy with enough ego to start a thread with a name like this thread’s! Thanks for setting me straight!
This all just seems like a replay to me. I’ve seen it before - the mysterious poster who [B]knows[/B] something… Have a ball people.
I’m staying away from this thread and I’m adding some people to my ignore list. That’s something I’ll be doing from now on.
its not necessary brilliance or the holy grail, its another view idea and should be allowed to be discussed and developed without trolls hijacking thinking they seen it all before, know better b.s.
why you guys never leave it for those who are interested is beyond me - who are trying to save?
there is more than one view. The much respected Dr.S.Sivaraman has a lively daily blog over on fxstreet discussing live market analysis which is based on his respected alogrithm - which has astro-pyhsics as an element of it…If you branch out you will find more than one view! It is all about listening and learning and not thinking you know it all and seen it all before.
Who is Dr.S.Sivaraman?
Dr.S.Sivaraman was born in 1952 and got his Ph.D in applied statistics in 1979. He served as professor for 28 years under University of Madras, Chennai, India. During 23 yrs of his post doctoral work he developed a statistical algorithm to predict the world markets direction, trend,trend reversal,time and levels using astro-physical parameters ('X- Factor ') influencing human decision making and herd mentality which are the main governing forces of the markets world over.
He has several analytical and financials articles to his credit. He is providing the Forex market forecast through Accurate Currency Markets Forecasting and Managed Account Services to various subscribed financial institutions, banks,and traders of different parts of the world. He also provides online Professional trading training to members -how to read the intentions of the operators and effective trading strategies to earn from any market condition at ease.
He has contributed user friendly features like trailing stop,trailing hedging order etc.in actforex trading platform developed for online trading to all investor at for his exclusive multiple managed accounts facilities. He also efficiently manages trading accounts for wealth management companies and high net worth clients. His forecast is being published in fxstreet since 2001.He also gave several Q&A sessions for fxstreet.com audience
I will venture a comment despite having nearly been sucked into the intellectual vacum of that ‘other’ thread.
First of all I like Tymen’s post it is completely unambiguous unlike the premise of this thread.
Secondly, planets are nothing but big chunks of ice and rock, gravity being geodesics of curved space and time varies with the inverse square law and as such is the weakest of the four fundamental forces. Therefore there can be no possibility of astronomical or astrological influence in currency markets, H311 Jupiter’s gravity can’t even lift a pencil off my desk.
on the other hand… phrenology… the bumps on my head tell me a bull market is about to hit… now where did I put those yak entrails…
pseudo science just goes against the grain.
I’m reading this book ‘High probability etc…’ mentioned earlier, it has some wave theory in it. I won’t dismiss that entirely, there are certainly repeating patterns in price I’ve noticed.
well anyway using simple well known stuff I’ve made myself 50 pips today, going to go now and pull a few more dollars off the Asian, bye y’all
Ever heard of [B]J. Welles Wilder [/B]the guy that wrote [B]‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ [/B]
Yes, FX-Men Honorary Member [B]dpaterso’s[/B] hero
[B]J. Welles Wilder[/B] is also known for his world famous [B]Delta Phenomenon [/B]
Well guess what the [B]Delta Phenomenon[/B] is based on?
Yeah… the [B]interaction of the Sun moon and earth![/B]
So… who thinks old [B]J. Wells Wilder [/B]is a quack?
PS Dr.S.Sivaraman is pretty sharp too!