A System that can't Lose

wrtm_19 · December 3, 2009, 6:04pm

Sweet_Pip:

Hi wrtm,

[B]1)[/B] Miners says that simple ABC corrections often complete within the 38.2-61.8% time “retracement” of the trend, which is projected from the end of the trend. Any support or resistance prior to 38.2% time ratio would be considered temporary. Complex corrections typically complete by the 100% time ratio. The range between 38.2 & 61.8 time ratios can be rather large.

[B]2) [/B]So then we create the 2nd time “projection” (ATP) fib to narrow the gap. This is measured from the end of the trend to the first correction wave A, then moved and projected from B. Typically a correction (Wave C) will end at it’s 61.8 (minimal) or 100% (probable) or 161.8% (maximal) time ratios.

[B]3) [/B]Then there are a couple of ways to add a third time ratio - cycles. If the recent low-low (L-L) or High-High (H-H) cycles have been in a relatively narrow range, the next low/high is [B]likely to fall near the 100% L-L/H-H projection[/B]. Or you can also make projections for the minimum to maximum range of the recent L-L/H-H cycles if they have been in a relatively tight range. The most recent cycle is the focus.

Each set of time projections has a specific reason and purpose. Each is a logical proportion of prior sections. We begin with [B]1)[/B] the broad time retracement range and [B]2)[/B] narrow the time range with the position of the ATP and [B]3)[/B] cycle projections. [B]If a relatively narrow time range is made from the three sets of projections, it is a high probability time target to complete a corrective low/high.[/B]

Alternately there seems to be a 4th dimension…lol…Time Bands. Still haven’t gotten much further than that myself. The festive season is upon us and I’ve gotten myself into much to do from cookie exchanges, decorating, social engagements etc. I’ll have to get a pic to post of our boat all decked out with lights for our annual Christmas Santa Cruise.

Thanks a lot for your answer Sweet Pip!

This part has been the most difficult in the book for me to understand, but certainly your post takes away a lot of questions out of my head.

Oh and btw, waiting for that cool pic of your boat:cool:

Ok time to move on to page 121.

Sweet_Pip · December 3, 2009, 6:33pm

You’re quite welcome

Actually I have been working on the time bands section because I feel it is closer to what Walt123 was on about. So I’ve been making an indicator based on the zigzag indicator to count the pips & bars of each swing and display them on screen. It’s basically complete but I have a bit of a “repainting” problem that leaves a bit of residue on the charts that I have to fix…lol.

In what little he did impart, he said

BUY on an a “DOWN” ABC swing in an “UP” market.
SELL on an “UP” ABC swing in a “DOWN” market.

The definition of the completion of an up or down ABC
pattern should be a ratio of time and price that is
unknown to the markets. In other words, you need to
study price action and devise a time/price ratio that
is unique to you.

Ok so fair enough, we should know #1 by now, and working out #2.

Further to this then, he gave an example…

DOWN ABC Pattern =

Time:
DownSwing of 3-6 periods,
Upswing of 2-4 periods, Downswing of 3-6 periods.

Ratio:
Second downswing©>= first downswing(A)

As, a caveat, as a starting point in your search for a
time/Price ratio of your own, look at number of bars in
each swing, and some ratio of the swings compared to
each other.

So to me that is very much the way I understand Miners Time Bands to measure, and then all we need to find is a unique combination of bars (periods), that repeats…lol. So that’s what I’m hoping my indicator can reveal more easily than not.

wrtm_19 · December 3, 2009, 9:40pm

Sweet_Pip:

You’re quite welcome

Actually I have been working on the time bands section because I feel it is closer to what Walt123 was on about. So I’ve been making an indicator based on the zigzag indicator to count the pips & bars of each swing and display them on screen. It’s basically complete but I have a bit of a “repainting” problem that leaves a bit of residue on the charts that I have to fix…lol.

In what little he did impart, he said

Ok so fair enough, we should know #1 by now, and working out #2.

Further to this then, he gave an example…

So to me that is very much the way I understand Miners Time Bands to measure, and then all we need to find is a unique combination of bars (periods), that repeats…lol. So that’s what I’m hoping my indicator can reveal more easily than not.

Lol, No kidding!, Now I know what you mean :eek:

I already see myself lacking fingers to count bars and being a total mess trying to spot time bands!

No wonder why he mentions his trading software over and over again :).

There’s no limitation we can make it without the sofware, lol.

Sweet_Pip · December 4, 2009, 12:58am

Ok, here’s a pic of what I think Walt123 was getting at. I’ve circled a down ABC.

A swing is 5 period bars and 241 pips
B swing is 7 bars and 196 pips
C swing is 6 bars and 282 pips.

C swing >= A swing

So now I keep looking for and ABC sequence of 5-7-6 bars and C price range is larger than A? Wish Walt was still around to answer…lol.

Ok, so if that’s the case, then his entry suggestion was then either

Enter if time and ratio complete AND

the Low of the most current completed bar is > the Low of the previous
bar.

OR

the close of the current bar is > the midpoint of the current bar.

I’ll have to compare that to Miner’s next chapter about entries

LUD · December 4, 2009, 8:55am

great to see this thread alive again, I think it´s a great system. at the moment i´m experiemnting with COG indicator and the dual timeframe momentum, which I have used in every system so far with great success

next week i´ll be active here guys.

mich · December 4, 2009, 12:18pm

Sure. I asked some questions about the trend last time. I mentioned that it would be moving south. Ok I am ignorant about Miner’s book. I mentioned that EW in any form and shape plus the RSI trend helps me. Remember I am talking about day trading. I only have time to check positions in the morning and evenings. So let us see the EUR/USD diagram for today. It is nearly 5:00PM on Friday and London market is closing (and I closed my position after making 120 pips).

The PDF is attached. Note the red candle for today. It is a solid marabuzo with little tails either. The RSI has followed a steep downtrend today past that 50% mark for the first time since November. By the look of it it still has to go further towards 45. The way the zigzags are there on the price are not that clear to me. So I am not going to sit and make an exact science out of it. All I can say is that we are going to have a further downtrend down to possibly 45 on RSI followed by an uptrend. Of course the past RSI trend helps. Look at the troughs. They say a lot. So in summary further down to go followed by an upthrust early next week.

HTH

EURUSED_daily_20091204.pdf (52.9 KB)

Sweet_Pip · December 4, 2009, 12:34pm

What does HTH stand for?..One version I know of is “How’d That Happen!”…

mich · December 4, 2009, 12:38pm

Not in this case I am afraid.

HTH (Hope This/That Helps).

Cheers

Sweet_Pip · December 4, 2009, 12:52pm

Thanks for the enlightenment…lol

Can’t recall if you mentioned what RSI period you use? Sounds like you’re doing great! And you’re only working off the daily and eurusd right?

mich · December 4, 2009, 1:23pm

Thanks SweetPip, I am doing alright. At this moment I am using EUR/USD as opposed to something more volatile like GBP/USD.

I like this method as it is more methodical and it suits less volatile pairs like EUR/USD. Also I try hard to predict the EW 5+3 waves. 5 waves are pretty straight forward but from A-C followed by zigzags etc gets a bit more tricky.

I use 14 period RSI. That is 14 days, with 80% (blue line) and 20% (red line) limits. An instrument like EUR/USD is never that volatile especially on a day’s chart so with a kin eye on RSI and the price action one can get somewhere. What I have found with this method is the fact (and money managers won’t like that) that I do not need stop loss. The reason being that it may take couple of days but it will eventually move to the direction you predicted. To be honest I was behind by 70 pips three days ago. The reason was that I opened a sell position too early (yeah I looked at the daily chart, one of the candles looked like forming an evening star shape but it did not). In actual fact the price went up (the green candle, three days ago) and then started moving down. I checked the position yesterday. I was 30 pips behind, an improvement (like seeing green shoots of recovery!). However, it paid off today. The other reason was that the RSI (if you notice) took its time to go down. However, I guess that is the nature of the game, otherwise it would be too easy. It would be interesting to see how this develops on Sunday evening when the markets open. Personally I would wait and check RSI before I open a position. If it hists that 45% line and turns up then you are in safe territory.

Cheers

mich · December 4, 2009, 4:51pm

Well as you may observe from the COB EUR/USD diagram today, RSI closed on the dot touching on 45% line.

Also note on the chart itself that I have redrawn the trend line from the top of green candle to the end point of today’s candle. That looks to me more of a realistic zigzag line than the ones before. If things work according to the plan then one would expect and uptrend from next week and RSI should turn as well. A comparison can be made with previous RSI trend curve shown in red circle.

HTH

EURUSD_daily_20091204.pdf (52.9 KB)

wrtm_19 · December 7, 2009, 8:10pm

[B]Sweet Pip,[/B]

I have a question for you if it’s ok.

Regarding the dual timeframe momentum strategy (wich in the examples becomes triple timeframe:D) , what indicator do you use?

I’m wondering because I’m trying with slow stochs, they seem easier to me to spot and less noise, BUT, I’m still trying some different inputs in order to reduce noise.

Also I want to know if in your experience you’ve find more useful a wider range of time between timeframes. For example Daily with 1hr, instead of 4hr with 1 hour. You know the typical would be a factor of four (15min with 60 min, 1hr with 4hr, etc.)

Thanks!

Sweet_Pip · December 8, 2009, 3:52am

Hi Wrtm…ask away anytime

You’d be surprised to know that after all the effort of working on Miners’ strategies, I find it a lot easier just to trade in the wave when the dual time frame stochs are going in the same direction…lol.

I’ve got 2 stochs overlapped in one subwindow… an 8,3,3 & a 80,16,16… which is supposed to represent the 15min which I trade off, and the 4hr longer term direction. So when the 4 hr stoch is going up, I wait for the 15m stoch to oscillate and cross up from below to buy, and vice versa for short.

I’m also using mtf CCI histograms which are just 2-3 histograms with different lookback periods too. I look for the colors to line up together, after a pullback, to enter a trade in the direction of the wave as indicated by the stochs. It’s still something I’m putting together so I really haven’t got much “experience” with it yet although my results using the strategy tester simulator is promising

I don’t really have an answer regarding a wider range of timeframes. With the 3 CCI’s I suppose I’m covering the 15min, 1hr & 4hr bases;)

wrtm_19 · December 8, 2009, 11:44am

Sweet_Pip:

Hi Wrtm…ask away anytime

You’d be surprised to know that after all the effort of working on Miners’ strategies, I find it a lot easier just to trade in the wave when the dual time frame stochs are going in the same direction…lol.

I’ve got 2 stochs overlapped in one subwindow… an 8,3,3 & a 80,16,16… which is supposed to represent the 15min which I trade off, and the 4hr longer term direction. So when the 4 hr stoch is going up, I wait for the 15m stoch to oscillate and cross up from below to buy, and vice versa for short.

I’m also using mtf CCI histograms which are just 2-3 histograms with different lookback periods too. I look for the colors to line up together, after a pullback, to enter a trade in the direction of the wave as indicated by the stochs. It’s still something I’m putting together so I really haven’t got much “experience” with it yet although my results using the strategy tester simulator is promising

I don’t really have an answer regarding a wider range of timeframes. With the 3 CCI’s I suppose I’m covering the 15min, 1hr & 4hr bases;)

Thanks for your answer.

Well yeah! I’m surprised indeed. You follow the same principles?

I just started trying Miners strategy. It takes me a lot of time to set my charts since I have no practice yet, and can’t be conclusive about it, but yeah it’s kind of complicated

Sweet_Pip · December 8, 2009, 2:01pm

I don’t find Miners strategies complicated, but I do find drawing all those fibs…price & time ones…rather tedious and really clutters up my charts where I seem to lose sight of the wave action. Miner does chastise one for complaining …“[B][I]If you’re not willing to do the work necessary for the information you need to make a trade decision, you have no business with a trading account[/I][/B].”

However, his application of the concepts isn’t the only way to apply them so I’m “working” them to fit the action of the Asian session only because that’s the only time I have to trade. If there isn’t a “corrective” trend pattern in sight, I can still trade the fractal ABC waves in the direction of the higher timeframe movement. I’m also putting the fibs on the higher timeframe chart so their lines are much further apart on the 15m and works better for support & resistance.

For entries, when the stochs and cci’s are all resuming in the same direction after a fractal ABC type pullback (where C leg is greater than A leg? as per Walt), then the trigger is when price surpasses the previous candles high for a long, or low for a short, and the stop is below or above that candle. I’ll repeat this until I get too near to a fib line and wait to see if it bounces or breaks that line.

Then to manage the trade, I try to get to b/e around 20 pips, and then trail on a per candle basis.

hellogoodbye4201 · December 8, 2009, 2:03pm

i read through it and the only thing i really use, or could use, is the dual time frame momentum lol. i looked at my charts and maybe its just from having now experience in doing this but it’s im possible for me to spot a 5 wave trend or any correction so i just gave up on the whole fib thing and wave ideas

wrtm_19 · December 8, 2009, 3:01pm

Sweet_Pip:

I don’t find Miners strategies complicated, but I do find drawing all those fibs…price & time ones…rather tedious and really clutters up my charts where I seem to lose sight of the wave action. Miner does chastise one for complaining …“[B][I]If you’re not willing to do the work necessary for the information you need to make a trade decision, you have no business with a trading account[/I][/B].”

However, his application of the concepts isn’t the only way to apply them so I’m “working” them to fit the action of the Asian session only because that’s the only time I have to trade. If there isn’t a “corrective” trend pattern in sight, I can still trade the fractal ABC waves in the direction of the higher timeframe movement. I’m also putting the fibs on the higher timeframe chart so their lines are much further apart on the 15m and works better for support & resistance.

For entries, when the stochs and cci’s are all resuming in the same direction after a fractal ABC type pullback (where C leg is greater than A leg? as per Walt), then the trigger is when price surpasses the previous candles high for a long, or low for a short, and the stop is below or above that candle. I’ll repeat this until I get too near to a fib line and wait to see if it bounces or breaks that line.

Then to manage the trade, I try to get to b/e around 20 pips, and then trail on a per candle basis.

Cool! I’ll try to post my set ups in here. I’ll start with larger timeframes to have the time to consider all the facts with patience.

This surely adds rock solid information to support Gartleys/butterflies.

wrtm_19 · December 8, 2009, 3:18pm

Talking about EW not sure if this one qualifies for one, since I have a bounce in the middle of my 3 leg, but I’m going to demo try with this one.

Fib extensions, APP etc, all coincide for a wave 5. Already a momentum crossover, but I’m not considering the whole factors. Let’s see what happens.

Even if it’s a correction it has a long way up to the 50% - 61.8% internal retracements of the last wave.

I forgot to tell that it’s in the cable 1hr chart.

Suggestions are welcome, specially regarding the validity of the Ew pattern.

hellogoodbye4201 · December 8, 2009, 5:32pm

thats why i have a hard time making 5 wave patterns, theyre not 5 waves lol it doesnt make sense to me. it seems like a guestimate type of thing like enter around here and exit around here, move stop to about this area

edit

is there a way to add two indicators to one sub graph in MT4?

Sweet_Pip · December 8, 2009, 6:10pm

Hello hello,
It’s pretty much a guestimate just like every other system out there…lol. The thing is to look for an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows, or downtrends making lower highs and lower lows. Once price fails to do that, that’s where I draw my fibs to/from. Sometimes it 5 waves, sometimes it’s not, but within that trend structure there is generally a convergence of fib levels which gives a solid entry area. If you’re having trouble seeing it, it’s either because you need more practice, or it just isn’t there and you’ll need to look elsewhere or wait for it…lol.

To add two or more indicator into one subwindow, you can drag n drop them into the same window. If it doesn’t work, in one of the indicators parameters is an option to “apply to first indicator” that you need to select.

Hope that helps