Yes I understand what you say, sometimes it’s tricky but once you get used to it, it becomes an easy task. Not that easy for me yet, but it certainly gets better in time.
Not everytrend is formed by 12345 legs, sometimes more sometimes less, but in this case I think it would be very likely to get a good profit from the actual 5 from A leg, not mine, the one that I skipped, and then trade the continuation, or wait for the new correction, the one I entered.
All of this of course in theory! This is my first practice after reading the book, so you testing.
Regarding your mt4 question I don’t use it so I’ll skip that part.
I just realized you’re trying to countertrend trade the end of wave 5?!! :eek: That could be detrimental.
What I understand to be the higher probability setup is to wait for the trend to end…whether it be 5 or not, then look for a corrective AB from which to project the end of wave C. End of wave C then usually resumes the trend with a much larger profit potential, and project wave 5 for a profit target.
I’d recommend just keep doing what you’re doing with the gartleys & butterflies as per the 30 pips a day thread because the pattern is the same as in this. To what you already do, you could add the 3rd fib set, the multi timeframe momentum setup (may help when there are more than 1 possible Ds), and the time cycles to see if it gives you any better success/consistency.
What still needs to be covered here that might be helpful as well is the entries, based on the candlesticks/bars, as per Miner.
One of my objectives with this strategy is to adapt it to what I currently do, well as you said there is not much to adapt since patterns are indeed part of the strategy.
I’m going to start covering cycles and all of the other aspects, wich are supposed to add also more probabilities, and until I have some conclusions I’ll tell the guys that follow the 30 pips a day thread. I hope this could improve everyone’s performance.
I like the entries and money management he suggests. Even though we don’t catch the wicks, I agree that we need confirmation of the move in our favor, and has a logic way of locking pips, a side I have still trouble with.
I still have a question,
I understand the strategy is meant to put you in the continuation of the trend, then I don’t quite understand why he talks about the way of projecting wave 5.
Why I ask this?
Because, the big profit potential is located right after the completion of a correction.
Wave number 5 is supposed to be very limited, hence has no benefit trading it (or at least that’s what I understood), and in order to spot it we need already a the first 4 waves.
It’s not even useful as a limit since we don’t set a profit target, actually he doesn’t establish profit targets at all, only trailing stops.
So I’m not sure what am I missing here. :rolleyes:
I believe what you’re missing has to do with the fractal nature of waves. For example, on a daily chart a new up trend is starting at the end of a previous wave C. Now we move down to the hourly and we trade the first wave. This wave can have 5 waves itself before reversing down into corrective wave 2…where we can either take profit, or ride it out. Either way, we’d then like to know where corrective wave 2 (which may have 3 corrective waves in it) will end so we can catch the resuming trend wave 3, and this continues up.
What we’d like to know is when wave 5 on the daily will likely end because the trend may not resume and the corrective move on the daily will be bigger than wave 2 or 4 on the hourly (or it could become a reversal instead)…which could take away a lot of profit earned thus far if we try to ride it out.
If you go back to Miner’s book you can see this. On page 21 fig 2.6, that’s the hourly chart of the bullish trend section dated Feb 10 -23 of the daily chart fig 2.5 on page 20. You can see how the hourly chart has at least 5 waves before topping out at the end of the same wave on the daily, and then reverses back down quite far.
Here’s another visual of that concept. The black waves would be considered the the higher timeframe, the colored ones the lower timeframe.
Dear Sweetpips,
this message is just an exception to my absence here.
It’s just because I hope to have an answer from you.
I find very interesting your post some ones ago about the mtf stochs.
You say you use on the 15 min the 8,3,3 settings, and then the 80,16,16 which are supposed to represent the 4hr equivalent. But actually, being the 4 hr 16 times the 15 minutes (4 quarters an hour, and then 4 times one hour), wouldn’t it be 128, 48, 48 the corresponding setting for the 4 hr on the 15 minutes timeframe?
Hi Fabio…yes you’re right :o oops…lol. I have been playing around with different settings…sometimes 8,3,3, sometimes 5,3,3…depending on the pair. With 5, I get 80, but don’t know where I got 16 from…probably too many late nights and not enough focus…lol.
I’m re-reading the examples, and I haven’t found an example for this in current charts, but would it be ok to trade corrections of the larger timeframe, like trends in the short one?
Hourly chart same pair has just finished an 12345 downtrend and is about to finish a possible correction, we wait here for a bearish momentum reversal expecting to catch the downtrend. Am I right? I¡ll try to spot all the other factors before this movement takes place.
Regarding the last 1 hr aud/usd chart, three of the four main conditions have been completed.
Momentum. Waiting for a bearish momentum reversal to trade in the direction on the main chart bearish momentum.
Price. Price is potentially reaching the end of wave C. wich is greater in time and/or price that waves 2 and 4.
We have price between the 50% and th 61.8% internal retracements of the main tend.
Almost reaching 161.8% of the app of wave A
Also it at the 161.8% external retracement of wave B
Pattern Position. End of a correction for a continuation of the main trend.
I still need to spot time cycles but since it’s going to take me some time, I decided to post the three conditions first.-
The time projections for this particular possible C wave are as follows,
I don’t have time bands yet (don’t want to have a total mess on my chart), but, regarding fib time projections, price is still well before the 38.2%, so there’s still time for wave C to develop.
The only alternate price projection we have within the 38.2% - 61.8% is the 161.8%. Now that has reduced the time target considerably. I have marked that possible time zone in darker blue.
Ok now I have a problem here. I already have my time band spotted. It’s the space between the first green vertical line, and the second red vertical line.
The problem is that this overlap occurs well before the 38.2% time retracement, wich is the minimum in time for the completion of wave C
Price is currently within the time band, but there is no overlap with fib zone
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